#38 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #9 R.P.I. North Carolina:

Virginia Tech basketball travels down to Tobacco Road to take on big bad North Carolina basketball on the Thursday night ESPN flagship telecast at 8 o’clock.

The North Carolina Heels are a shinny looking 18 up and 3 down on the year and riding high checking in at 1st place in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings at 6-1 thus far. U.n.c. has been beaten by two traditional powerhouse ranked teams (#6 Kentucky 1oo-1o3 and #13 Indiana 67-76).  U.n.c. did get upset by fellow A.c.c. Georgia Tech 63-75 a little over a fortnight ago. U.n.c. does own two ranked wins vs. #16 Wisconsin 71-56 and in-conference #9 Florida State 96-83 just last week. However, U.n.c. is really good, they are still improving and yet they still seem to have a clunker of a game left in them …possibly, two. That rightfully said, U.n.c. is just a dickens of a match-up nightmare for Buzz and Co. down low, and nobody will want anything to do with these slightly limited though very large Heels once the pace of post-season play slows down in U.n.c.’s favor.

North Carolina Head Coach: Roy Allen Williams: 801–212 (.791) overall, and 383–111 (.775) at North Carolina.

Baller Williams lettered in basketball and baseball at T. C. Roberson High School in Asheville, NC all four years. In basketball, playing for Coach Buddy Baldwin, he was named all-county and all-conference for two years (1967 and 1968), all-western North Carolina in 1968 and served as captain in the North Carolina Blue-White All-Star Game. Williams has stated that Coach Baldwin was one of the biggest influences in his life. Williams went on to play on the freshman team at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and study the game under legendary coach Dean Smith. When Williams was a sophomore at Carolina, he asked Smith if he could attend his practices and would sit in the bleachers taking notes on Smith’s coaching. Williams also volunteered to keep statistics for Smith at home games and worked in Smith’s summer camps.

After coaching golf and hoops in high school for five years; in 1978, Williams came back to the University of North Carolina and served as an assistant to Coach Dean Smith until 1988. During his tenure as assistant coach, North Carolina won the NCAA national championship in 1982, the first for Smith (and Roy); and second for North Carolina. One of Williams’ more notable events came as assistant coach when he became instrumental in recruiting a nobody who was already cut from his H.S. team, some kid named… Jordan. After that, taking over at Kansas, his Jayhawk career was riddled with wins (28 per year on average!); conference titles (9); and more a few recruiting foibles as well. Since getting home to U.n.c. coach Williams has notched two national championships (2oo5) and (2008). Coach Williams is the only basketball coach in NCAA history to have 35o or more victories at two NCAA D-1 schools {sic: Kansas and North Carolina}. Coach Williams is the only coach in NCAA history to have led two different programs to at least four Final Fours each; wow. In 2oo7, Coach Williams was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame. Coach Williams’s teams have made the post-season 29 outta 30 times. He was won a stunning 15 different coach of the year awards nationally or in-conference combined. He has won 23 total regular season or tournament conference titles and put 39 kids into the Association. Coach Williams chairs a $10 mil’ dollar U.n.c. basketball endowment and Roy had surgery September 19, 2012 to remove a tumor from his right kidney; God Bless.

U.n.c. at a glance:

• #1 in rebounding margin (+14.2 rpg)!
• 3rd in assist (18.3 apg).
• 4th in scoring O (89.4 ppg).
• 7th most FTA’s cumulative (578 FTA’s).
• 31st in steals (8.2 spg).
• 52nd in FG percentage D allowed (40.3%).
• Only one category ranked worse than average (turnovers=246th).

Heel Returning Starters=3 (almost 3.5).

North Carolina Strengths:

• There are those who would connote that the true alpha talent in the A.c.c. is one #44 of North Carolina, or Justin Jackson his ownself. Jackson is a rangy smooth looking quintessential S/F who is basically built like the Iceman himself at 6’8” and a sleek or a downright lean looking 21o junior year lbs. Coming out of prep/home-schooling, Jackson only swept all three home schooled national player of the year awards when he won the: Maravich Award (2o11), the Sullivan Award (2o12) and the Jefferson Award (2o13) as the top home schooled player in the country in back-to-back-to-back or threepeating consecutive seasons. No small feat even off the traditional public school circuiting path. He won a F.I.B.A. Americas U-16 gold medal championship in 2o11 and was named basically all-Texas anything you can garner. Right now at U.n.c., Jackson is dropping you a team leading easy looking 18.5 points per game to go with 5.o boards, on 2.8 apg, via 46% overall and 40% from beyond the arc. Only remaining knocks I can see would be… although it looks like that 40% has cleaned up his lack of range nag’ smartly enough; Jackson’s defense could be more, as an organic coverage over-match for most Wings/SF’s at the D-1 level. And if anything, his O looks so smoothly effortless, you almost feel like he could score more, to boot. And make no mistake, with the added depth on his J, he can literally score from anywhere on the floor right now. He also says IF he could go back in time, he’d want to witness the birth of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ; an “no”, me neither on ever reading that in any baller’s profile before now. God Bless and Godspeed @Jackson.

  

• 6′, 19o lb. junior year Joel Berry II is a pretty nifty looking Pt.Guard for U.n.c. This Joel Berry comes with a not so subtle whiff of: “clutch” to his game. As he has histrionics of elevating his game on the bigger stage; don’t believe me? Than just ask his 2016 A.c.c. Tourney M.v.p. trophy, first; then ask his all-Final Four honors, next. The book here says that J.B. is actually more parts Lead-G and less parts home position One (or Pt.G.). That he spent the off-season working on his shooting range (now 43% from downtown); and on figuring out how to: “play, smarter”. Can’t say I’ve read that mental-game summertime battle cry very often, have you? A second best 15.5 ppg and the team lead at 3.9 apg does not suck; neither does 49% from the floor and the team lead at 89% from the charity stripe. All that from a so-so scholastic baller, who was only the 1st player in Florida high school history to win Florida’s Mr. Basketball award three times and Joel  also won Gatorade Player of the Year honors three times, and just the sixth player to do that in any state in the freakin’, Union; wow! Did win the regional Nike Peach Jam (Dunk) contest; and has u-17 gold medal of his own to boot. And oh yes, this Berry II is the prime Heel defensive stopper, and that makes him a Pro’, probably an Association professional at that.

  

• Final year one #3, Kennedy Meeks is a dawgg of a 6’10”, 266 lb. match-up problems -plural, for us- just waiting for a  post place to happen at P/F. 13 inside ppg with the team mark at 9.6 caroms per contest and a swat, all conspire to say so. Which is pretty fair to middling work from a kid with a history of left-knee sprains and illnesses over the years; Godspeed. The book here read that Meeks arrived in rather meek looking physical condition in terms of cardio pulmonary fitness and needed some love from Jenny Craig three seasons ago. The book now reads that Kennedy elected to get himself in-gear and himself in shape last year. Accordingly, he is now a rugged post wit the gun show caliber to back that up. Meeks is a classic paint player who does not have a lot of range on his game, as he reminds one a scosche of a Rasheed Wallace with far less range in his current physical terms. Meeks was a 2011 state titlist for West Charlotte (Nc.), and he’s been a three year honor roll student on top of that. If Meeks can find just a bit more footwork and a little more physical prowess body wise, he’s probably an export overseas Pro’ on rebounding/post-defending alone.
• Isaiah Hicks is yet another banger upfront for the Heels down-low. All 6’1o”, 252 lbs. worth of “sleepy” Sam Perkins looking him! Seriously, I thought they must be kinfolk prima facie. 13.1 ppg with 5.4 rpg, a block and all on a team pace setting 60.1% overall is pretty good work from your third/forth offensive option if you can get it. Hicks was only the Associated Press Player of the Year in North Carolina in 2o1o when he picked up a state championship for his monsta looking 30/30 games (pts./rebs) troubles. Hicks was also said to be a pretty solid T&F (track-n-field) and football player in high school as well. The one rub I could find here is that Hicks rebounds smaller than he looks, at least at times and yet his 84% FT-shooting is seldom seen by a Big these days.
• Do you see a trend here gent(s)? This is a BIG, well filled in, frontcourt thumping good team in the Stephanie Curry fb.ethos backcourt small-ball heavy era. And they are pretty well upperclassmen heavy on experience in addition to all of that.

North Carolina Weaknesses:

• Brice Johnson’s (18 ppg, 10.4 rpg) departure hurt, to be sure, although don’t cry for U.n.c. too much here. Plenty of talent and actual real live experience did actually return.
• I suppose you could nag that U.n.c. is so very frontcourt heavy and not quite as talented in backcourt terms; nonetheless, that’s going quantum mechanics on hair-splitting terms.
• Outside shooting however is a bit of a foible -if not an outright concern- here. As U.n.c. could stand a bit more floor spacing per better outside gunnery to free those internal not yet fossilized Jurassic Park looking bigs to do (even more), work. As 37% overall could be better, in very particular when you court no less than 14 guys shooting between o-36% from deep in the modern era.

Heel Bench: (depth=4-6 deep)

This is a pretty dang deep, talented, and semi well distributed (G’s/F’s) combo mix Heel bench; and this just in, rain is rumored to be wet. As at least a couple of these guys would start for frontcourt Cro-Magnon starving Virginia Tech basketball.

Theo Pinson, Tony Bradley and Nate Britt lead the way here as U.n.c. subs go. T-Fr., -and recently concussed, God Bless- Tony Bradley is only listed as the A.c.c. Newcomer of the Year by one of my preseason magazines, although only two other Atlantic Coast schools have that, problem. And believe you me, at a power conference turnkey prefab 6’10”, 239 lbs. this prolific scholastic inside scorer is about as ready as can be. 8 ppg with 6 boards on 54% and a swat is just 14 mpg is a damn load! Although the upperclassman heavy U.n.c. frontcourt is so loaded for bear than there are not many post minutes to spare –not even for the Gatorade Player of the Year and Florida’s Mister Basketball (2o16). Only knock is that Bradley needs to add strength; and yah; believe it or not, he does look almost senior prom skinny/weak at pushing up ~24o lbs. Though this kid probably gives you 20/10 at Blacksburg right now; as he’s that dang crispy; already.

Third year Theo Pinson is a 6’6”, 2o5 lb. S/F 2-Guard ‘tweener with something of a distributing Point-Forward type rep’. That and a need to work on his outside J and he is just five games back from a busted fifth metatarsal in his right-foot; God Bless. Mister Basketball North Carolina 2o14 with two state titles and one gold medal to show for it shows mad game, and 6.4 ppg with an impressive 5.6 rpg and a second best 3.7 apg speaks to his Pt.Forward offensive quarterbacking acumen. 42% from the floor and 22% from long-distance speaks to his need to work on that shot; although this is an interesting all-around baller; make no mistake on that. Nate Britt is a 6’1”, 175 lb. senior year backcourt glue guy who could have transferred and at least started -if not starred- somewhere else. Nate is a passer and a defender as he leads the Heels in steals (1.4 spg) in mere 18 mins. of P.T. (playing time). 5 ppg, 2 rebounds and 2 assists don’t hurt; although Nate is the Heels go to defensive backcourt stopper, plain and simple on that.

Illation, conclusion (s) and OPT digits:

Number of Heel's who could start @Tech=6-10?

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is… it is gonna take Virginia Tech basketball’s A+++ game and a C- (or less) night from U.n.c. for the Hokies to have any R.A.T.T. shot at this one out on the sky-blue road.

---

Which is not quite to say that I view U.n.c. as unbeatable, they ain’t… because as much as their frontcourt is our worst match-up of the year, all by its ownself; the Heel’s backcourt contribution quotient is chasing their heavy frontcourt tilit even as I type.

Now, to be fair, even though I did not see any James Worthy’s upfront down low for U.n.c., I did see a number of Sam Perkins and even a latent or declining Bob McAdoo or two to extend the L.A. Laker roundball metaphor.

 ***

That said, let’s put the A.c.c. rubber to the visiting Hokie road and see how much statistical ore we can objectively data mine first…

• U.n.c. is +1 on rest. EDGE=Heels.
• Overall on the year, U.n.c. was -remarkably enough- only 10th’s of a point ahead in FG% margin (+o.9%), VT is actually ahead on 3 point% margin (+1.6%), and U.n.c. is ½ a percent better at the charity stripe. The Heel’s are however +13.2 rpg superior in rebounding margin for the season. EDGE=Heels. on the glass, alone.
• The Home/Away offensive splits favor VT by 1-2% in every category straight across, however; U.n.c. is almost 14% better on D overall and 12.2% better from downtown. Or in other words, VT must summon its alpha visiting defensive effort of the year to even have a shot at upsetting the Heels in this one. EDGE=Heels.
• In most recent five game terms, U.n.c. is a whooping 10.4% better from range on O and over +15 better in rebounding margin. IF, that recent Hokie 3-point shooting funk holds sway, things could get ugly, here.  EDGE=Heels.
• …all that and our handy dandy friend the so-called Forum Guide of Graham Houston fame says… U.n.c. will only win by 19.4 ppg on ave. in this A.c.c. match-up.

Or in other words, and to paraphrase Robert Browning, even if U.n.c. is not technically beyond our reach they are likely beyond our grasp. As we will need a brilliant Hokie backcourt effort;’ a chilly Heel backcourt effort; and basically no O&M foul trouble whatsoever to have a shot.

The visiting odds on that are slim and none and slim just got drunk, fell down, and then threw up. Because if things go to forum here, North Carolina basketball might just pump Buzz and company good and hard down inside on Thursday night.

(93% confidence interval)
Virginia Tech=69, North Carolina=94

“LETS GO!”

“Hokies!”

 bourbonstreet**

V.A.D.A. approved