Paddock static:

• Cox Brad has four, that’s a whopping (4) entrants here. Might be worth some kinda Trainer Prop wager just 20% ’cause.
• Curiously enuff… Todd Pletcher is only 2-62 (3%) at winning the Kentucky Derby with none of his horses finishing in the top three since 2o18. And he may be the Apex Trainer sans the silver fox Bobby Baffert and all his (alleged) chemical/testing ills.
• Aye, UAE Derby winners are o-18 in their history running at the Kentucky Derby {née: Derma Sotogake, I’ma lookin’ @you).
• …and do not forgets, 32o (1-4oo) is the average DIST or distancing digit in horsing-around. Likewise, 32o is your magic WET or mudder number if/when it percips on the KY-blue-bloods, grass. (However, some favor 28o or higher for at least modest positive slippy/sloppy consideration(s) here FYI).
• From: 1980 up to 2011, only four, that’s only (4) faves won the Run for the Roses! However, since 2o12 -and the point system implementation featured below- six, that’s (6) faves have won, with 2 faves places and 1 fave show!
• Post time for the Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.

“…the need for speed!” —Goose

Although I do not know if this is truly an epic Kentucky Derby field velocity-wise. I do know it is the best speed field in several seasons and I also know it has semi-good T&F shod game at the worst. There are several movers here folks… there are pacers (gunners) and there are late(r)-runners here as well.

Not less than B— speed dots this field and there is R.P.M. or gearing (early vs. later sprinters) here to boot. Neat field tempo-wise… the only ask is… just how much celerity clarity is there in this one here?

As in… the pace of this year’s Kentucky Derby will not resemble last year’s suicidal sprint… meaning: I do not see the send the rabbit/rocketeers or Homer Hickam’s here. To me… this eliminates last year’s whacko 80-to-1 all-time Win hit upside that typically hits early, often, and late houses’ head.

If you ask me -and you did via reading these very words- if you asks me… you will see an early leader (possibly, 2) fade with 1, 2, or maybe even 3 strategic or patient late runners stalking (pun and foreshadowing alike intended) their claim to everything’s coming up roses ‘down the stretch’…

Derby Herbbie?

So, to me… there are several quality Speedy Gonzales horses here just in time for Caballo
de Seis-o. Granted. There could be some Usain’s who wanna bolt early here.

The caveat or catch-44 for me was… only one (Two Phils) ‘capped has parimutually enjoying some distancing bloodlines to augment said speed lines itself. Almost as if this ’23 Derby was a better construct to make fo’ one helluva a gunning Preakness Stakes race. Although there I go again… always putting the horse out in front of the… cart.

…meaning… I sure wish I could find the objective science-fact DIST backing for: Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Skinner, and maybe even the next-mentioned: Derma Sotogake as well. ’cause they did have legit kick at 10f (furlongs). Tho’ how much they have left in the elongated tank their maiden time at 12f’s or a mile-n-a-quarter remains to be shown.

–oOo–

And in addition to that… there are peeps I do put respect on telling me that this Bushido horse (Derma Sotogake (Jpn)) could be their best 日本酒 or saké look-in; well, ever. (NOT sure I buy that— though one or two pony pickers do). As this pan-pacific imported horsey does have his career-best(s) all on dirt and that bodes well here. (Additionally, Japanese breeding has really leveled up in the last decade give/take. Same as the deep-pocket Saudis… they are yearning or Yenning their way to the top here).

Natheless, he is trying to become the first Japanese e·quine to win the Derby (o-2), the first UAE Derby winner to win the Derby (o-18), and now the first horse to win from post No. 17 in the history of the race (o-43, including po’ tho’ awesome-sauce, outsized Big Brown and Point Given about 2-decades back).

As spoilers go… Kingsbarns has only run three times, winning all of them by a combined 13 lengths.

…and St.Eligius (Patron Saint of Horses) bless and intercede.

It has been a pretty sad week over in Lexington, KY.

The Call(s):

So, and too little ole me?

The Oaks and the Derby were/are pretty heterogeneous -at least on paper- when DRF/Brisnet vis-à-vis hitting them both Excel spreadsheet up…

On the Friday hand… the Oaks (seemingly) enjoyed a good deal more distancing pedigrees with so-so-to-decent speeding itself.

On the Saturday hand… the Derby (seemingly) enjoys a good deal more speeding pedigrees with so-so-to-decent distancing itself.

On the Sunday hand… it seems to me that the Preakness and the Belmont should thin things out entrant or field-count wise and the associate Sprint then a Marathon wise for all of us. This *should* only serve to help sort things out for all of us. So, it stands to reason that a reasonable pony-picker could pick the Beamer Barn and punt this one here and let (Budweiser) gain 2nd and 3rd leg of the ’23 Triple Crown “field-position” traction for all of us.

 ***

Then to muddle-huddle all of that all the further you ask(s)?
Several of the leadHers for Friday had limited -to no real- DIRT experience.
Same as several of the (seemingly) front-runners for Saturday seems rather ‘synthetic’ in a word to me.

Nevertheless… here is what I was able to glean… (albeit with just 1u assigned to SHOW bet)!

• Two Phils (rates the best distancing runner in the field). 1u.
• Angel of Empire (best accelerator in the field). 1u.
• Skinner (was the best composite in the field). 1u.
• Tapit Trice (best speed figure itself). 1u.
  

 

#wimps!

#BabyYodaMustDie!