#13 Clemson @ #10 Virginia Tech:

TV coverage: 6pm ESPN2
Vegas line: VT favored by 7 points
Over/under=49 points
VT is a 2.65 to 1 favorite
Clemson is a 1 to 2.25 underdog

Yawnnnnnnnn.

Hold on for a minute and let me stretch.

As a pre-season worth 240 minutes of glorified scrimmaging is finally over and I finally have a real game to cover.

Yawn again.

Sorry.

Here we are.

“So it begins.” –King Théoden-

As Virginia Tech is finally playing a team that could in fact leave all of the O&M faithful feeling rather upset when 9:30pm rolls around on Saturday night. Clemson is a good football team folks, surely the first one that we’ve played during an otherwise sleepy opener to our 2011 campaign. The Tiger offense is dynamic, the Tiger defense is better and far more athletic than its rankings indicate, and guess what? Clemson has a big and bold special teams advantage over the nationwide special teams’ savant his ownself (A.K.A. Frank Beamer).

What’s all of that code for?

A much narrower margin of error than we’ve experienced so far. Cody can not spray kicks, punting needs nothing short of 40 yard boomers, L.T .can not throw picks, and our Tb’s must hold onto the ball. All of which would be a first for 2011 –mind yah.

Top-10:

1. One. As in Clemson is 11th in passing efficiency offense and 16th in raw passing offense itself. (BONUS: Clemson is 11th best in fewest penalties per game in all of D-1)
2. Twenty-Two. VT has picked 22 passes off in its last eleven games.
3. Forty-three. As in VT is only allowing 43 rushing yards per game; ranking VT second best overall in rushing defense. (BONUS: Clemson is 13th in 3rd down conversion offense!)
4. Fourth. As in VT is 4th in total defense in America; whereas Clemson is 90th.
5. Five. Meaning: Frank is 5-3 vs. Clemson overall.
6. Sixty-Six. Hampton native Tajh Boyd is completing 66% of his passes. Good for a sizzling 6.5:1 ratio on the year.
7. Fifty-Seven: Lynchburg native Logan Thomas is completing 57% of his passes. For a 1:1 ratio.
8. 118. As in Clemson returns 118 oLine combined starts up-front and 9 of their top-10 oLinemen from last year.
9. Nine. Meaning: Clemson has not beaten VT since 1989!
10. Ten. As in the number of blank pages at the back of the Clemson media guide for this week. (BONUS: zero, well that is the second whole number in ten and 0 is also the number of Tigers named first or second string all-A.c.c. defense pre-season.

Clemson Offense Scouting report: (Indy tempo Spread, 9 starters back)
624 and 455; that’s the yardage totals that this tricked-out and amped-up Clemson offense just dumped on Auburn and Florida State respectively; as the next Norman Chow might just be Coach Chad Morris up on Death Valley. 80-85; that’s the number of plays that Coach Morris wants his offense to run in a given game. 118, that’s the number of combined returning starts on the Tiger oLine (sources report that Smith is back from having his shoulder a-scoped on top of that) and that puts this 2011 Clemson oLine at a full-fledged 10 deep! Now mix in the fact that this is very possibly the most talented oLine in the entire A.c.c. As the Tigers start 5 guys who were 18^th, 27^th, 39^th, 42^nd, and 54^th ranked coming outta high school at their respective position(s). Behind that they only have the early-season odds-on favorite for the A.c.c. offensive player of the year (Tajh Boyd); playing pitch-n-catch with the most electric Wideout in Atlantic Coast terms in several years (***** star recruit Sammy Watkins). Then, and interestingly enough, Clemson enjoys the services of the 37^th ranked rushing attack in America. Though it did not seem like it on film as it is very easy to become enchanted with the Clemson Indy-tempo based passing attack and fall under their spell. Right now these Tigers remind me of an outside shooting team in hoops; who is in the midst of that 3-5 game hot streak from the perimeter. Everything is clicking right now as this Tiger offensive squad is sizzling hot and feeling no pain. That and the fact that the skill position guys are more parts gazelle and less parts Tiger, as these guys can really move when they do get the rock out in space.

So exactly why is this juvenile Clemson offense so advanced and off to such a fast start? The answer is threefold and I’ve already laid the first part out twice above. Suffice it to say that any offense begins (and possibly ends) upfront with the oLine down in the trenches. And Clemson’s is first best right now in the whole darn A.c.c., ‘nuff said. Secondly we see the fact that Clemson has fundamentally been in camp (at home) for nearly nine consecutive weeks thanks to opening up with four straight home games to begin the season. That gave these Tigers extra home cooked time to tame this up tempo offense and for all 11 Clemson offensive starters to get on the same page, mesh, gel, and get into synch. Finally we see the fact that offensive coordinator (Coach Morris) did something that I’ve always wondered why other in-coming coaches nearly always refuse to do. He morphed his offensive vernacular to fit his predecessors’; which kept the exact same offensive play-book terminology in place verbatim. Hence you witness a far more literate Clemson offense that is fully hooked on Coach Morris turbo phonics indeed.

As the nuts and bolts of the Clemson offense goes, you will see a whole lotta shotgun based sets with a single Rb and a pretty fair amount of singular motion or shifting pre-snap out in front of that. Clemson also appears to favor a measure of a bunch formation or 4-wide tight; with a little balanced line and some more traditional (wider) Pro look as well. Or in other words this is an extremely varied offensive set that throws a whole lotta looks or formations at you throughout the game. Pun very much intended when you note that Boyd averages 35 throws per game and that number is already increasing as Coach Morris becomes more and more comfortable with putting the game into Tajh’s more than capable hands. Tajh himself is an extremely fluid looking quasi pocket Qb with an arm bigger than his ~6` stature suggests that appears to be the prefect fit when it comes to this particular version of the spread offense as this kid has nothing short of point-guard like vision. Tajh sees the field very well despite not exactly being the tallest tree in the woods as modern day Qb’s go, and Tajh is one other very important thing. He’s a winner through and through. You could see this during his bench interactions with the Clemson offense, make no mistake folks, this is already his team in his first year of starting. (for more on Tajh the winner see below). That praise rightfully bestowed: one really oddball foible I did see outta Tajh Boyd is his self-inflicted ability to make himself small on his release. The VT dLine really does need to play with their hands up as Tajh is not exactly a skyscraping Qb to begin with; and than he has the unusual tendency of collapsing his leading or follow-through left-leg when he throws which artificially lowers his release point all the more (see: below pic). In boxing we call this fighting small and in football we call this deflection city just begging to happen. When deflections do not happen I can only assure you that this is a very gifted Wide Receiving crops down in South Carolina. Clemson has nothing short of a whole buncha dynamic play-makers at Wr as the fact that their top-5 Wideouts all average 13 yards per catch or better; ditto the fact that 4 of those 5 have already caught passes in excess of 50 yards or more on the year. If there is a more physically gifted group of Wr’s in the A.c.c. I sure would like to know who they are. Such puts downfield tacking at a premium and although Bud Lite has improved at this, this season, if you miss one of these Clemson Wideouts in space it could damn well be “Katie bar the door.”

When it comes to rushing these Tigers a not quite so gifted as they are when they throw. Which is not to say that this is a bad or even a below average rushing attack; it’s rather that they are a little thinner as Rb talent goes compared to Wideout talent on the whole. That and the fact that the Clemson Rb’s have been a bit dinged up of late says so. Key the Clemson pulling offensive-lineman or the direction of the Te/H-back in motion pre-snap and they will take you to the play 90%+ of the time. The problem is that they do not always move in the same direction; which introduces the misdirection or counter based element in and of itself. B.Taylor and Tariq have had their issues with this already; so keep an eye on them and how they handle any scripted cut-back or ad-lib rushing in this one; as the Clemson Tb’s do have some quicks which could take advantage of an out of position VT Linebacker or two. As for Tajh, he can move, and this Clemson offense looks better and better the more that he does in fact tuck it and run; although he is nobody’s pure rusher as his 45 carries for 55 yards (with 9 sacks) suggests. In point of fact, I actually saw Tajh elect to throw from the read-option offensive set. Don’t see that one very often men. That said, this kid is the real deal, as he is very possibly playing the best Pivot (Qb) football in the entire A.c.c. right now. You will see some pseudo H-back looks and some counter or misdirection based rushing from this Clemson offense; even after a screen-fake to freeze the second-layer; and even with a trailing old-school Wingback behind the play; although this is still an offense that must pass first in order to clear spacing and to therefore set up the run later on.

One other thing that I wanna emphasize is that this Clemson offense is pretty advanced as it goes in scheming pass catchers open. When breaking-tape, Clemson kinda reminded of Boise State a little bit in this regard. As this Tiger offense puts a whole lotta pressure on your middle of the field pass coverage guys (read: second layer Lb’s + Rover) to run with pass catchers who nearly never operate as sit-down or stationary targets. Most of their receptions are on the go and yet again that puts the premium right back on textbook tacking in order to limit Y.A.C. (yards after the catch). In this game you will see a whole lotta timing work or rhythm based routes that come open a split second before Boyd releases the ball via design. It would sure work wonders if Bud Lite could get after Boyd early on or knock the hell outta a Clemson crossing route Wr in the first series or two in order to set a disruptive O&M tone. Because if you allow this already sizzling hot Clemson offense to get in sync, or to discover their offensive up-tempo cadence, it may be a long dang time before your defense gets off the field indeed. (Clemson offensive letter-grade: lowest possible A-, would be higher if I had found a stud Rb)

Clemson Defense Scouting report: (4-3 set, 5 starters return)
Clemson runs a base 4-3 set that in someway(s) reminds me of what Bud Foster does at VT; albeit it with significant subtle changes not so subtly embedded in the same. Note right away that Clemson (mostly) lines-up with a prototype Ng head up in the so-called zero-technique on the Center helmet-to-helmet. In fact, all of the Tiger defensive downlinemen tend to favor the zero-technique, or no less than outside eye to outside eye shading left or right. The Clemson second layer typically cheats one man forward for something of a modified 5-man front; and sometimes two men forward in short yardage situations or in the Red Zone. When Clemson cheats two Linebackers forward you get a wannabe Iowa 4-3 look with two Linebackers eagled down that we/VT imported to help run-fight vs. Gah.Tech last year. When Clemson only cheats the Weakside Linebacker (WLb) forward, you end up with a very similar alignment to Bud Lite. The WLb is our Whip and then you are fundamentally left with twins at Inside Linebacker (ILb) as we see in our very own Mike and ‘backer. Further, just like VT, the Clemson back-ups on defense are very young and inexperienced and there is a drop-off here when then enter the game in relief of the Tiger starters. When Clemson is facing a more normalized field position they drop their Linebackers back about 5 yards off the ball and cheat a Safety up into a modified 5-3-3 look. The Clemson Secondary plays a lotta man with cover-1 (Fs very deep) or cover-2 (not as deep) behind all of that. The Tiger hind-4 on defense is not small, and they are all upperclassmen. This tells us that they are not all that mistake prone, even if they do not number a single all-star candidate among them.

The kicker here in the Clemson front-7 is two fold, some star power sprinkled here and there and the aforementioned technique or alignment by the Clemson front-4.

On paper Clemson has some stud talent at: Ng/Dt (Brandon Thompson), at De (Andre Branch) and at MLb (Corico Hawkins). Let’s be direct for a change folks: Clemson’s zero-technique will be a problem. VT likes to fold-block to the second layer and that will be an issue with nearly 4 downlinemen head-up on most of the obvious rushing downs that you will see. Accordingly; do not expect VT to run well early on in this one gentlemen.

The one thing that stood out to me in Clemson defensive film-study was how much more athletic this 2011 Clemson stop-unit is than those I can recall from the recent past. This Tiger defense is more parts the nimble Cheetah and fewer parts on the powerful Tiger on the prowl; as this Clemson defensive unit is nothing if not athletic and it is downright borderline fast. They are however a bit finesse or style oriented or less parts substance or smash-mouth. So yes, it is true to tell that Clemson has the speed to run with Virginia Tech and can give Virginia Tech some alignments, individual position, and schematic fits. The real question is will this less than rock solid Clemson defense let go the rope as the evening wears on? The other real question is how long will VT stick to its bread-n-butter inside-zone guns? Not real sure I like that vs. a very solid Ng, a small brick’ish MLb behind him; and I am sure I do not like that vs. the Clemson zero-technique guys at all. Finally, I caught more than a subtle whiff of a read-n-react mentality that holds its ground as opposed to hard charging up-field in a attempt to force the defensive issue or simply make plays. The reader will note that Clemson is 98^th in Sacks and second from last (118^th) in Tackles For a Loss. Yes, you will see a blitz off a slot-Wr or from an OLb here and there, though you typically only see one guy blitzing which means you have a lot of guys in coverage (or a lot of guys off the line-of-scrimmage to flow to the run); hence Clemson is 33^rd in Turnover Margin.

In summary, what am I telling all of you? What I’m telling all of you is that this is not a defense that you need to take what they are giving and patiently work your way downfield. This is however a defense upon which you must inflict your will. Both violently and unapologetically; don’t help this defense up when you do knock them down. Go ahead and get a little extracurricular and push, shove and if need be fight right up until the echo of the whistle. If ever there was ever a game where we needed to borrow some Andrew Miller D.N.A., and conduct some temperament gene-therapy on the rest of the VT oLine, it sure is this game. As this is *the* game where the VT offense really needs to play mad as hell! (Clemson defensive letter-grade: a very strong C+++, with enough talent for a B- if they ever put it all together)

Clemson special teams: (both specialists return)
Not half bad, not bad at all. This is pretty good if you ask me when I consider the Tigers history of underwhelming if not outright sloppy looking special-teams play. And here’s the kicker, cough-cough, I mean punter; as it is none other than Clemson who very likely enjoys the services of the best punter in the whole darn A.c.c. Thanks to one #96 Dawson Zimmerman (right). That’s a major edge or a major field-position weapon, and one that could prove lethal in a very hotly contested contest in point of fact. That said, Zimmerman is fighting off a knee injury suffered last week while hosting F.S.U. He is said to be: “probable” for this one. Clemson’s kicking is about even when compared to VT’s, as sophomore Kicker Chandler Catanzaro is only 64% for his career which puts him just a touch ahead of Cody who is only 57% at this stage of the game. Chandler is a all-A.c.c. academic walk-on who appears to be more accurate at longer distances thus far for his career. As Chandler is a nifty 9 of 12 from 40 and beyond down in South Carolina. If it is a wildcard or X-factor that you seek, I nominate either team’s Kicker going say 3-3 or 3-4 and thus securing a victory for their squad in a game whereby points will likely be at a premium. Clemson is 42^nd in punt coverage and 41^st in KO returns defense; such gives the Tigers pretty fair to middling coverage teams. Clemson is only 99^th in kickoff returns, so that part of the Tigers special teams play does need some work. Punt returns are another matter as Clemson is 29^th best at such. Although that is after only four returns on the year; so while the early-returns are indeed encouraging; I’d like to see more outta the Tiger punter returning Wr’s (Hopkins and Watkins) before I am sure. (overall Special Teams letter-grade: highest possible flat-B, which if anything might be a tad low)

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

Conclusion(s), illation & prediction:
Right now I foresee one of two plausible conclusions to this mega big-time game.

1. First up, it is not all that hard to envision which Qb is more advanced, more matriculated, or more precocious at this early stage of their respective r-sophomore seasons. That Qb’s initials are simply not L.T. Right now that Qb’s name is Tajh Boyd who is the smoother and more fluid looking pocket passer. Pretty amazing when you consider that he won his senior year State AAA Championship while playing on a blown A.C.L. that required post-season January surgery up at regional powerhouse Phoebus. His second of two high school state titles mind you … which suggests to me that this kid is a winner. Now compare that to L.T. who is still more parts raw thrower, even if he has improved more in-season that Mr. Boyd has vis-à-vis. Such has left me wondering … should Tajh Boyd does best L.T. head-to-head, if that will manifest itself in full effect as the final scoreboard digits go? Tajh is the fewer mistakes prone Qb with a 0.735% interception percentage contrasted to L.T. who checks in at 3.8%. Tajh has also surpassed L.T. by virtually five-hundred (496) yards on the season. Yes, it is true that Clemson throws more; though I’m also pretty sure that throwing more has helped develop Tajh all the further. Note as well that Tajh’s Qb rating dwarfs the N.B.A. small-forward sized L.T.’s by nearly precisely 50 points (173.8 to 123.0) right on the nose. I realize this is not what most of you wanna read; though the proverbial writings on the wall and the writing reads that Tajh Body is the superior Qb when compared to L.T., right now; today. Down the road –we shall see. Though this game is being played in a matter of hours and that does not give L.T. enough time to catch and supplant Tajh Body. That will have to wait until 2012-2013 before the superior metrics of L.T. begin to showcase themselves to full effect. If Tajh out-plays Logan, Clemson wins.
2. So I’ma gonna pick Clemson to upset VT inside of Lane Stadium on Saturday nite? “Not so fast my friends” as VT does enjoy one rather blatant edge in this football game. Call it what you will, grit, guile, guts, determination, and moxie; or as our very own Bud Foster often describes it: “want too”. Unless I’m fully mistaken, the tougher and more rough-n-tumble football team in pure physical terms is none other than Virginia Tech. VT must punch Clemson right in the mouth with a lead-pipe from the word go and keep the hardcore licks right on coming all nite long. Test the Tigers beard or chin early-on and see if they still do in fact have something of a glass-jaw. Hit Clemson, hit them harder, hit them longer and more often as the night wears on and see if these cutsie or finesse oriented Tigers spit the bit. In short, VT unconditionally must take the physical fight to Clemson; physically manhandle; and outright knock the piss outta these Tigers from the word go. IF VT beats Clemson up, VT wins.

Subplots or in-game swing elements to watch:

• defensive fatigue from either side as both defenses are shallow on depth
• F.G.A.’s. Will either Kicker rise to the occasion
• Qb temperament between off-field friends: is one Qb Isiah Thomas to the other Qb’s Magic Johnson
• Time of Possession: both teams are dominating this metric coming in, so which team will force the other team to fight their fight? VT does not need to chase early on the scoreboard and therefore have to abandon its power rushing game in this one; and Clemson does not need VT to slowly and methodically grind this one out and thereby sit the up-tempo Clemson offense down on the Clemson bench
• Weather: the New River Valley forecast is looking less and less friendly as I type; hopefully, that will cool off a up-tempo West Coast sunny looking Clemson offense indeed

OPT digits:
Do I suspect that Tajh Boyd will out-play our very own beloved L.T.? Yes, yes indeed I do. Albeit it not quite how you may be thinking that he might. Yes, it is most possible that Boyd will have more passing yardage on the evening simply due to the fact that VT will run the ball more often which will give Boyd something in the neighborhood of 150-175% more passing attempts than L.T. will get. Might even be more lopsided if VT can actually run the football well enough early on; however, running is precisely what is on my mind this morning. Note that Tajh’s carries went all the way up to 16 vs. F.S.U. the last time out. He ran the read option a bit more and he even threw in (pun intended) a little flex-bone run/pass option look as well. Recall per Raleigh Hokie’s mega sage series on the Bud Lite defense that Bud Lite is a 1-Gap system via self-design and vis X’s and O’s definition. You get the left A-gap and I get the right A-gap. Will gets the B-gap and Chris gets the C-gap and so forth and so on. Nobody strictly gets the Qb in our base set as this is not an individual assignment based defense. It is a Gap-based defensive system that funnels or spills plays to a hopefully uncovered tackler in the second-layer or beyond. Recall how well running Qbs have done vs. Bud Lite in the past. On the other hand, Tajh Boyd the sizzling hot sophisticate r-sophomore passer making his first road start ever; must throw into a T.Gray secondary that numbers a handful of potential Pros (more if you count the O&M bench) and has the 10^th best pass-rush in all of D-1 football up in front of it. To say that Tajh Boyd does not move well as a passer is a bit of a misnomer. I watched him on the read-option keeper move well enough with a surprising burst downfield vs. a very speedy and likewise very talented Seminole defense last Saturday thank you very much. It is however fair to say that Boyd is not all that friendly to the notion of abandoning the pass via leaving the pocket in the first place. He is willing to take sacks as opposed to making the bonehead throw and he will hang in the pocket just as long as he humanly can in an attempt to make a play with his arm (not his wheels) downfield. This brings coverage sacks into play on top of a normalized maroon typhoon pass-rush. That tells me that we are gonna drop Tajh right on his wallet 5-6 times in this contest. However, does that tell you that that will be enough for Virginia Tech to win thanks to a shaky looking O&M kicking-game, some uncharacteristic VT Tb fumbles, L.T.’s ability to make 2-3 suspect throws per contest and the bevy of O&M walking-wounded? Tajh is still gonna press for 250 (or more) yards passing and Clemson will manufacture at least the centennial mark on the ground (100). So I’ma gonna pick the Tigers to win this one right?

‘rong! Although I was gonna pick Klempson in OT. Not gonna fib about it; not gonna lie like a rug. However, with my cadre of O&M sources are all singing the same Tech Triumph song; this tells me that picking VT can’t possibly be ‘rong. I’ve picked against my sources once in my entire TSL.com career at my own peril, and that proved to be rather perilous indeed. Lesson learnt, I now bet them on the blind and don’t even bother to look at my hole cards. Because whenever you get the goods you simply roll with the goods no matter how good the VT opponent looks in film-study. In point of order, I may very well have given Clemson too much credit below; as the best I can (now) credibly do is to merely add 6 to Virginia Tech’s finally tally and just call the whole thing off.

Oh yah, one other thing: NW winds 21-30 mph and a low of 43f with late game rain. I like that to help cool this mostly sunny Clemson modified west-coast offense off indeed.

(FWIW: I’d pick VT by double-digits or closer to 15 if not for that OT maker I’ve already dropped below).

Virginia Tech=29, Klempson=23, OT

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street