virginia football preview!

#86 R.P.I. Virginia Tech #43 R.P.I. virginia:

Today’s word of the day is… crater.


noun, or verb.

Word Genome: early 17th century (denoting the hollow forming the mouth of a volcano): via Latin from Greek kratēr ‘mixing-bowl’, from krasis ‘mixture’.

  1. a large, bowl-shaped cavity in the ground or on the surface of a planet or the moon, typically one caused by an explosion or the impact of a meteorite or other celestial body.
  2. a large bowl used in ancient Greece for mixing wine.
  3. Virgin Tech football giving in; come, 8 PM???

virginia Head CoachMarc Bronco Clay Mendenhall: age=55, (36–37 @uva and 135–8o overall); has a rep’ for defense, no-nonsense, strictness, quirkiness, and even more quirkiness.
i.e., the quirkiest. And for big-time long-view player development. (One of the best; here).
(Also, has a rep for rough/thuggy play… B.y.u. won: dirtiest S.I. team many a year
under this bronco-buster; no shite!)

Happy wife happy life.

Coach Bronco also has a rep’ for… bowling. Well, he did, up until three years ago, as Bronco Mendenhall (head) coached football teams had gone bowling 100% of the time. And yet guess hoo is going bowling; again? In addition to that, Bronco has a reputation for defense overall and the secondary in particular as he was an Fs and team captain for the Oregon State Beavers back in the mid 198o’s. Bronco has also placed a flashy 68 ex-players with the National Football League since 2oo5. He is also known for graduating his players, and ranking his former program seventh for most Academic all-Americans during his tenure at Brigham Young. His dad was a stalwart De for B.y.u. in the mid-1950s and his brother (Mat) started at De for the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. So clearly football is in his blood and likewise all over his sporting family tree. Bronc’ has tallied three conference titles and one conference Coach of the Year award (2008, Mt.West). He helped pioneer the modern era Spread-fighting blitz-happy 3-3-5 defensive scheme; which industrializes an Lb/S hybrid position in the hind-5.

With a track record of success at B.Y.U., a reputation for instilling order and accountability, and methods and metrics straight out of a stuffy reddest-state business management text, Bronco Mendenhall and his by the FOX News book ways and means have done about all anyone could do at his {sic: new} liberal arts school. As this no-nonsense coach may look like a very trumpeting or vanilla 7-5-7 pasty questionable fit; although -and to his credit- he’s been pretty colorblind after replacing a rather colorful (unqualified) tribal Minority hire. And to be quite direct; Bronco and his seemingly juxtaposed cultural fit are ahead of schedule here folks. So, props to Bronc’ for getting a big-M.A.C. style u.v.a. gridiron team into a bowl game threepeat, back-to-back-back. (prolly: a quad-peat at that… presuming of course…)

Mendenhall is married to Holly Johnston. They have three sons: Raeder, Breaker, and Cutter. Mendenhall is a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

uva 202o record: 5 up 5 down and 4–5 in the A.c.c.

 hooVa Defense: (starters back=9)

  • 121 in Total D. (+/- VT)
  • 122 vs. the run.
  • 96th vs. the throw.
  • 96th in Passing Efficiency D.
  • 27th in zone D!!!
  • 3 of 1o in dLine Havoc. The maginot line’s returning Sr. season De1 and De2 Adeeb Atariwa and Mandy Alonso seemed set to make the bookends better/deeper here. Alonso has rushed the passer semi-well; tho’ Atariwa has been out a few fortnights and appears done for the duration. Ng’s/Dt’s Jahmeer Carter, and Olasunkonmi Agunloye, and Nusi Malanin win you a lotta Scrabble points even if they don’t make your Qb1 scramble too much. As they stalemate well enough and that’s about that for now. As the only true-Ng, I see here is: Jordan Redmond. Tho’ as said, they keep the 2nd-layer shirts reasonable clean to roam and make plays and there are worse dirty thirty-four things you can 50-shades-of-uva, say. As depth was the preseason nag here. Dt1/Ng1: Jowon Briggs to Cincinnati really hurt upfront. Tho’ there is prerequisite 3-4 size/width to shoulder A-gaps here. Kinda stocky nearly lumpy looking on tape. Lotta shuffling and P.T. toggling of late as well… trying anything/everything they 3-4 to 40 looks can. Will zone-blitz (or drop) a bit at De too.
…kinda bad vs. worse. VERY!
  • 3.33 in 1o in Linebacking Havoc. Nick Jackson on the inside and Noah Taylor on the outside are emerging stars at linebacker, and OLb Elliott Brown has experience. Taylor in particular showcases a few northward tendencies on tape. Although uVa will feel the loss of Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier. Snowden led the team in sacks and tackles for a loss, despite missing the final two games due to an ankle injury. Nick Jackson is just solid all-’round has really produced in 2o21, as he has produced nearly 27% more stops than anyone else has and he’s recorded well enough in pass-fighting to boot. Good tackler here, might be a Hokie trapped in this kid trying to get (Full Metal Jacket) out. ILb is clearly less deep here. 2nd-layer is right-sized; nobody to really pick on here north-south-wise. IF, there is an alpha layer? Eye suppose this is it, like best looking at an ugly girl contest tho’. And not real tall on alacrity itself, nearly stiff looking at times.
uva base D Cover-2:
  • 3.5 of 1o in Secondary Havoc. 75% returned and that very same (as the oLine below) 3 in 4 coulda gone: ☮️ut and done something else, careerist, wise here. The secondary is a little dingy at Cb and at S alike. Electing to return defensive backs Nick Grant, De’Vante Cross and Joey Blount all stuck another year out. Blount (St.Philip bless, lottsa turned ankles for him); has scored very well and Grant has scored close to the same. Blount (no ‘Mel’ relation) is a bit of a chicken-hawk ballhawk at times too. The in: women, gender and sexuality is, a +6.9 major score from him as well. Cb2: Louisville’s Anthony Johnson has been at least adequate transferring in. Blount, Cross, and Grant will lead a secondary that also has experienced Corners Darrius Bratton, Jaylon Baker, Tenyeh Dixon, Johnson and Hayes, and Safeties Antonio Clary and Coen King. Did Eye mention the defensive backfield experience here yet? They can hear: “Jimi”. And they did score surprisingly well in: Passes Defended statistically. As the Cb’s have excellent size –Nick Grant goes 6′2″ and 2oo lbs., and De’Vante Cross is 6′3″ and 215– yet, and to keep hammering on this, they need to make more plays. As this is a nearly downright tallish defensive backfield, and they ain’t anything light in the wallet as well. Tighter man on the boundary side, looser or off-man wide-side. Even saw a few arrowheads in the rear… so to speak. (Cb and Nickel are both dented here, Coach God bless!) One Cb (#3) was better than the rest, after him take thy pick… with Blount being your clear-cut Alpha in hind-5 work.

    NOT a bad, Defender!
  • uVa D overall: Not exactly an epic one, is it? Not quite as bendy as in years past either. (Film-Study): lotta pre-snap thingys live here… as they are very flexy, in particular in the hind-5 or hind-6 coverage wise. Elevator pass/off looks and movement abound. uVa will blitz deal from the edge or ILb’s alike. Some Cover-2 (not Tampa-2 sans a true Mike) behind that. This is a forceful scheme more so than aggressive, as it tries to force you to make snap (pardon the sporting pun) bad-decision in haste. Early. Premature. Tho’, it can eff that up, if you block all of that, and hit it up in vacated spaces. Be that in front or deep behind. There is room here if/when all this fanaticism misses. Good D to roll out from and use pitch/ditch options on the edge too. uVa’s man coverage abilities are so-so at most, and their frontal run-fills were less than that. As there are some very abnormal or oblong openings here. Both E-W and N-S. uVa staggers a lotta things alignment-wise. Tackling is okay at best to start, softens or laxatives as it goes along. D can lack containment along the LOS (line-of-scrimmage) too. dLine seems or at least fights small at times too… might be able to lean/push/shove on them northwardly a bit for it.  dLine will over shift E-W pre-snap, and try for assignment confusion. Front-7 went dud and did not shed run-blocks well @Pitt. Not a very physical set of run-fills at all. Not a very kinetic or twitchy D, seems a bit static at times or wanting for burst in the hind-5 or so. Lotta gnats or ankle-biting on tackling; in particular in the open field. And did Eye hint that Pitt bullied their lunchroom a bit, yet? As they’ve allowed more than 2oo-yards rushing six times, and over 3oo-yards rushing twice. This in spite of mo’ 40 or even front looks of late.
  • uVa D ∑ (summary): returning D production=61% (95th most) Noah Taylor is your conflict defender here. This De/OLb hybrid is the only one to really flood your backfield northwardly on negative-halts The defense that fell off the 2o2o map at least returns experienced. As last year the hooVa halt-unit only allowed 443-yards and 30 points per game with a nightmare of a time slowing down passing attacks. This year… and you could dare to opine that: “The Song Remains the Same.” Last time there was a slew of takeaways, a decent run D –partly because some teams spent so much time throwing it– and it allowed 20 points or fewer four times. So, I guess there was that? And yet there were ten games. Again, it’s a veteran D that should be 2o21 better.
    LOL! It is actually, worse! In particular in ground-round gone total Treet or Potted Meat. As suspect as the hooVa D was last year? It has gotten even worse this campaign. Some of this is the high-scoring madness of some opponents having to chase. Tho’, still, they are good at nothing whatsoever right now as traditional Run or Pass-fills go. Nadda. None. Nil. Zilch. Zero. Zip.
    Save some rather downright and entirely shocking Red-Zone-D saves inside their very own 2o-yardline! As they do stiffen a bit on higher play-count drives against. NOT vs. lower-play count opposing O drives as you will read now/next…
    The caveat being… ISOppp+ allowed or big-plays. This has been a near 20-game running bugbear and downright grizzly at times for uVa.
    Finally, they seem to be playing 2o22 already— lottsa depth-charting up/down here recently.

Beta Mining 1o1:
uVa tallied like ho’s here. Unsurprisingly, less Drive Efficiency -which was average- and Run-Efficiency which was a near shocking highest possible C+++. Tho’ these had the look-n-feel of early year betterment to me. And teams have to abandon the run to throw-fit the uVa scoreboard chase. This skews their Beta’s all the mo’.

Reminder: only Beta had Miami correct last week FWIW!

Defensive letter-grade:

hooVa Offense: (returning starters=9)

  • 4th in Total O.
  • 97th in ground O.
  • 2nd in aerial O.
  • 35th in Passing Efficiency O.
  • 57th in zone O.
  • 50th in completion%.
  • O overall: Qb1: a Koufax southpaw slinger: Qb1 Brennan (concussion: earlier last year: St.Zoe bless! ribs: recently this year: St.Adam bless!) Armstrong. As the real Qb1 goes, this Bren’-gun is a r-Jr. by way of Shelby Ohio (having beaten out the seemingly likely to start S.E.C. refugee: grad-transfer from Miss.State one Keytaon Thompson). And seeing that Thompson did not transfer to uva just to sit? You have to be curious to see just what Armstrong brings to the wahoo passing table. Brennan is a ginger (not a Mary Ann). He comes with a known tag and per familiarity with virginia’s system advantage. Either way… Armstrong is said to be quite the altruistic Qb1 with a Coach God Given “feel for the game”. hooVa spies suggest that Armstrong is quite the seamstress or really talented at threading the proverbial passing needle if you will. (See below: Eye can attest to this on film). Armstrong (foreshadowing intended) is said to be a physical-runner, with just enough slip and hesitation (in particular) moves to keep you honest; and at least one observer harkened him back to uva’s J.Druckenmiller Lyte. Time=tell on all of that… although even if all of that is all that and a ‘snap’? I’d rather be playing Armstrong sooner rather than later if you will. Why let those ribs heal up any mo’? That said, Bren’ was an early gray-shirt enrollee, so, he’s been at uva for a spell and should have the playbook and all systemic things down A+++ pat. Armstrong was a legit **** (four-star) ESPN national recruit. He was the 20th ranked dual-threat Qb by 247. And he did rumble for 1,000-yards+ three straight times in high school terms. Where Armstrong put up good though not quite whooping gridiron scholastic digits. On tape… Bren’ packs average speed and quicks; tho’ not quite a pure burst or fast-twitch loaded Qb1. 6′2″, 215 lb., Jr. year Bren’ is a bouncy looking thrower upon breaking-tape, who will scramble the pocket and purchase extra time east-west to take one final northerly looksee downfield. Bren’ courts a good arm, he sees the field (backside too) well and he will take the fight to opposing Db’s on Read-Option keepers downfield. Bren’ runs well enough internally with just enough footwork for one move; he is a pretty dang accurate passer (impressed here). And he is confident enough. 2021 Bren’ is really a 2022 ask back… tho’ you could do much worse in response to the departed Perkins at Qb1. (And I’d wager the over on Bronco liking ‘his boy’ here). Thingy being… he looked real cross-body slinging to me in the Pitt game. Like he cannot (yet) bear to put his full weight behind his throws (riblets). Lack of weight transfer itself (i.e., not fully forward, in particular under pressure; when he turtled and was in a bit of survival or sparerib self-protect). That squarely struck, he did seem looser later on @Pitt. Like a crotchety hinge on some ole saloon door. Maybe that’s better this week and maybe it is not? Tho’ it is a very strange release/follow-threw if you will. One on which you can almost feel the: “wince”. God Bless. Still yet, since we saw him last, Bren’ is up 5% overall and a whopping 19-points in annual Qb-rating as well! That’s not just efficiency, that’s play-making downfield. He is also up in YPC and in passing ratio, now surpassing 3:1 itself. With four, that’s (4) HR or long-runs to kick rocks all the mo’ on top of aerial that. In the airwaves themselves… we see that Bren’ has recorded six, that’s (6) HR throws this season so far. This is in spite of suffering 3 different 5 or 6 sack games tallied against! And although passing at nearly 2 outta 3 in those sacked contests, he did chuck nearly 50% of his throws under heavy pressure. So, that’s the one passing-fancy or lifeline here. VeeTee must plum get after him and turn him over even as he calculates the total yardage in his favor. As Splits went… only chucks 22% of his picks @Home. Tho’ does drop by 5% from 1st to 2nd-half and by 15-points of Qb rating as well! Which speaks to overuse to me. Or, a smidgeon of panic, as oddly enuff, that INT% finds the other 78% of Bren’s picks in defenders’ hands post-intermission! (Wild, ain’t it?!?)
  • Rb(n)one: this really truly is Rb via committee— excepting that 4 of the 5 board members get bored with pocket work and take off as Qb’s! The kinda quickish and kinda not much else Wayne Taulapapa and his 1.4K career rushing yards are back again… and he has one really good/clean game and then goes to sleep again and again and again. That squarely struck, to get minimal aerial assault ground-gaining touches? 3 of the Top-5 do average 6.6 ypc or north of that. So, they run just enough to (try) to keep you throw-fit honest. And honestly, every fourth or fifth game they run decently enough. (As: Rb3: Ronnie Walker Jr., an Indiana transfer has not really done what they hoped/expected here; ditto Rb2 Mike Hollins… both of which were hoped to really push w.Tau’ outta the Rb1 way). That and po’ Tua’… he of the twice St.Catherine bless double concussed protocol for 2o21. (Might be time to poltergeist and “get out” here bro’). Dang… tough way to go to school, ain’t it?
…hoo base O: (near double Hb look):
  • Wr’s/Te: (returning) experience is a bit thinner here, as two highly developed grab-gang guys went bananas and split after last season. ex-Wr1 Terrell Jana caught 36 passes for 423 yards last year, and tight end Tony Poljan, a Central Michigan transfer, led the team with six touchdown catches. They are gonzo and yet the catch-corps has (still) put up very competitive digits here. Newly minted Wr1: Dontayvion Wicks is all-A.c.c. Wr1 in theory. As his vitals of: 54 snags epic for 1,148-yards on a 21.3 ypc average with a long of 77-yards and a shiny looking 54-points tallied is pretty dang theoretical indeed. In spades even. Behind him, home position Qb2 now Wr1a: Keytaon Thompson only pitches in with a team pacing 74-receptions for 3′ short of 800-yards; (he will Wr throw too). Then there is Slot-Wr2/Returner/and rusher: Billy Kemp IV, who only enjoys: 66-snags for 623-yards and 36-points in his own right. Behind them are two Wr3 & Wr4 doods with 32 and 37 snags and ≥535-yards. Behind them are four doods trying to sneak up on a centennial 100-yards receiving and another of them is a home position Qb4 too boot; (he will chuck it too). As this is as deep of a catching corps as you will collegiately see in a handful (pun intended) of years, plural. (Not ½-bad when your springtime Wr1 blows his A.c.l., right? St.Nikon bless: l.Davis Jr.). Te1: The addition of near Ot3 and big-blocking Oklahoma State transfer tight end Jelani Woods adds an intriguing -and sizable- weapon to the offense. Woods is 6′7″ and 279 lbs., with 14.4 ypc and 42-points his ownself. wowzo! Grab-Gang is good-sized less Kemp in the Slot.
  • oLine: 80% returned upfront and that very same 4 in 5 coulda kicked Lawn rocks and gone exit stage (far)-Left. There is something to be said fo’ wanting to continue to serve in a terminal contact sport and re-up for another campaign men. In particular as trench-fighting itself foes, or goes if you will. as hooVa has about as much right-tail experience curve blocking effects as you can court down-low up-front on O. Technically, all five starters are expected to return in a good-sized group around Chris Glaser, a 6′4″, 3o5 lb. plugger of a G1 who got an honorable mention All-A.c.c. nod. This is a very veteran front-blocking-5 for uVa men. Don’t expect many -if any- plain blown assignments or misQ’s here. You need to go’on and whoop this front wall if/when you can. G-c-G or the internal blocking wedge is the tip of the spear here and the Ot’s are fine enough outside-in. Offensive-line is on point size-wise. Not tooooo hard, not tooooo soft. In spite of flagging and snapping foibles, C1 and left-Ot (NOT the blindside here) are your 2-bell-cows pure block-wise upfront. Although, this oLine does NOT seem to enjoy catching punches, seems to enjoy technique and angling or Euclidean football much mo’. (Maybe they can be ruffed up?)
comparatively this week…
  • uVa O ∑ (summary): returning O production=72% (63rd most). Hyper experience hooVa O here folks. Like outlying right-tail in Experience Curve terms. They should be fully James Joyce Ulysses playbook literate for it too. Limited misQ’s and misreads and missed assignments live here. You have to erect your own scaffolding; whetstone and hoist your own blade and then go’on and Doc’ Guillotine leverage this much execution.

    Not That There Is Anything Right With This!
  • (Film-Study): nothing too surprising here. Standard modern era basketball on grass Spread-Gun with Hb offset beside Qb1. 3 or 4-wide looks and that big ole Te1 as well. Did find it most telling that Pitt thought they could and surely tried to rough uVa up in places. The Hokiebird might wanna parrot that a bit. Observe the near double-Hb look up above and the greater oLine offset/stagger. (Not enuff men on anything there…) Lot of intermediary works here, a really elastic medium-set. Makes you cover the whole 53.⅓ yards east-west. Will leak Tau out off play-action late, and Wicks or hoomever will rocket one northward here-n-there. Tho’ these fundaments put the onus on your 2nd-layer (or a Nickel/Dime) laterally. cavs will work towards the sidelines to stretch that, and then have someone go medium up a 2 or 3-seam look. Lotta hits are on the move, not many waiting/sit-down routes here. That said, this VHT (very highly touted) Qb1 picks very very well on seaming. A zippy haberdasher of a passer if you will. High football I.Q./experience download here. Should open his own men’s clothing store for it… as Armstrong has a good enuff arm, not bionic, tho’ he hits opposing D’s at just the perfect 2nd-layer+++ (just clearing Lb coverages) time, again and again, and again. This O is made fo’ him like Showtime fast-breaking orchestration was made for Magic. Very deft touch passer as well—throws that old-school -esque Montana very catchable ball. Then, hooVa grab-gangstars are big/physical enuff to bull for a few bonus Y.A.C. This is a tough match-up fo’ leftover or tinfoil O&M eggs and j.Ham gents. Make no misQ there. The only nitpick on this much Singer sewing machine seaming is… this is a low-ball, might be a deflection here if hands-up. Both the passing cup and the few run-shapes are pretty shipshape here. Tough to pick an alpha either way… and Armstrong getting the ball away on: “One-Mississippi” does not hurt any of that one-iota (1ι) either. This is a good quick-hitting pick-n-pop O. And the catch cadre is uVa’s best overall in several seasons running. Run-O will Gap-over and flood play side and pull the Te back in behind things to try to create a frontside numbers overload. Tua might be better than he shows… as they show so little of him with Armstrong actually being the Alpha rusher more than anything or any Rb else. Not a bruising oLine, technique, savvy, sharp oLine tho’.
  • Again, this is a very very good -if not great Qb1- in a utopian fit of a throw-set and it shows. This O was made for Armstrong and Armstrong gives this O a very stately medium stretch.
  • 50% run:pass 50% mix; (surprisingly is it not?) Rb2: Devin Darrington and his shocking 8 ypc is your secret sauce offender here. Last year the hooVa O was a bit inconsistent and less explosive than that. Tho’ they did finish stronger as 2o2o things began to take 2o21 shape. O has put up ≥5oo-yards or pentacentennial days 81% of the time this season thus far. Very diverse O in throw-shape terms, and they hit you with every variety of Wr in the book. A dicey book to match-up with for it too.

Beta-Mining 1o1:
uVa scores very highly here… 6th to 28th best straight across less their zeta-use of run-shapes themselves. The Explosion metric of 16th best really bent my Eye, however. That’s mo’ pop in their cans than I had thought.

And, if they pop big, deep?
Game; over.

Offensive letter-grade:

frenchy Special Teams: (zero returned)

Placekicker Brian Delaney and P1 Nash Griffin are both gone from last year’s team— gone as well is a metric ton of experience and booties here. Additionally, they only have 1-schollie leg-worker (K4) and they had only one listed P coming into the year in Roster terms.

uVa is 61st in Net Punting and incoincidentally enough, so is P1 Jacob Finn. Jacob is a 6′5″, 2o4 lb., ex-Florida Gator P1 who has grad-transferred-in. PROPS on for it to boot. Tho’ do aim block-point high as this guy is a hoops S/G sized P1. Last year Jacob was only the 3rd-ranked Net Punter Nationally down in Gainsville, Fla. So, 61st is a bit of an (unexpected) dip in leg-work here. Walk-on, r-shirt Gator, who was also S.e.c. Academic Honor Roll a couple of times. Mo’ .edu love insert (_____), here, check. Courts a career-long @anywhere of 67-yards; so leg-talent is okay tho’ a brick or so shy of a load. More of a directional/hang-time nil-return coverage punter than a Ray Guy boomer. Only has a uVa long of 57-yards to show for it. Serviceable, experienced, trustworthy P1, if not an epic P1 itself. (With no fakes at any level, or blocks to boot).

  • 1o1st in Punt Returns | 121st in KO returns. (Pretty inert here).
  • 96th in punt coverage | and 100th best in suicide-squad! (Should be something here).
  • uVa has blocked 2 kicks and allowed o kicks to be blocked!
  • uVa has blocked 0 punts and allowed 0 punts to be blocked.

Pseudo replacement K1: Justin Duenkel kinda/sorta was your pseudo replacement K1, until he late September was not. Now P2 gone K1a: Brendan Farrell is your new K1. 10 of 12 since K1 taking is nearly great for: 83.3% overall. As B.F. has nearly automatic range out to mid-to-high-30-yards thus far this year. He also enjoys 2o21 A.c.c. Academic Honor Roll membership; so props awarded here. He is also nearly a scratch golfer, (2-handicap) as he lettered three years on the golf team and was team captain as a senior. He was also a member of the Latin Honor Society and made the honor roll all four years of high school down in Marietta Georgia. In Georgian terms, Mister Farrell has a career-long make of 49-yards at any level. He is a 5′11″, 2o5 lb., r-Soph’ Kicker. The kicker, so to speak is he has only tallied one make ≥34-yards so 2o21 far! With no fakes (run or pass) at any level. So, go ahead and expect a short-punt in lieu of a long-FGA here. As leg-strength does not quite strike me or the pigskin as being Lee Majors bionic in general terms so far.

ex-K1: Justin Duenkel… could be back here, as he has been dented fo’ about 3-fortnights give/take. He is of nearly the same distancing range (high: 30’s); and a 2 of 3 career marker on FGA’s overall percentage wise to boot.

hooVa is perfect all year long on P.A.T.’s (47 of 47 is pretty impressive as most do not have that many passes from C to Holder in a year).

uVa Special Teams letter-grade: D+++/C— fence here gents. Too many coverage/returns ills, some lack of experience, and a couple of legs that have come up shorter than expected.

Unit Rankings:

  1. uVa O!
  2. …gap…
  3. VT D/VT O.
  4. …smaller gap…
  5. uVa D.


  • motive: VeeTee with a double-lame-duck Pro’ Temp’ interim coach vs. Rog.Daltary and you know hoo have to want get back in this one. EDGE=uVa.
  • weather: not too end of November shabby… won’t help VeeTee and won’t hurt the boo-hoo throw fits much at all. EDGE=uVa.
  • health/off-field: …this one numerically is about even. Both teams have some dings/dents and wear-n-tear. Granted. However, VeeTee’s are in the defensive ass-end and at Qb. That’s two k.Kong sized or seized check-marks in favor of the banana brains. EDGE=uVa. (XL one too).
  • penalties: hooVa is low to mid-70’s or C— here. Not awful, not undisciplined itself. Tho’ the EDGE=VT nevertheless.
  • intangibles: 35th in TOP (time of possession) is defensively restful enuff. 87th in all-important Turnover Margin does create some takeaway stress. EDGE=push.
  • fatigue: …incredibly enuff… hooVa enters this 12th game one on two weeks’ worth of work. Whereas VeeTee enters it on a whopping 8th straight work-week with zero rest. EDGE=uVa (huuuuuge too).


R.A.T.T.: ...what chance does 8-point underdog VT have @uVa, here???

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Illationconclusion(s) and OPT digits:

Number of hoos who could hoot @Tech=

the takeaway:

…the takeaway here is… bustin’-bronco is pretty much the anti-Fu’… and @hooVa of all the non-Utah, non-r-G.O.P. places on the planet?

As in… the story going into this season is all the could-have-been seniors who opted to come back from last year’s cav-team. It’s a group that includes four starting offensive linemen, three starting defensive backs,  virginia returns at least one player who started multiple games last season at every position on offense and eight of 11 spots on defense.

NTTAWWT… in point of fact… and in all candor to bronco… you GOTTA be doing a little sompthin-sompthin right (so to speak) over in TeeJay’ville to a.c.c.omplish dat.

That’s not via accident men.

That is born of… design.


xxx‘s & ooo‘s

The frenchies have surrendered 182-points in their past four games since pitching a 48-o shutout against lowly Duke back on Oct. 16.

Not named @BeeCee the ex-post-Pattern-facto Fu’fense has been averaging mid 30’s ppg on O of late. With a 50% chance not named @BeeCee that O&M eggs and j.Ham Heimlich Maneuver 40 ppg or more allowed themselves. With hooVa allowing an astounding 47 ppg in their last 3!

Shootout at the O.K. Corral anyone?

formulae here favors:

virginia’s Wr1, Dontayvion Wicks… hoo only needs 43 receiving yards to break Herman Moore’s single-season school record of 1,19o yards, set in 199o.

Oui-oui …that counts.

Might count mo’ if our secondary is tertiary on health to boot.


  1. Δ1=67% (or mo’), that we could be in real live trouble here.
  2. Δ2=33% (or less), that we make a good game of it vs. our archrival. Maybe we even get catch some airwaves help from you know hoo?

#ChallangeA.c.c.epted… there are 1,440 minutes in a day and it will take the full 60 all-in, all-out to pinch this one out on the road here.

the optics...

Remember the dry, drier, driest, Miss Othmar or Charlie Brown classroom LOL’s? That’s this one here, sans some (early) uVa secret-Santa love. That Holiday special attempt at satire…

virginia has L the turnover battle five times last year. It L all five games. It won the turnover battle five times. It won all five games. The program has L its last nine games when it L the turnover margin –going back to a few wins early in 2o19– and it won its last 18 games going back to an L to Indiana in early 2o17 when it was on the right side of the turnover metric.

Same diff’ this year, 4:8 in INT margin the ‘rong way for hooVa in all their L’s. Plus 2 in fumble margin in the same. This has narrowed or gotten better recently a mite… just not mightily enough.

i.e., does uva have one mo’ Butterfingers or b.Simpson kinda day left in it?

the skinny...

…not much… as this is one of the few pre-game ones in a while that a final tally widening against our favor is very much in R.A.T.T. play before this Commonwealth backyard rivalry scrum kicks-off.

Eye say/warn again… those round things rolling down the road
could be the Hokiemobile wheels here…

Lo.FM (Long-field Management©)

  • only 4 are better than 5th best on 1st-down uVa | whereas O&M eggs and j.Ham is a middleocore 59th in 1st-down D.
  • uVa is also a pretty dang sporty 19th best in 3rd-down O | whereas VeeTee is neutralizing 23rd best in 3rd-down D!
  • the ex-Fu’fense is a lowly 97th best in 1st-down O | whereas france is even lowlier at 118th best in 1st-down le` D!
  • the ex-Fu’fense is a centrist 63rd best in 3rd-down O | whereas france is a pretty impoverished 87th best in 3rd-down D.
  • Lo.FM Analysis: well, we/VT is better on D and they/uVa are better on O. So, that’s a strength-on-strength crime and old-school thinking says that it is a lesser part that must rise up and settle the dispute. As someone has gotta win this 1st-down one and that one is your winner here. EDGE=???

TTT (Time To Throw©)

  • the cavs are a turnstile like 92nd best in TFL (tackles for a loss) allowed O | while the Hokies are a below-average 82nd best in TFL inflicted D.
  • the hoos are a sieve-like 121st best in Sacks allowed O | while the Gobblers are a moderate 69th best in Qbs sacked D.
  • the Hokies are a middleocore 69th best in TFL allowed O | while the cavs are only 112th best in TFL inflicted D.
  • the Gobblers are a middle of the aisle 64th best in Sacks allowed O | while the hoos are a meager 114th best in Qbs sacked D.
  • TTT Analysis: well, although there may not be a pure alpha here— or even a beta, there sure as bleep is a zeta. And that’s The Lawn which really does need to get mowed then plowed alike for VeeTee to win this one here. EDGE=Vah.Tech. (and we need to win
    this one BIG-big there).

…bronco will never bust his post-game twice brawling buddy nows… as Fu’ holds the final (VicTorious) 2o2o word head-to-head here.

3-game splits:
…here we see that the ex-Fu’sene is still about +30 ypg better of late. With rushing being improved and throwing being worse. On the other side we see that the not real great uVa D has gone flaccid at a bonus near +90 more ypg allowed of late. More of this was down in the dirt although the airwaves were pretty static-free to boot. Across the line, we see that the cavs O has missed their Qb1 mo’ than a little bit. As they have experienced an offensive contraction of right at 60 ypg. About 2/3rds  of them were aerial. On the Hokie halt-unit side we see that the only modest change was about a 1st-down-n-change worse in defense of the throw.
EDGE=should say VT. Tho’ how much is ’cause of the uva Qb?

H/A splits:
…here we see that the ex-Fu’fense drops by about ½ a 1st-down out on the altogether nominal looking road. hooever, the uVa D stiffens @home by nearly 80 ypg less allowed in their own backyard! wow! On the other side we see that the hooVa O gains about +30 extra yards on the ground. Whereas O&M eggs and j.Ham move via a whopping 3′ or 36″ or one-yard as rather consistent Road Warriors go. EDGE=uva. As the halt-unit movement was unexpected raised to the shock-power here.

Our handy dandy friend, the so-called: Forum Guide of Graham Houston fame is merely calling fo’ a near two-full-score VomiT or a 16-point boo-hoo Tech Triumph.

the call

Both programs are trending downward as they meet for the 1o3rd time, with the visiting Hokies (5-6, 3-4 Atlantic Coast Conference) holding a 59-38-5 lead over the Cavaliers (6-5, 4-3) in a series that began in 1895.

uVa Projected S&P+: 59th.
uVa Projected S&P wins: 6.7 W’s.

the sportlight...

…here in the sportlight… we say: “that’s nice…
Nevertheless… if we/VeeTee are not entirely careful?

Black, white, grey… all shades of the O&M truth serum that hooVa is about to drop the plunger on and syringe our off-season a.c.c.ordingy.

…(in the worst-case), all fingers point to that.


3:38 PM jump!

We had planned on telling you… that after last year’s post-game and after such much mud in the Eye between these pier-6 brawling two… the zebras had better keep 15-15 caliber Chuck Yeager Eyes quite plural peeled and on these two here.

And frankly -although Eye prefers: “let ’em play”- this might be a good one to gain whistling control of early, often, middle and maintain the same… late.

As you’d have to think this is a highly frustrated nobody wants me VeeTee fu’tball club right about now.


So, going back several fortnights spent… the little (hokie)-birds of mine had been coaching sewing-circle saying… that bronco had said he was right where he wanted to be to “get Tech”; as in get in Tech azz long-n-hard this time out.

This was pre-uVa’s Qb1 reshuffling upper-body or rib injury; and this was prior to the big whistle getting O&M blew-in-the-face New River Valley skiing season come early blown out.


As be yeh FOX vs. C.n.n., or Bert and Ernie vs. cats, or Ric Flair vs. Ricky Morton, or Greasers vs. Soc’s…

…a blind man could see it with a cane here… as bronco and Fu’ had a history.

A trullllllly fu’gly, seriously epic brawling, fightin’, hissin’, pissin’ history at that.

Seriously, the blood has run several times red-hot here.
As these two were not exactly in love with each other.
NOT at all to be sure.

••• ——— •••

Now hooever?
All those gears are stripped to the point of gone.

As in… only one team is equipped to wing their way to VicTory here. The other team must, that’s unconditionally MUST stay close and not chase by mo’ than 1 to 1.5 scores up on the C’ville, Va. scoreboard.

Start=finish here... as ONLY a good start gives Vah.Tech a chance at a finish.
A porous start hooever and this one could be over early, and even fu’gly at that.
And this could indeed lead to an off-season cratering in the 24o6o
We’re… humped.


upset Index=22%


Virginia Tech=16, france=39


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9 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. We will score more than 16. I can’t guarantee any winning going on here, and I didn’t realize that this is 8 straight weeks of games (another example of good old Whit B dropping the ball…just brutal). I would say 41-27 Hoo’ville. But I could also see this 34-31 VT

    1. 8 is cruel.
      Brutal even.

      (tho’ mo’ A.c.c. than Whit in fairness to Babs…)


  2. Price opens up full can of whoop Ass; big brawl breaks out thanks to Dax antics, resulting in multiple ejections as Hoo pack mentality falls prey to Hokie trap. Meanwhile mentally frazzled UVA folds under VT running attack.

    Price gets the W, Bronco refuses to shake hands, adding further folklore kindling to the rivalry.

    Let’s Go… Hokies!!!
    Beat U-V-A!!!

  3. Tech needs to jam the f out of their receivers at the line, and shut down some of the quick hitting passes. We must pray for divine intervention that we can get a pass rush and put vanilla Vick on the turf. Hamilton must get his head out of his ass and call the right defenses, we were outsmarted last week.
    Offense must run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, pick your time for a seam pass to a streaking receiver.

    1. Which Qb tho’???

      aTm is not so much for this as BAX (if he lasts the day that is…)

      God Bless,

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