#259 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #21 R.P.I. Louisville:
Virginia Tech ventures into the well fabled horse-racing, bourbon and bluegrass State of Kentucky to take on 6th ranked in the nation, and former Metro Conference foil, the Louisville Cardinals now of A.c.c. fame …this Tuesday night.
Louisville currently stands in a 14 up and 2 down and is coming off of a stinging 71-72 L #18 U.n.c. this weekend.
Our beloved Hokies are a 23 point underdog and enter this one on 6 days rest at one game below .5oo at 7-8 overall.
I’m not into tar, nicotine, filters or anything else; so I won’t be the one to blow any smoke up your O&M skirts regarding our chances in this one men. As our chances just are not all that great; and yet, at least to me, Louisville may be just about 1/2 a notch overrated on paper, as I saw a whole lotta very good talent here, and not as much single shot star power talent. Although I saw a whole bunch defense and rebounding as well. As this could be the best defending/rebounding combo we face all year.
Louisville at a glance:
- 4th in steals (10.6 spg)
- 8th in Turnover Margin (+4.9)
- 10th in offensive rebounding
- 12th in FG% defense allowed (36.4%)
- 15th in scoring defense allowed (56.5 ppg)
- 3o5th in 3-point percentage (29.7%)
- 1 injury
Cardinals Backcourt: (returning starters=3 of 3)
Wayne Blackshear: 6’5” 225 lb. senior baller and quasi de facto team leader on seniority alone. More of a S/F 2-guard hybrid baller, who gets you a very solid box-score stuffing 12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, with 2 assists and steals alike. Not a pure shooter at a relatively mere 38% overall. Did earn the prestigious 2013 NCAA Elite 8 Award, presented to the student-athlete with the highest cumulative grade-point average participating at the finals site for each of the NCAA’s championships. Blackshear has a cumulative 3.55 GPA in communication’s, so that does not suck. Does have a streaky element to his game beyond 20’9” or from 3-point range. As his resume lists several red-hot shooting games from distance throughout his Cardinal career. 30% from distance thus far in 2014-2015. 3rd ranked SG outta high school by Rivals.
Terry Rozier: 6’1” 190 lb. sophomoric Pt.G who is at least included in the best in the A.c.c. conversation.
Has more than doubled his scoring from last year and now antes up a team leading 17.5 ppg. To go with a smart looking 5.6 rpg from the Off-G spot and a team leading 2.5 spg. That is prolly Professional level work at some level or another folks. Rozier is known to be a pure eruption type scorer, who once tallied 69 points in a high school game. Ranked high ~-by the recruiting cognoscenti, though not entirely super high coming outta high school; seems to remember that and enjoys proving that ‘rong. Pretty fascinating bio’, that among other things, lists that Rozier is: scared of squirrels and can’t sleep without a fan; enjoys dancing and shopping in his spare-time and that he wears the numeral “0” (see: pic), because the past means nothing. Diffidently the kinda cat that is cut of a differential timber. Does get to the rim and leads L’vile in FTA’s at 87 on a useful 75% from the charity-stripe. A 46% shooter overall with 3o.4% from the perimeter. Almost more of a lead-G than he is a Point.
Chris Jones: 5’9” 175 lb. Memphis escapee in his final year. Third in points at 13.2 ppg and first in assists at 3.4 dimes per contest. 2.3 steals on a second best 33% from 3-point land; only 35% from the floor however. Lead the A.A.C. in steals last year (with 73) prior to Louisville’s Atlantic Coast induction. Pesky on the ball defender as a high pressure in your shirt kinda guy. Excellent handles; as he had gone 3+ games with zero turnovers, twice! Penetrating Point who will dish or finish at the rack. Junior College player of the year in 2012 at North West Florida State College! National runner-up at NWFSC, 5th in scoring and 6th in steals for the nation. Originally inked with Tennessee, has a career high of 49 college points! 10th rated Pt.G. outta high school by ESPN.com after a AAA Tenseness state championship his senior year. Born on my birthday and might be a fringe overseas candidate in a high octane offensive system.
L’ville Frontcourt: (starters back=1 of 2)
Montrezl Harrell: 6’8” 240 lb. cock of the walk (well, not named Rozier) for the Cardinals. Pure power-forward, nets you 15.5 ppg good for second best in scoring, hauls down 9.o rpg, great for first best in rebounding. Little bit limited on the range on his J at this stage of his game, however, this Harrell kid will do work in/around the rim. Looks like Michael Charles “Blade” Brown from Class Act in the early 1990’s fame indeed. Plays with the same fierce style as well. Was only 6th in the nation in shooting (61%) last year while setting a school record for 97 dunks last season! Has an impossible 7-6 inch wingspan! VERY tough cover down low. Hargrave Military Academy baller, who already sports an u18 Gold Medal. Is indeed a Pro, only question is at what level and which position? Has one shattered backboard on a dunk, to his credit.
Chinanu Onuaku: 6’10” 230 lb. rookie year voter from Maryland. Won the state this time last year and was the 68th ranked scholastic baller according to 24/7. F/C ‘tweener right now. Little more of a defender/rebounder coming outta high school. His debut 4.1 ppg, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks speak to this. 63% shooter who is a strong offensive rebounder as nearly half of his collected caroms have been at the offensive end. Interesting prospect going forward (pardon the pun); presuming his O can catch up to his D.
Card’s Bench: (depth=1-2 deep with 1-3 more getting spot minutes)
- Mangok Mathiang: 6’10” 240 r-sophomore Melbourne Australia import F/C combo baller. Lead L’ville in blocks last year (51) and is more of a defender/rebounder due to quickness and agility/mobility advantages for a Big his size. This actual Sudanese native is getting you 2.3 ppg and a large 5.5 rpg while leading the team in swats in relief at 1.6 bpg. (albeit it on only 35% from the floor and 34% on FTA’s)
- Anas Mahmoud: 7′ 200 lb. string-bean t-freshman C from Egypt. 1.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg from a guy who was 99th in the ESPN.com top-100 this time last year. Student-athlete engineering major who is quad-lingual (English, Egyptian, French and Germanic).
- Shaqquan Aaron: 6’7” 170 lb. rookie year 2-guard from Seattle. Won the trip-A state championship 3 times; and player of the year honors last season. 27th player on the ESPN.com list. 2.3 ppg and 23% from downtown as this kid needs some time and some protein shakes in order to fill out. Said to have an all-round game, ask me back in a year or three on this one.
- Quentin Snider: homegrown 6’2” 180 lb. 18 year old Louisville backyard native. Mister Basketball for the state of Kentucky last season; won KY state title as a Jr. 33rd high school baller according to Rivals. Point-guard who also employs a solid all-round game. Says the person he most wants to meet is “God”. 2.1 ppg and 26% from range; ‘nother guy who needs another year to adjust, add right-mass, mature.
- 7′ 240 lb. Oslo native, Matz Stockman has missed the last 5 games on a turned knee and is “Questionable” for Tuesday night. 1.3 ppg and 2.7 boards when healhty; God Bless. With a 7’6” gigantisoar wingspan and a Spanish League hooping background. Has gone (q-word) on basketball twice, in the game of life!
Loading ...Illation, conclusion (s) and OPT digits:
Virginia Tech is .ooo% on the road thus far this season, where Virginia Tech is allowing a very user friendly 47.6% FG-makes overall and is a eviscerating -16 in rebounding margin.
Louisville on the other hand is 91% at home, and only allowing 37% shooting with a +7 rebounding margin in tow as your host.
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Or in other words, we are looking at at -24 rebounding margin aggregate and a 10 percent change in shooting, to the ‘rong! One does not need any of my 36 orphaned hours of calc and stats to see that that’s not a favorable match-up; and nor are these top-10 ranked Louisville Cardinals.
That said, some of the numbers I ran merely hint at something on the order of a 75-60 point Louisville victory in this one. Because as great as these Cards are on the glass and on defense, this is just not a offenses first based squad.
On the other hand, rebounding and defense should never ever go cold, and if this Louisville offense can work on its spacing, gel, and somehow synthesize a third or forth scorer (possibly via moving someone off the bench), this is a rather formidable looking single-elimination tournament style team come March Madness to be sure.
As nobody will want to draw a hard-out Louisville with this much defending and this much Windex work in their NC2A bracket. FREE Denny Crum’s 151% polyester jacket!!! As Louisville likely rolls in this one, as this one is indeed, all in the Cards.
(93% confidence interval)
Virginia Tech=51, Louisville=78
“LETS GO!”
“Hokies!”
bourbonstreet**