Your winning North Carolina Tech Thoughts!

Virginia Tech 59, North Carolina 7

Stro’ling along, a-okay …right?

Virginia Tech football looks pretty damn shinny at 6-1 and in total 100% control of its very own Coastal Division (a.k.a. its A.c.c championship game) destiny.

That’s not half bad if you ask me -and you did via reading these very words- this side of departing two epic catch-game testing and record breaking talents respectively. Not to mention an offense that had not one, a 2016 offense that had two full once a decade pure alpha leaders to fire the troops up when the O&M pilot lights out; plus 100% of the right-side oLine, all being gonzo. And yet, per always; “the (R.A.T.T.) truth is out there“… don’t believe me? Just read on to find, out…

The Fu‘th and mythperceptions…

As 6 up and only defending national champion Clemson 1 down things stand, here are the #13 nationally ranked realities… allegedly…

  • 35th in total O.
  • 48th in rush O.
  • 31st in throw O.
  • 15th in team passing efficiency. (that is impressive!)
  • 25th in scoring O. (which is a misnomer as there is no ST’s or D scoring tally)

Pretty spiffy so far, right?

All is more or less right in the offensive New River Valley, correct?
As (parking) lot #1 lightening strikes and we all know… “Not so fast my friends…

Because when you dig-deeper as any Holden Hall quality data-MINE(r) would, you see the metrics that paint the more authentic and somewhat fair to middling or the more offensively centrist picture in my book…

  • 45th in sacks allowed.
  • 50th in explosion.
  • 53rd in third-down conversion O.
  • 57th in offensive efficiency.
  • 58th in forth-down conversion O.
  • 59th in red-zone O.
  • 70th in power success rate.
  • 73rd in TFL allowed (tackles for a loss)!
  • 86th in finishing drives!
  • 95th best in rushing S&P. (an offensive drive data comparison metric of all college football D-1 games vis-à-vis thus far)
  • 124th best in rushing IsoPP. (points per play on successful or positive yardage gaining plays) i.e. this stat measures how: “potent” you are when you are actually gaining positive yardage.
  • 124th easiest Rb’s to tackle! Dang…
  • and we only have one ball carrier on the entire team above a 47% OPPRate (opportunity rate). Qb2 AJ Bush! i.e. this metric charts how often the offensive line does its job and achieves a >5 yards per carry for the runner.
  • with only the really lame (God Bless) C.J. Carroll checking in north of a 67% catch rate! (84% for the sure handed CeeJay).

Or in other words… is it really that bogus to say that this 2017 O is really only a Sean Glennon drumstick removed from being: “inert”, all over again?

nearing their roof in a Corn(holed) offense.

Now now, before you get your Hokiebird tail-feathers all bent outta shape, what does such a divergence in seemingly excellent, to seemingly middleocore and then seemingly downright “inert” statistics really tell us?

Well in order to R.A.T.T. dowser what this all means, we have to look at the week-by-week trends…

When we do so we see that the 2017 O has not expressed as much statistical variance in textbook terms as Bud Bôck has. Or in other words coach-Fu and coach Corny; somehow (and I don’t really know how); nevertheless, they somehow got such a retooled 2017 Fu’fense to its ceiling in a hurry and that is where it has adhesively stuck since early September. (comparatively, whereas Foster’s stop-unit has been in a steady state of betterment nearly all season long. Though why is that?)

Before we begin, and to compound fracture all of that, mind the store that this somewhat truncated 2017 O does pretty decently (mid-40’s ‘ish) in all four Standard Down rankings. (i.e. when not facing Lo.FM’s the Fu’fense gets by well enough). Or to put it another way, this is not a pursuit pilot’s P-51 or dream O. It is not good in chase: be that vs. the chain-gain in long yardage Lo.FM’s or much less when trailing and in need of burst type plays on the scoreboard. File that one away if we trial by more than two full scores for future ’17 reference…

To take that an objective step further… this 2017 Fu’esne ranks a paltry 119th best in America on Lo.FM’s! This is also a very slow starting offense that opens the 1Q 90th best, then goes 71st in the second stanza. This is coaching every bit as much as it is conditioning, however it is also a more that subtle warning. As this impoverished of a Lo.FM offensive set can not afford to chase now that we are into the meat of the regular season schedule. As it was none other than Frank Beamer -who in a startling moment of non Frank ‘esque in-game on-air microphone candor- admitted that this 2017 O had better get its ground-game in gear before the real teams get here. Amen Frank.

Now we begin… as that’s code for two things sports-fans… first of all that’s code for coaching the verb and secondly it is code for personnel limitations that no amount of verbiage can elevate this side of Coach God Himself.

And here is a word to the long-view wise… don’t hold your Tech breath and turn all O&M in the face, as this contemporary O is prolly not real far from it’s foreseeable ceiling for the next 10 to 20 games beyond a Hooker or a QVT (Patterson kid) breaking through said ceiling or some sorta mega **** or ***** signing at Rb and/or Wr to truly spark things up.

As coach-Fu and coach Corny, coach Z, coach Wiggins and coach Vice are doing damn well all they max’ed out can with (mostly) C+ to B- type mismatched or even at times downright juxtaposed possession parts.

That all being objectively science-fact rightfully stated, don’t die of shock if this O eats a hiccup game or two before 2017 comes to a close.

Although this is also code for the growing glory of coach Hilgrith’s S&C and nutritional applied sports and cultural mental toughs really showing out in the last 10’ish minutes of scrumming. Where they -to their credit- have beaten up on mentally softer teams and truly elevating an otherwise middleocore Hokie offensive crew via some easy on the Eye garbage time yards. As such is simultaneously the fiction and the fiefdom in the skewed realm of turning loose a decidedly Rb4 or of a message board favorite getting out Fox(ed).

quietly doing obscene work with a better Top-11.

On the other side of the line-of-scrimmage, I actually part company with myself and say to you that this side is mis-ranked. Albeit in this particular case, the 2017 national halt-unit metrics are too low, if anything; as this is rounding into one of the better Foster defense’s dating back to 2005 or 2007 give or take.

  • 13th in Total D!
  • 16th in rushing D.
  • 26th in passing D.
  • 11th best in defensive Havoc!
  • 4 of our top-5 tacklers at a 42% or better Success Rate; (phenomenal)!
And that's a helluva a departure from opening the year ranked 
119th in Total D!
And yet the now ranked 35th in total O opened the year ranked
42nd! "Do you believe me now Trinity?"

Now, do pause to consider that this is a Foster stop-unit that is playing defense without a true Fs anywhere on the entire 2017 football roster! As our Fs1 was actually a Wr who could not catch and our Fs now is a Rover/Cb with a bum right-shoulder. Likewise consider that there are a few occasional gaps in our medium to deeper zone looks accordingly; and you see what I mean when I type that a 113th spot improvement is not only arithmetically astonishing… this is a 2017 Bud Bõck unit that still ain’t at its defensive zenith!

Don’t believe me? Just ask the most improved Dt1 (Settle) and Dt2 (Walker) play this side of when Pugh and Beasley went from so-so to downright good in-season. Except for the little fact that bump and lump have gone from downright very good to great and are possibly on their way into the Top-2 all-time Wiles’ starting Dt-combination conversation. As the insider whispers in/around Blacksburg say that Foster thinks 2018 would be his best defensive unit ever; if he can only convince everyone to stay; wowow!

***

Let us now examine the last two games in particular vs. a very inviting 119th ranked U.n.c. D and a well well less than its former vanguard self 93rd ranked BeeCee D.

These two games are what tipped my film-study off… as less defensive and special teams scoring on Saturday afternoon and we really lead U.n.c. 14-zip for a good long while in what erstwhile bogus appeared to be a runaway rout with zero offensive points scored vs. a totally ready to spit-the Unc.edu bit entire T.heel football program for the first 20 mins. of play. Recollect that prior to that we mucked around on a three FG-make offensively yo-yo type day up on Chestnut Hill. As when you add that all up that’s 15 drive staling punts, 2 drive halting fourth down stops, with one INT and two missed FGA’s. All of this in eight quarters of scrumming vs. two pretty pitiful defenses by-the-bye. So do you see what I mean yet?

As this is a 2017 Fu’ense that executes nearly mistake free football efficaciously enough, and yet it is also a 2017 Fu’fense that lacks the individual twitch to create plays when need be.

the nittygritty

Does this 2017 football team not seem more than a little yesteryear Fumaliar to anyone else?

And yet little things like being ranked 24th best nationally in punt-returns, 20th best in KO-returns and 13th best in Net Punting to go with being ranked 24th best in fewest penalty yards accessed is covering a lotta hidden-yardage ground.

Not to mention covering a lotta field-position and covering our arse on a whole whole lotta slow to stuttering offensive starts. If you don’t believe me just ask w.v.u. how this one tastes. Then ask being 20th best in the all important Turnover Margin metric. As this 2017 Virginia Tech football team is not so much beating you quite as much as they are not beating themselves. Because they are actually forcing you to beat them and in order to do that you too need to field a matching great defense with epic special-teams and a better offense. As one could dare to say that you need a knock-out punch or at least several 10-8 rounds to win vs. a St.Charles Place physically limited and yet simultaneously a Park Place mentally well schooled football squad —or a sportsman’s monopoly on Gestalt Theory gone ballistic if you will.

the techaway

Now, and in closing, recall where we are with film-study on our ’17 offensive limitations and scouting tendencies abounding after our less than overwhelming offensive outputs vs. the two most recent 119th and 93rd best defense’s in the land… then riddle me this…

  • Duke 27th in total D.
  • @Da U and their 41st total D.
  • @Georgia Tech and their 20th total D.
  • Pitt (105th in total D). (not much to see here)
  • @hooVa with their 29th ranked total D.

…you do the, 6 up and 1 down with 4 quality remaining defenses on tap maths!

As one could be forgiven for saying we are trending as close as the Fu’ense will ever be to returning to our Beamerball or Fancy Gap now gone offensively
schematic fancy-pants ways.

Put thy hand on the TSL Bible and tell the truth... VT finishes... where???

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Virginia Tech=59, North Carolina=7

LETS GO!

Hokies!

bourbonstreet**

14 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. I looked at box scores this weekend. Many teams “start slow”. Some explode in 2nd half others stay slow. Some explode in first half and collapse in second. Understand the issue but our bitch is other teams get first score. Anyway.
    My read is you don’t really know why we are 6-1. Me neither. Lol
    What is a running game? It’s there so you have to respect it but not sure we need 100 yard guy at this time. Still watching. 😎🍷

    1. My read is you don’t really know why we are 6-1. Me neither. Lol

      That was quality.
      +1.

      b.street

      1. Oh no doubt.

        That’s not VT’s fault. Kinda like #23 beating Seattle and a buncha Finals dips.
        Though that’s not ‘rong, either.

        b.street

  2. For some reason , I get the feeling that this team and the coaches are more like a boxer trying to feel out the opponent for the first few rounds before finally figuring out how to knock them out

    1. …with so much offensive retooled youth?

      Maybe that’s not the worst ask, so long as the scoreboard allows.

      Very reminiscent of “money” Mayweather Jr. in point of fact.
      (i.e. defense and ST’s)

      b.street

  3. Your deeper insights fill me with trepidation vs better opponents. Meanwhile, it’s sure fun to see our Hokies decisively beat inferior competition instead of playing to their level. Basically, on offense, we take the Duke/Boise State approach of getting the most out of mistake-free-but-primarily average players (by power 5 standards) while Bud gets it done with more elite players. Overall, the effect on offense is not to amaze you, but it keeps the face-palm moments to a minimum.

    1. Precisely correct.

      So, 10-2.
      Maaaaaaybe, 9-3.

      Although another way to say all of what I said above is… they (O Staff in particular); they sure have done a great job of measuring their offensive Margin of Error. (or just how much Foster and ST’s can overcome).

      b.street

  4. Muchos gracias for excellent analysis as always…

    Maybe..just maybe it starts to click, with more WRs off M*A*S*H unit and playing more now we get some catches and production from others as Jackson starts to spread the wealth around

    Maybe..just maybe Coach Fu adds a Fox to the starting RB rotation as Einstein Definition of insanity starts to take hold

    Maybe , there’s something behind door #3 with a phase three to the RPO that’s yet to be fully implemented & ready for impact: H-back/TE as receivers off initial blocks…we have three excellent prospects with soft hands and big bodies to exploit over zealous LBs like Da U

    Maybe I’ve been in the Seasonal Hard Cider a big early this season too. Cause it’s been a great run so far and this week opportunity to set up a fantastic November run.

    Let’s Go…Hokies!!!

    1. Or, maybe not… the weather is changing.
      30’s ‘morrow in Bluefield.

      I’d say that’s a fine time for a Hard Cider.
      ; )

      bstreet

  5. There are 2 players on the offense who have been featured in tough games and led the Hokies to victory. Cam and Travon. From what I have seen in the last 7 games – those 2 have to be healthy and have to be featured. If the rest of the team improves (Oline and Receivers). The stats may not improve but the wins will keep coming. You can win a lot of games (about 10) playing great defense and not turning the ball over.

    1. I have to agry.

      And poor T.Mac’… he only had 1, o-n-e fumble.
      Same as C.J. Carroll. (who did not get, benched)

      When you’s invited to the biggest dance of the year… you dance with who brung yah.”
      -Terry Bradshaw, on big games-

      b.street

  6. Why do you think we have problems running the ball? I understand the issues with the WR’s and QB but we have an experienced line and a couple of potentially NFLers starting. I understand the RB’s lack the ability to break tackles but the line should be able to give them holes to be better than 95th ranked.
    Are people loading the box?

    1. Ah-ha……………..if you watch the @Quse tape last year, yes, technically a few have loaded the box to stop the Fu’fense. Though that is not a run-game reactionary response necessarily.

      You best load the box and play under-flood zones to limit all the quick hitting short to medium Fu’fensive throws. NOT because you are terribly VT run-fit phobic.
      (although it can have/enjoy a spillover effect there as well; though that’s gravy)

      To me?
      You FORCE Fu’ to throw long and protect for a long-time at all costs.
      Take everything else away underneath and this is not that epic of an O. Unless it has a long-protect cup forming oLine. Which we’ve not had since DeChristopher’s last season.

      So, “not really” is the film-study answer.

      At least not this side of Quse and actually Duke last year.
      As David hit Fu’ with every zone in the book at at least slowed the Fu’fense down a bit.
      Cuttclife just did not have the horses to run laterally and seal every single underneath seam and beat Fu’. Though he figured his own way to defense Fu’ right on out.

      great Q!
      b.street

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