Couple of upsets already as Miami is set to advance as I type, and france has advanced. Pretty game, gutty, gritty efforts for two understaffed squads.
That’s life in the one-n-done format folks.
france and Miami may not be able to win in a 2 outta 3 or best of 5 format; yet for one game they were good enough to live to fight another day. Congrats to both. (have something on Wake in a few)
Friday 12 noon: #9 france vs. #1 Duke (Duke-16.5)
First up, props to le` team for knocking off Boston College with their best player hopefully attending study-hall; second up, props to Chris Coleman for nailing that very upsetting call. france may be better on Defense sans landesberg folks. 41% allowed from the floor and 29% allowed from beyond the arc is not half-bad. Still … that was the first french win since the last time American won a World War for france. Or at least the first french win since 02.03.2010 or about 5 weeks. That’s not good, and there is no way in the world that france will be able to score with a Duke team that is quasi playing at home with +5 days worth of fresh legs. Gar-ron-tee france has 40 minutes left in their season or I will eat this post. Normally takes about 80 points to put Duke down on average, just don’t see that outta the 248th best offense in all of D-1 hoops.
Prediction: Duke by 15+. (odds 82%)
Friday 2pm: #12 Miami vs. #4 Virginia Tech (VT-4.5)
Well, gotta open up with congrats to Miami for their blow-out upset win vs. Wake. Beating the dickens outta the #5 team by 21 points on 52% shooting from the floor and a sizzling 47% from beyond the arc does not suck. Miami and VT combined to play two semi-high and somewhat surprising high-scoring games this year. 76 points per team on average head-to-head if you are keeping score at home. Miami is a pretty decent club; tons of rankings in the 50-somethings to the 70-somethings nationally out of about 347 provisional rankings. The ‘Canes are however 246th in FT% at 66% and change on the year. Miami can be a tad Turnover prone at times as well. All of my sources are giving my boy MD-20/20 and Allen a medical green light and a yellow for caution regarding Hud’ and his lame foot in the AC.C. tournament. Watch how Miami shoots from range for the first 10-12 minutes of play. If the ‘Canes remain hot from 3-point range; they will give VT a fit. If they cool off a bit, they will begin to miss Collins -now confirmed out for the ACCT- and his offensive production as the game wears along. That is my take — VT will slowly widen a never entirely comfortable margin in the second-half after a nip-n-tuck first 20 minutes of play.
Prediction: VT by 8. (odds 69%)
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7pm Friday: #2 Maryland vs. Gah.Tech (GT+4)
GT did come back to beat UNC last nite. I watched and kept thinking … where would this much GT raw talent be if they only had a brain? Or a system? Or some coaching? That said GT plays Maryland pretty tight and is a very sporting match-up for the Terps. GT is 11th in FG% defense allowed, 18th in blocks, and 38th in Rebounding Margin and 39th in steals. All defensive metrics that are effort based and therefore insulated from going cold. That makes GT a very dangerous team in a one-n-done single elimination format. Maryland is simply a damn good team. Winners of 13 of their last 15 and 7 in a row to close the year. One might even say that Maryland is peaking at just the right time; and that is a fine compliment to coach Williams who knows a thing or two about post-season hoops. 18th in 3-point shooting, and 29th from the floor on offense; to go with the 12th best FG% defense allowed is no bad thing. In fact it is pretty freaking attractive; the Terps are a fine all-round hoops team that does not pose an obvious weakness; nor the
associated point of attack. GT has the talent to win, though I’ll stick to the hot team.
Prediction: GT by 5-8, (odds 67%)
9pm Friday #3 Florida State vs. NC.State (NC.State+7)
Can’t say I saw this one coming. The best FG% defense allowed in America -yes FSU is #1 in that at a parsimonious 37% on the season- 10th in blocks, 29th in rebounding margin and 31st in steals. Similar to GT; if FSU only had an offense. Starting Guard Javier Gonzalez has a bad ankle from yesterday’s Klempson upset. Kudos to the Wolfpac for such; however, they do not need to be offensively depleted vs. the big bad FSU Frontline that goes 7`1“ 259 lbs., 6`9“ 238 lbs. and 6`9“ 234 lbs. Good luck getting close to the hoop on them, much less scoring near the hoop vs. the Seminole sky-scraping frontline. However, FSU will only go as far as their backcourt takes them. FSU has only cracked the seal on 71 points in 1 of their last 13 games, which includes a 51 and a 50 point outing. Clearly there are some nites that it just does not take too many point to put FSU down. FSU is better, though State strikes me as a spoiler here; hate to pick against a legit Jurassic Park 7`1“ back to the basket Center. So I won’t. However I will pick FSU in an ugly nail-bitter on a late game winner.
Prediction: FSU by 1. (odds 51%)
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street