Virginia Tech football Miami preview

#32 R.P.I. Miami @  #37 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:

Virginia Tech football hosts ESPN, the Bristol broadcasting company at 7pm on a made for (national) telly audience as about seven point Lane Stadium favorites vs. Miami.

This after both Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division football teams were beaten last week –and the week before by arch rival Florida State if you are the ‘canes. And this yet again segues us effortlessly into this Today’s word of the day…

Today’s word of the day is…

pluck

(plŭk)

Head Coach: Mark Richt: age=56, (4-2,  year; 149-53 overall); has a bit of a blue-collar worker-bee rep’, for being an ex-Cane Qb once himself under for Baltimore Colt/Miami Dolphin great Qb Earl Morrall. Also brings a pretty decent recruiting rep’ to go with an epic fund-raiser tag; ergo, works (very) well with deep pocket Alum’s. Can coach an O as his entire coaching resume` is offensive in nature. Said to be family man who despises over-signing and honors his 4-year commitments; i.e. very, Frank, ‘esque.

Seriously… in 2011 they (Mr. & Mrs. Richt) sold their Georgia lake house, valued at nearly $2 million, just to be able to contribute more to charity. They have also taken several mission trips abroad and adopted two children from the Ukraine. Coach Richt is calling his own plays this year for the first time since ’07.

God Bless the Richt’s!!!

Miami 2015 record: 8 up 5 down and 5-3 in the A.c.c.

The U Defense: (starters back=6)

• Total D=13th, 30 in rushing defense, 25 in passing defense.
• The New defensive coordinator is a keeper in one: Manny Diaz. Said to have a scheme that rewards attacking. Plays the ball not the man. Tries to go turnover forcing heavy. Six of his top-7 tacklers returned. His dad was the Miami Mayor!
• #1 in Tackles for a Loss (TFL)!!! 14th in Qb’s sacked!
• 4th best in scoring D (14 ppg allowed).
• 9th best in Turnover Margin +1 tpg.
• D is 12th in Explosiveness.

  

• dLine is 1st best in Havoc! However… this is a very tight front-4. Athletic and sizey; and downright disruptive as hell. Will hit you, early, on-time and late. This is a rough your Qb up bunch. dLine did bite on hard-counts on film.
  (INJURY quotient: ~75%)
• Lb’s are 95 in Havoc and basically #1 in inexperience. Chris said it in his preview; though I gotta say it again. Three 18 year old rookie year voters in two weeks time; straight across: t-fresh…t-fresh…t-fresh. WOW! Lb’s do do toggle their depth off the LOS. Making them hard to scrape or fold to when blocking the second-layer.
  (INJURY quotient: ~67%)
• The Secondary is 89th Havoc. Safety looks a little stronger and surely deeper than Cb does on film. Though this is an experienced and downright solid hind-4. The differential between Fs/Rover and Cb’s is relative. Note the Cb’s line-up angular, at about 45° to give them a mutually Wr and Qb LOS (line-of-sight); I like that; and helps them play the ball. Secondary did seem available to some longer sideline works off of play-actions. Lottsa zoning here, even leaving the Slot-man uncovered off the LOS sometimes. Lottsa staggering of coverage depths between Fs and Ss.
  (INJURY quotient: ~25%)
• …or in other words, from what I just saw, the U can play a 4-7 look all game with up to seven in coverage as the front-4 is simply; brutal. Best we will see all year! IF, healthy; as that stud front-4 is really beat-up coming into this one. Diaz had a blitzy reputation for the Mississippi State Bulldogs and he may have to do even more of that with those dLinemen injuries in tow. Speedy pursuit happy D, can over-pursue some things being in such a hurry.

Defensive letter-grade:

Hurricane Offense: (returning starters=9)

• Total O=57th, 52nd in the pass and 63rd on the rush.
• Only 95th in all important Red Zone O.
• 5th best in TFL allowed, 24th in sacks allowed.
• O is #2 in Explosiveness!
• 10th least in solo tackles. (takes peeps plural to tackle da U)
• t-Jr. year 6’4” 215 lb. Brad Kaaya is a Qb who was never bad and has steadily improved down on So.Beach. 58% as a rook; up to 62% right now says so. As he has slowly cut down on INT’s, thing is, he cut down on passing TD’s as well. Perhaps throwing the baby out with the bathwater as  he went. The VHT (very highly touted) L.a. so.Cal state champion escapee has some very high point passing career games. With ten contests in excess of 295 yards passing. Although he has some vanilla to pedestrian or even off days as well. With six throw-days of 176 or less. So it is hell or high-water with this streaky Jr. Pivot; though make no mistake, we catch the hot-handed Kaaya and Miami will be a very tough nut to crack. Gutty kid, has played through some dings and missed a few games with some dents. Has a bum shoulder coming into this one and does love the HR throw. 74% visiting passer this year; although his throw game has dropped by 7% since the throwing shoulder injury. As his Comp% diminishes by nearly 12% on 3rd downs and steadily by the quarter. And the whispers say a broken tooth and a concussion as well, -God Bless.
  (INJURY quotient: ~3oo%)

  

• Rb’s t-soph., 5’9” 2o5 lb. Mark Walton (5.6 ypc, 8 TD’s) and third-string all-A.c.c. 5’9” 200 lb. Jr. Joe Yearby (6.8 per rush with 6 TD’s) are a yet to be sorted out Rb1 problem that every other team would love to have. Home grown Miami Central twice state titlist Yearby only rushed for over 5,300 in high school as a can’t miss ***** (five-star) Rb. Walton in fact got one Florida state championship of his own as these two are very similar looking on film. Just enough power with plenty of speed alike. And they sub in-out to keep each other fresh. Additionally, the ‘Canes have no less than three Tb’s with three runs >64 yards already! As there is big time BIG-play HR hitting power from the Rb slot here.  p.s. Gus Edwards is a 6’1” 233 lb. Jr. season bruising Sherman Tank. And I’m wondering if we see more of him?
  (INJURY quotient: ~5o%)
• The Cane Wr corps is a beautiful mix of stretch ballers –three of them with more than 17 per catch. Then two possession grabbers with lots of hand-talent and no less than three starting caliber Te’s. Surprisingly, three possibly Sunday ready pass catchers all returned to school and forgo(ed) turning Pro’ a year early. This is a deep and very talent catch cadre of ballers. And there were a lot of medium and beyond throws on film here. Such is a fun place to go play pitch-n-catch if Se/Fl is your position. Nonetheless, it is conspicuous that only one ‘Cane pass-catcher has more than 1 TD so far (Wr, Stacy Coley, who is hurting, with six).
  (INJURY quotient: ~25%)
• The ‘Cane oLine however was a bit of mess last year. Said to have had a messy spring and August camp as well. Looks better than that to me on film however; although gone are the (Al) Golden era T.Rex Jurassic Park sized oLinemen as well. All five guys returned; all five were upperclassmen -so experience is not an issue here- and when you look at Chris’ Pro draft rankings in his preview; how bad can this bunch be? There is said to be a new starter at right-Ot. The whispers also say depth is lacking and the starting-5 may have to go the distance. Run blocking was superior to pass-protect here. As edge pass-protect was the most wanting of all. Assignments and blitz recognition were bugbears in keeping Kaaya erect and clean in the cup. Oline does pull and trap pretty well and you’d have to think they will test Ken, Nigel and Walker’s health with that.
  (INJURY quotient: ~2o%)
• More of a Pro look O with some under-C looks and some true Te’s, with 2 or 3 wide. Not as much facebook 2016 spread action here. Old-school I formations that hit you with play-action sets if/when they get the ground troops moving forward first. Kaaya does have some reverse rolls and a lot of spin-moves to his game as well. Seems better in the pocket with feet set than he does on the move. Though Miami does have the Top-2 Rb’s on the field in this one, and if they get going early…
• 45% run:pass 55% mix.

Offensive letter-grade:

‘Canes Special Teams: (both return)
5’9” 180 lb.  Jr., Michael Badgley is Miami’s place-Kicker by way of O&M pipeline prep-school Fork Union Military Academy. Michael only set a school record with 25 FG’s made last year. Although he is currently well off that pace and down at two outta three for leg-swings so far this season. Has the school rec’ of a 57 long all-time ‘Cane make. Though seems more comfortable with a cap of about 50 yards when you look at his longitudinal stats. Michael is a Dean’s List member, .edu props per always on that. Was the #1 Kicker coming outta high school from 24/7. Has a very high torque very bendy plant on his approach to the spot of the FGA on film. Very high on torque! And you’d have to aim your block point a bit more out in front to avoid a surefire roughing the K penalty consequently. Oddly enough has missed five caterer P.A.T.’s so far.

The lankly looking 6’5” 210 lb. Sr. year former Florida transfer now Miami walk-on Justin Vogel has had a decent punting career. It’s not bad; he has a better than average leg; it’s just not on a world beating level so far. Vogel has taken two r-shirt years, one for the Gators and one per transferring. I never knew you could do that? Can buy beer. Has a career long of 64 and has a higher release point -per his shooting-G height- to boot. Net punting is a sporty 24th best thanks to Vogel’s booming hang-time. Though the U’s punt coverage a pedestrian 66th whereas KO coverage is better at 47th. The return game is a flashy 18th best on punt returns and yet a inert 108th best on KO returns. Miami is #1 in punts blocked with two; and the U is 4th best in kicks blocked with three snuffed out already this campaign. The U however is a very user-friendly 124th worst with a crippling four blocked kicks allowed so far! And 94th worst in punt-protect with one punt block allowed. Go fig’?!?

Special Teams letter-grade: (C—-, could be an A too if this Kicker gets right and Miami cleans up all those blocks)

X-factor(s):

• motive: BIG divisional contest for each; both teams are down after tough L’s. motive=???
• weather: some chance of rain; though generally favorable. No EDGE.
• health: both teams courting a buncha hurts; though the ‘Canes might, be slightly more beat-up. Modest edge=VT.
• penalties: Miami is 1o6th in penalty yardage. Edge=VT.
• intangibles: Stacy Searels knows the Hokie oLine and you can bet your bottom dollar he’s told the Cane D everything he knows. Edge=TheU.
• fatigue: 4 games in 20 days for da U, and 3 games in 12 days -yet at home- for VT. Edge=VT.

 

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is… hell if I know?!?

And this time I can freakin’ prove it, too!
{/laughs, insert here______check}

As this is one damn hard game to call. An even, pick ’em, a toss-up, flip a coin type game and if you do not like the result, flip it best two outta three. That’s how close this one looks objective and subjectively is alike. Check it out…

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On the one hand -and stop me if you’ve heard this before- Da U is back! Again; or did they leave again; already? I’m never sure with the U and neither is anyone else. As for all I know the U could still be playing Florida State -thrice- and therefore still trying to get over their seemingly annual Seminole hangover yet again. Or they could just as easily be ready to play; and they were playing some seemingly smart(er) football to begin the year until October the 8th and one seemingly gimmie swing of the PA.T. leg; happened.

Then we see the nearly unanimous following metrics entering this 7pm contest…

• ~4′, that’s right at four feet, separate these two in Total O!
• ~5′; that’s five feet that separates these two in Passing O!
• And just about 4”, that’s right at about four inches that separates these two in Rushing O!
• Or this just in: rain is rumored to be wet and these offenses might as well be Siamese Twins.

Total D is pretty dang close, itself, as virtually two whole 1st-downs or about 20 yards separates these two there. (Va.Tech is technically 20.8 ypg better)

Then we see two pretty dang insalubrious injury-reports courtesy of two mentally worn-down and physically beat-up looking football teams. With an exhaustive seven football games in 32 days combined between ’em! Which is borderline abusive if you ask me and you did via reading these words; and yet someone has to win this football game. So who will that someone be?

Generally speaking, I’d say the harder football team, with the most salt in their blood, the most mud in their eye, and the most grit in their teeth will win this one.

***

These two teams both have talent, both are hurting and both are work in progress. And yet then I finally found this objective statistical peg upon which to hang my OPT digits hat… The U has worsened by precisely 187.3 yards per game of total yardage in their last three games. Miami’s Total O has gone into ~a 90 retreat and the Hurricane’s total D has soften by nearly the same amount. That, plus I’m hoping for a plucky home-crowd to pull dear ole V.P.I. through, somehow, someway; in a football contest that absolutely could go either way. And one that I further expect to start to snowball and get away from one of these two clubs during a New River Valley respite of Indian Summer in October.

One of these two is just too mentally worn-down and physically beat-up; therefore, one of these two will spit the late game bit and leave us with a final margin that does not show how close, for how long, this one truly was.

upset Index=45.5%

Virginia Tech=33, Miami of Florida=16

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**

V.A.D.A. approved