Duke @ Virginia Tech basketball preview: (100% FREE!)

#1 R.P.I. Duke @ #167 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:

TV coverage: 9pm, ESPN
Vegas line: VT+13
o/u=143,5
$-line: bet $9.5o on Duke to win $1, bet $1 on VT to win $6.50

Smart and rich……….

Virginia Tech men’s hoops is getting better. I’m sure of it. Just ask at U.N.C. and at NC.State; where we were one regulation point away from a twin set of very upsetting road victories. Just ask Maryland who effectively beat us by two shots and france and Georgia Tech to whom we staked early game leads. Virginia Tech men’s hoops is also getting healthier and therefore deeper. Just ask Marshall Wood’s foot. And yet although that all reads well and good enough … close is not close enough. Virginia Tech men’s hoops is not a little bit preggers nor have they let been able to break the seal on netting a W since o1.19.

Yes, we have improved, and yes it’s still true. If my Aunt Kim had nutz and a bolt she’d be my Uncle Tim.

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades the last time I checked and right now, with every single passing L, we are getting closer and closer to playing the 2013 opener with a 15 game L streak on our O&M hands. Duke may not help that; although Virginia Tech historically gets sky-high to play Duke (and U.N.C.) and that gives me at least a little hope.  

Duke at a glance:

  • 7th in 3 point field-goal percentage (40.4%)
  • 13th in Scoring Margin (+13 ppg)
  • 13th in scoring offense (78.1 ppg)
  • 22nd fewest turnovers per game (11.2)
  • 27th in field goal percentage (47.2%)
  • 213th in rebounding margin (-0.9)

Duke Frontcourt:
N.B.A. pros=2 (M.Plumlee and Kelly)
Injuries=1, Ryan Kelly (F, 6`11“ 230 senior, play-making facilitating Forward, 13.4 ppg, 5.4 rebounds on 52% from downtown and 1.7 blocks, tremendous improvement/upside here)

Mason Jar 1o1:

Mason Plumlee is the co-star of a three-headed monster that has now been reduced to halves sans Mr. Kelly. Mason is the middle Plumlee of a family that surely knows how to grow kids. 6`10“ 235 lbs. worth of senior year baller who scores a team leading 17.5 ppg while pulling down a simultaneously team-leading 10.4 boards on a team leading 60% from the field. That’s 60% after previously breaking his left-wrist. Get the picture? This kid leads and where this particular Plumlee leads Duke will follow. This from the kid who only won 3 Indiana state championships and was only the 10th ranked baller overall coming outta the Hoosier state before being named team Captain this year. That does not suck; neither does his Duke.edu efforting as Mason is an all-A.c.c. selection both on and off-court alike. Then there is the fact that Mason is a bit more athletic than most would give him credit for at first blush (ses: PIC); as you will note he is closing in on 200 career dunks and he tends to play above the rim. He is also on pace to finish with over 1,000 points and north of 1,000 rebounds. That’s what I call an all-round contributor who can handle his business at both ends of the court. In fact, if I had to name drop a kid who might beat out our very own Erick Green, for A.c.c. Player of the Year honors, you’d have to short-list Mason as he is in the top-5 in four different major A.c.c. categories (Points, Rebounds, FG%, and Blocks if you are keeping score at home.

Amile Jefferson also starts upfront for Duke in the 3-guard Dukie look sans Mr. Kelly. Jefferson is a 6`8“ 195 lb. Philly string-bean freshman frontcourter who is possibly starting a year too quick in terms of power-conference raw metrics. Though not so much when it comes to highlight reel springy finishing plays as this kid is the show and he knows how to show-off indeed. Jefferson is also a kid that Coach K has already called a “winner” and he is likewise described as being a freaky individual player who is willing to subsist by putting the team first. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before? Me neither. Jefferson nets you 4.3 ppg and gets you 3.4 boards with .6 blocks. Now, do be clear, that’s only off of 13 minutes of P.T. (playing-time) on average and that from a kid with well above average talent. Being the 3rd ranked power-forward (who is trapped in a S/F’s body) outta high school says so. And if this kid ever mixes in a steak and a protein shake, look out! As he clearly has bucu room to fill-out and eventually fill-in as an all-A.c.c. kinda talent before his career is all said and done.

Duke Backcourt:
Association pros=1 (Seth Curry. maybe Cook)
Hurts=zilch

Seth Curry, is, related. And this just in, rain just called and said: “…I’m all wet.” And oh by the way; he’s pretty good just in case you missed it. 6`2“185 lbs. worth of what should have been O&M legacy senior year baller. Yes, Seth may be the lesser of the three hooping Curry’s; though he’s still prolly spicy enough to merit all-A.c.c. or no less than second-team at such. And guess what? He can shoot; 42% from range and 83% from the charity-stripe says so. All of that conspires to give Dell’s other son a 17 ppg average as a shooting-guard compacted into a point-guard’s body. Now mix in 2.3 boards, a steal, and a whole lotta big game experience and suddenly you have a very complete looking A.c.c. backcourter on your hands. Likewise his 19u gold-medal, likewise the fact that he was last in high school in 2008 –that all means that your have a lead-guard who is battle-tested and therefore battle-ready. Seth is a deceptive athlete with a very quick first step, and he has dabbled in the point position which allows him to swap-meet as needed in the Duke backcourt. Ditto his quick footwork and quick hands on defense which make this explosive scorer a more comprehensive player than his glossy looking offensive package would suggest.

Quinn Cook is a 6`1“ 175 lb. sophomoric point-guard from the District (of Columbia). 12.5 ppg, 4 boards and a team lading 5.8 assists is a pretty phat looking stat-line to me. Now mix in a likewise team leading 1.8 steals per game with 86% FT shooting and 41% from beyond the arc and suddenly you have an extremely complete player on your hands. You might very well have the best Pt.Guard in the whole A.c.c. on your hands as well. A 2.41:1 assist to turnover ratio is about as efficacious as it gets at the D-1 level these days; and his Team U.S.A. 17 and under gold medal is about as valuable as it gets in international terms. (said medal has a street value of $764). A 2011 McDonald’s All-America selection and only the 37th ranked kid outta high school who does not want for swag’ (or confidence). Cookie is a pass-first throwback point-guard who can create off the dribble for his teammates or for himself with either hand if need be. Something of a streaky shooter in the past, that now deploys a 3-ball that has improved a bit this year via some extra strength and conditioning work. Ditto his now healthy knee that he hurt (again) during the summer leagues right before his freshman year — all that from a kid with the toughs to postpone his knee surgery during his scholastic senior year just to finish the campaign.

The other Dukie backcourt is 6`4“ 185 lb. rook’ (rookie) Rasheed Sulaimon. Rasheed is the latest pure shooter to ink with Duke and you leave him open at your peril as his range can prove to be perilous indeed. Rasheed shoots 39% from 3-ponit land and as good as that is, he’s kinda/sorta the least great shooting Dukie backcourter this year; if you can believe that. In point of fact, it has been said that Rsaheed is the best pure shooter on the Duke campus since the days of J.J. Redick. This kids range is the gym … if he’s in it, he’s open. Rasheed is a H-town (Houston Texas) baller who spurred the Lonestar state to come ball at Duke. Rasheed was merely the #1 overall shooting-guard in America coming outta Texas. He too already enjoys his very own gold medal and he too is another student-athlete who can score in terms of G.P.A. (3.56) and in terms of hoops (at twelve ppg).

Duke Bench: (2-deep less Kelly)
Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston routinely come in off the Dukie pine; even if they could almost assuredly start in Blacksburg, Va. Ty is a 6`1“ 190 lb. junior year District of Columbia or quasi Commonwealth escapee. Ty’ took over the starting-point last season and was projected to continue in the same capacity this year; even if he subs in off the Duke bench at this stage of the twenty-thirteen campaign. Ty is a pesky hard-nosed on the ball defender who strength is found in his being physically strong, and his textbook footwork. Ty nets you 3.5 ppg and gets a couple of rebounds and assists alike off the Duke bench. He is also second in steals with 1.4 swipes to go with his serviceable range from the outside at 36% from distance. Ty is a crowd favorite and he is willing to burn the floor and do what it takes when it comes to sacrificing his body and taking one for the team. Josh is a 6`7“ 235 lb. slightly shorter power-forward with a chiseled physique. Josh gets you 2.5 ppg and 2.1 boards in relief off the Duke pine. Josh gives coach K an all-Virginia bench as he himself is from Fredericksburg, Va. Josh is a throwback baller who is not afraid of hard work. Josh is a vocal Energizer Bunny kinda guy who will work the offensive-glass as he has added size and strength every year down in Durham Carolina. A former Virginia high school Player of the Year as a junior who was the Maryland Player of the Year as a senior! This from the 33rd ranked player coming outta high school overall.

After that Duke gets a few spot minutes from Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee. Alex is a bigger/stronger kid after r-shirting last year. The 6`8“ 22o lb. r-freshman is getting 2.1 ppg and 1.2 boards in only 5 minutes and change. Alex has a skill set that has  been compared favorable to legacy Mike Dunleavy; and this after having to accept the r-shirt after taking a hard-fall or a spill so severe last preseason that he needed the entire year off. Such leaves my verdict out a bit on the 37th ranked high school recruit just two years ago. Marshall is a lot of things including being a Plumlee, the third one to ink with Duke I you are keeping nepotistic score at home. This Plumlee stands in a 6`11“ and weighs-in 225 lbs. after taking last year off in his own right. Marshall pulls down .6 boards and splashes home .2 ppg. Marshall runs the floor well, he aggressively attacks the post and he only won four state championships up in Indiana. The entire Plumlee family has played something somewhere at sometime or another; and reads like an honor roll of family tree success; props on that.

The real reason neither legacy Curry kid came to Vah.Tech ... is???

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Conclusion(s), illation, OPT digits:
(thought continuance from the Header) As in I’m hopeful that we are catching a Duke basketball team that is stretching its almost de facto #1 seed legs a bit right before tourney time. I’m hopeful that everyone is sleeping on the fact that coach J’s boys are rightfully playing better indeed. I’m hopeful that a late night Cassell Coliseum crowd will be all juiced up and feeling no 11-14 pain vs. #6 and 23-3 overall Duke. I am hopeful that the longer network TV timeouts and R&R oriented use of the same by coach J’s will purchase us a some time, some space in this one. I am also hopeful that Eddie and Wood continue their improved play and I am hoping that Ro.Brown can make a “3” with something other than a pencil.

Koach K:

Recall I was the only writer out of 7,000,000,000 peeps in the world to pick Virginia Tech to shock North Carolina and that prediction was off by precisely one single late-game Erick Green miss. Duke is better than U.N.C. and yet Duke is at home, in our house. Here’s hoping we at least manage to make this one competitive and that the aforementioned improvements actually continue to improve.

***

Duke is (per se) only a .5oo road team; so that’s encouraging, to an extent. And the encouragement basically ends there. As the most recent 5-game trends are about as bad as you can think. FG percentage margin favors Duke by an absurd 19%, 3-point percentage margin by 16%, FT percentage by 14% and rebounding margin by +4. Though as you can see, Duke just ain’t quite Duke down low sans Mr. Kelly; whose presence of his absence is a real tournament foible -if not spoiler- for Coach K and company to tackle down the road. Duke is also o for their last one, and that’s were the P.A.T.T.(y)-cake party ends; and the likely O&M pitter-party begins.

The Forum Guide itself is such a F.E.M.A. disaster area that I stopped calculating it off of the U.N.C. game alone –which incidentally predicted a 17 point Duke victory; just in case you are still reading.

Only real lifeline or caveat I can nominate here is shooting. If Virginia Tech’s suddenly heated up while Duke’s suddenly chilllaxed, we might have a chance to hang around and steal this one late. And coach J’s boys do favor the swifter coach K tempo or style of play.

After all, “…IF is the middle word of life.” –Dennis Hopper Apocalypse Now-

Virginia Tech=65, Duke=83

LETS GO!

HOKIES!

bourbonstreet**

5 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. I’m not sure what the Forum guide is, or how it’s calculated, but does it factor in OT? I guess the +17 comes from us losing to UNC by 12 and Duke beating them by 5 but in reality we were tied with UNC at the end of regulation. That may be way too simplistic – just curious.

    1. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh, a thoughtful poster.

      The Forum Guide is from legendary Brit’ boxing writer Graham Houston fame.
      It compares how teams/individuals fared head-to-head vs. common opponents.

      Kinda like the transitive property crossed with Line-of-best-Fit.

      It is regression analysis and most every year; it has been very solid.
      This year; the numbers are so overwhelming bad; as to be way more than +/- 2 or even 3 standard deviations. So I’m (mostly) just trying to go with the most recent game and bounce my numbers off of that. (instead of all games summed up together)

      HTH’s
      b.street

    1. Try it now Gal.
      (I was in there editing and maybe that hung it up?)

      HTH’s
      b.street

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