Virginia Tech @ North Carolina basketball preview:

#62 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #20 R.P.I. North Carolina:

TV coverage: Thursday 9pm ESPN
Vegas Line: VT-6, O/U=141, $-Line: VT+22o, UNC-26o

One of my favorite games of the entire VT sporting year — VT vs. Duke or U.N.C. in hoops and VT vs. the french in anything. If big games like this do not get your O&M blood pumping than perhaps you have spent too much time living under a rock; or been hit by a rock. What a wonderful panacea a win in this basketball game this would be for such an illing VT hoops team.

That said; beating U.N.C. down in Chapel Hill is no small hurdle indeed. It is no secret that my boy MD-2o-2o and company are not exactly in love with Duke or U.N.C. Our guys get up to play one of the A.C.C.’s big two each and every time. Such has produced a couple of Hokie upset wins; and several feisty and hotly contested games that could have gone either way; despite the inherit talent advantage that both Duke and U.N.C. enjoy one through twelve alike. All the more so this season vs. a VT hoops squad that will barely be able to scratch out a 8-man trustworthy rotation for this one. Coach Williams knows this and I look for him to attempt to up-tempo and run VT right into the ground. Coach Seth knows this and I look for him to judiciously call timeouts in lieu of substations in order to give his starters a breather, I look for zones zones and even more zoning from us defensively and I look for us to keep the VT clutch set right at second or third-gear as lower-tempo winter driving conditions suggest.

VT does have a shot here; U.N.C. is not unbeatable, if VT and Seth can control the pace.

U.N.C. at a Glance:

• 6^th in offensive rebounding!
• 23^rd in scoring offense (80 per game)
• 26^th in blocks (5.5 per game)
• 35^th in rebounding margin (+6.3)
• 287^th in FT% (64%)

First in scoring (15), second in boards (8), second in steals (0.9) and blocks (1.3) and first in most FTA’s (86) would be one #44, junior F Ty Zeller. I have to say, I am pretty impressed by those improvements as the legit 7` and now 250 lb. Ty Zeller goes. Not half bad for the oft injured Indiana Mr. Basketball native who has already effectively missed a full season (33 games) worth of competitive basketball due to injuries in the last two years down on Tobacco Road. That’s basically 33% of his sky-blue career. Amazing just how helpful being healthy can be, ain’t it? I’ll own that I never thought Ty would be this good, and he is still improving. Never thought I’d see Kyle Edwards of Road Trip fame and Ty Zeller in the same room at the same time either; yet I digress. Said improvements are pretty notable for a team that saw no less than 41 points per game leave campus spread across five ballers from last year. Ty is something of a true post and not some hybrid Euro floater who prefers to face-up despite being 6`12“ or better on the wing. Ty is now healthy enough and more importantly he is finally strong enough to hold his own (or his position) down on the low-blocks night-in and night-out. Helping Ty out along the U.N.C. front-line would be legacy baller #31 sophomore John Henson. John is a swooping, soaring, elongated SF-PF combo of a 6`10“ 220 lb. wing who added 25 lbs. this off-season and looks like he has enough room to add ~25 more. Henson is third in scoring at 10 and first in rebounding at 9, along with being second in the entire A.C.C. at 2.7 blocks per game. Henson and Zeller combine to give U.N.C. something of a mini-me Twin Towers look upfront; although after those two front-court ballers the Heel’s front-line size is not exactly overwhelming. The third front-courter is all-everything t-freshman #40 Harrison Barnes. Described as a Lottery Pick from the word go, the 6`7“ 210 lb. SF from Ames Iowa is pacing U.N.C. at second in scoring at 12 points per game and is third in board-work at 5.5 per contest. He does have a bit of range at 31% from downtown, and yet he is only 37% from the floor for the year. Curious shoot-selection from a kid that Coach Roy Williams lauded as being:  “…the most focused, disciplined high school player I’ve ever recruited.” Mr. Barnes is said to have the total package as hoops goes, he can pass, dribble and shoot while playing a little defense as well. He has even drawn comparisons to Vince Carter as his aerial assault and dunking ability goes. Accordingly, I gotta say I am a bit underwhelmed by 11 points on 37% shooting on the year from a kid who is all-world and yet has hit the proverbial wall while not breaking 9 points or 4 rebounds since beating up on geeky little ole Bill & Mary four days before Christmas. The rest of the Heels front-line is basically held down by Alabama transfer and grad-student, one #25, Justin Knox. A 6`9“ 240 lb. senior who does a little bit of everything at 6 points and 4 boards on 60% shooting off the bench.

The Carolina backcourt likewise reads like a basketball family tree Human Genome Project as legacy ballers again dominate the starting line-up. First up would be Larry Drew II. #11, is a 6`2“ 180 lb. junior Pt.G who is now only second in assists (3.9) and eighth in scoring at 5 per contest. Those powder-blue footsteps that Larry the II is hearing belong to t-freshman and Dumfries VA native, one #5 Kendall Marshall. Kendall is a 6`3“ 186 lb. Pt.G. who is leading U.N.C. in assists per contest at 4.1; despite only playing 15 minutes per game. The third quasi-Pt.G. would be the Strickland legacy kid, #1, Dexter Strickland who is a 6`3“ 180 lb. sophomore from Rahway N.J. Mr. Strickland has improved and is now forth in scoring at almost 10 per game and leads the Heels as their number one threat from downtown at 45% for the year from distance. Strickland is now playing something of a Lead-G roll and has increased his scoring by nearly 200%, his overall shooting by 9% and his 3-point% by a stunning 22% all from last year. I’d say the 2-G position agrees with him even if he does not have next-level 2-G size. #25 Justin Watts and #2 Leslie McDonald are both 6`4“ VHT (very highly touted) back-court subs that contribute 4 and a nifty 8 points respectively, while 6`7“ t-freshman Swingman Reggie Bullock chipping in with 7 points off the Heel’s bench. Both Watts and McDonald can shoot the rock, as they go 38% and 45% from beyond the arc. Surprise, surprise, you can’t throw a Big Mac without hitting a McDonald’s all-American no matter which way you turn down in Chapel Hill.

Make no mistake, this is a good Carolina hoops team, it is an improving (note the use of present tense) Carolina hoops team, and yet I am having difficulty pronouncing this as an unbeatable Carolina hoops team. They are good up-front, and yes that is a real live problem for such a depleted Virginia Tech front-court. Make no mistake on that, all the more so if Jeff Allen gets whistled for two quickie fouls yet again. Nevertheless, there is something here that speaks to Gestalt Theory in reverse; U.N.C. is less than the sum of its mega (sky) blue-chip parts. Some of that is due to being a bit uneven overall. Too heavy at the Point and actually a bit thin behind Zeller and Henson up-front; unbalanced one through ten as Coach Williams 10-man playing rotation goes. Yes, there is talent to burn here, and yes there is also a certain level of juxtaposition to the Carolina game. I do not know if that is due to Williams not getting all he can outta these kids, or if that is a purely and simply due to the need to import someone to help hem and haw and do something about this lack of a custom-fit one to five as the five traditional Pt.G to true Center positions go in hoops.

Further, when two very highly touted recruits like the Wear twins transfer out, that raises something of a red-flag even at a sky-blue basketball factory such as the one down in U.N.C. That said, of course U.N.C. has more raw talent in their 10-man rotation -not to mention two more fresh bodies- compared to Seth’s makeshift and eviscerated top-8. U.N.C. is the rightful favorite here, U.N.C. is perfect at home (7-o) and U.N.C. has won seven of their last eight. Virginia Tech however has dug their very own O&M heels in and is only allowing 54 points on 36% shooting in their last five games. The assimilation of E.Green into the starting Pt.G. spot has propelled VT to 80 points per game on 51% shooting from the floor over those same five contests. That’s what I call thriving on adversity and than some for a team with five O&M guys out for the year – four of which are studs.

R.A.T.T., the cruel Michael Brewer collarbone break will cost Virginia Tech how many wins? o-1. 2-3. 4 or more. View Results  Loading ...

U.N.C. just played rather poorly up at france after reeling off three lopsided wins vs. three overwhelmed opponents. U.N.C. has been beaten by four of the five name opponents they have faced this year. Ergo, this game is not quite outta O&M reach. I would feel a lot better however if this one were at home. At this stage of such a gutted season, Seth must micromanage the start of this contest to make sure that things do not snowball on him if we open up cold, or if U.N.C. happens to open up unseasonably hot. This one is all about maintaining contact as U.N.C. has not been held to less than 75 points since the last day of November prior to their Atlantic Coast conference bout up in paris the last time out. A.C.C. play means that the out-of-conference U.N.C. full-throttle tempo slows down a bit as intra-conference defensive intensity  steps up.

Well, I gotta say, I am very taken aback by the VT+6 Vegas point-spread. I was thinking double-digits or teenage years. Vegas must think VT has a shot at this one; although I do stand fast to my previous take that tempo wins this basketball game. He who controls tempo the longest laughs last. If U.N.C. opens the throttle up I see no chance that a depleted VT can play catch-up; at least not out on the road. If VT controls tempo, they will not run away and hide from U.N.C., the Heels will remain in close proximity to the Hokies, even at a lower O&M savvy tempo, because of that very same home court. Per such, I’d say VT has about a one in three shot in this one. Yes, Malcolm and company have no love for U.N.C., yes they will be ready to play in National TV terms. All the same, I’m just not seeing this one. Gotta side with the healthy legs, the deeper legs and say that U.N.C. will eventually begin to run away and hide on VT somewhere in the second-half after a feisty and testy tête-à-Têch game in which some O&M frustrations will finally boil over.

This one will have been much closer and much more combative than the final score will suggest for most of the nite.

Virginia Tech=63 North Carolina=77

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street