#78 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #59 R.P.I. Georgia Tech:
Today’s word of the day is… perishable
(ˈpɛr ɪ ʃə bəl)
- subject to decay, ruin, or destruction.
- something perishable, esp. food.
- only 180 gar-ron-teed minutes of FB’s hall of fame fb career remain!
♫“On and on and on and, you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.”♪
–Joni Mitchell, Big Yellow Tax-
Now, we, know…
and it is, almost, gone…
Georgia Tech Defense: (starters back=8)
- 43rd in Total D, 75th vs. the Rush and 29th vs. the Throw.
- 1o9th in Sacks and 117th in TFL! (i.e. low, very low)
- 76th in DLine Havoc Rate, 111th in Lb Havoc Rate, 96th in Secondary Havoc Rate.
- i.e. a read-n-react defensive set(s), tries to keep everything in front of it and disallow chunk yardage.
- 3-4 lynchpin Ng nuked out his knee last game. (God Bless!) Adam Gotsis was prolly the best interior d-Lineman in the A.c.c. BIG BIG L here for the Wreck’s front-3.
- Thirty-Four base set, will cheat the Will up for a even look. Lb’s are linear and just a scosche deeper than expected. (i.e. harder to reach-block) Did see a couple of old-school arrowhead looks with 1 ILb hinting forward.
- 4 secondary guys and 3 second-layer guys (Lb’s) all listed as questionable.
- i.e.2. this is a very dinged up GT stop-unit folks.
- 3 defensive scores notched already.
- Secondary: Jamal Golden is the truth at Ss, rest of the hind-4 is not as good.
Same thing on the D-line, one stud at De (#43 K.Freeman), rest not as good, and in the second-layer, 1 stud at Lb (#40 P.J. Davis) and the rest not as good. Freeman in particular is a Foster De who just never knew it. Secondary has some pretty congested/clogged Middle-Zone looks. Seems to wanna force sideline throws. GT defenders do go for the ball; and not the man.
- D will heavy run-blitz in short-yardage; i.e. if we can only break contain…
- Dline will twist and loop and even delay-blitz a Lb in passing sets. Dline is not the fastest or the most hustling East-West. Seen me some outright loafing on film.
- Tackling is below average. Army tacking (at times) in a word. Should be some Y.A.C. here (yards after contact). Geometry is somewhere between too shallow, too aggressive or again; loafed. Coach Euclidean would not be, proud.
- Fs seems a bit shallower than on the norm, might be a deep shot or three to take here; as he seems run-heavy to me on top of that. Cb’s are softer, medium looks, could be some short quick hitting stuff in front of them; Hitch routes et al.
- Somehow this D’s overall ranking (Ginko: 43rd) is none too shabby. Maybe that’s early season O.O.C. success skewed, as I just did not see it upon breaking tape. This D looks like it is trending downward of late, at least it does to me.
Offense: (returning starters=5)
- 8th in rushing offense (267 per game), 63rd in Passing Efficiency, 121st in Passing O.
- A four down O, will go for it places where nobody else would on 4th-n-short to 4th-n-medium. Or basically anywhere inside of your 25 or so; maybe even in positive field-position (you side of the field).
- 78th in TFL allowed and 20th best in Sacks allowed | mind you, BOTH skewed artificially by not passing and rushing all over the place. And yet 28th in Rushing Success Rate, which paints a clearer cutting/chopping good picture.
- 6th best in finishing drives.
- 5 rushing TD’s >48 yards and 3 rushing TD’s >60! (will hit big play running HR’s)
- Basically, 3 plays right or even and then then same 3 plays left or odd.
- can toggle the Belly Play hole or Gap from between G-c on the left or c-G on the right, or out into G-Ot or Ot-Te/Wingback hole. 3 Gap system for the base or initial Belly-Play with regard to the opening Qb-Fb mesh point.
- Then a Hb option play-side (2nd option of the triple point).
- Then the back-side Hb play-side or a Wingback on the reverse (3rd option of the triple point).
- “Flex” is code for the passing element off of the Belly-play-action.
NO pass completions >50 yards, only 2 guys in double-digit grabs! (and one of ’em just quit)
- The 5’10” 187 lb. and possibly wearing down Thomas is merely a 43% passer, 2:1 ratio ain’t bad as he does not turn the ball over a ton, no matter how inaccurate he may be as a pure thrower. Alabama 100m State Champ in high school at 10.73! So Thomas can flat out motor, and he has a history of streaky play. Can run hawt some games and put up some gems. Twice a high school hoops champ’ as well, pure all-’round athlete/baller. And GT’s top-6 pass catchers all average 15+ per grab! When they do connect, they connect medium to long. p.s. Qb Thomas does not throw well off his back-foot or even worse moving backwards, lower release point too, WILES: “hands up!” get a batted or deflected INT.
- Thomas also brings a nice hesitation or freeze-move on the non-Belly play Options. Very effective prestidigitation or slight-of-hand.
- Thomas does not have a gun shy arm, he can zip it, and he will try to Biblical go: Eye of Camel and thread needles. (a.k.a. will gun forced throws into coverage)
- Really like the naked bootleg Belly look with the Thomas keeper countering weakside. P.J. always adding tricks. And here I thought halloween was about 12 days old?
- On the other hand, GT has 17 different guys with rushing carries this season!
- 20 Flex-bone fumbles with quality fumble containment for only 7 Turnovers.
- FILM-STUDY: saw a little more scissoring, jet-sweeping and pure toss-sweeps this year and maybe just a bit less pure Flex-bone works. Love to ask P.J., why?
- 3 all-conference nominees upfront 1 C, 1 G, 1 Ot. ALL 3 are left side! #58 Center Freddie Burden is no less than Top-2 in the whole darn A.c.c. Watch GT run odd or left in crunch time. (and I assure you, Freddie and Skov (the Fb) are both human-ballista’s, or Y-chromosome siege weapons on breaking tape, WoW!)
- Mind you, Skov is related! Remember his big-bro @Stanford? And he is a true Fb, not a recent bulked up Qb convert such as coach P.J. has been forced to deploy. (although Skov has been dragging a bum shoulder around for a fortnight; BYE week should help here)
Special Teams: (return)
6’4” 2o8 lb. good-looking Jr., K, Harrison Butker is a pretty decent Place-Kicker who does not get as much use as his talents would suggest in the 4th-down hungry Flex-Bone offense. And he does come with a leg, a BIG one, as he has only 1, that’s just o-n-e- FGA’s of less than 39 yards on the year! Technically he is listed as 70% thus far, his true kicking-percentage however is 87.5%, see below. And as said above, he has range -if needed- into the high 50’s, maybe even the low 60’s with the backing of some wind. In high school he garnered Prokicker.com Athlete of the Year and 1st-team All-America pick; plus 2 foutball or soccer state titles as well. Yah; I’d say Mister Butker can swing that leg.
Georgia Tech and Jr. P, Ryan Rodwell are impoverished at an average of 1o7th in Net Punting and a 77th in Punt coverage is not doing Rodwell any big favors, either. Same drill here as with Place-Kicking, as coach P.J. will go for it on 4th when others Punt, which lowers our Punt quotient for evaluation a bit. Though I did manage to dig up the fact that he has a career long of 45 in FG-Kicking and a career long of 58 in punting. Which does not suggest a bionic Lee Majors 6-million dollar leg to me. Took up football late in high school (junior year); which is prolly something of what’s going on here. And Tech looked vulnerable to Middle-Returns on film.
The Jackets are pretty good in Punt Returns themselves at 38th, not so good on KO Returns at 1o2nd. 9th best in the land in blocked kicks (3) and 7th best in blocked Punts with (2). Have had one punt of their own blocked. Have had 2 FGA’s blocked as well, (which means Butker has only really truly missed, only one). G.Tech has attempted 4, that’s f-o-u-r Onside KO’s this year, up-men beware! Did see the Y.Jackets give up 2 return scores (1 punt 1 KO) on tape.
Special Teams letter-grade: (above average, and anything can everything can happen here in special teams technological terms. I’ll go for the lowest possible B—, and it would be a lot more if not for those Blocks allowed and 2 TD’s taken back)
- motive: ALL Tech, OUR Tech!!!
- weather: looks very solid, small chance of afternoon showers, football weather post that.
- health: 1st time ALL year, we/VT are the healthier team! As GT is beat all to hell, Hawkeye, Trapper even Major Burns, please report to the dance floor. (Godspeed)
- penalties: #1 in fewest penalties for all of D-1 ball? Yah; that counts, maximum edge to GT.
- fatigue: GT plays its best ball (both O and D) in the 4th Q. That has to say something re: Jacket pulmonary-cardio conditioning. Advantage to their Tech.
Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:
The takeaway here is… approx. 2 in 5 odds according to my 36 hours of calc’ and stats, here’s how…
- Gah.Tech wins because: coach Wiles front-4 has some pretty dang solid experience in defense of the Flex-bone offense. However, how about the 3 or 4 rookies in the Secondary who have faced this wicked triple-option attack as many times as you and I have? How about our 2nd-layer? The Tuaman, R.V.D. and Clarke? How many of you say that match-up R.A.T.T. favors Vah.Tech? As it typically takes a time or two to get the gist of valve-control or how/where to funnel or outright spill plays in a 1-Gap non-individual-assignment system vs. an Option or full-time rushing Qb.
- Vah.Tech wins because: our handy-dandy friend the so-called Forum Guide of boxing legendary writer Graham Houston fame says so.That said, and for the first time in my lifetime, the Forum Guide did give Virginia Tech the nod, albeit by the first ever negative correlation. (or our Tech winning by -5 points in this one. As b-o-t-h teams got swept and went a unique o-for-2015 combined vs. common opponents head-to-head. The -5 is code for the Hokies managed to get beat by, less! Never ever have I see ^that^ one before.
- Gah.Tech wins because: although the Yellow Jacket total yardage metrics may not have translated into points, vs. common opponents head-to-head; the Wrambling Wreck does enjoy a noticeable yardage marker nevertheless. As G.Tech out-gained previous common opponents by +3o1 total yards combined. Or what should have been about 30 points give/take. Further, the most recent 3-game stats favor the other Tech, by 36 yards per contest and are therefore indicative of just about a 3 point Jacket win.
- Vah.Tech wins because: Frank is retiring and the whole entire football program should be higher than the International Space Station to send the most beloved coach in D-1 men’s football out as a finishing 4-o champ!
- Gah.Tech wins because: well because of starting C f.Burden and starting Fb little-Skov. How exactly is Bud Stout and the Tuaman gonna belly up to all of ^dat^? As this is a very physical and talented internal match-up in Tech’s favor. (the other Tech’s)
Right now my best call here is that Tech won’t stop Tech, in both directions. Technically speaking I foresee a medium sized shootout of sorts. Should be an entertaining scrum –the Bristol Connecticut suits should get their monies worth.
Than we come to this little nugget… Georgia Tech has out-gained 4 of its last 6 opponents and has exactly 1 victory to show for it. Virginia Tech on the other hand has out-gained 4 of its last 6 opponents, albeit by -33 total yards! Yes, negative. Or in other words we have two football teams on our hands that might be a little better than their records cumulatively posit, it is just that when they are bad, they are really bad. Or in other words … two very inconsistent or very tough teams to gauge.
As this one may dang well come down to he who scores last laughs last. And this one could be a potential candidate for extra-time. As this one is that dang close… index-mashed-to-thumb.
33-3o or 3o-33. Take thy pick…
Virginia Tech=33, Georgia Tech=3o