2024 Preakness preview!

The 2o24 Preakness Stakes:

Preakness race fans; pony, up…

Stake(s) your claim to who will win down below! Blackeye some Susan(s), put on a skimpy, strappy sundress, fully equipped with: tight turns too. And not on the filly species. That, and do not skimp on the SPF over in B’more, Maryland. A hat might help anti-aging all dat as well. Size -or at least gaudiness- does matter here. As this one is one behind the triple-gold 15oth k.Derby recall. Nevertheless, what you wanna know is who is gonna win the 2o24 Preakness Stakes and by how much, rights? So, read on… to find, out!

The Preakness Stakes is an American thoroughbred horse race held annually on Armed Forces Day, the third Saturday in May at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. The Preakness Stakes is a Grade I race run over a distance of 1+3⁄16 miles (9.5 furlongs; 1.9 kilometers) on dirt. Colts and geldings carry 126 pounds (57 kg); and fillies 121 pounds (55 kg). It is the second jewel (or leg] of the Triple Crown, held two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and three weeks before the Belmont Stakes.

First run in 1873, the Preakness Stakes was named by a former Maryland governor after the colt who won the first Dinner Party Stakes at Pimlico. Annual “Preakness Weekend” races include both the Saturday Preakness Stakes and a Grade II race on Friday for fillies only named the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Attendance at the Preakness Stakes ranks second in North America among equestrian events, surpassed only by the Kentucky Derby.

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Post Time: ~7 p.m. ET

TV Coverage Start Time: 4:30 p.m.

TV and Live Stream: NBC, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app, and Peacock (pre-race coverage on CNBC from 1-4:30 p.m. ET)

…the need for speed!” —(not): Goose

o-420 D.R.F. basics: (hint: higher=better).

Recall… Speed Figures, to keep any (potential) crowing paced… typically improve

by 3-4 points/month for most any credible Derby, Preakness, or Belmont candidate.

  • January: ave.=86.
  • February: ave=91.
  • March: ave=94.
  • April: ave=97.

Pony pickers are hawkish on waiting to see speed improvement(s) in races no.3, no,4, and no.5 outta a given horse before they will allow their purse strings to ride or die with the same. Said horse is said to be: ‘finding its stride’ or getting its sea legs under them if you will. Or, 43–55 miles per hour with 60 m.p.h. being (pretty much) a hard ceiling if not a roof outright.

Additionally, if it precips over in Maryland we want a 32o (or, better) mudder number. ≥32o Wet rating is a must. (Data Range=o-42o).

Finally, the Derby, and fo’ sure the Belmont desire peeps with that Eamonn Coghlan (finishing) kick. ≥32o Dst rating is a must. (Jim Brown’s or Magic Johnson’s number for your Ginko whatever it is called gland… Eye forget?) (Data Range=o-42o). That attempt at satire aside, there are several interesting -if not lucrative- outside postings here that portend easily having enuff juice left to make a late dash for the “crabcakes and football” wire. A very non-regulation/traditional look for the shortest leg of the Trip’ Crown. As it kinda has a Gotham flavor or hint to it to me.

Now observe… this is not the fleetest of footest Preakness field in all-time terms… check it…

Observe: same as Mars Blackman… “no, no, no, no, nooooooo-body” in this ’24 set of entrants has anything north of what it (typically) takes to “meep-meep” Road Runner win, here.

As the average winning speed marker is 1o3 and only one ’24 entrant has trumped that; once… (1o5 on Muth) and he be… SCRATCHED.
Dangnation…

A.K.A. do not turn blue in the Black-Eyed Susan face if/when a NAME/front-runner finds himself getting pressed or even tailgated via a closer(s) late in this ’24 one here.

Paddock Static:

Catching Freedom: Won the La.Derby at this very distance. Off the pace mover. Seems to be right-sized petrol tank-wise for this fit/shape. Strong mount/team too.

Muta: Sidelined for the Kentucky Derby due to Baffert’s (+1 suddenly extended!) ban by Churchill Downs, Muth could go postward as the favorite on the strength of a victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last time out, beating just Steel by two lengths and Mystik Dan by 6 1/4 lengths. Likes to sit just off the pace. Checks a lotta boxes. 100% blue or red ribbon rusher so far!

UPDATE: then… he spiked a 1o3f° fever early in the week post-Cali shipping (St.Dunstan help) and has been forced to: SCRATCH. Dang…

https://www.drf.com/formulator/pp-details/05-18-2024/PIM/13/D/USA

Just Steel: is another ’24 Kentucky Derby runner in the Preakness. Jockey Joel Rosario will take the mount for 88-year-old Hall of Fame trainer “The Coach” D. Wayne Lukas. Such is a strong on/off-court 1-2. Just Steel just never fired in the Kentucky Derby and finished 17th, which followed a runner-up finish behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Bounced? Tired/done?

Seize the Grey: his rider (Jaime Torres) is breaking his Trip-Crown maiden here. (1st on a Derby undercard Graded Stakes race got him this ride). The sage ole horse trader/trainer D. Wayne Lukas can only help. However, were you any good at your very 1st French Kiss? As this would be a helluva a story— and pretty much a likewise, shock… …that squarely struck, there is a brewing/gathering popularity here among the quadruped cognoscenti surrounding this one here. Eye’ma not sure I am seeing it… I am dutifully reporting it JIC. Scored his biggest win yet in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on Derby Day, which was the colts’ first stakes win and the first graded stakes win of Torres’ career. Ran seventh in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, and was third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Up/Down Smothers’ Brothers kinda look. The galloping gray is part of the ownership platform MyRacehorse, which makes it possible for anyone to own a share in a top racehorse for as little as $100. And maybe that’s what time it really is -just watch- here?

Imagination: Bob’s 1b side horse that has had a good -if not great- 3-year-old season so far. Very good at that. $1.05 million yearling purchase, finished second, beaten a neck, by Stronghold in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, after winning the Grade 2 San Felipe. Quality. Gate breaker… start=finish for this early mover here. 100% Win or Place thus far! Résumé (or competition) is a pinch south of Muth’s, however… still yet…

St.Eligius bless!

Mugatu: finished an okay 5th last month in the Blue Grass Stakes. He broke his seal in November, yet has failed to finish first or second in all of his last seven starts. Gotta be a reason(s) for that… like a hard cap of a ceiling or thereabouts. This is his lucky 13th start or Triskaidekaphobia, weariness.

Tuscan Gold: is a good bloodline colt who has just three races under his belt and finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. He should be fresh; if a bit untested. Has he developed enuff at this junior season level? As there is at least some measure of Talent on board, here. That said… some say he is on Fourm at the right time for this try. Liked the tape Eye saw here. Has some latent pull/power to him.

Uncle Heavy: won the Withers in February at Aqueduct before his 5th place finish in the Wood Memorial. Such is not a positive approach much less a positive, slope. Now fully outta a JIC self-imposed quarantine during Stakes Race season earlier this year. Getting an Ace of a jockey for this one too.

https://production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2024/05/Preakness-24.pdf

Mystik Dan: gunning to become the 14th Triple Crown winner by winning the Preakness to Belmont Stakes on June 8 at Saratoga. I’d say that counts. He had a perfect trip in the Derby and now faces a slew of fresh, talented contenders. That counts, too. As does the vacillation to actually enter Mystik Dan in the middle leg of the Triple Crown itself. (There had to be a reason or reasons for that). Quickie of a 14-day turn or basically an NC2A conference tourney back-to-back-back test.                                                          📷

Acrostic

Who wins the 2o24 Preakness Stakes???

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Past is/is not Prologue here?

No trainer has won the Preakness Stakes more than Bob Baffert, an eight-time champion at the event. He was most recently victorious in the race last year when National Treasure crossed the finish line first. Hence, one could dabble in conspiring a Baffert Wins prop bet for this year’s Preak’.

The 1st post-position began the PIM meets going 5-for-17 in dirt routes (29%) for ’24 thus far. So, there could be an annual inside speed bias in this year’s triune colt class to send a sprinter early, and worry about the rest later on…

So, as you can see… since 1976…

  • The k.Derby winner gets bamboozled on Black-Eyed Susans only a little better than 1 in 3 times (or: 36.17%).
  • More often, a k.Derby non-winning Entrant gets wreathed in Black-Eyed Susans as a blue-ribbon bouquet gone b.More 1st-place a bit mo’ than 4 in 10 times (or, 42.52%).
  • And as such, ‘fresh’ horses who are NOT operating on a galloping back-to-black formant, have only spiked the: vodka and bourbon shaken with peach schnapps, orange juice, and sour mix, about 2 times in 10.

This schools us in two important forecasting vectors… reversely from above… fresh legs do not matter as much as you might think; as this is more of a NC2A 3-point line or a shorter shot to net.

Secondly, this schools us that merely picking against the k.Derby victor (m.Dan here), hits you a Prop Bet winner right at a near 6.5 in 10 times clip. (Or, 63.83% of the time). (Further, the sometimes-lucrative thingy being… k.Derby winners tend to get their price (or: payout/R.O.I.) per se ‘bet down’ at the Preakness stakes. Therefore, typically offering you something semi-close to even money on betting the: “Field wins the Preakness Stakes” against the single shot k.Derby winning horse itself).

 

As this one is the sprint; the next one is the marathon and the previous one was the Field Day mixed entrant into multiple cross-trained events.
Finally, should the Heavens open up a mite or an outright bit… the horses who appear to not spit the sloppy bit are all sequestered on the outside. Two pretty fiar-to-middling mudders and at least one or two who know how to O.G. backyard Slip-n-Slide. At least in theory… all on the outside. Ginkgo -whatever it is called- dat.

-oOo-

Pimlico R13|Sat May 18|Post Time: 7:01 PM ET
The Grade 1 Preakness Stakes
Dirt 1± Miles|3YO|Purse: $2M|Beyer Par: 101

Eye understands this is primarily or primally an animalistic sport in-and-of itself. Granted. Nevertheless, you jus’ gotta think that my boy Bob Baffert is gonna pour all he humanly has into this second leg of the ’24 Triple Crown after getting his binary ban trinary extended here. Be that anthropomorphic of me or not.

Trainer George Orwell
recall…

“All animals are created equal.”

“But some are more equal than others.”

Muta may or may not be peerless here, altho’ his vitals equal not less than a Top-2 horse. Some might say not less than Top-2 and some might say he is the one to beat.

Or, at least they did…

As I was very close to aurhouring a very short Great Muta stylized Preakness preview and being done with it. As Triple Crown favorites get dethroned here mo’ often than any other leg of this 3-way-dance. As in, 7 of the last 8 Preakness faves have been, upset.

As you can see mathematically (Σ) up above… what was a one clear-cut pick/bet is now a very hard to parce ’24 Preakness field.

Several good horses remain in play here… five in point of fact. Nevertheless, that is the hard to split mane point here. This one went from a clear one to a muddled one; same as the Friday sloppy-track conditions up in Old Line State itself.

In a now rather Orwellian or equalized-looking field to me…

💯

🏇

The Call(s):

  • Black Eyed Susan:
  • Corposo to Show, (1u).

  • Preakness Stakes:
  • Muta to Show, (3u).
  • Imagination to Show, (1u).
  • Tuscan Gold to Show, (1u).

 

#wimps!
Preakness=???
please support the VT F.C.A.!!!

LETS GO!

Hokies!

 bourbonstreet**

 

 

 

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