#135 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #4o R.P.I. Georgia Tech:
And yes, I just gave new meaning to assonance itself.
The other Tech here is hosting this one and checks in at 11 up and 6 down.
Actually both Tech’s check in at 11 up and 6 down, though I …meander…
So this one is, say it with me yet again: “pretty evenly matched.”
Said that last game.
Saying that again.
As prognosticinti check-marks are hard to come by in games like this.
Read on to find out… why?
Georgia Tech at a glance:
- 20th in Rebounding Margin (+8.8)
- 27th in offensive rebounding (13.69 orpg)
- 30th in Assist:Turnover ration (1.43:1)
- 34th in 3 point FG percentage (38.5%)
- 334th in Turnovers force (10.31 tfpg)
- NO injuries listed (thank God!)
GT Returning Starters=3
- No, not that political economist #2 Adam Smith, our (former) very own wvu-killar, 6’1” 170 lb. g-senior and Jonesboro, Ga. native one #2 Adam Smith. Who is listed as Lindy’s Top Shooter in the A.c.c. pre-season! Remember him? Streaky scorer; maligned defender now working on a graduate degree at the other Atlantic Coast Tech. His bio’ says he is pursuing his Master’s degree in Music Technology with a Music Production and Multimedia concentration at Georgia Tech. Not sure what you make with that? Maybe you profess music? Although I do know that’s 2 more musical degrees than I hold and I wanna say: “thank you” to this a.Smith for offing wvu nearly all by yourself two seasons ago. However, and fast-forward to now and we see (nearly) the same Adam Smith playing for a different Tech. A team leading 14.8 ppg this year for g.Tech and a team leading 13.4 ppg last year for the real v.Tech. Adam has had a pretty fair to middling collegiate career, he will finish with 2 degrees and somewhere over 1,000 total varsity points. He is shooting a team leading 47.1% from distance and defense still ain’t his thing with five total steals and zero blocks thus far. And he can still go off on any given nite as he has just logged three games at 20 or more points and one game at 30 or more points in his last five.
- P/F and 6’8” 269 lb. human battleaxe #0 Charles Mitchell is the stinging good muscle on the inside and his game has muscularity indeed. A bulky looking powerhouse inside player who scores close and hits the board –and if need be, you; literally. As this #0 is a legit thumper down low in the paint. You wanna try to draw a charge here be my guest; I’ll be the one helping find your teeth after you do. That being said, Mitch’ does actually deploy a few credible moves in the key; for which his burly game gets weak-sauce credit(s). 13 ppg and 11.3 boards in the A.c.c does not suck, neither does 55.3% high voltage P/F shooting in and around the basket. This guy is a match-up problem and oh what he could do with just a little more of an offensive skill set. As he’s prolly a fringe overseas Pro’ as is.
- Senior year Marcus Georges-Hunt is barely second in scoring at 14.8 ppg as a 6’5” 218 lb. Two who just underwent surgery to repair a broken fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot on March 16. I’d say that ~15 ppg on 1.8 to 1.9 good feets counts. The book here reads versatility and length, as Georges-Hunt is a tough match-up at the 2 and possibly even when he slides over to play the 3, or S/F spot. This was however the second-break to his Walton ‘esque fragile right-foot as he snapped the very same plant back in 2014. God bless on that. Has had a pretty okay college career after a very good scholastic tenure. May not have lived up to all the national ranking hype coming outta high school as 100 cents on the dollar goes. As the only real rap here is range on his J, which is up to 32% from beyond the arc this campaign.
- 6’8” 260 lb. P/F and final season r-senior Alabama transfer Nick Jacobs is another thumper down low. 10 ppg with 5.6 rpg. Nick is known for being steady. He gave ‘bama about 10 and 5 for three seasons of hoops; and now he gives Georgia Tech about the same. Another legit big-body down low, not a pure athlete by any definition, does get a lot out of what he gots and he does have a soft-touch to go with the ability to block a shot or two. Solid guy, role-player, has credibly risen to his level as a collegian hoopster goes.
- All of my preseason mag’s have Georgia Tech tabbed 14th or worse in a 15 horse A.c.c. race. You see what I mean…
- the generic rap reads: not enough scoring to make an upward move; although maybe just a little than where they were last year as a hoops club.
- did not see a true Alpha here. Did see 3 to 4 pretty good guys, no greats, and I additionally did see a real real drop off after the Top-4 ends. Four C+ to B- guys and not much behind them.
Tech Bench: (depth=5 ) 6’10” 240 lb. C and second year Ben Lammers does lead g.Tech in swats with 1.7 bpg off the pine, and Ben is not even listed in any of my preseason magazines, if that tells you anything. Fatigue is not a problem here as coach Brian Gregory shuffles his deck with 5 different sub’s night-in and night-out. 3 G’s, a Swing and a true-Center reads happy enough | nevertheless, they are all averaging 5.5 ppg or less, which is less than enough.
Illation, conclusion (s) and OPT digits:
The takeaway here is… Georgia Tech is 90% at home this season, for a reason(s).
Been a while since my 36 hours of calc’ and stats were haunting McBryde Hall and the other Dr. Crittenden, however; you need not make calculus on that. 9 outta 10 is pretty dang solid hosting footing. Though let us break that down a bit mo’… shall we?
Georgia Tech is right at 3% better from the floor, o.4% better from distance, and no, as in zero percent better from the charity stripe at home. So the these Yellow Jacket offensive mark-ups are a paper tiger indeed. The Defensive (alleged) bull-markets are closing at just about the same. 2.2% better overall and and o.4% better in defense of the three. So yes, it is true, Georgia Tech is a better basketball team at home, it is just that they are not *that* much better at home. Or not so better as to put this one outta reach, in particular off of the metric below…
Then there is this little nugget, although g.Tech may indeed be .9oo as a win percentage goes at home, they are .25 or 25% in their last four scrums once they started playing some real (Atlantic Coast) teams for a change. However, there are two metrics here that should concern you… In each teams’ most recent five games: Georgia Tech is shooting 9% better from range as a team than Virginia Tech is, and defensing the three-ball 9.4% better on top of that. Additionally, Georgia Tech has been the more lock-down stop-unit of penta late, with just under 4% less shots allowed.
Or in other words, if Georgia Tech is that hot from distance, and defends just a little better, this may be one tough visiting row to hoe.
And Buzz has just opened up 3-1 in the Ac.c. winning -to his credit- three games on 5 shots. Can’t say life on the outcome razor’s edge seems likely to last to me…
(58% confidence interval)
Virginia Tech=66, Georgia Tech=73