#63 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #105 R.P.I. NC.State:
TV coverage: ESPNU, 9pm Wednesday
Vegas line: EVEN, O/U=133.5
We are #34!!!
34th in the ESPN-USA Today old-school coaches poll.
I don’t know about you, though if I were a betting man, and I am, I’d wager than the 4th highest ranked A.C.C. basketball team gets into the Big Dance most years.
That’s where we/VT are in terms of a count-down of teams listed under Others Receiving Votes. Immediately ahead of FSU and Wake, and several spots ahead of Klempson, whom we just, beat. Wake we catch at home in about a week, FSU did beat us in Tallahassee, barely, a few weeks back and we just put Klempson to bed.
12-zip at home does not suck either.
Though this one is on the road, @ NC.State where VT has been snakebite for a while. State is a bit down this year, some would even suggest that the Wolfpac is the hind dog in the A.C.C. race this season. Maybe, though I’ll believe a VT win vs. NC.State down in Raleigh when I see it.
State currently resides at 14-10 overall and 2-7 inside the A.C.C. The Wolfpac has dropped 5 of their last 7 games, the two wins being vs. Duke and NC-Central. This brings the Fourm-Guide into play for this one; more on that below. At this stage however, if NC.State entertains even a C.B.I. invite notion, State needs wins, and the Wolfpac needs them quickly and badly. If this schnide continues, State will be one of the very few A.C.C. Men’s hoops programs who gets to go on Spring Break early this year.
NC.State at a glance:
- 43rd in Blocks.
- 68th in Assists.
- 105th in Scoring Defense.
- 148th in Scoring Offense.
Stats don’t tell the whole story, which is oh so true. Though they are do cut some amount of story-telling teeth and are ignored at great peril. The NC.State stat overview is a curios one. Out of all 20 major Men’s team statistical categories that I track, the Wolfpac is the oddball outlier that is simultaneously neither epic, no suspect in any one thing. This paints a much middled picture of NC.State and the Wolfpac’s record is quite congruent in objective response to such. NC.State is neither a push-over, gimmie, easy win – just ask Duke. Nor are they the Fire and Ice indomitable attack of years past – just ask all 10 teams who have already beaten NC.State this year. In fact NC.State is per se only 8 up and 5 down at home this season, a far cry from VT checking in at 12-0. Making this game a winnable one and perhaps our best remaining chance for another A.C.C. rarefied road win this year. Yet this is indeed far from the lock pick of the week as this Wolfpac does still pack some bite.
The leader of the ‘pack is #23, one Mr. Tracy Smith a 6`8“ 248 lb. force to be reckoned with on the inside who leads the Wolfpac in scoring (18) and in rebounding (8). Tracy is likely the closest thing that NC.State has to an all-conference baller this season, and he has improved quite a bit since last year, to his credit. Perhaps even playing his way into a pro career in the Association while he’s at it; after Smith though, things drop off in no small way for NC.State. #31 6`9“ 227 lb. senior Power-Forward Dennis Horner is second in scoring with 12 per game and he does have some pretty decent range for a big-man. #10 Javier Gonzales the 5`10“ 175 lb. Point-Guard from Carolina, Puerto Rico is third in points with 10 per game, and first in assists with a tad over 4 per contest. Beyond that, it’s scoring via committee for the Wolfpac as 8 other ballers average between 1 and 8 points per game for NC.State; though only 4 of those 8 players warrant regular minutes no matter the score.
Pocket scouting report for NC.State:
#23 PF, Tracy Smith: much improved over last year, #1 in blocks and steals! 56% shooter, though his range is limited.
#31 F, Dennis Horner: senior team leader, utility do everything guy, some range. Gives you all he’s got.
#10 Pt.G, Javier Gonzales: know for making long range 3’s and bad decisions.
#15 G-F, Scott Wood: streaky and explosive scorer. Very deep range, excellent size for a t-freshman (6`7“), though very thin at a buck70 (170 lbs.)
#12 G, Farnold Degand: Iowa State transfer, has added right-mass, senior with good handles, who is a bit lame and may not play.
#24 2-G, Julis Mays: more of a shooter than he is true creator, leads A.C.C. in FT% at 90%.
#1 PF, Dick Howell: bulky 6`8“ 269 lb. PF has added over 50 lbs. in one year since H.S.! 2nd in rebounding, very good on offensive glass. Limited range.
#21 SF, C.J. Williams: versatility is his game. Something of an impoverished mans point-Forward.
#22 SF, Josh Davis: hometown Raleigh balled that stayed home, unlike Walls of UK. Gets consistent reserve minutes even for a t-freshman.
#14 C, Jordan Vandenberg: Aussie Euro looking C. 7` 238 lbs. nice shooter, not a banger.
“Always initiate, never retaliate.” Arnold “red” Auerbach.
That’s what Seth wants vs. NC.State folks. It is the fundamental difference between puncher and counter-puncher, proactive and reactive, suplex or reflex. Either philosophy can work, though when the other side dictates terms on end for years, there is a tacit O&M element of seceding control somewhere embedded in all of that. Sometimes you need to set yourself and pop the bully right in the mush; in boxing we call this earning your opponent’s respect. This does not mean forfeiting one’s identity, or an about-face as a preferred course of action goes. It does however mean getting off to a good start down in Raleigh (for a change). Stop this business of chasing NC.State, let the Wolfpac be the pursuer for a change. In other words, Seth wants us to pull a Super Bowl commercial sans the wardrobe malfunction and “…change outta the skirt Jason.” Let the hunter (the Wolfpac) become the hunted if you will.
This game’s Fourm-Guide is quite interesting, as we enjoy both OOC and Conference common opponent analysis. Prima facie the Fourm-Guide favors VT straight across. VT has beaten every single common opponent not named FSU; and NC.State has reciprocally been beaten by every single common opponent; again not named FSU. Recall both VT and NC.State fell to FSU and the Noles unusual Frontcourt towering size. Even so; one can make a quality case that VT played FSU better than State did even though both sides took the L for their troubles. This is the next best thing to the so-called one to one correlation in Stats, which is seldom seen when invoking the Fourm-Guide for instructional purpose. However, digging deeper reveals even more mental nuggets to digest.
First up, State did better in rebounding against all but one common head-to-head opponent. No real surprise there. Though VT was generally better both from the Floor and from beyond the arc (3-pointers) vs. mutual opponents; the real key however was found on defense. VT has had considerably more starch in their defensive collar compared to the Wolfpac. From lowly NC-Central all the way up to FSU –whom neither State nor VT could beat- the Hokie defense was noticeably better overall and in particular from 3-point range. Which is not to say nor suggest that State is a bad defensive team, they allow 65 per game on 41% shooting. That does place State in no less than the top 31st percentile for all of D-1 in each category. It’s just that VT is objectively better on defense on the balance. The Home/Away splits are pretty much linear; which was a bit unexpected to me, in that NC.State does not improve a whole lot when playing at home. What you see is what you get, and what you’ve got is a very middleocre D-1 hoops team. Not a bad one, not a gimmie, just a very pedestrian or vanilla street crosser in conference intersection terms. The Hokie Home/Away splits are a bit disconcerting, as the VT FG% defense allowed is unimproved by 6% out on the road as VT defensive effort or focus tends to drift a bit outside of our Cassell. Watch for that metric early on and chart how well NC.State shoots, anything in the mid-40’s as a percentage should alarm you.
5 of States 8 wins at home have come against teams that Tim Tebow’s mom might could beat in a game of horse. Georgia State, Elon, Winthrop, Holy Cross and pitiful NC-Central don’t do a whole lot for me. That said, I find myself semi leery of this road game in A.C.C. play where VT has had trouble trying to de-fang this Wolfpac crew for some time. A.C.C. road wins are tough to come by, you have right at a 25-30% chance of notching one over the course of the last few years.
Just like last Sunday night, I am left wondering who was that caricature of a halftime show and just how has a modest to barely good NC.State hoops team been such a thorn in VT’s paw for so long? More importantly could there be a mental thorn or a splinter in VT’s mind for this one? State is not the better basketball club, plain and simple, full stop. Inside the Cassell I’d almost be disappointed if VT did not win by at least double digits. Down on the road in Raleigh however and I’ll take a 1 point win right now and just call the whole things off.
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All the same, everything I am getting from my sources is good right now. Very confident VT team playing with some real live O&M swag’; some guys (think: MD and Hud’) finally getting a little R&R this week to help build them back up with an extra day off per our Saturday start vs. Klempson. The team has already left the building and is in transit for Raleigh as I type; taking any elemental traveling foibles out of play.
In a manner of speaking, this one is a Boston College redux in football, in reverse from about 3 years ago. Will quipped that we could not go on beating B.C. forever at that time; and he was right. NC.State can not go on beating VT forever in hoops and I expect that shows itself this Wednesday night. Though I do expect a few bumps in the road and a few scratch marks from tangling with a very erratic Wolfpac hoops squad before we escape their lair with a W. My only remaining question is will this be our last road W of A.C.C. play this year? To play on words from where I began this preview … seeing is indeed believing — and I fully believe that VT is about 1 full notch above NC.State, even on the road.
Virginia Tech=71, NC.State=67