#4 R.P.I. North Carolina @ #1o9 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:

#2 in the national rankings and year-in and year-out Atlantic Coast stallwart of m.Jordan, James Worth et al fame comes to town on a very white Sunday nite down in the chilly New River Valley.

U.N.C. checks in at a nifty looking 17 up and only 2 down

As only hosting Northern Iowa (by 4) and Texas (by 2) have had anything whatsoever for a richly deep N.Carolina squad thus far this campaign.

These Heels may not quite have a single-shot superstar Jordan or Worthy this year. Nevertheless they’ve got a a buncha Perkins’, McAdoo’s and the like. As this years incarnation down on Chapel Hill is sick with depth.

Gonna take a lot for a smaller and thinner Hokie squad to pull the upset here, although at home -and with Buzz and company trying to make sucha big 6:30pm deal outta this one- there is a shot. All the more so if U.n.c. will kindly overlook little ole V.P.I.

U.n.c. at a glance:

• 2nd in scoring (86.2 ppg)!!!
• 8th in assists (18.9 apg)
• 18th in Rebounding Margin (+8.9 rpg)
• 20th in FG percentage (48.8%)
• 69th in blocks (4.6 bpg)
• 300th in 3-point FG defense (38.8% allowed)
• 300th in 3-pointers made (5.5 3’s/pg)
• injuries listed=1. Senior year  Joel James, P/F, (Achilles), 6’10”, 280 lb. with 3.2 rpg and 2.9 ppg in relief off the ‘heel bench. Low-post defender/denier.  (God bless!)

‘heel Returning Starters=4

North Carolina Strengths:

• #11, Brice Johnson: has mad all-round game, and gets a little mad on court, and his game will travel (pardon the pun). Standing in at 6’10” and 230 lbs. of P/F in his final season, Brice is leading U.n.c. in scoring and rebounding alike, with 16.7 ppg and 9.8 boards. Was the Gatorade South Carolina Boys Basketball Player of the Year five years ago, and put up some lofty scholastic numbers that he’s never quite reached in collegiate terms. Does have a series of right-ankle rolls however, Godspeed on that. Pretty good Wr in high school football and a national honor society member to boot. Enjoys an offensive rebounding, shot-blocking, and hard finishing rep’. 64% from the floor and 81% from the line tells you something regarding his skill set. Does not have a ton of range on his J, though that’s not really his game, either. Has the look and feel of a multi-millionaire overseas baller with great stories to tell when he comes home speaking a foreign language or three.

  

• Marcus Paige: Lindy’s pre-season all-Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year award winner. Who has made precisely one more shot in every U.n.c. game than I have going back to o1.o4.16. Waaaaaay too good of a player for a truly fugly shooting slump such as this one that he is currently mired in to continue. Listed as a 6/1 173 lb. senior who always appears smaller than that. Raily, thin, lithe, although cat-quick and hard to check or stay in front of for the full 94′. Can defend, can pass, can articulate an offense. A good if not great shooter from all over. Has an anticipatory defensive knack to his game while netting you 13.2 ppg, with 4 dimes and 3 boards and a steal. And yet? Feels like he could be doing more… has been a bit inconsistent, to put it mildly. Having just made one shot per game for three straight games after a 30 point outburst the game before all of that. Go fig’…?
• 6 different heels tally between 10.2 and 16.7 ppg. There is offensive firepower here folks, there is firepower to spare!
• Lindy’s additionally had Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks listed as all-A.c.c. 2nd-string; accordingly, I too will mention them here. Justin Jackson is a 6’8” 193 lb. long string-bean 3 who can even slide over and really mismatch most 2’s. A second year baller who nets you 12.3 ppg, with 4 rebounds and 3.2 dimes dropped. Good all around player, who -if anything- prolly needs a little more range on his J (22% from downtown). Good passer, could possibly morph into a point-Forward in time, as his height advantages see the court very well. Can score inside and beyond the elbow. Did win the Jefferson Award (2o13) as the top home schooled player in the country –which I’ve never heard of until now.

  

• #3 Kennedy Meeks is a 6’9” 265 lb. junior P/F who can and will hang-n-bang. Although the book reads he has added agility and mobility as his conditioning has improved. Makes some sense when you perceive that Meeks got to Carolina weighing ~285 lbs. Has a history of right side leg ills, ankle sprains, hyper-extended knees; God Bless! 12.6 ppg later, about 20 lbs. lighter, to go with a second best 6.7 rpg on 58% shooting and you have a junior year baller who is making slow though steady improvement(s) and is approaching the domain of outright … progress.

North Carolina Weaknesses:

• Lindy’s pre-season magazine hints that North Carolina is a bit thin at the Wing and along the Guard-line. Thin for U.n.c. of course.
• Not the best team on the 3-ball, be that on O or in defense on D.
• Not enough basketballs for this much talent? (and yes, I’m reaching there…)

u.N.C. Bench: (depth=VERY, almost hard to be sure how many sub’s will play, although we will call it a handful+ … as Hicks (6’9”), Pinson (6’6”) and May (6’8” ) make this a very vertical heel pine squad indeed)

Illation, conclusion (s) and OPT digits:

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is… this is gonna be a short closer, as wordpress be hatin’ on letting me in and the 3o4 i-net agrys with me and Dean Martin… “baby it’s cold, out, side!”

And that’s just it, at the expense of putting too fine of a point on it. It is cold outside, it is slick and at least a bit unforgiving for travelers (read: VT fans) outside of Cassell Coliseum. As I hand kinda sorta penciled this one in as a night -with the students back- where we might be able to sneak up on U.n.c.

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Maybe Buzz can get Cassell to open the Student side gate(s)? Clearly peeps who have to drive > the number of feet of snow as distance goes may be recalcitrant to publish their automobiles -much less life/limb- on a nite such as this.

So why not let the students in and let them act out like empty seats on a snowball fighting Drill Field campus night?

Because beyond that? Virginia Tech is an 11 point home Atlantic Cost dog, and remember, the away team wins right at a mere 30% of the time out on the A.c.c. road. Nevertheless, this is a pretty fair to middling away team, and that’s on its worst night of the year. As I like this away team almost as much as I liked Duke at home, to give you a pegging point. As U.n.c. hold massive most recent 5-game trend edge’s…

Like… 9.6% better on defensive FG percentage allowed, 7.3% better on 3-point percentage allowed and +13 in Rebounding Margin! Those; recall, are effort metrics and effort driven vitals should never ever go cold, not even out on the A.c.c. road. U.n.c. is shooting poorly -and very- from range of late however (22.9% from distance), that’s the one single solitary sky-blue catch I could find.

***

The closer:
Ergo, to wit, therefore, …U.n.c. does not scare me as much as Duke did match-up wise as we actually do match-up just a scosche better; here. We have some measure of recent play O&M confidence in tow, and if U.n.c. will remain chilly from distance and if Paige can only maintain his shooting slump for another 40 minutes… we would indeed have a rightful upsetting chance; at home.  Though that’s a lotta if’ing around for this much t.Heel talent and this much t.Heel depth.

Because -as you can see above- gonna take 80’sum points to put U.n.c. down.
Coach Buzz and company need a perfect game and an off-U.n.c. nite.

Stay warm/drive safe, Godspeed!

 

(81% confidence interval)
Virginia Tech=69, North Carolina=82

“LETS GO!”

“Hokies!”

 bourbonstreet**