2018 Belmont Stakes preview:

Belmont, ♬”New York, New York“♪, and the third and final leg of the 2018 Triple Crown season where lottsa wiseguys, horsemen and even a few horsehead will be trying to Justify their picks to you. As all that and more are now formally upon us this weekend in the lower western side of the state of New York.

Saturday late afternoon, at ~6:37pm give/take, Justify will make his bid and take his take a run at history and at buco dollar bills in $tud fees vs. a decent although unspectacular looking Belmont Stakes 2018 field. Belmont itself means: “beautiful hill” and after a less than dazzling second leg triple crown winning run three weeks ago at the Preakness Stakes, you have to wonder out-loud if this is an uphill battle for a now well worn Justify? As there are a couple of longer distance based contenders up at Belmont Park and this one truly is a marathon, not a spirt. Nevertheless, you want to know who will win… read on, to find… out!

Here are the Belmont ponies, by bullet format in lieu of a working copy of Excel…

One=Justify:
post: -½,
jockey: +1
trainer: +1
D.N.A.:
Speed: +1
Distance: +1
Forum: +1
intangibles: -1
∑=4.5

NOTES: I’ll put it this way… this is still the best horse in the field, although in the Top-2 for most well worn horses too. Fatigue is a major concern here and getting the #1 Post draw means he has to get out fast eough to avoid getting pinned deep along the rail. One could aruge that haste makes waste as a necessary early petrol burn goes here and that leaves one wondering how much a closing Justify will have left in the final 10th-12th furlongs tank? With the emphasis on the “long” part indeed.

Two=Free Drop Billy
post: -.¼
jockey: 0
trainer: 0
D.N.A.: 0
Speed: -¼
Distance: –1
Forum: +½
intangibles: -1
∑=–2

NOTES: Not much to note here, well, that is beyond being a disappointed 3-year old, who has had his peeps looking for extrinsic foci of control as the blame game goes. Citing a bad sloppy Derby run that the other 19 horses also ran in too does not cut here. Not a long hinting pedigree on top of all of that; go fig’ on this entry here?

Three: Bravazo:
post: 0
jockey: +½
trainer: +1
D.N.A.: +½
Speed: +1
Distance: +¾
Forum: +½
intangibles: +½
∑=4.75

NOTES: the wiseguys say this Preakness runner-up is set to bounce (as in a Boston Keltic dead spot bounce) in this one. Although they also whisper he is the best mudder here if we catch the first ever all three legs got wet or soggy Triple Crown run. Belmont is Bravazo’s third {sic: race} in just over two fortnights or five weeks of major racing so endurance is a legitimate concern here as well.

Four: Hofburg:

post: 0
jockey: +¾
trainer: 0
D.N.A.: 1
Speed: +½,
Distance: 0
Forum: +¼
intangibles: +½
∑=2.5

NOTES: Yah; I suppose, to sum extent, I do see why some are on this horse to pull the 8-1 (or better) upset at the betting window here. As Hofburg is a lotta things, and among them would be… the fact that he’s a pretty good horse and a very fresh horse, he has a sharp looking surname style pedigree, and the whispers say he has been training very well up in New York of late. We shall see…

Five: Restoring Hope:
post: 0
jockey: +½
trainer: +1
D.N.A.: +½
Speed: +¼
Distance: +½
Forum: +¼
intangibles: +½
∑=3.5

NOTES: Yes, this is the other Baffert entry -in addition to 66.7% of the Tripling way there Justify in the one-hole up top- and that leaves you wondering just how the always cagey veteran trainer Bob Baffert will elect to deploy this sneaky good pony on Saturday? As this mudder is said to be distancing born, and even if the ask is to be the rabbit for Justify, one could be forgiven for arguing that Baffert has nothing short of a 1 in 5 shot to win the Belmont either way here.

Six: Gronkowski:
post: 0
jockey: +1
trainer: +1
D.N.A.: +½
Speed: +¼
Distance: 0
Forum: +1
intangibles: 0
∑=4

NOTES: No, official relation to the wild and wonderful N.E. Pat, as this horse just happens to be named for the same. Is on the juice (or Lasix) for the first time ever here, same as… Big time Euro’ imported pony with a big time Euro’ trainer and medium+++ time domestic mount. Likewise, there are a lotta little to medium things to like here, could be a spoiler; do wish the quad-Gronk’ had just a little more length to his resumé however.

Seven: Tenfold:
post: 0
jockey: +½
trainer: +½
D.N.A.: +¾
Speed: +¾
Distance: 0
Forum: +½
intangibles: -1
∑=2

NOTES: one of the very few Beyer number (speed number) improving horses entered in the Belmont Stakes, and by one of the very few I mean the only one. Ergo, Tenfold could be a horse on the come, Tenfold should be a fresh horse, although this horse may be better on local calls than he is in dialing long-distance.

Eight: Vino Rosso
post: 0
jockey: +¾
trainer: +¾
D.N.A.: +½
Speed: +½
Distance: 0
Forum: +¼
intangibles: +¼
∑=3

NOTES: Vino Rosso is sure to be the betting fave among the faire(r) sex as the wimminz species goes on name love alone. Is quietly something of a wiseguy pick as well… as V.Rosso is said to have taken well to the New York track in training, and the blinkers seems to have helped straighten him out a bit as well. Additionally, this horse too is said to be a quality wet runner if precipitation completes the rainy trifecta here.

Nine: Noble Indy
post: -¼,
jockey: +1,
trainer: +1,
D.N.A.: +¾
Speed: +¾
Distance: +½
Forum: +¼
intangibles: +¼
∑=4.25

NOTES: yes, he is related to Sire A.P. Indy; and affirm(ed) again in that Nobel Indy also has something of a strategic or long-view late running call-sign in tow to boot. Noble Indy fields a new top-kick jockey (Castellano), N.I. has speed and he’s one of the few here who appears to have credible reach down the 1.5 mile stretch. Therefore, these 30:1 odds seem rather long indeed; and if you want a fanciful reach pick, this horse surely is the one.

Ten: Blended Citizen:
post: -1/2,
jockey: 0
trainer: 0
D.N.A.: 0
Speed: +½
Distance: -1
Forum: +¼
intangibles: 0
∑=–.75

NOTES: Blended Citizen is a fresh horse, abstaining from the entire Triple Crown jaunt thus far; he does have some local backing and yah; he did nip the Peter Pan Stakes and there is that. Beyond that, there are no real bells to tinker with here as this is the other horse I’m looking to bet against as individual match-up props go.

***

Tactics & Strategic thoughts:
Well, when I first read the Daily Racing Form, the first thing that jumped out at me was/is… for a 3-panel race (panel=½ mile in equine vernacular); for a 3-panel race, this is not exactly a superlative distance or longevity looking field— like a Preakness Stakes that lacks sprinters vis-à-vis. As there are a couple of decent to good distancing prospects to potential contending level ponies here, although no real live marathon deep, deeper, deepest titlists per the Daily Racing Form.

As one of the props I’d consider is… seeing the leader at the final turn fade out here. The catch-44 is… well, who will run him down in the stretch as we come to the final wire in the longest leg of the Triple Crown with a field that seemingly lacks truly great closer(s) itself?

As one could sincerely argue that your two best horses here (Justify and Bravazo) are not only your two top distancing horses here, they very well could be the Top-2 most spent horses here as well.

And to be quite candid regarding objectively evaluating this race gentlemen… go fig’ on how you handicap a long, hard, grinding race that sets up just like that… as your two highest rated horses, just so happen to be your two best distance horses and yet the are mutually the two highest mileage horses by far.

That leaves this racy writer wondering out loud -and we all now how dangerous that can be- that leaves this humble writer wondering out loud if this is a good place for something of a reach pick(s) on a Show posting for just 1u?

Because if you followed my weighting thus far, you are gar-ron-damn-teed a positive return already; and that affords or covers any dalliance here. And on a lovely 3o4 Friday night gents… that’s my lean… maybe take out a 1u flyer on Noble Indy and Restoring Hope and just hope to Coach God that one of ’em shows, up.

• 1u Showing on Justify/Bravazo; and then 1u on the risk level you prefer.
• 1u Showing on two horses not named Justify and Bravazo; determined by your need to accept R.O.I. v. Risk.

As I now see this as an either/or type Belmont Stakes…

1. Either, Justify and Bravazo finish in the Top-3 (i.e. they Show up); or they don’t. If they do not that means implicitly that three of the other eight ponies will pay on a Show bet. If you prefer nominal risk select Hofberg and/or Tenfold to Show, as this is where the smart money is thus far. Or if you can accept/pocket deeper risk, make the real longshot reach picks of 1u on Nobel Indy and Restoring Hope to Show.
2. Or, maybe Justify and/or Bravazo has one more kick left in them? They sure caught the kind weather trip that they so desperately needed; and there is no denying they have been the Top-2 three year olds thus far this thoroughbred season. If you feel they have something/enough left to proffer… well, as Terry Bradshaw used to say: “when you is invited to the biggest dance of the year you dance with who brung yah.“

R.A.T.T.: ... can you Justify a Triple Crown winning pick, here???

• Yes b.street. B.Baffert trips out Saturday nite at 7pm!
• No Sensei. Bravazo is due b.street
• Other pony wins here.

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#wimps!

“LETS GO!”

“Racing!”

bourbonstreet**