#20 Clemson vs. #3 Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: 8pm Saturday nite, ESPN
Vegas line: VT is favored by 7.5 points
o/u=53.5
$-line: VT is a 2.65:1 favorite, Clemson is a 1:2.25 underdog
Swinney said on a teleconference Sunday night, noting that Boyd has been facing more pressure, and throwing more interceptions as a result. “You know, all of those things affect especially a young player.”
To paraphrase Saint Vince himself:
“timing isn’t the only thing, it’s everything.”
And right now the timing is all fouled up down in Clemson South Carolina. Their passing game is way outta sync, and their rushing attack is off-track. Only defense remains about the same since the last time we saw the #20 Clemson Tigers about 9 odd weeks ago.
In fact the last time we saw the Clemson Tigers they were in the midst of opening up 8-o and climbing all the way to a lofty 7th best national ranking. Oh how the times have changed as it is actually mightily Virginia Tech who has reeled off seven consecutive wins and rallied to ascend all the way to #3 in the USAToday Coach’s poll.
Whereas it is the Klempson Tigers who have fallen and can’t get up with only one single solitary win in their last 40 days of playing football. The Tigers have (mercifully) dropped to only 21st in the national polls and 20th in the latest B.C.S. Generous if you ask me for a team that has been beaten by 56 combined aggregate points in those very same most recent 40 days. Indeed, these appear to be nothing better than two Atlantic Cost ships passing in the nite. VT chugging right along upstream and up through the various national rankings and Clemson apparently setting sail for rock-bottom. As the cruise-ship punch line goes: “The good news is we are making great time, the bad news is we are lost.” Klempson has lost its way and desperately needs to locate it’s A-game vs. a Virginia Tech football team that appears to be peaking at just the right time.
That said, there is this little matter of 3-23 the ‘rong way, and there is the boxing axiom that still rings true once you give your O&M contacts a rinse, “Styles make fights.” And Klempson’s style is (still) just not that good of a match-up for Virginia Tech. Fundamentally a rather sophomoric looking team a and likewise still defensively wounded Virginia Tech that emptied an entire Coastal Division emotional and therefore physical clip right into the in-state heart of arch rival uva last week up in Charlottesville mind you.
Or in other words, this one is not the gimmie that everyone else will have you believe that it is. If/when Klempson relocates its offensive A-game, or should Klempson just so happen to get off to a fast start on Saturday nite down in Photo-Fu’s backyard of Charlotte North Carolina.
(EDITORS note: the Clemson X’s and O’s have not changed so much as it is the Jimmy’s and Joe’s that have suffered some attrition based turnover, if you need a refresher course in the Tigers raw offensive and defensive nuts and bolts here it is)
Clemson at a glance:
- The Tigers are 9th best in fewest penalties this year
- The Tigers are 17th in passing offense
- The Tigers are 72nd in red-zone offense
- The Tigers are 77th in red-zone defense
- The Tigers are 1o1st in Time of Possession
Clemson offensive update:
From what I am seeing concerning the Tigers recent offensive forum (more on that below), this recent 40 day downturn in their offensive
play was primarily due to offensive injuries, and then a subsequent forfeiture of offensive confidence right along with that. Things started to become unglued along the left-hand side of the Clemson offensive line as Brandon Thomas and Phillip Price have suffered leg and knee injuries respectively in recent weeks. This forced a reshuffling of the Tigers offensive-line’s playing rotation and left (pun intended) the zone-based blocking attack unglued and outta synch up-front. Note that the Tigers are allowing almost 4 sacks per game during this recent schnide and basically 3 turnovers per contest over that same time frame. Not quite the well-oiled offensive machine that we saw back on October 1st that was clicking on all cylinders –is it? To compound fracture all of that, star Clemson Rb ‘dre Ellington is still trying to shake off the effects of an ill left-foot, and has rushed for a truncated 64 yards on average since getting hurt vs. U.N.C. In particular his burst or explosion seems to be wanting as he only has one carry for more than 20 yards in the last 40 days. Now mix in the shoulder injury to all-world freshman Wr Sammy Watkins and witness the objective fact that his dynamic and downright game-changing receiving numbers have effectively been cut in half. No wonder the wonder-kid otherwise known as Tajh Boyd was seeing ghosts. This from the Clemson o-Coordinator his ownself: as offensive coordinator Chad Morris recently said his quarterback: “(Boyd) began to even feel pressure that wasn’t there versus the Gamecocks”, what analysts call phantom pressure or what audiologists or Jason and Grant of Ghost Hunter SyFy channel fame call: “hearing footsteps” . Maybe Tajh Boyd can star in PA3 (paranormal activity IV) next year? Or maybe the accelerated defensive pressure that he has been facing is (mostly) in his head and what’s in his head is telling him to “GET, OUT!”
Either way this is just not the same Klempson offense we faced before. They are down by 57 yards per game on the ground on average and behind by 45 yards per game through the airwaves as an arithmetic mean. So it’s not just one particular thing that is off or throwing this Tiger offense outta synch, it is the whole entire shebang that has gone from well balance dialed-in radar guided Iowa Class 16“ guns to Atlantic Division snap-n-pops of late. (current Clemson offensive letter-grade: the Tigers current form would rank them 42nd in total offense nation wide, or an extremely low B- thanks to the best Te prospect in all of D-1 who will get after J.Tyler from the word go)
Clemson defensive update:
What you see is what you get. That’s pretty much this Clemson defensive animal in a nutshell as these stop-unit Tigers have improved by
precisely 5 yards per game overall since we last saw them at the onset of October. The curious part to me is that the Clemson ground-fighters are actually nearly 20 full yards per game better and that it is the Tigers secondary play that has backed up just a little bit in the last 55 odd days since we went 3-23 belly-up against them. In fact these Tigers have gone from 4.5 yards per rush allowed to only 3.8 yards per carry permitted which would currently peg them right about 40th best in national terms. Not so soft as some would have you believe. By my count, Klempson enjoys the services of 2 future N.F.L.’ers upfront, two far-flung fringe Pros in their Linebacking corps and a likely low-level Pro at Fs. Or in other words, there is good talent here and there and yet that upper echelon level of talent is spotty, and if truth be told it thins a bit the further you move away from the Klempson defensive line-of-scrimmage. (orange ellipses) #98 Thompson at left-Dt is a tough match-up for Brooks and #40 Mr. Branch at right-De is a nightmare match-up for Lanier and an even worse match-up for the treeish Becton over on L.T.’s blindside. The key here is to pick your poison wisely, you don’t wanna roll L.T. right into Mr. Branch’s arms, you don’t wanna try to bulldoze the 6`2“ 318 lb. Mr. Thompson off the line-of-scrimmage. VT must attack away from those two and obey Sun Tzu’s tenant of: “If you seek to capture that which you attack, you seek to attack that which is not defended.”
This Clemson defense is not so great in the secondary, though how long can you pass-block against their dLine and typically single blitzing Linebacker or single blitzing Cb off the edge that has combined for 22 sacks, and a staggering 65 Qb pressures thus far this season. Or in other words, the longer you muck around with this Tiger stop-unit, the more you invite or formally bring their sporty raw athleticism into play. The sooner you hit them on quick hitters and medium to short passing that necessarily requires even less pocket time the better. This is not a game where O’Cain needs to be taking his 4-5 signature long-ball shots downfield. That could very easily amount to (another) 4-5 sacks allowed. This is a game where O’Cain must take what the Tigers give him and scheme to get people open underneath whereby L.T. will only need 1-2.5 seconds to fire one off while making quick, timely, and downright accurate pocket-decisions. Last time out Clemson forced L.T. to think more than anyone else has all year long by taking everything away underneath and daring L.T. to beat them with the medium to deep ball which brought their mega individual pass-rushing match-ups into full effect. To put it another way, Klempson was the only 2011 VT football opponent to card L.T. and make him show his age; which left us marooned on a rather r-sophomoric looking island indeed. Last time out L.T. had 8 carries for 12 yards, this time out he needs something in the vicinity of 55-70 yards rushing in order to beat Clemson; that, plus some very level-headed r-junior administration indeed. (current Clemson defensive letter-grade: a middle C+, not epic, not half-bad either)
Clemson special-teams update:
Part of the Clemson Atlantic Division fall from grace has been some very uneven special teams play. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro has been streaky all year long. By my count he has logged precisely 2 good and 2 not so good streaks thus far this year. Clemson is currently 95th in net punting nationwide as the pre-season weapon otherwise known as Dawson Zimmerman has not cracked a 38 yard net more than once in the last five weeks. Such leaves one wondering just how healthy his formerly injured knee is or is not. The Tigers punt-coverage team is no better since we last saw them, as the coverage numbers allowed have almost precisely doubled since October. The Tigers kickoff coverage or suicide team remains fairly stout however.
In terms of returns the Tigers are petty good when stud freshmen Sammy Watkins can field kicks, and not so dynamic without him. The Tigers have only returned 11 punts all year Clemson has allowed one punt and one kickoff to be returned for 6. The Tigers have blocked one kick during the 2011 regular season. (current Clemson special-teams letter-grade: a high D+, there is some talent here, though that talent is just not preforming like they should)
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Illation, conclusion(s), and prediction:
“Styles make fights.”
-Boxing axiom-
I said it above and I am saying it again … as those mere 3 words could (still) have a whole lot to say about this one folks.
Right now I peg this one as Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Manny Pacquaio part IV. Clearly after three hotly contested and flat-out epic fights, Juan Manuel Marquez’s style is all ‘rong for the seemingly superior Manny Pacquaio. That’s the intermediary Clemson finesse oriented passing game to the zone-drops of Bud Lite’s Mike and ‘backer alike. Marquez countered and bewildered Manny Pacquaio for 20-25 odd rounds outta their epic 36. Clemson and Tajh Boyd countered Bud Lite to the tune of a whopping 15.69 yards per completion last time out. Yah; how many of you remembered that metric? Me neither. And yet there it is, Clemson and Tajh Boyd made plays when they had to and they were not small-side plays either. One side will do that Saturday nite; and the side that ends up playing predictably uno-dimensional football and has to chase up on the scoreboard will be the side that does get beat.
Revanchist🙁n)
1. The act of retaliating; revenge.
2. A usually political policy, as of a nation or an ethnic group, intended to regain lost territory or standing.
Clearly the team that is holding the revenge card and waiting to play it is none other than Vah.Tech. In years to come when we look back on a potential 13-1 2011 Virginia Tech football season … two things will stand out. The fact that 13-1 was the second greatest VT football season of all-time when most -self included- thought VT was 1-2 years away? Check. The Clemson Tigers, the one game sore thumb that stands out no matter what? Check. Would you have taken 13-1 and an O.B. championship 125 odd days ago and called it square? Check. Well, mostly “check”. As that “1” would sure stand out, if/when we do even the yearly mark at 1 up and 1 down vs. Clemson. However, if the Clemson style is indeed all ‘rong for seemingly superior Virginia Tech…
“Together we stand, together we fall, together we’re winners … and winners take all.”
-Author unknown-
X-factors: (the little things mean a lot)
Right now I’d say that the 8-o opening October version of Klempson beats beloved Vah.Tech about 50-55% of the time. However, this early December version of Klempson does not exactly have their act 100% together. They are more than a little ways south of 100% healthy wise on offense, and subsequently a decent amount south of 100% efficiency wise when they have the ball.
- At this stage there is a lot more tape to break and film to study out there on Klemspon than there was when they could and did pocket some plays, looks, and sets just for mighty VT. Big difference between breaking tapes on 4 games compared to all 12.
- Klempson may not be a one-trick pony, as they do have some rushing and passing play-makers alike; however, and all that to say … they are a one pace pony. Some are sprinters, some are stalkers, some born and bred for distance up at the Belmont Stakes. Clemson likes a medium-high tempo, something analogous to the Kentucky Derb. Not a slow long-distance slugging match kinda grinding one, and not a frenetic turbo based one fueled by the need to chase on the scoreboard. IF VT can just jump up by double-digits early-on (say 10-14) and gain control of the tempo, and suddenly force Klempson to play at an uncomfortable pace, VT will have gone a long way towards adding up 3-4 little things into 1-2 medium things, and suddenly Hokie scoreboard driven control of game and consequently the tempo or pace of play itself is a big deal indeed.
- Again the little things mean a lot … in film-study of Spurrier vs. Dabo I noticed that a few times the ole ball coach just out schemed the Tigers from time-to-time. No real shame in that vs. an offensive hall of fame caliber mind –(blank) happens. However, I also noticed that Clemson tackling was nothing short of army. Reaching, grabbing, “grab, grab, grabbing!” as Lombardi once put it. Or in other words, the Tiger fundamentals ain’t so fundamentals after having dropped 3 of their last 4; and as Magic Johnson once taught us all: “You can’t have fun without the fundamentals.”
- Even, steady, level … what are three words that describe Dabo Swinney? Or would that be three words that describe hall of famer in waiting one Frank Beamer? Yup, bingo that, as you can just see the pressure tightening like a noose knot around the Tigers collective neck(s) and well all knows what happens after that: cough-cough, choke-choke.
This one is for all the Coastal marbles, for the whole Atlantic enchilada, even though I have this one closer for longer than most everyone else does, this is a game of Atlantic Coast winner take all. Virginia Tech stands together, and together Virginia Tech will be the revancistic winners; though this one will be closer for longer than most will like.
Virginia Tech=33, Clemson=22.
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
bourbonstreet**
