Virginia Tech at North Carolina football preview!

 #44  R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #69 R.P.I. North Carolina:

Our beloved Hokies travel down through Tobacco Road to visit formerly 21st ranked North Carolina this Saturday afternoon with both teams o-1 in the A.c.c. and both teams hungry for a Coastal Division enabling win. As o-2 after, well two, A.c.c. football games is a 100% deep hole. As I said in the Western Michigan Eye in the Sky, the Coastal side  is wide freakin’ open this year, so although that may not be a Coastal kill-shot per se, it is a double tie-breaking wound and a rather leaky looking divisional wound at that.

In a football game that most of the pigskin prognosticitini seem to deem that Virginia Tech really should win. Accordingly…

Today’s word of the day is…should

should (shd)

UNC Defense: (starters back=6) 4-2-Nickle hybrid set

• D has a 30 and 20 looks to it at times, will cheat 2 guys forward for a 5-man font, even saw some 3-cheats six-man fronts as well —will blitz anyone off this look from anywhere.
• expect a little more traditional forty-three look in the Redzone
• very high | risk high reward scheme
• Lb’s do more man-coverage than I’ve seen in a bit, they even go and double the nearest man in point of fact
• Lb’s will overshadow the short-side of the field, love to hear the thinking is here?
• D does appear to have a little more Talent right in the middle of the D, although when ranked nearly dead-last in defense, that is a HIGHLY relative statement indeed
• little bit more aggressive or pressing man on the edges here, lotta Shell-2 behind all of that. Did see a little Tampa-1.
• Will blitz Cb or Cb off this tight-man set, to wit, there are big plays to be made behind this blitz before the Fs/S can rotate over
• This was odd to me, as this secondary has average recovery-speed, and no better —ditto, this ain’t exactly the best tacking hind-4 I’ve seen on tape
• secondary forfeits outside leverage, at times
• 608.7! (that’s how much Total Yardage UNC is giving away on average in their last 3 games, and there are only ~80 shopping days remaining until Christmas!)

Carolina Offense: (returning starters=7) Gun 3-wide

• Marquise Williams? Marquise Williams? Marquise Williams?
• I could stop this section right here.
• Because if we stop #12, methinks our UNC odds are pretty damn good.
• However, Bud Ultra is a 1-gap system via trade, and accounting for a dual threat Qb does not come easy, via design
• Williams has been hot of late, 2 of his last 3 games have logged a Qb ratting in excess of 165 points! (READERs note: whereas my boy Brewer has been stuck between 98 and 120 points, see what I mean?)
• M.Williams reminds me of our very own LT3, as Middle-Pressure seems to bother his decision making process the most.
• UNC has no rushes north of 20 yards on the year and yet three passes in excess of 67 yards on the year!
• Will motion BEHIND the Qb (not in front)
• will use trickeration as well! (on O and on ST’s)
• lotta off-set Hb gun looks, with 3 or 4 wide nearly full-time, will Trips wide-side
• one of the BETTER sets of pass-catching hands I’ve seen on film in a while, the UNC Wideout’s make Williams look good.
• Will use crosses, hip-rubs and picks right off the LOS (line-of-scrimmage)
• No UNC Rb ranked better than 9th in passes caught, they are not much of a aerial threat
• Left-side oLine >>> right-side oLine
• Excellent Wr screen blocking oLine, a nimble group to say the least | SWITZER is death here!!!
• Skill position guys are highly experienced, although Wr is noticeably >>> Rb

T.Heels Special Teams: (both were back)
Fairfax Station Virginia native Soph. K Nick Weiler is 22 of 22 as UNC kicks go since taking over for former starting K Thomas Moore after the  “San Diego” game; as Ron Burgundy would have said it,  a couple of weeks ago. And that’s nice enough, although only 3 of those kicks were FGA (and he made all 3). Nick has kicked off for UNC each year at Chapel Hill so leg-strength is a non-issue here. And Nick was a Wr in high-school, so trickeration is in play as we enter the always tricky month of October itself. Now, all that being said, Nick is indeed likes to fight guy or likes to be arrested for the same. Well, if nothing else, Nick is a departure from the typical fondu guzzling sissy Kicker mode. Albeit an unknown one at the collegiate level with a career long of 23.

UNC is 89th in Punt Returns, 52nd in Net Punting and a corresponding 54th in punt coverage defense. That said, the one man caveat otherwise known as PR #3 Ryan “the blur” Switzer can and has taken any give punt to the house with 36 punt return points scored on his scintillating returning career. Tommy Hibbard returns as Punter –and as Holder, where he has thrown a couple of fakes already. Tommy was once a star pitcher and Qb in high school; so P&J needs to mind its P&Q’s here. Tom is a 3-year incumbent starting Punter and several pre-season mags had him tabbed as competing for all-A.c.c.  “Hibbs” -as he is know- is said to have a mid-60’s leg and his career long of 76 would seem to agree.

The T.heels are 25th in KO coverage defense and a sporting 31st in KO returns; so the UNC kick game is pretty dang solid; and not overly far removed from weapon status.

Special Teams letter-grade: (better than I expected, at least on film, as there is experience here and there is nothing statistically beyond punt returns that could be spoken to as being below average …hence, a very solid B+++)

X-factor(s):
Sky-blue talent … powder-blue Chemistry!
I scanned my normative number of pre-season magazines looking for UNC kids listed as 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, string all-A.c.c. pre-season nominees. Guess how many I found? Sometimes 2, sometimes 3; and no more. As Butchie did not exactly leave UNC as well stocked as some would have you believe; as talent has waned a bit down on Chapel Hill due to off-field attrition and Professional matriculation alike. In VERY particular, up-front along the dLine and on the Oline in that order of consequence.

Also, Dr. Jerry Glanville of the VT Chem’ department please report to the power-puff dance floor. As there are vapid reports of some lockeroom tensions down in C.Hill where coach Fedora may or may not be the best fit for this individualized or self-oriented football club.  There may not be an I in the proverbial team  folks, however, if you look closer at UNC, you will see the ‘m” and the “e”.

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:

This one is gonna be a barn-burner just like every single closing game not named Wake is want to be a barn-burner. As there is something here that hunches me to say that U.n.c. is luck to score a knockdown or two as this 2014 Virginia Tech football team has already demonstrated a propensity for leaving its chin open and getting touched up a bit; even when in the lead. Ditto all the secondary dings and dents that Coach Gray’s boys are traveling with and the thinning spot otherwise known as Dt, as our BYE or OPEN week can not get here soon enough.

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Now that caveat or warning fully published, Brewer could have a big day here, maybe even a very big day, as Virginia Tech is gonna get some points vs. these T.holes. The only real calculus is just how much. As in how much will U.n.c. finally tally and can they keep up sans any O&M bonehead INT or yellow-flagging help.

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“I think any time you play on your side, or even in the conference, particularly on your side where we have a loss already, it makes it even more important.” –Frank Beamer-

And this just in, rain is rumored to be, wet! Although maybe you can say that when you are 80% vs. UNC in A.c.c. play all-time.

In the meantime, we now know that my eMail to C2 had more than its normal biweekly content validity to kickoff October. As someone picked up that Virginia Tech is just trying to win this and and just get (some might say just “limp”) to the MUCH needed OPEN or BYE week(end) in between the 11 day turnaround prior to @Pitt. As our Hokie football club needs this down weekend just like a “…dead man needs a coffin.” As we are quite literately beat all to hell at Dt, Qb, Cb, Fs, oLine, Tb and team-wide dings and dents abound all around after 9 straight weeks of contact one way or the other.

In point of fact, methinks that at this very moment, head coach Frank Beamer would take a  ¹/₁₀^thof a point victory on the corrupt Eastern Bloc judge’s scorecard and just call the whole shebang, of f. In lieu of that alternative, we do have a gridiron game to play @North Carolina in less than 24 hours. Against a team with an average final margin of -3 ppg (41-44) on the year. Whereas Virginia Tech enters Saturday’s contest on the, well, heels, of a 26.7-24 point average outcome margin in their 3 games since the magnificent upset win @Ohio State.

Or in other words, this one is fated to be hotly contested affair. All you need to adjudicate is where will the final margin fall? In the 20’s, in the 30’s or in the 40’s?

The milieu of this one is that it is high time for this 2014 Virginia Tech offense to come together and make common cause. Someone has heard that Shai McKenzie was one of the most popular teammates in years, plural. If that subjectivity is to be fashioned into an objective Tobacco Road reality, and if all the whispers and vibes that Frank and company really do not like North Carolina -not one iota- are taken to be true –then one must deduce that it is the O&M that holds a significant applied sports-psych advantage over the sky-blue in this one.

I and my committee of one hereby ratify that: try as you might, you still can not spell VicTory without VeeTee. As UNC has not surrendered less than 27 points on the year, and our beloved Hokies have not scored north of 35 points this season; so there you have the basis for a banded prediction in a football game that Virginia Tech really should, win.

Should…

Virginia Tech=35, North Carolina=27

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**