#29 R.P.I.  Cincinnati v. #59 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:

Today’s word of the day is… Nativity.

na·tiv·i·ty

(nə-tĭv′ĭ-tē, nā-)

Cincy Defense: (starters back=7)

• frothy-three base set.
• 101st in Total D with 109th in passing yards allowed (80th in rushing D).
• 4, that’s f,o,u,r Fumble Returns for a staggering 28 points!
• something of a wider Will Lb alignment East-West, what old-schoolers used to call a ‘web” look (think: spiderweb, or trap). Will also use a laterally expanded passing down second-layer look, with both the Will and Sam well outside your widest oLineman/Te, in a slight arrowhead set.
• 73rd in TFL inflicted, and 30th in Qb’s sacked (33)

  

• “1L” … team tacking leader, one 6′ 259 lb. starting MLb Jeff Loc, has that as his official jersey number per the Cincy Media-Guide. Yes, I have no idea, either. (pic) (beyond a double issuance of #1)
• Will spy on your Qb, with some shallower looking hook-zone Lb’er drops.
• deploys a 5’9” 181 lb. SAM Lb, (#12, L.Payne) gotta think he’s a target here. Can cover, as he was a pretty solid Cb coming outta high school.
• base medium-man, with generally more uniform Fs and Ss depth, i.e. not as much vertical stagger as you’d traditionally expect. Lotta Shell-2. One starting Cb only tips the Toledo’s at 162 lbs. LOVE to iso’ Bucky vs. #13, G.Coleman.
• Generically speaking, not as blitzy as most modern D’s | did red-dog a bit more in the red-zone, however. Likes to keep everything in front of it, with a horizontally wider umbrella look.
• Was some room to work the edges with quicker hitters vs. the saggy Man looks.
• Will toggle into a very deep Fs look, which opens up 2 seams near the hash-marks behind the lower fielding Lb drops.
• Pretty rangy athletic looking D on film, will jaw at you post-play. Tackles “ok”, looks better on paper and on the chalk-board than it did on tape.
• Kinda reverse Gestalt Theory if you will; whole <<< sum of parts.

‘Nati Offense: (returning starters=7)

• Spread modified offset Pistol Set, 3-4 full time Wideouts, Ace single back look
• 27th in Total O, 13th in passing O (69th in rushing offense)
• 19th best in Sacks Allowed, and 2nd fewest TFL (Tackles For a Loss) allowed! VERY tough to make negative plays vs. this Bearcat oLine.
• pass first scheme that eventually sets up a duo of adequate enough if smaller Tb’s.

  

• Will throw on 3rd and short (including long) and will Draw-run when they should pass.
• 1st offense I’ve seen in a while carry (pun intended) out post-Pass play-action fakes to a Rb!
• Qb Gunner Kiel, all-world Notre Dame transfer with a big arm, can make every throw in the book. Said to be very precise, although 60.2% could have had a narrower aperture. Nice touch on the long ball, does NOT appear to pass as well on the move however. Craftier runner than I had expected for not having epic vertical speed.
• Will use Quad-bunches both short/wide, which could not have any more organic picks, rubs, or run-offs if the formation itself actually tried.
• Tallish, sky-scraping oLine, little bit young with a r-Fr. and 2 sophomores.
• Does have some internal read option looks with Kiel, which would seem much more potent with Munchie Legaux.
• Did see a few botched ‘gun snaps and hand-offs outta Kiel, as he is just not a pure dual-threat or option based Qb.
• Lottsa fold or seal blocking down the L.O.S. (line-of-scrimmage) here, as the play-side Cincy Ot is the lynchpin if/when they can pin your play-side De and Dt and collapse them into the center of the field dogpile. Gotta think Cincy will be after my always willing though not exactly massive boy Dadi here.
• Run attack lets the Rb pick his holes rather than heavily scripted calls, pretty quick hitting, more of a stretch-zone look. Will counter or crossbuck if the Rb so chooses. i.e. he can cut-back whenever/wherever he wants
• Lotta decent enough to good pass-catchers, not real sure I saw an Ace so much as I saw a lotta 10’s and Jack’s.
• Real nice blended approach to passing in tape. Will stretch the field both laterally and horizontally, first stretch however is to the edges and quick-hitting. Cb tacking will be at a premium here.
• Very good envelopment based pass blocking offensive line that moves its feet’s well on film. (THIS could be a key match-up, as I’m not sure the VT O can keep up, if we give Cincy too much time to think then to throw)
• whole>>>sum of parts.

Bearcat Special Teams: (each returns)
Punting: 6’4” r-senior Sam Geraci of Moller High School scholastic football fame punts for Cincy, and he punts better than average; despite what his nominally below average numbers would suggest, prima facie. 86th in net punting is not that great, however 12th best in the nation in Punt Return defense, is. As this is a hang-time and coverage oriented punt team, not so much a Ray Guy howitzer for a leg distance factory. 88th punt return unit; nothing too epic to see here.

Kicking: was pretty dang tight as Andy Gantz took over and went Another 48 hours all year long. 15 of 18 does not suck, neither does reliable if not bionic range out to about 45-48 yards. That’s pretty decent work if you can get it outta a red-shirt Fr. rookie year, nearly tiny looking kicker with a lower release point to aim for at 5’8” and a mere 158 lbs.!

Cincy was only 95th in KO Return defense allowed. Zero return TD’s this year for Cincy in KO’s and Punt Returns alike. Zero punt blocks allowed, zero opposing punts blocked as well.

Special Teams letter-grade: (a C+++, as this is a pretty solid if not electric ST’s unit, which is no more glamorous than it is error prone)

X-factor(s):

• Frank Beamer’s throat surgery bowl-practice absence, difficult to say that this helps. mice>>>play>>>cat’s away
• O&M bowl tempo: source’s suggest that VT has actually practice more than in the past, is that what a lame team in need of R&R needed?
• health: At least a nominal return to vigor for a very very wounded looking VT.
• location: if anything this should favor VT due to geographic campus proximity itself
• surface: synthetic field-turf, edge to Cincy
• weather: N/A with o% chance of precip’, high of 48f
• Ryan Pugh: “was a grad assistant at VT last year and worked with SL at Auburn. Is now a grad assistant at Cincy in charge of the OL and scout team. Cincy should be very well prepared. Our record against former coaches has been poor.” (FROM: vtlee of TSL pay side fame)
  

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:
Cincy is a well disciplined football team, at 13th and 14th respectively in penalties and penalty yardage whistled against; and 39th best in in the all important Turnover Margin (+.33). Or in other, Cincy won’t be beating Cincy any time soon and you will have to do your very own Bearcat heavy lifting here. The Bearcats are also not overly ripened or mature in class-rank terms, which leaves one wondering how they will respond to the heavily extracurricular activity prone Bowl environment? As this is clearly a program on the come, as their best days under Tommy Tubberville are out in front of them with such a budding youngling star on the emergence at Qb.

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Oddly enough, we have our handy-dandy friend the so-called Forum Guide of Graham Houston British boxing writer fame back in play here; as each squad scrummed this season vs. E.C.U. and vs. “the” OH.State. Which and according to said Forum Guide, is remarkably enough, predicting a 10.5 point O&M win. And we all know that try as you might, you still can’t spell VicTory without Vee.Tee.

Nevertheless, football is never quite that easy, is it? Don’t believe me? Just ask our Training Room report(s) how that one tastes. Or just ask our five L’s by: 7, 3, 5, 2 and 3 points again. Or in other words, Virginia Tech was less than 5 full plays removed from being 11-1. Likewise, Virginia Tech was less than 2 full plays removed for being on Christmas Break at 4-8 courtesy of a upsetting 1 point win at Duke and a 4 point win vs. hateful uva. Or in other words -and as any savvy female football fan will tell you- football is indeed “a game of inches.” Just ask the wetwork here, as the wetwork here forecasts a sticky afternoon indeed.

This brings us to our final word of the day for this year…

Hendiatris:

Hendiatris

1. from the Greek: ἓν διὰ τριῶν, hèn dià triôn, “one through three”)
2. is a figure of speech used for emphasis, in which three words are used to express one idea. ex.) “wine, women and song” -Martin Luther-
   
3. “Attack. Done. Next.” Michael Jordan personal trainer and Relentless author, Timothy S. Grover.

Attack:
Do not wait on these Bearcats, do not give chase to these Bearcats, as scoring has been south of easy for Virginia Tech this campaign, and sometimes even less than that. Save nothing! Open up the whole damn O&M play-book and let ‘err rip! As this is a more balanced football team than their reputation posits … what with 454 pass attempts against 421 carries or a 52%:48%percent pass-run matrix if you are keeping score at home. Ergo, the sooner we can make Cincy more uno-dimensional the better, though that does require Virgina Tech to play from the lead A.S.A.P.

Likewise, attack this uber-talented although not exactly uber-experienced all-everything Qb from the word “go”. As said above, Gunner does not gun so well on the move, and he is not exactly a home-run hitting rushing threat, and he tends to retreat backwards making for deeper sacks when they do occur. As a runner he’s more like a singles hitter who bunts pretty dang well. The illustrious pass-protecting Cincy oLine will wanna quibble with me on this one … however, the sooner we can knock Keil on his wallet the better, and the more often we can knock him on his sophomoric wallet the worse for them. As Gunner was prone to 3 INT games here and there, when dully pressured enough.

Done:
Once we are done with that, there should be some measure of room to run, presuming Trey’s shoulder and clavicle are good-to-go solo, and presuming my boy M.Brewer’s quite plural aches and pains are a good deal healed up. Use a healthier M.Brewer on short to medium hand-free (i.e. stop reigning him in) passing to set up the run for the fresh-legs of Trey and J.C.C. Take a page right outta the Bearcat playbook and use their very own offensive matrix against them.

Next:
Q. what do you call the greatest dragon-slayer in the history of the Kingdom, the instant he slays the final dragon?

A. Bored. (or at best unemployed)

Or in other words jump from peak to peak, from goal to goal. This one is not merely about winning the 2014 Military Bowl men, this one is not merely about extending a 22 year winning-streak, this one is all about program perception. As a L or negative record of even one game (at 6-7) would be a major perceptual blow to an already 3-year sagging O&M ego. As there is a whole helluva a lot ridding on this bowl game men, way way more than the untrained or non-philosophical pigskin Eye can see.

Ergo, to whit, this bowl game requires something of a carnivorous or secular rakehell based approach from Virginia Tech and company.

Sex and father-time are the only two all-time undefeated things on this planet this side of Coach God. Yes, Frank is aging, and yes he’s had a bad post-season thus far (Godspeed @his throat). And yes, everyone reading these words loves getting sexxed. That’s the attitude we need to cop in this one gents. As I my ownself opened up seeing Cincy winning by about 1 to 1.5 full plays. Although I have recent reason(s) to narrow that perceived margin all the way down to just about a pick ’em or even game. Though I wanna crunch a few more numbers and see if I can firm that one up a bit, and I’ll get back to you on or around Christmas –a happy Nativity to all, and my Coach God bless you and yours!

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CLOSER:
The Virginia Tech offense has broken 24 points, once, since the first week of October –therefore, such would appear to be a trend.
The Cincinnati offense has failed to break 38 points, once, since the middle of October –therefore, such would appear to be a trend.

Therefore this one is ultimately a game of strength on strength: or the welcome back Bud Foster stop-unit vs. the high flying Cincy O. And simultaneously a game of weak on weak what with the 96th ranked Virginia Tech offense vs. the 1o1st best Cincy D.

There is an old-timer boxing adage that says when faced with basically an even or pick ’em kinda fight, it is the match-up of weak on weak that finally tells the tale. As there are NO secrets to be found these days after each team’s film-room has micro sliced and spliced all 12 prior football games up in quantum analysis terms. The key here is what will macro emerge, or rather which coaching staff can canvas a heretofore unseen weakness advantage head-to-head when the barely trending water Hokie O takes the field vs. the underwater Bearcat D.

Observe that Virgina Tech is +8 days in rest for this one, thanks to upstart conference title tilt that Cincy had to play the second Saturday after our Black-Friday uva game. Notice that the Hokies appear to have a far more rested Michael Brewer and a now likely to play Trey Edmunds back in near -if not full- commission. If I were Cincy, I would have rather played a beat all to hell Virginia Tech right away on a regulation 6 days of rest. Such maximizes lame O&M training room penalties and such keeps my pretty hot Bearcat offense from cooling off itself.

Or in other words, Virginia Tech is prolly catching Cincy at about as good of a time as a lame Virginia Tech can. Yes, as my negative confidence interval suggests,  the odds do favor a R.A.T.T. Cincy win here.

“If you play the odds.” -James Bond-

So get ready to make your T-face one more time, as I sense a major come from behind techgaism is forthcoming.

(confidence interval=31%)

Virginia Tech=26, Cincinnati=2o

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**

Merry Christmas 2014 A.D.!

p.s. say a super Prayer for Frank! Not getting or hearing anything good here folks, as methinks TV coverage will finally out some of this tomorrow afternoon; I’ma just gonna leave those words to them, as I told my peeps they have my oath of silence on this matter because they do.  As I’ve been hearing some very very scary words regarding poor Frank’s throat.

Is this Frank’s last game? It could be. However, methinks the hard ass old-school trench fighter -that is Frank Beamer- fights through, stays the course, and does not go gently into this bad night.

I also now fully expect that Cincy well may walk -or damn well get pushed- right into an O&M emotional buzz-saw of all-out desperate game of life whirlwind proportions this Saturday afternoon between 1 and 5pm.

p.s.s. YOU really should answer the 1pm bell and cheer you Hokie ass off for this one! This one will be fought on the highest level of all O&M emotions!!!