2021 Kentucky Derby preview!

2021 A.D. Kentucky Derby Preview:

Kentucky Derby fans, the first leg of the Trip’-Crown is gonna actually be run, first this year — of all the upside-‘rong 2020 things!

Don’t know about you? Tho’ me and my committee of one? We likes that. We also likes rich girls. And we likes rich girls who need compliment(s) about being a totally mad-hat(H)er or slinky springy sundresses all the mo’. Did Eye mention the money, yet? Oh… well… and either way; rumor has it there is some kinda horse-racing shindig going down over in the Bluegrass State this weekend and just like Lord Stephen of Braveheart fame, it “…it’s drawn the finest people.” Nonetheless, where do we draw the line in this year’s horse-racing signature start? And how much should we pony up? Read on… to find, out!

So, as someone who tries to be keepin’ it 180° (i.e., a ‘straight’… shooter); this is one squirrely horse race to cap’.

And the last time I ‘capped dat you ask?

The absurd 65:1 longest-shot (Country House (2019)) executed a lease with an option to buy and went cùl-de-sac right upside the proverbial houses, head. Just so you Win-bet know…

  • Unlike last year… this is not a jet-set field. Mo’ parts prop’ and less parts, Lear.
  • (not gonna be an easier Preakness to sprint-cap’ for it, either).
  • ((therefore, ergo, to whit; the Belmont *might* be the tix this time out))
  • Observe, there was not a lotta pure columellar spreadsheet dominance ‘in the money’ per se here. Never did find *the* incoming horse(s) in terms of having already multiples cashed in.
  • (however, another way to say ^that^ is surely to say that there could be some kinda rabbit-outta-a-hat sleeper pony pick here, somewhere… out in the thin air… just ask Co.House).

One of my more curious sources’ pointed something likewise curious out to me this year… she said that the k.Derby modus operandi has changed; or {sic: up} shifted of late if you will.

As there has been far less pacing in several go for broke throttle=fully open runs in the last decade give/take.

Meaning: go’on and grab the k.Derby breeding right$ gusto while you can and everything stud-fees will turn up roses for you down the road. (which, in all candor, prolly ain’t fiscally ‘rong). This however has emptied at least a couple of Triple Crown tanks in the initial Louisville leg. As sprinters have outpaced the pacers/stalkers by staking an early to mid-race claim to the lead and being too far out in front to run down— or by doing just enough jockeying/trafficking to get all the way home.


The new decade caveat being… just how much burner type of pace is there in this possible velocity challenged 2021 field?

i.e., is this recent rather successful gunner type of mentality about to downshift in historic terms due to wanting for 2021 raw speed?

 ***

To make all of ^that^ all the nuttier… what legit speed there is in this year’s Derby trail field is further from the rail. About ⅔’rds of the out or wider and all bunched up together.

This makes one really suspect that one of these faster horses may just force everyone’s velocity hand here. Because if one of them guns the opening “bell” break from the gate you’d have to think that more than one of them will feel that trigger finger start to red-line itch indeed.

Then… to compound-fracture the brain of all of ^that^ all the mo’? There is precious little in the way of seemingly good-distancing horses in this season’s k.Derby. Never mind great-distancing (or Belmont type of) horses. And speed+distance is where we have hung our ‘capin’ cap for a long long time going now. (viz: there is only one noticeable better than average distancing pony here, the seemingly forgettable 50:1 (Brooklyn Strong) longshot.

Bonus scoops (that did not fit into Excel):

  • Essential Quality is a just sharp-looking Gray Horse. Pretty animal. Very. Tho’ only eight grays have ever won the run for the roses.
  • Known Agenda has the highest (single-race) Equibase Speed Figure in this year’s 3-year-old crop. Might wanna Preakness pocket that little tidbit.
  • …whispers say… Rock Your World may have the best blend of distancing+speed. We shall see… tho’ that’s what Eye’m hearing.
  • Hot Rod Charlie just set a Fair Grounds (Louisanna) track record! (that typically does not, suck)
  • King Fury; if you want a late rallying closer this might be the only one. And he is the only one with twice experience at this distance.
  • Soup and Sandwich, the fact that his namey jocky slid over onto another Pletcher horse might just be a sign. (albeit a negative one).

 

🌹🏇🌹

So, take everything you read next with the proverbial grain of NaCl, or the whole entire old-school metal-pourer Morton’s cardboard container of salt.

Because… you could be forgiven for playing Point-G and making a pass on this one here. As (hopefully) the sprinty-Preakness and the grueling-Belmont spreadsheet much truer to form than this outlying k.Derby just did.

i.e., Eye semi-like our chances to Excel more so down the Triple Crown stretch than I do on this initial leg. At least this season anywho… 1u or some fractional wager of 1u is all you can R.A.T.T. do here. (or just be patient grasshoppers, and pony up next time out).

The Call:

  • either, pass and we will get back at it next time out —Coach God wiling.                               🎓
  • or, chop up whatever 1u means to you. .33 on 3 more likely horses to Show. Or dump the whole entire whopping 1u on some freaky-freak odds-wise and whiteout the The Black Stallion if either of these risk-averse Kentucky Derby strategies misses at the Preakness and/or at the Belmont later this season. Again, Coach God willing.

💯

Picks: (.33u’s):

  1. Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, King Fury, and Rock Your World; all to Show.
  2. (Prop): YES winner is from post-position 14th to 18th.
  3. HTH’s!!!

R.A.T.T.: ...what should we do with this year's 2021 Kentucky, Derby???

View Results

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#wimps!
Kentucky Derby 2021=???
please support the VT F.C.A.!!!

LETS GO!

Hokies!

 bourbonstreet**

4 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Keep writing the Horse Racing stuff, love it. Was set to attend my first Derby last yr, box seats on the rail..the world screwed me

    1. No shite?

      (the odd part woulda been… you have great seats for only part of the race. the part right in front of your line-of-sight). Pop and I did that on his last trip. And we finally decided cheaper and way higher up in the grandstand was a much better value for total race viewing turn-to-turn. (as you will see only 1/3rd of the race down low give/take). HTH’s!

      and thanks griff!
      b.street

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