Kentucky Derby weekend is upon us courtesy of $15 mint juleps, zillion dollar -only worn once- fem’ hats, sheik sundresses and thoroughbreds turning it loose at my old Kentucky Home down in Churchill Downs on Saturday afternoon at ~6:34pm o’clock on N.B.C.
Derby fans rejoice as here is your preview of what pretty well everyone I know is calling: “a wide open field”. And the betting odds seem to reflect this, as nobody was listed as any better or any lower than bet one to win six (6:1) on the Monday race week line. Which is nearly unheard of less than six days removed from the first leg of the Triple Crown. As this all conspires to tell us one of two things… this is a very average to no better than barely good three-year old crop of pony’s; or there is a sapphire in the bluegrass somewhere here. As there is surely value galore for at least one horse in this twenty horse Kentucky Derby field. Read on to find out, which…
Race #12, Kentucky Derby (Grade I), Post Time (6:34 pm EDT)
Purse $2,000,000, For 3yos, at 1 1/4 mile
(Dirt)
In boxing we say that: “styles make fights”, in the sport of kings: “pace makes the race” and yet oddly enough, the track betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby in each of the past four years. This is the longest streak of favoritism winners since the 1970s! Although this year I’m left wondering if this is the year that… gates set, fates?
Notice the speed in the auxiliary gate… if you ask me -and you did via reading these very words- if you ask me, having three good horse all line-up side-by-side-by-side (or: McCraken, Tapwit, Irish War Cry); really, truly, madly, deeply … makes this one screwy looking Derby to track; much less to ‘cap {sic: handicap}. As all three could break well and set a destroying pace every bit as much as all three could be no better than a stopgap measure to lottsa trafficking and/or congestion from the main-gate deluge at the bell itself. Making either/or a very tough damn call.
Nevertheless, this makes me wonder if one of the two more quality looking pony’s down in the main-gate itself do not enjoy a better trip for (seemingly) enjoying less combative or at least less contested pole-positions (enter: Always Dreaming and Gunnevera).
Accordingly, ^that^ makes this an inside-out Kentucky Derby | or an outside-in one. As one of these two gates will ruin itself and clear the way for the other gate to takeover. As I see four or five; maybe even six pretty good horses here which leaves one wondering if greatness will truly emerge —as this 2017 A.D. Triple Crown season wears on I mean?
To further mentally compound fracture any and all analysis of ^that^, the Louisville, Ky. area forecast is calling for rain tomorrow afternoon and that muddles any prognosticating all the more. All of which conspires to make this 2017 Kentucky Derby a docent or a rather subjective one indeed. It is however science-fact objectively known that that following horses have experience slipping and slopping along… Empire Classic, Looking At lee, Gormely, Hence and Battle of Midway –all own career wins in the rain. Whereas Irap, Sonnetter and Untrapped have at least run in the the rain at least once in their racing careers. After that the precipitation will be brand spanking new to the rest of the Kentucky Derby racing field.
***
Therefore, ergo, to wit, at least to me, the sprinting element of the Preakness and the grueling marathoner element of the Belmont make the middle and the final third of the Triple Crown much more lucrative indeed. Pace yourself gents; and your Derby wallet here, physical thoroughbred clarity is coming; fiscal patience via objective Beyer figure(s) sorting should be rewarded.
As there are (para)mutually sharper and more succinct bets to be
made -later on this season- here.
Kentucky Derby:
- Always Dreaming finishes in top 5 @-175
- Gunnevera finishes in top 5 @+15o
- Irish War Cry finishes in top 5 @-125
Loading ...Chruchill Downs=$167.52
“LETS GO!”
“Racing”
bourbonstreet**
thunder snow has run against some of best in world and gets first time lasix. he has run on grass dirt and synthetic tracks leave him out at your own risk.
The big $$$ Arab entry is a total wildcard each and every year.
Very very good? Or a very long way from home?
Tough one to call; though I can tell you it bugged on me they just got
Thunder Snow to Kentucky this week.
HTH’s and thanks for the reply,
b.street