Virginia Tech football North Carolina preview

 #25 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #12 R.P.I. North Carolina:

Virginia Tech football -now nationally ranked at #25- travels to face likewise nationally ranked #17 North Carolina this weekend at 3:30pm on A.b.c./ESPN2 and simulcast on ESPN3. In what could very well be a soggy bottom precipitous day? Which segues us neatly and rapidly into today’s word of the day…tar-heel-logo

Today’s word of the day is… elemental.

el·e·men·tal

(ĕl′ə-mĕn′tl)

adjective.

  1. Of, relating to, or being an element.
  2. Fundamental or essential; basic. Of or relating to fundamentals; elementary.
  3. Constituting an integral part; inborn.
  4. Of such character as to resemble a force of nature in power or effect
  5. See what I mean? (Presuming this Hurricane does hit | may St.Matthew bless!)

Head Coach:  Herbert Lawrence “LarryFedora: age=54 (like N.Saben, does not look it, either), 40-22 @U.n.c.,  4-1 this year; and 74-41 overall.

Larry has a rep’ for Spread Offenses, as a former standout Wr at D-III Austin (Tx.) College and as the former standout coach at Tx. High School football factory powerhouse Garland, as well. Highly innovative recruiter… author of the so-called: “Freak Show” or nighttime in-stadium recruit audition for ONLY the **** or ***** most elite U.n.c. recruiting targets! Coach Fedora even scores players on accountability, and even on team-bonding activities. (FAR out!)

2015 record:  11 up  3 down and 8-1 in the Atlantic Coast

North Carolina Defense: (starters back=6)

  • Total D=1o5th, Run D=116th, Throw D=59th.
  • 38th best in Explosiveness.
  • 12th best in 3rd down conversions.
  • dLine 60th in Havoc, Linebacking 79th in Havoc, Secondary 115th in Havoc.
  • 60th in Qb’s Sacked and 82nd in Tackles for a Loss (TFL) inflicted. (which really ain’t half bad; considering their more containment oriented D)
  • Speedy forty-three base D (4-3) with a refugee early 1990’s Miami bend though don’t break and out-athlete you philosophy to it. As this D tries to keep everything in front of it; or rather they basically play a full time umbrella set. D will yield yards between the 20’s due to softer man looks, then try to tighten up in the red-zone and force a suddenly aggressive misQ. (very interesting defensive mindset swap mentally in pure applied sports psych terms)

    50-50 Safety deep umbrella 4-3 base
    50-50 Safety deep umbrella 4-3 base
  • BIG, burly, blocker stuffing dLine. Not overly experienced. All 6’3” or more — all 279 lbs. or more.
  • Two Lb’s who accounted for more than 210 total tackles, 13.5 TFL and four INT’s are gone. ‘dre Smith and Cayson Collins headline an athletic second tier that lacks experience; not speed. Their run fills however are very ‘Tua ‘esque at times. Too wide, or they simply just get blocked. Did see some 2nd-layer bunch sets (read: all within one of the shoulders of the Ot-box; and with a Safety even cheating up as a Bandit). This bunch look sure invites outside running; the rain however will not. And U.n.c. must super trust their second-layer speed to align like this. Did also see the old Hank Stram arrowhead Linebacking look and the U.n.c. (Mike-Lb=tip). The Heel ‘backers are a good yard to 4’ closer to the Line-of-Scrimmage (LOS); than you will see in most other more traditional forty-three sets as well.
  • Secondary features a lotta manning underneath and not one, two Safeties playing deep halves or basically two centerfielders as the Major League play-offs get underway. The hind-4 returns three starters. Fs (Donnie Miles) is a human tackling machine. The Ss is at least a senior , and both Cb’s finished in the Top-5 in the A.c.c. in passes defended last year; so the edges are lock-down set. Cb’s are aggressive on the LOS (line-of-scrimmage), they bump-n-run and jam a lot. Though I do not see how these deeper halves of Safeties can stand the quick-hitting Fu’fense.  Per this deeper toggle, they are outta the quick-hitting play by vertical definition. (so don’t be surprised if they are moved forward just for VT). 97 combined starts in the hind-4 here!
  • Not the best or most physical shoulder violence form tackling team I’ve ever scouted. Should be some Y.A.C. (yards after contact) here. U.n.c is pretty cute with upward ball strikes downfield to try to strip the football from underneath. D even has trouble getting lined-up properly on film at times pre-snap. There is talnet here, however; this is a drone style or monitoring type defense.

Defensive letter-grade:

heel-d

U.n.c. Offense: (returning starters=8, with a staggering 229 combined starts)

  • Total O=32nd, Passing O=12th, Run O=1o1st.
  • 5th best in Team Passing Efficiency!
  • 16th best in Explosiveness. 12th in rushing success rate! 7th in passing success rate!
  • 1o6th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
  • 74th in Tackles for a Loss allowed and 59th in Sacks allowed.
  • Offensive line coach Chris Kapilovic took over for offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, who left to become head coach at North Texas.
  • The U.n.c. O already enjoys a stellar six stretch plays of 40 yards or more already, two of which were homerun plays of 72 yards or more!
  • Accordingly, the U.n.c. O has a phenomenal eight different pass recipients averaging 11+ per grab. Four of which mean 15 or more!
  • Speedy tempo heavy oriented multi/spread set that runs a lotta different plays via design and very lucrative depth alike. Think Fu’fensive tempo, now think just a bit faster!

    1 Hb, 'gun, spread odd-side or left.
    1 Hb, ‘gun, spread odd-side or left.
  • INT 6’3” 220 lb. Jr., Mitch Trubisky has only completed 74.5% of his passes and thrown for 10 TD’s with no INT’s in his last 240 attempts, dating back to 2014. And I’m not hyperbolezing that Mitch has one of the strongest arms I’ve ever seen from a Qb. Seriously, his pipes (biceps+triceps+forearm flexors) look like that of a professional arm wrestlers’. As this is one Jim Druckenmiller looking Qb as record breaking strength goes. Albeit a Qb who was only 86% in passing on 47 attempts last year! Wow, as yah; I’d say being named Mr. Football from the pigskin happy state of Ohio counts. More of a pocket kid now; though do notice he was the #1 dual threat Qb in America with 9,000+ passing and 2,000+ rushing coming out of high school. Can quick-kick as a former H.S. punter as well. Nickname is “Mr. Biscuit”; and yet this biscuit runs a tasty 4.58 forty, presses 345 and squats 395 lbs. with a 33” vertical. Even though he is a 1st-year starter; he has already played in 21 games coming into this campaign. Moves the pocket forward and laterally, to take another look-see downfield. Highest ceiling Qb I’ve seen play VT in years; many!
  • U.n.c. returns two out of its top-3 receiving threats in Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer. Hollins averaged nearly 25 yards per catch last season –third-best in ACC history– while the 3o4’s very own escapee, the 5’10” 181 lb. final year Wr, Ryan Switzer who only needs about 20 more grabs to become UNC’s all-time pass catcher; folks, that’s legit. There is a drop-off (pardon the pun) to the rest of the U.n.c. receiving crops; though make no mistake, it is a drop off from all-time great to pretty good and most teams would love to have that problem. As this slot receiver, (Switzer) plays third-fiddle to nobody; this is the Alpha-slot guy or the best pure Slot-Wr in the nation. Switzer runs extremely well in open-field traffic, gives ground to grain ground like a champ. U.n.c. does field an odd couple Wr’ing corps, with two guys >6’5” and to guys at 5’10” or less.
  • Stud 6′ 221 lb. true-Jr. year Tb Elijah Hood is said to be hobbled by a concussed head (God Bless). Though if he is 100%, or close enough, he ran for close to 1,500 last year for good reason(s). On pace to catch the football at least 400% more times this year than he did in ’15. Only ranked the #1 Rb outta high school in America! During his final scholastic season he rushed for 3,69o yards and 53 TD’s with a mere 8,981 yards and 147 TD’s for his 5-star Charlotte high school career. National H.S. Player of the Year award winner. Yah; this kid is legit; because if anything, his semi lofty collegiate numbers so far, might just be a smidgen disappointing based upon his alpha Rb graduating high school potential.
  • This towering all upperclassmen oLine  -only one is guy south of 6’5”- is not quite so epic in short-yardage, perhaps due to being so towering and unable to play purely low in the first place. However, the Heel oLine returns four starters led by right-Ot Jon Heck, left-G Caleb Peterson and C Lucas Crowley. The trio has more than 100 career starts by themselves, and is responsible for allowing just 16 sacks in 2015. The Heel Oline tries for the V-shaped passing cup; although the run-game has a very interesting angular zoning element to it. i.e. quicker to engage N-S with less E-W duration/hesitation. Run-game does have some zone-stretch elements which seem ill fit on film, as this oLine lumbers a bit to get there in horizontal terms. Conte’s abound.
  • O runs a lotta spread set ‘Gun looks with true old-school Hb or Hb’s plural splitting Trubisky; with a very quick play-action mesh-point to either side.
  • Trubisky is very cagey with the pump-fake to sell the secondary pass on the RPO (run-pass option) or the tertiary (self) Qb keeper run. Trubisky throws very well to the edge, think a bionic Brewer. Lotta quick hitters early to sucker you up. Will stack Wr’s and screen off of the same. (Forward=blocker every time I saw). The other Rb (Logan) adds game breaking shifty attributes to the the throw-game and run-game alike. Smaller, darty, change of pace looking Rb this Logan kis.
  • Really nice screen sets here, kinda Bustle ‘esque, very screen-game creative; and there are actually scripted Qb-delay-draws off of fake screens. Did see a little read option and make no mistake Trubisky rumbles forward. And don’t forget, he’s been sacked 1o times for 61 rushing in reverse. This makes his raw gain a sporty looking 6 yards per upfield carry, with 4 TD’s! i.e. this #10 Qb1 is a real live problem folks.
  • 44% run : pass 56% mix.

Offensive letter-grade:

unc-o

T.Heel Special Teams: (both return) 20th ranked ST’s overall.
Speedy (have you noticed the team speed theme, yet); a speedy set of special teamers for the T.Heels as well. 25th in KO returns and 45th in punt returns via mighty mite Wr Ryan Switzer speak to this. Switzer only has seven punt returns for a major or six points in his previous three years.

damn right I wanna beat this 6-pac' looking, needs a haircut, tomahawk choppin' puke!
damn right I wanna beat this tomahawk chopper!

Net punting is in good hands -or should I say feet- via the 12th best net punter in the land in nugget or rookie year punter, and 27 year old 6’3” 200 lb. ripped up imported Australian Rules rugby Punter one Tom Sheldon. Tommy has a average of 42 with a long of 47 and Tom is every underage teammates best friend every Saturday night. He is also a Koufax or southpaw punter, which reverses the spin on the punt to CCW (counterclockwise) and changes the aim point ever so slightly to the odd or left side when attempting to block his punts.

6′, 190 lb. Sr. year Fairfax Station homegrown Va. native, and Place-Kicker Nick “rocky” Wheeler has dipped from 86% last year to 62% this year; though no Kicker ever hit 86% of his kicks as a fluke; you nail 8.6 outta 10 with good reason. And one of those reasons is pure, raw Col. Steve Austin bionic-man fame leg strength. This guy has range folks; N.f.l. range at 55+ routinely in practice; and he has five in-game makes of 47 or more. That’s weaponizing the position in my book. Ditto a top-25 touchback KO percentage. And if Sunday’s do not work out, dude looks like he just walked off the set of Game of Thrones, seriously; as I’d wager the over on girls made here.

The U.n.c. offense has had one punt blocked; with no defensive blocked punts of their own. U.n.c. has had 1 FGA swatted and they did snuff out one opposing FGA as well. Punt coverage is a very thrifty 8th best, although KO return defense is a below average 82nd. U.n.c. opponent’s have only netted a miserable 37.5% of their FGA’s vs. U.n.c. thus far.

Special Teams letter-grade: A—, probably the two best pure legs we will face in special-teams play all year; Switzer can do hellacious damage as well)

X-factor(s):

  • motive: might be a little O&M payback juju here, what with having just botched Frank’s farewell Lane game. Edge=VT.
  • weather: potential MAJOR player here per Hurricane Matthew. Will favor the superior run-game and U.n.c. does have the first-most talented Rb on the field here; the better/deeper Oline and the more physical Pivot (Qb). Edge=U.n.c.raleigh-weather
  • health: both teams look fairly fit. Thank coach God! EDGE=push.
  • penalties: U.n.c. is highly undisciplined (107th in flags). EDGE=VT.
  • intangibles: you’d have to think U.n.c. just expended more than a few mental and physical bullets in a gallant upset down in Tally last weekend. Likewise, UNC is only 105th in Time of Possession (TOP). (BTW: this TOP imbalance leaves the U.n.c. D very exposed!) EDGE=VT.
  • fatigue: VT is a full +6 in rest; and how often to I get to type that one? EDGE=VT.

 

The key to predicting who wins this football is ... what?

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Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is… that yes, Virginia Tech does have a sizeable statistical defensive edge in this one 196 less ypg allowed vis-à-vis; and on top of that, the Hokies have forced 30 opponent drives to go three-&-out, (or less), this year! That and yes again, in all metrics fairness U.n.c. does have a modest or less sizey offensive advantage of 35 ypg in their favor. That tells me that the truest intrinsic pigskin forecaster will shift their attention away from strength on strength analysis of the highly stingy Hokie D vs. the highly efficacious T.Heel O; and instead focus the strength of their analysis on whether the pretty good Hokie O wins the B-side match-up vs. the seemingly valuable Carolina D.

***

the skinny:
The skinny here is…  I may not dislike U.n.c. as much as Chris Coleman dislikes U.n.c., though I do dislike U.n.c. more than most. In point of fact, I hope we flush all this sky-blue (bleep) and totally ball-cock these powder-blue freaks good-n-hard. Thing is… -and you may call this a hunch- I’ve not had a good feel for this one all week long. As this previous OPEN week may have come a fortnight too early in service of our maturing offensive effect. Or as someone wrote in the E.c.u. Eye part I, as the late great Coach Chuck Daly taught him at hoops camp; when you get hot, keep shooting. Feed that hot hand and ride it as far as you can until it does eventually cool off.

Hope I'm still here; AND look this good in seven years!
Hope I’m still here; AND look this good in seven years!

However, and I gotta say, with all PHNC-Fu jokes aside … this is one squirrely looking game to pick.

As this one is on the road, after a potential rustication, oxidizing or rusty week off in the classical rest vs. rust argument that dominates water cooler downtime discussions throughout all of sport. Likewise the wonderment as to who will weather the Hurricane Matthew storm all the more?

The UNC D is so-so at most.
And yet they do kind of remind me of the french D on film that nearly beat us in the London timeout calling game a few years back. They have physical VHT (very highly touted) blue-chip studs; allover; ‘hoo nevertheless somehow manage to hide it rather well, at least at times.

The U.n.c. O however is the truth! And they do not hide much of anything productivity wise there. They pass like mothers, and their run-game is extremely efficacious. No wasted motion here.

Accordingly, and although I can not put my O&M finger explicitly upon it, I sense a temporal tremor in the timing of the maturing Fu’fense force. And yes, I realize this may be at the expense of pissing Chris Coleman and a fair to middling number of you off, though I do sense that Virginia Tech may open up a bit out of sync to start.

And here you thought I was gonna play this “hunch” and pick U.n.c. to win; right? ‘RONG! As me late mum’s side had a saying… “…when 10 men tell you you are drunk you’d better lie down“; as picking U.n.c. after what I’ve heard this week feels like I just imbibed a whole case.

Yes, this game could turn precipitous, in hurry. If that is the case than all bets on pick a straight up side are off and I could only offer picking the under on as sloppy track where anything can and probably will happen. Right now methinks U.n.c. happens to lead for a bit, and then later on in the game, Bud Böck turns the much vaunted Trubisky over not once, twice in the final 20 minutes, and Virginia Tech wins -possibly even steals- an Etta James elemental one in “Stormy Weather”. (p.s. as no one has held U.n.c. to less than 37 and everyone has scored at least 23 on the Heel’s… well not until, now.)

upset Index=64%

Virginia Tech=36, North Carolina=18

LETS GO!

HOKIES!

bourbonstreet**

hurricane-matt

12 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Heels may be overconfident. They’ve been told by the media how great they are all week. They may not play well in the rain either. Hope we can get this one. Revenge tour part 2. Always love the content Street. Go Hokies, beat UNCheat!

    1. I hope they are overconfident.
      I also hope they are physically worn down team and an emotional spent bullet after there
      hell or high water last 120 mins. of scrumming. They had to leave something out on those 2 fields.

      b.street

  2. We hold the cheaters to 18? Didn’t see that coming from you. Is that the weather or bud? If we do, yeah, we win.

    1. both.
      Prolly shoulda lowered our total as well.

      Though short-fields could abound in a weathering game such as this as well.

      b.street

  3. Both teams average 40 pts/gm. How can unc score over that; how can we score under that? Particularly afterhanpging 40 offensive pts on #1 defense in country!

    1. See above answer.

      If this weather truly hits; a baseball score could be sagest of all.

      b.street

      1. It’s going to be a steady rain and a bit of wind. But certainly no worse than VT-BC at Lane in 2007. That was a torrential downpour in 40 degree temperatures. You were totally soaked and cold.

        We blanked them for 56 minutes until the rain let up and Miracle Matty got us. Rain all game may tame Turbinsky.

        1. Yah; Roger that on hurting their Qb.

          May however turn Hood loose.
          And he and his Oline are better; than ours.
          : (

          b.street

  4. Fuente and Bud has a Statement to make, unCheats will get IT tomorrow . I say this game has been in Fuente’s radar since he came here . And Bud losing on a BS call last year. I feel like VT knows what It will take.

    1. it is quite the X’s and O’s match-up.
      Underrated; in pure coaching acumen terms for it, too.

      As both can surely coach their side way way up.

      b.street

  5. What about Hood’s concussion- that may come in play big time- or not if concussed

    1. well, first they said he was doing better.
      Then they listed him as Questionable.
      So… we both gotta ask 3:30 ‘ish Sir.

      b.street

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