#13 Michigan vs. #17 Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: ESPN and ESPN3
Kickoff 8:30pm, Tuesday
Payout: $18,000,000.00 (per team!)
Vegas Line: VT is a 2.5 point underdog
o/u=51.points
$-Line: UM is a 1.45 to 1 favorite, VT is a 1 to 1.25 dog
10-2 Michigan vs. 11-2 Virginia Tech in New Orleans.
- Does Virginia Tech belong in the Sugar Bowl?
- For that matter does a lower ranked Michigan who did not even play in the Big-Ten title game belong in the Sugar Bowl?
Such makes no never-mind to me, all of which is sticks-n-stones or as Mae West once put it: “Call me anything … just call me often.”
This one however is a dicey one to call that is riddled with subplots and outright plot-twists. Is VT rested or rusty after 8 days off for an extended Xmas break? Is Michigan primed for prime-time or worn down after too much work? Does VT have anyone who can place-kick left on the roster? How much self-policing and or just how hungover will Hoke’s crew be after being giving free reign of Bourbon Street proper? How about the brusque starting Wolverine De/Dt (#39 Will Heininger) who has a bad foot and (now) looks to be “questionable” to play in the Sugar Bowl? How pissed is Frank at all the negative media attention about VT not meriting an at-large B.C.S. bid after getting waxed by Klempson in the A.c.c. championship game? Is this David Wilson’s last game in an O&M uniform?
I’m told the answer to one of those is “yes”, as for the rest; let’s find out…
Top–10:
- #1! As in Michigan is #1 all-time with a world leading 894 college football wins! (VT=679 wins all-time)
- Twenty-nine. As in my boy David Wilson only needs 29 yards to become the all-time single season rushing record holder at VT!
- Third. As in VT is 3rd best in Red-Zone defense whereas UM is only 4th best. i.e. points will be at a premium inside the 20 yardline in this one men. (BONUS: UM has out scored their opponents by over 205% in the second and third quarters, and by a game breaking 268% in the fourth quarter –a surefire sign of a well conditioned football team indeed)
- Four. As in 4.32 forty time for D.Rob of Michigan. Better than MV1’s real 40-time folks! (BONUS Drager has 14 receptions this season and all 14 have gone for a TD or a first-down!)
- Five. Meaning, 5 Hokies have snagged 20 or more passes this season. Only the third time that has ever happened. (BONUS: 5oo, the total number of offensive plays by L.T. this season, a new Qb school record!)
- 36. UM is the least penalized team VT will face all year long. Fifty best in D-1 at only 36 yards per game in reverse. This is a very well coached football team folks –that won’t be beating itself.
- Seventeen. As in Bud Lite has fielded a backbreaking 17 different defensive starters already this year!
- 8,376. That’s the number of combine offensive line plays from VT four departing senior season offensive-line starters for the Sugar Bowl! (BONUS with 328 knockdowns this year alone!)
- Nine. As in VT fielded a stunning 9 sophomore starters for Klempson or just under half of the 2013 team. (BONUS this is Frank’s 19th consecutive bowl game) (DOUBLE BONUS: 9 of UM’s 10 wins came against teams with 6+ wins)
- Ten. As in L.T. already has 10 rushing TD’s on the season. Second most ever at VT for a Qb.
- Well, let’s make this a Top-11 for a change as VT has never won more than 11 football games in a season.
Michigan Offense: (Pro base with some spread elements reconstituted, 9 starters return)
This is a fun little offense to watch with a leaner and meaner looking mini-me T.Rex sized oLine and play-makers everywhere less Wr. An alleged Pro style offense that as at least partially shed its Sunday skin and reverted back to the richrod shotgun spread set plays which have only aided and abetted D.Rob’s ad-lib cause.
Speaking of D.Rob that is where this UM-aa offense begins and virtually ends. Well, outside of 1,011 rusher at Tb, the 6`1“ 193 lb. and southern hemisphere wiry looking junior year sensation and Big-10 honorable mention Pivot is the whole show, that would be code for Mr. Denard Robinson. Denard is a streaky passer who can make any throw in the book on a hot day. That said he has had a 37.5% day, a 38.9% day and no less than three other days south of 41.2% passing this season. Sources close to Ann Arbor say that he also had a nasty staph infection in his throwing (right) elbow (see: pic), along with a throwing hand injury and an abdominal problem, all during that mid-season slump. Nevertheless, on those days D.Rob has made about as many plays (7 TD’s) as he has mistakes (8 INT’s). During his other 6 games he only managed to manufacture a 9:7 passing ratio. That said again, D.Rob has had 5 games where he cracked the century mark (100 yards) in rushing and he went north of 169 yards three times outta those five. Or in other words D.Rob’ combined for a whopping 2o4 points on 35 total TD’s this season. So it is not necessary for this kid to beat you via the airwaves when he is perfectly capable of beating you with his wheels on the ground. 1,163 rushing yards says so, and when you mix in 1,011 yards rushing from the former sixth string-Tb who does not even have a hotlink to his UM football roster biography page (one #28, 5`10“ 2oo lb. Fitz’ Toussaint) you suddenly have the 12th ranked rushing attack for all of D-1 football. After that UM-aa is 40th best in passing efficiency and 26th best in sacks allowed and a very pedestrian 64th in TFL (tackles for a loss) allowed.
As for the D.Rob particulars, detailed film-study uncovered the following individual tendencies or traits regarding #16:
- a very quick release from a very compact throwing motion, almost Marino ‘esque at times
- a low release point from a guy who is not exactly a skyscraper to begin with (Coach Wiles boys needs to get their hands up and go for a few deflections)
- +++speed, speed to burn as D.Rob has been timed in the 40 in excess of our very own MV1, in fact he possess the best lower-end acceleration curve cuts, juke-moves or shakes of anyone I’ve ever seen on film
- not really big downstairs, hence my use of the term “wiry” above –I would not mind seeing VT submarine him legally and see how he holds up (see: above pic)
- locks in on his primary target and telegraphs his throws a bit, Whitely and Exum need to mind the O&M store on this one as I only saw D.Rob make a couple of tertiary reads in breaking tape, with him it is one read, sometimes two and then whatever his skates can create
- very savvy play-action faker once the Wolverine rushing attack begins to roll, hides the ball well, and has a couple of strands of Roger Staubach D.N.A. mixed in somewhere in his salesmanship game
As for the rest of the UM-aa offense, the left-side Wolverine oLine is loaded for bear, or Cuban or Russian moonboot confiscating invaders. Red Dawn 1980’s movie Wolverine reset … insert here –check.
The left-Ot (#77 Taylor Lewan) is an all-conference baller in a year or two tops, maybe even more than that; the Center (#5o, Matt Molk) is only the best Center in all of D-1 football, and on top of that Michigan can align the second or thrid best blocking Te in the entire Big-12 and have 3 outta 4 all-star candidates shoulder-to-shoulder-to-shoulder-to-shoulder when their oLine is read from left-to-right. That’s a whole lotta trouble for whichever VT De and Dt combo finds themselves lined-up on the O&M right and you just know UM-aa is gonna run left whenever they need some surefire tough yardage in this one. The rest of the Wolverine oLine ain’t exactly flotsam or leftovers mind you, and this is a big (tallish) version of a spread blocking oLine with the associated quick feet(s) and just enough voltage to play powerhouse traditional Big-10 football. I like to think of this UM-aa oLine as basically being Miami Lite.
#28, sophomore Fitz’ Toussaint is a 5`10“ 2oo lb. Rb who basically has come from way way down the August camp depth-chart to lead all Michigan Rb’s in rushing this season with 1,011 on the ground. Fitz’ is a Rb who runs bigger than his stature suggest despite the darty signature nature of his game –and he has surely been on fire of late. 150 yards rushing per game since the month of October says so even if he is nobodies’ threat to catch the ball outta the backfield. Speaking of pass catchers, UM-aa has three guys who average at least a first-down and a half (15.0 yards) or better per catch; and all three of ‘em have logged a long of at least 57 yards on the season. The odd part is that none of the UM-aa pass catches including Te’s have caught more than 32 balls on the year and none of ‘em have scored more than 4 majors (TD’s) thus far this campaign. However, UM-aa has a downright unheard of 11 guys averaging 11 yards or better per reception this season! Think about that one for a minute, that’s 11 guys all averaging at least a first-down and change per grab and 9 of those 11 ballers has a long reception of 27 yards or better this year! So even if the UM-aa pass catchers appear to not be all that dynamic or flashy at first blush, they do cover a whole lotta ground whenever they do catch the football making this a very underrated if not a rather underutilized pass catching corps.
(overall Michigan offensive letter-grade: a middle of the road A-, that is actually nearly an A+ when D.Rob’ is locked, cocked and ready to rock, as this is a very balanced looking offensive attack indeed folks)
Michigan Defense: (4-3 base, 7 starters back)
Pretty good defense here folks, not an epic one, not an off the charts play-making one either. However, this is a very well coached defense that plays rough-n-rowdy, hard-nosed fundamentally sound football. Or in other words, this Wolverine stop-unit is one that you have to go ahead and beat as it won’t be making game altering mistakes and therefore beating itself.
This UM defense operates from a traditional 4-3 base, although I did see some forty-four (4-4) or even some fifty-two (5-2 … see pic) looks on film with the Ss and the Sam-Linebacker cheating up respectively.
This 2011-12 UM defense begins upfront and personal with a coterie of run-busters who play a very physical internally suffocating brand of rock-em sock-em football right at the point of attack. The UM dLine is good, it is solid and it is deep. Well, at least it was deep before the injury to starting De/Dt combo Will Heininger that has left the starting UM dLine a man down as my sources report that he is not only in an air-cast he is on crutches and unlikely to play in the Sugar Bowl; or at least highly unlikely to play well if he does somehow manage to bite the bullet and suit up. That said, one UM Dt was second-team all-conference (#68, Mike Martin) and the other was honorable mention all-Big-10 (#53, Ryan Van Bergen) –both guys are at least 21 years old and both guys are physical A-gap run-stuffers on the inside for the Wolverines. The diminishing part is that Heininger has been seeing more time at Dt of late thereby giving UM a tireless 3-headed monster right up the gut. Now we see that back-up walk-on De Nathan Brink is out as well. Suddenly, the strength of the UM defense is not so unyielding looking on Big-Blue paper as it was only a week ago; and fatigue could be an issue here if the VT offense can control the clock as the nite wears on.
As stated above, UM aligns in a base 4-3 and you will see the seldom seen partial slants, and stunts from one side of the UM dLine and normal technique(s) -with some 0-technique (see: pic) from Martin as a pseudo Ng vs. Miller- from the other side from time-to-time. You will also see the Sam-Lb cheat up (see: pic) to give UM a 5-man-front and thereby overload the strong side (Te side) or the wide-side of the field in a transparent attempt to force things back inside and right into the teeth of the Wolverine defense. You will also see the Ss sneaking forward to give UM a 4-4 or multiple fronts. Both guys (Sam and Ss) will blitz when cheating up and UM utilizes a variety of run-blitzes in attack on Lo.FM’s (Longfield Management) which have given VT some measure of trouble (if not outright fits) in the past. On more traditional down-n-distance situations you will see UM go with read-n-react. The UM Lb’s play an extra yard off the LOS (line-of-scrimmage) about 5+ yards deep and they do tend to play uncovered. They are rock solid when it comes to run-fighting between the C-gaps although they did not move as well laterally and the Mike (#25, MLb) tends to outright plod at times in east-west pursuit ditto when “two-five” drops into hook zone coverage in terms of covering outside or into the flats. UM plays either Shell-2 or Cover-1 with the Fs 15 yards deep in centerfield when the Ss cheats forward with medium to off-man on the edges or 1 Cb in tight-man to mix things up a bit from time to time. That said, there is room to operate behind and adjacent to the Mike Linebeacker’s hook-drop, and of course over the head of the hard-charging Ss (Kovacs) who is about as durable a baller as you can hope to find. Kovacs is a throwback in the truest sense of the word; as this is a Bo Schembechler kid trapped in the modern-era; although his recovery-speed is not entirely Usain Bolt ‘esque when caught cheating forward against the pass.
By and large, this Wolverine stop-unit does moderate a tad the further you move away from the LOS and VT may just be catching this Wolverine defense at just the right time via attrition along the Wolverine dLine up front. Coach God Bless Mr. Heininger and Mr. Brink on that.
Now, do be clear that UM is above average in all three layers. It’s just that the UM OLb’s are young (sophomores) and the UM secondary is not as gifted at one Cb (#29) and at one Safety (#15). T.J. Ford was just named honorable mention at one Cb and the Kovacs kid is only the number-two returning Big-10 tackler from a year ago, making him something of a post-season snub this campaign.
(overall Michigan defensive letter-grade: a low B+, as this unit is very fundamentally sound and quite internally rugged vs. the run; if not overtly athletic sideline-to-sideline on the balance, and there are areas or zones which can be attacked –i.e. the edges!)
Michigan Special Teams: (1 specialist returns)
MU enjoys the services of the #3 punter outta High School and the #8 kicker from the same as the one thing these Wolverine special-teams are not left wanting for is talent.
Will “I have the greatest punting surname ever” Hangerup is more of a directional or control-punter than he is Lee
Majors as the 6 million dollar man with his bionic leg revisited. Will is not known for his distance anymore than he is known for his hang-time as UM is only 1o7th in D-1 football in Net Punting. UM’s punt coverage is a very vanilla 69th best. This is a simply a get the ball outta there sans the block and turnaround and play defense version of punting indeed. The Wolverine punt return game is also rather pedestrian at 51st best in all the land. UM has a long of 32 yards at such and though adequate Wr Jeremy Gallon is nobodies Desmond Howard redux. The MU Kickoff return game is borderline inert at 100th best in D-1 football as the Wolverines only enjoy one KO return for more than 24 yards and it only went for 33. The MU KO coverage suicide squad is a middleocre 57th best.
FG Kicking however is another matter entirely, and as you know by now VT is down to its third string FG and P.A.T. Kicker (Justin Myer). UM trots sophomore #34 Brendan Gibbons out there where he has gone 98% on XP’s (with one miss) and 71.4% on FGA’s. Brendan is quite serviceable out to about 40 yards, after that his passable though not epic leg strength shows itself to be a little bit shy as Brendan never even attempted a single FGA beyond 43 yards all year long. That said, and despite an uneven finish to the season, UM prolly enjoys a modest edge here should this Sugar Bowl come down to one swing of the leg, –just so long as it is not a long range one where Myer prolly has a noticeable if not erratic edge.
Michigan blocked one punt this year and had one of their own FGA’s snuffed out. Michigan returned no kicks or punts for scores all year long and did not allow any special teams scores either. (overall Wolverine special teams letter-grade: a high C-, as this UM special teams unit has underwhelmed all year long)
X–Factors:
- “We didn’t come here to party, we came here to win.” -Eddie Whitley-
- +4 extra practice days for UM-aa, are they razor sharp or worn down for it?
- -4 practice days for VT, are they resty or rusty for it?
- VT kicking sans Cody.J and Weiss, “it’s not just a job, it’s an adventure”, will VT have to go for it or punt on fourth-down?
- UM-aa with no curfew and self-policing on my username, is the Sugar a reward or vacation for the Wolverines?
- L.T.’s first BIG bowl game as the starting Qb, how will he respond to the Sugar Bowl limelight?
- All the national media nay-saying regarding VT’s at-large B.C.S. bid after getting pumped in our conference championship game
- Chris Hill’s Cb injury (M.C.L.) … how much Nickle can Bud Lite now afford in defense of D.Rob’?
Illation, conclusion, OPT digits:
Right now I see several edges in this one, that favor whomever in the long haul, presuming whomever takes full advantage of them to begin with…
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By my count that’s +2 for Michigan, +2 for VT, than an oddball -1 for VT.
Well, unless you live under a rock, or have recently been hit by a rock, you may not be aware of the whispers that say that stud UM-aa Qb Denard Robinson has “tweaked” his ankle, is “in a walking boot” and yet “will play” in the Sugar Bowl Tuesday nite, even if he is “less explosive” than otherwise expected when fully locked, cocked, and ready to rock.
#7 (middle) is the back-up Qb up in Ann Arbor. Don’t feel too overly sorry for the Wolverines if one #7 (Devin Gardner) has to go. As you can see this is a big big boy, a chiseled hurt-dispenser if you will, as Devin is a dual threat Qb and even if he is a bit less dynamic carrying the ball, and even if his passing is a tad less polished passing the ball, he was the #4 Qb recruit in all of America two years ago for a reason. Now, note that as a combo-Qb, the UM-aa play calling need not change much if D.Rob’ can not close the show or if his play should prove to be ineffective via being a bit hobbled.
That said, none of this D.Rob’ injury business will change how the N.F.L. quality UM-aa defensive staff attacks and blitzes the Hokie offense. In fact, it is now my postulate that UM-aa will begin blitzing VT just as soon as VT steps off the game bus. Ditto the fact that VT (now) has a Kicker who can kick it from here to Kentucky even if it might land in Tennessee. So yes, God Bless D.Rob’ and his bum ankle though don’t cry for me Argentinian, nor for the 7 former Bud Lite starters who are out for the year -B.Taylor is finally off of crutches after 7 weeks on them mind you- nor for the 3 Bud Lite starters who will suit up, bite the bullet and take the pain to play for all of you tonite. Such is the nature of a terminal contact-sport where you must play the butchers bill and the butcher always collects.
Now, do be clear, this D.Rob’ injury does not hurt VT’s chances to win one iota.
This injury does however lower total scoring and puts an even great premium on taking the early lead for either side and therefore forcing the opposition to give chase. This also now makes what I had considered to be a probable 7-10 point UM-aa win a much dicier deal indeed.
So, as of 2:30pm, the latest UM-aa intel’ has confirmed that D.Rob suffered “a minor ankle roll” and what one published source is calling a “slight roll” on Friday at practice.
That puts me back on UM-aa to win in what should be an epic game that will thrill the Bristol suits to no end. This one is gonna see-saw, this one is gonna go back and forth and this one will not be for the faint of heart. The locus of this game is indeed D.Rob’s “tweaked” ankle, though it is my current thesis of thought that it is well enough to just barely get the job done. That and the fact that the VT offense does not handle the blitz well and does not adjust or counterpunch well in-game to such is another O&M conceit, albeit not an attractive one.
Don’t blink, you might miss something important, though I’ll side with the best frontline I see (UM-aa’s oLine) and superior kicking to eek out a bittersweet win down in the Sugar Bowl as even when beaten you will be proud that our beloved Hokies totally played their living guts out and left it all out on the field.
Virginia Tech=18, Michigan=33
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
bourbonstreet**
