Virginia Tech football… seems to be, is trying to, and yet still may or may not actually open for September business in close to a few fortnights worth of weeks.
The Hokies and the Atlantic Coast Conference are at least trying to ‘push through’, get there— and yet only Coach God knows how that one will go. Nevertheless, and in the meantime… we can dabble in one tactical (Running-Backs) and a few strategic or program vectoring topics (ex. Recruiting). And see if we can figure out where we are going from where we have recently just been. So, without any further adieu, here is the backfield mixer and the middle third of what is now gonna be a three-part R.A.T.T. Virginia Tech statistical analysis and insider whisper driven recruiting overview! Thanks at readers, Stay Safe | Pray Safe!
Running Backs:
Honestly? Pretty dang good here men!
Deepest Rb cadre set since the last set of true-blue O&M Hite era Stallions. Now, this 2020 Fu’fensive Rb crew may or may not be as top-heavy elite as super-alpha Rb’s go— or like say 2009 (Williams + Wilson with Qb1 T-mobile keepers) went…
Although, it might just enjoy more overall tradecraft variety as competing/complementing skillsets go. And we have our deepest oLine prolly going back to the Nebraska coach Grimey Orange Bowl crew. That, and we may just be poised to field our alpha starting oLine- since DeChris, Nosal, Lanier, Brooks, and Miller, all final campaign matriculated under C.News’.
And some say our most talented offensive baller overall could just be our Rb2 (Blackshear, eligibility pending). With fellow incoming transfer (Herbert) poised to get the better day-to-day or fulltime worker-bee starting nod at Rb1. Plus a returning King, Holston, and a handoff receiver sleeper pick in Gray. All of this with pretty dang close to running a full-fledged déca’ or 10-deep upfront on the Vice Squad (where downhill blocking or run-fits are indeed north of our passing-cup: (checking in at a very so-so looking 74th 2019 best). AND… with not less than three, that’s (3) Qb’s, all of whom are more than entirely capable of running any spread-set Veer elements or being completely (see the pun?) literate in their Read-Option fits… and guess what my fellow Techmen?
We really should improve off of our entirely decent looking 49th best rushing-O national attack; which was still solid enough for 5th best in A.c.c. ground-gaining work.
Did I mention that we will still be sallying forth in the All Charmin Conference, yet?
So, there is all of ^that^. We have at least 2-3 options both internally and to the edge. We have another 2-3 guys (counting Rb’s ➕ Qb’s here) that are pretty well versatile enough to hit plunge plays, off-tackles, outside-zones. Then mix in East-West slickster Wr’s Turner and Robinson; who could very well ‘kick rocks’ on horizontal stretch elements for in excess of more than 363-yards this year.
And did I mention the always namby-pamby shock-troop inviting All Charmin Conference, yet?
mo’ recruiting crosstabs, conclusions, confu’sions, and mythperceptions (Part II of III):
So, from what I overall exhaustively big-picture National Recruiting rankings literally studied and cataloged and cross-tabbed vis-à-vis (recruiting rankings vs. performance, i.e. wins) from stem to stern…
Eye found… that basically 300 or more total accumulating nationalized class rank recruiting points is necessary to punch that quad-playoff ticket. Last year incoincidentally enough, four teams busted that tricentennial mass. And the 5th team (295-points) was actually your fourth-place quad-play-off qualifier. So, it’s pretty much is a tricentennial or 300-point quad-playoff barrier; or you are second-tier and working for a traditional New Years’ day caliber of Bowl Game. As the old-school (circa: 1966 founded) 700 Club may be gone, although the D-1 300 recruiting point club is likely quad-payoff cover-charge elitist here to stay.
After the 300-point barrier, we see a pretty tight looking grouping/clustering of second-tier 290s to virtual 250’s recruiting point squads that likewise inconidicentally enough, pretty much define your Top-20 D-1 football teams. With a p=.9 or a virtual ninety-percent chance (90%) year-in and year-out. (p=probability in stats).
After that, you can still be pretty good to kinda good on a 240-210-point recruiting diet, although the p (probability) of winning in Top-30 terms decreases to p=.86. As variability and the need for good-breaks and great-health or an epic Kicker begins to rear its final countdown W/L outcome head here.
After this Top-30 cluster, things begin to drop… I repeat, “things begin to drop“… and here is where it gets Good to Great^-1 (James C. Collins’ epic book) or rather modest to middleocore in a surefire hurry!
As there is no mo’ 200-point recruiting tallying teams once you cross the 35th in the nation recruiting barrier. As the diff between 36th and 66th was only approximately 30-recruiting points. For comparison’s sake… the diff between 1st best and a mere 6th best in the recruiting nation was nearly the same 30-point delta (Δ). For further comparison’s sake… the diff’ between 1st and 30th place itself was a staggering and seemingly insurmountable virtual 100-point delta (Δ) bang right on the chin!
Do you see what I mean here gents?
Because what I mean is… once you cross or drop southward of the 35th in the nation recruiting total point barrier, you had better be coaching (the verb) your Noll raised to the Landry power ass off!
Seriously… as you are right on the barrier of even Lombardi -esque coaching the verb could only do so upward bound much.
Talent(s) >>> Coaching (v.)
And you’d prolly need to r-shirt and every 4th/5th year matriculate a {sic: Coach} Chris Coleman savvy upperclassman heavy squad. With Good to Great health and likewise with a four-leaf-clover or longshot quad-playoff end-game breaks. And that is just to have a sporting 10-point underdog @home chance to A+++ game punch with a visiting ‘Bama, or Clemson or L.s.u. inside of Lane when your team is once or twice a decade peaking.
–oOo–
Now, once we cross the 57th Winning Percentage barrier, and finish with marking positive records (i.e. we are fishing not catching >.5oo teams) —recruiting really begins to muddy the Duck Pond waters as you are comparing bruised oranges to wilted tangerines. As outcome variability itself is a very very very narrow thing in Talent terms at this stage. (i.e. Eye found the separation or distinction here to be statistically blurry at best and myopic at worst)
And once you cross the ~65th barrier in recruiting… you have to descend another staggering 50+ spots all the way down to a 117th in national recruiting rankings to cover the very same 30-point delta (Δ) or change in total recruiting points ranking!!! Giving new meaning to coach William Wallace’s: “…squabbling for the scraps from Longshank’s table” in spades.
And a Hokie’s gotta eat!!!
As no matter which clustering technique I choose here, it is hard to separate this much Venn Diagram overlapping between so-so to south of so-so teams.
Leaving very very little to distinguish, here.
Now, guess where we just were (in 2020 national recruiting terms)?
- No. 75th. (with 8 decommits!)
Now, we are a bit better in 2021 national recruiting terms— even sans the laughably bogus VT2TX Qb1 and Wr1 decommits…
- No. 51st. (with 4 decommits, so far!)
However, wvu is currently a sporty enough 32nd in the nation; and hooVa is an even sportier 26th in the whole D-1 shebang.
Does that rivalry square with any of you?
’cause that’s a rhomboid of round-peg square-hole insert hemorrhoid here to me.
Although at least we do have: (per Norm Wood): per Fu’: “We have players committed that nobody knows about, and we’re in it on a bunch more. So, I couldn’t be more excited.” —Coach Fu’
(thx @khakiblue for finding ^that^ for me!)
(and our 247 recruiting calculator suggests a +10 recruiting point expected gain for 2021)
***
Now, and although I cannot speak for you… if you ask me -and you did via reading these very words- well me and my committee of one? Well, we are starting to get pretty Fu’ contractual (2023 final season) outcome anxietized at the moment.
As in pretty dang talent (or national recruiting-point ranking) anxietized regarding where we will: 2022-2024 outcome W’s & L’s R.A.T.T. be?
Or in other words… unless we do have a high-octane rocket baller who can individually conduct 2022-2024 and yell: “all abroad”?
Where do we go from, here?
(Tell me in the FREE space down below)
The college football Rich get… richer!
Notice the accruing of true D-1/P-5 recruiting wealth! As we now have not less than 15-teams with half of their recruiting classes listed as Blue-Chip-Ratio qualifiers!
Per 247’s truly A+++ epic R&D work… in 2014, no team was above 75% in blue-chip ratio. In 2015, only Alabama was north of 75%. In 2016 and 2017, it was still just Alabama.
2018 saw Ohio State break the seal and enter into that super-elite three-quarters of a recruiting class chip status.
However, 2019 saw three of the top-4 highest blue-chip-recruiting ratios ever in the history of history itself! And 2020 already has the newest 1st, 2nd, and 4th highest rates of blue chips ratios ever awarded. As this thoroughbred horse has not left the quad-playoff barn, this thoroughbred horse has Stakes racing run away and hid!
Accordingly… we are seeing a legit 1:1 or 100% correlation here too… as so far you have to tally >50% Blue-Chip-Recruits (B.C.R.’s) to win an MNC in the last decade! The next best tier of 40% blue-chip-ratio schools (two schools in total) did not even get you close.
Yes, sports fans… the NC2A tax-bracketology is escalating.
The cost of doing business vs. the D-1 Armani suits is going way-way up.
And yet if you are Blessed to be numbered among the D-1 elites? Business is not just great.
Business is bull-of-da-woods boomin’! All-time pigskin commerce in point of fact.
And this is now gonna be one freaky hard blue-chip-ratio ceiling to crack.
Ergo, therefore, to Whit, go on and chamberlain (or treasure) your 10-win memories folks.
As the D-1 macroenvironment has truly… ¢hanged.
Recruiting Summary:
- You gotta be in that Top-5 haves recruiting point count if you wanna sniff the Quad-Playoff work. It (nearly) is as statistically sample, I mean as statistically simple as that. As this really is getting down to Hemmingway football or to have or have not.
- You gotta be at least be 6th-30th (give/take) to have a once a decade shot to land the humdinger or bell cow of an upset punch on just one of those penta-Tops. You will eat well here from 6th to 30th best, and you will get into your Conference title game once or twice per decade. And with any rabbits-foots or horseshoes and hand grenades luck, you might just nick a single Conference Championship victory once a decade or every 1.5 decades.
- After that and you can still be a winner sure enough. Although this is the habitat of 7 to 9-win teams extraordinaire. Dire Straits football or ♪”so far away from me.”♫
- Anything south of ^that^ and it gets plum serious, as the recruiting or raw talent differential between 6-win treading water down to 4-win partially submerged teams really ain’t that buoyant on proverbial paper.
- And the difference between the bottom-20’ish doormat or cellar-dwelling teams and the worst 4-win teams really was way less than I expected Talent-wise. Just one good-break can vault you outta trampled status or just one bad-hop can get you stampeded like a champ.
Or to put it most sussciently… you do NOT wanna cross that Top-35 national college football recruiting barrier if you fancy yourself elite.
And after you cross the Top-57th recruiting barrier all bets are off.
As that is one slippery-(negative)-slope that will only become #HardToughSuck to surmount in the Quad-payoff and in the P5-conference TV contract revenue $treams flood plain era.
XXX‘s OOO‘s
^that’s^ the problem folks… and as we all know to do no more than to present a problem and walk-away is the Ellison Omega (Ε, Ω; or easily offended) butthurt realm of having done nothing better than to… complain.
Complaints or problems must be married to solutions… and from where I come from?
There are a few pliable and (hopefully) R.A.T.T. 24060 solutions to employ here…
- A pure systematic savant of a coach. I know A.c.l.’s everywhere are winching and winging as I type… tho’ you really do need a pure System Coach. And the more outlying or oddball his system is to prepare for on a short or even a regulation 5-day workweek the better! Call this the P.J. Georgia Tech Approach, tho’ also call it “Any port in a storm.” Or the Sailor’s Adage. And things have indeed been Tidewater choppy or wavelength irregular for years. Maybe this is gimmicky to some extent? Tho’ history records results and history is written by the VicTors. And Eye for one wanna get back to the VicTories. Although this approach must be the B.F.F. of patience (per massive schematic retooling), and prolly a year-one r-shirt Punt of sorts. (and honestly, how many have that much patience in what have you done for me lately 2020 MySpaceBook.selfie.me, terms?)
- The other lifeline I see is to stop-being color-blind to all things 7-5-7, Richmond and DeeCee and land a truly Qualified Minority punch right upside Bronco and uva’s pasty head. NO. Not another London Calling… a legit colorful mouthpiece big whistle, like say Dino Barbers up @Syracuse. All the mo’ so if he can handle an O or even a D all by his ownself. Nevertheless, we’ve got to get with reality here. And the reality is that our current r-state approach has been outfoxed at best and has subsequently fu’mbled our former alpha gridiron Commonwealth destination-school advantage away. (2a. could this be code for: j.Ham’???)
Either way… methinks that a really splashy Minority hire who is authentically qualified and can talk the walk could provide a textbook so-called: “Unique Competitive Advantage” and therefore provide bucu 1st-mover traditional backyard reentry recruiting points here. - Or, I suppose lightning-(in)-(a)-(bottle) could always strike twice? It has struck once in point of 1999 facts already. Tho’ please do let Fu’ know where to find his very own MV3 and C.Moore2! [email protected]
- “S.e.c.! S.e.c.! S.e.c.!”
Is this our one turnkey lifeline to better recruiting -through no fault and no credit of our very own- alike? (or are we no better than the next U.s.c.-East or Missouri? Or even worse… the next pummeled Vandy over in the South Eastern Conference?) - other??? (let me know down below, please!)
Because ontologically speaking, although the relationship between Fu’ and the more urban recruiting environments has not been outright abusive, it has been outright obtusive at best.
And botching to the point of lowering at worst.
The Catch-44 is… how do Fu’ and Co. catch VeeTee back-up?
That however is a matter for part three.
Coach God wiling…
“You can’t know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been…” –bourbonstreet
(PART III).
(poor) George Floyd is not helping any Fu’ture tense… (PART III).
Loading ...#wimps!
please support the VT F.C.A.!!!
“LETS GO!”
“Hokies!”
bourbonstreet**
Great article. Yes to overcome the have not issues versus the haves – VT needs a charismatic coach that can overcome those financial obstacles to build a team that can compete versus “snagging what we can get”. It honestly feels like this is the strategy last 2-3 years, as I cannot see some of the offer lists of these kids as being on our BigBoard. If the strategy is to build a program w redshirting, etc – I’m all for it, but you still don’t start w a board filled w ECU, Kent St, service academy, Tulsa targeted kids.
I’m not so sure race is the issue or making a Rooney Rule hire is the solution. I’m all for ANY charismatic smart strategic coach – no matter the color. Dabo, Mike Leech, and now Mack Brown are getting the top kids – Dino isn’t bringing top talent to Syracuse and we saw what happened w F$U when they went the minority route for the sake of minority route. If it’s JHam and he checks all the boxes I mention – I don’t care if he’s purple.
Thank you!
I appreciate that.
And to parrot what you said…
Coach Spock and I don’t care if he is… “green.”
Though Qualified Minority packs a bonus punch that W.A.S.P. guys just can’t/won’t.
(p.s. Eye would not bet the over on Whit ^here^, however… –that’s NOT
a colorful indictment, it is just not his Southern Comfort poster boy wheelhouse)
b.street
We certainly should hope that Fuente can recruit better, and that last year’s class doesn’t trend. We cant expect to get the blue-chip percentage enjoyed by the bloods. I just hope he can recruit solid players that are tough.
Play tough teams and punch them in the mouth, and if you lose that’s ok. Give me a tough team that doesn’t rollover. Play tackle football, not flag football. Learn to run the damn ball to extend drives and control the line of scrimmage.
Oh I fu’lly agry.
All Charmin Conference is begging for C.F.L. Bob & Doug “steamroller”
run you over type of ball. Always has been.
Totally available for such, too.
b.street