#4 Virginia Tech @ #24 virginia:
TV coverage: ESPN or ABC
Kick-off: 3:30pm
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore, Lisa Salters
Vegas line: VT is favored by 5 points
o/u=45.5 points
$-Line: VT is a 2:1 favorite, france is a 1.7:1 underdog
“We (VT) run this State!”
-senior Safety Eddie Whitley–
Damnation!
This highly one-sided Commonwealth Cup Coastal Division football rivalry is alive and well after all and this hoos who intra-state sporting contest finally means something once again.
hoo’ed thunk it?
After seven straight years of VT going B.O.H.I.C.A. on uva, uva is finally good again.
Well, their pretty good.
Well, maybe they’re kinda good.
Unless of course the hoos do upset favored Virginia Tech this weekend up in Charlottesville and advance to the A.c.c. title game.
All jokes aside … beating #4 ranked VT would certify that that they have had a good year indeed.
Top-10:
- One. Meaning: VT is the only team outta all 120 D-1 football programs to have won 10 (or more) games for eight straight years! (BONUS: uva has beaten VT precisely 1 time in the last 12 years!)
- Twenty. As in Frank Beamer the player only played uva once and beat them 24-7 way back in 1966.
- 48.3. As in VT has only allowed 48.3% of opposing passes to be completed this year. First-best in the whole A.c.c.
- Fourth. L.T. has already amassed 180 pass completions; good for the 4th best all-time for a VT single season mark. (BONUS: VT is first-best with 224 INT’s since the year 2000 for all of D-1 football)
- Five. By the time this game kick-off on Saturday, VT will have enjoyed an astonishing 2,555 consecutive days of possession of the Commonwealth Cup! (BONUS: As the all-time Commonwealth series mark stands at 50-37-5, favor of Tech)
- Six. As in VT is 26-2 in the month of November since 2004. (BONUS: Bud Lite has endured a staggering 16 different defensive starters already this season!)
- Seven. My home-boy David Wilson has 7 fumbles all by himself and VT has a whopping 2o fumbles on the year!
- Eight. Meaning: uva has out-scored their opponents in no small way in the fist-quarter of play by a stunning 68-10 margin all year.
- Lynchburg. 9 letters that spell out the spillover hometown starting Qb high school rivals otherwise known as Logan Thomas and Mike Rocco; both of whom hail from Lynchburg Virginia.
- One hundred. As in Blake DeChristopher already has an even 100 knock-down blocks during his senior campaign and has a shot to break the all-time VT mark.
virginia offense: Power-I or Spread (8 starters return)
Rocco, no, not the guy that Rodney Dangerfield sic’s on the Judge at the end of Caddyshack; the other Lynchburg VA Qb who is a sizzling 7:1 hot as can be as a passing ratio goes in his most recent 16 quarters of play. Along with a 61% completion percentage and what amounts to a nearly all-conference looking 151.77 Qb rating over that very same period of scrimmaging! Geez! Wanna add that this kid has a pretty thick set of whiskers as I saw him take a few good shots and deal with some real live pocket pressure in breaking film. He was unflinching and never batted an eye as best I could detect. So this ain’t exactly your mommas (or yesteryear’s) soft-touch looking french football team. I had no idea that this kid was this good either … and is this the greatest A.c.c. sophomore Qb class of all-time or what?
Saw more Jumbo or 2-Te balanced-line work outta hooVa than I expected on film as le` offensive coordinator Bill Lazar is clearly looking to impose his physical will up-front and right at the immediate point of attack, as something of school-yard bully goes in terms of lunch-money acquisition inside the Ot-box. Saw just a bit more pulling and trapping and otherwise old-fashioned drive blocking outta a very experienced hooVa oLine that is none to shy about simply lining up and going helmet-to-helmet and just letting the better man (blocking scheme pun-intended) win. After that uva will mix in 4-5 rushing toss plays per contest, though the rest are inside or hugging the Ot-box itself. This should concern you if your favorite O&M beer just so happens to be Bud Lite –which is indeed rather depleted right up the gut and in the middle. Ergo, go ahead and expect a lot of this Power-I jumbo look on Saturday as London is calling and he will very much be inclined to attempt to punch the VT middle defense right in the mouth and see who lives to tell the tale.
hooVa will mix in some Spread 3 and 4 Wideout sets to try to keep your defense honest via a real live change of pace. Rocco is much better as a quick West-Coast kinda passer than I expected. He makes heady decisions and he gets read of the ball promptly enough. He can move in the pocket, though he is simply not a pure dual-threat Qb much less a running Qb that would seem to prototypically fit the Spread based system itself. Or in other words, there is no real need to waste an O&M defender spying on Rocco in this one folks. Bud Lite can deploy 3-5 guys in rushing the passer and the remaining guys in coverage with nobody trapped in a WWI esque` no-mans-land on Saturday.
#33 Perry “superman” Jones has 170 carries, 41 pass receptions and he has completed one pass on the year as well. That’s not bad work if
you can get it outta a junior year 5`8“ 185 lb. Tb who brings something of an impoverished mans Shyrone Stith vibe to his game. Jones is good, and he and 5`8“ 195 lb. freshman Mr. Kevin Parks of 644 rushing fame and the even bigger Mr. Clifton Richardson a fellow freshman at 6` 215 lb. and 328 yards worth of rushing combine to give uva 1,842 yards on the ground so far this year. That’s downright solid efforting and you have to suspect that both Parks and Richardson will only get better and better as we get closer to 2014 and their senior seasons. The rushing rotation between them has been split by about a 2:2:1 ratio as carries go respectively, ergo VT will very much get hit by nothing short of 6 fresh legs for the full 60 minute duration on Saturday. Saw more rushing between the Ot’s than I expected from uva; and they do enjoy the services of at least 2 fring Pro’s up-front –Mr. Moses at right-Ot and Mr. Pasztor at right-G. Both guys are N.F.L. ready right now as Sunday metrics go and both will present very testy one-on-one match-ups for their O&M counterparts all afternoon long up in Charlottesville. Speed rushing can mess around with the uva oLine and that was about all that I saw that could mess around with the uva oLine. Thus making the french oLine no less than the 3rd best oLine in the entire A.c.c right about now. uva will do a lotta medium to short passing work with a detectable sideline preference; with a lateral (or horizontal) stretch designed to scheme people open and work for Y.A.C. (yards after the catch); and a very healthy amount –the most we will see all year in fact- of screening work to the uva Rb’s and the occasional home-run throw to the same. Some of this will be off of play-action which only gets better and better as the french ground assault gains more rushing yards. The 1960’s Daryle Lamonica vertical passing Oaktown Raiders this simply ain’t, and yet Rocco looked extremely comfortable and downright pensive as his medium range to screen-pass decision making went. That said, this is the best downfield blocking Wr’ing corps I’ve seen on film in the A.c.c. this year. The uva Wideouts will flat get after you when they turn and pealback to block.
Overall, this is a hooVa offense that runs just a touch better than it passes, though it passes better than average and much better than average of late. In breaking film on them I found myself wondering why they use a split on offense as the uva Power-I to Spread sets go? It’s not quite a french identity crisis, and neither is uva bad in the spread look. They do not however have a purified game-changer as the spread goes, like say some kid named David Wilson at Virginia Tech. They do have at least 4 road graders upfront and surely have 3 Rb’s who in no way, shape, or form were contact shy in the least. Such has me wondering … why would you even bother with the Spread when you are borderline damn good in the Power-I in the Charmin squeezeably soft defensive conference otherwise known as the A.c.c.? If Coach Lazar mucks around with the Spread vs. a very fast Bud Lite stop unit he is only cutting his own throat. If he settles in with his Power-I, demonstrates patience with the same, VT may die a death of a thousands cuts. It won’t be that uva knocks VT out in the first round, although the french oLine could conceivably win a late round war of attrition or at least get a favorable home-town split-decision on the judges scorecard. If uva sticks to the Power-I, this is not that good of a match-up, if uva mixes it up and gets too cute with the Spread, Bud Lite will eventually do just enough via in-game adjustments to make them tab out. (overall french offensive letter-grade: a categorical solid flat B, which could be higher with Rocco’s continued development or more Power-I)
virginia defense: 4-3 and some 3-4 (10 starters back)
Saw some interesting things from the hooVa defense on film and not all of them had to do with football diretly. In very broad-brush generic terms, what I saw was a lotta well-coached C+
to B- kinda players with one and sometimes two guy north of a B- level sprinkled in here and there per layer. The kicker is that I saw no bona fide A caliber ballers on film. Now, be real clear on this, I did not see any true flaw here per se. I saw three semi good to flat out good layers along the french maginot line. It’s just that I did not see an epic layer that I would rank ahead or for that matter behind the other two. The uva dLine, is pretty good and it is pretty big (with nobody south of 275 lbs.) and borderline very physical. The uva second layer or Linebackers are almost good and much quicker laterally than in years past. The uva secondary is virtually good, even if it is a bit spottier on talent and yet it plays very well together as this is one well schooled hind-4.
Get the picture? This is a pretty good hoo stop-unit overall. It ain’t great and it is also well above average. There is no stalwart layer that you must avoid any more than there is no glaring weakness that invites attack. This is a hooVa defense upon which you must simply play your game and play to your strengths and eventually inflict your will. This hooVa defense is all about you … not the other way around. Now, and all that said, this 2011 french defense is: tougher, faster, and MUCH much more in your face than in years past. The VT offense prolly should have had the scout-team defense talk total S to it all week long to simulate the lethal verbal diarrhea I saw spewing outta le` mouths on film. They will nudge, bump, push and shove you after a play and as Arnold “red” Auerbach taught all of us in the 50’s and 60’s … “always initiate, never retaliate.” Why? Because the ref’s tend to flag what happens second, first. Make no mistake about it folks; these hoos are feeling it, and the VT offense is about to feel both their verbal and physical wrath, before, during and after the play.
The french defense showed a greater reliance upon speed everywhere I looked. Their Cb’s played more off-man than I can recall in previous years, they played their second-layer (Lb’s) backed up by an extra yard to yard and a half at times (watch for the Iowa 4-3 Eagle look here as well), they had Safeties 10-12 off the line-of-scrimmage in a shell-2 with an occasional Tampa-1 defending their side of the turf, with an overall umbrella secondary look (watch for the deep Fs run-blitz – which creates a wonderful passing opp’ for L.T.). This secondary has lottsa man on the edges and hook zones in the middle of the field.
To put it on its lowest level, they really reminded me of B.C. defending Sean Glennon and the signature umbrella 4-3 look of the Flying-Eagles that tires to keep everything in front of it and just make good sound fundamental plays downfield. With one exception, although this is not a great pass rushing defense by trade, London will deal (i.e. blitz) a Linebacker or Ss on occasion in run-support. Curiously enough, the uva second-layer (i.e. Linebackers) seemed to key the same thing in 2 outta 3 or sporadically in 3 outta 3 terms straight across shoulder-to-shoulder-to-shoulder. That does give you a pretty fair to middling chance to combat the run. Now mix in a downright underrated hoo front-7 and suddenly you have the 32nd best defense in terms of Tackles for a Loss (TFL) in the nation. All this conspires to tell me that uva will force VT and L.T.’s hand via creating more Lo.FM’s (Longfield Management©) situations than we are accustomed to seeing. Go ahead and start fretting about a few extra 3-n-outs. That will happen a bit, though I am hopeful that Wilson and the VT inside-zone and the VT outside-zone will time a few of these run-blitzes or run keying hoo Linebackers just right and be off to the races. Ditto L.T. once he busts through the first 3-5 yards that is bounded by the deepest hoo Linebacker. The key to the game could very well be found in this very match-up, the hooVa hardcore vertically oriented run-support vs. the VT senior heavy oLine. I saw a whole lotta fast-forward play outta the hoo stop-troops. They are not shy on hard charging up the field in north-n-south terms. Just like in hoops, when someone comes flying right on up at you, pick your poison left or right and do anything and everything that you can to get by them and break contain, which forces them to turnaround, stop and re-pursue. Accordingly, it sure looked to me like there will be early down non-traditional opportunities to pass when most would say that VT probably should run to take advantage of so much newfound uva run-support aggression. uva plays in a hurry as run support goes, however, some O&M play-action could do some real live damage to Drager or to Wilson just behind the area vacated by the run-keying french Linebackers or Ss. Likewise the opportunity for some quick-hitting counter looks to Wilson off a jab-step of false open left and then a toss jet-sweep to the right. See if those hard-chagrining uva Linebackers can change direction and beat my boy to the corner where Drager and Lanier in particular are excellent seal-blockers on the edge. Ditto hitting uva with a true reverse (not a pitch to a trailing Coale as a pseudo-Wingback) or anything to take advantage of their aggressive over pursuit on defense as virginia will indeed swarm to the ball. Finally, look for Frank and the VT offensive staff to work the Refs in an attempt to solicit some early whistles regarding the suddenly highly loquacious hooVa defense in this one. If there is an edge to be had here, Frank will hold such over the second-year uva field-general otherwise known as Mike London vis-à-vis most Official interactions. (overall uva defensive letter-grade: lowest possible B+, this is a good, solid and reliable stop-unit that is noticeably above average and yet a few bricks shy of a load)
virginia special-teams: (both specialists return)
Jimmy Howell is a very middle of the road or pedestrian looking Punter for uva. He ain’t great and he ain’t bad either. He is however a massive
small-forward sized 6`6“ 240 lb. punter with massive game experience as a four year starter and as his 234 career punts clearly demonstrates. He is also one other thing, just a tad slow to get his punts off at times and he has had one snuffed out already this season. Finally, Howell is also a former High School Qb and he has already faked two punts at uva –one of which went for a touchdown. The tea leaves I read earlier this week seemed to hint that the founder of Beamerball his ownself had seen something on film regarding the traditional or rugby style punts from Howell. So keep both Eye’s firmly riveted on your TV screen or on the Scott Stadium field itself when uva goes to punt; as I can already sense the tremors in the Beamerball force. Right now uva is 88th in net punting and 71st in punt coverage which includes 1 TD allowed this year. On kick-off coverage the hoos check in at cost-cutter vanilla 59th best. uva is 85th in punt-returns and 65th in kick-off returns; the hoos have one return combined in excess of 29 yards which does not strike me as overly broken-field ominous or threatening
As field-goal kicking goes senior place-Kicker Robert Randolph is perfect on extra-points and 71% on his F.G.A.’s thus far this campaign. Double-R started out the year well enough, nailing 10 of his first 11 kicks, though he fell off his high-horse for three games mid-season. That said, he has closed by making 4 of his last 5 kicks, and he does have range out to about 48 yards with zero kicks blocked this season.
VT had better I.D. where one #94 Matt Conrath is on each and every F.G.A. or P.A.T., as the towering 6`8“ starting Dt has already blocked 3 kicks this season (uva: has 4 in total) giving him 5 in overall for his hooVa career. Matt Conrath is a game changer on special teams and should he alter the outcome of this contest he might just become a season changer for both teams. (overall uva special-teams grade: lowest possible C-, beyond the towering Conrath, there is just nothing special to see here)
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Illation, conclusion(s), and OPT digits:
For seven consecutive years virginia has practiced football outcome atheism. Last year then went 4-8 and converted to gridiron agnosticism, this year they are a smart looking 8-3 and they have found Religion.
hoo Head Coach Mike London (who does know defense) might just be the A.c.c. coach of the year here in a couple of more weeks; as france has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround from 5 wins, 3 wins and then 4 wins in the last three seasons respectively. Even in the world of open-relationships, eight bedpost notches already carved up in Charlottesville this season is a 200% increase in pitching instead of catching as uva football goes. The hoos do deserve merit, they do deserve credit, and they have improved –simple as that.
Whether or not they are good enough to upset Virginia Tech is another matter entirely and that matter will play itself out in front of 61,500 of the toughest Commonwealth tix to come by this side of 2007.
That said, I can only speak for myself … and the countless others I’ve spoken to when I say to you that…
- this one is gonna get raw,
- this one is gonna get gully,
- this one is gonna explode,
…all fingers point to that.
Seven years worth of being kicked in the gut leaves a mark last time I checked. So to some extent I can see why the hoo-fans feel like they’ve just hung the moon. However, and presuming the Moon is actually real, the last time I checked the Moon was hung a long time ago and it has been many a Moon since anything french managed to walk the talk.
That brings me full circle to the newfangled full-Monty approach of the anti-Groh himself, that of Coach Mike London and his downright mouthy, woofin’ and smack running football team that talks so much S I hear they are in line to be the next full-time guest-host on The View.
It may be a year or so before the A.c.c. officiating crews cycle through the prerequisite 2-3 times in terms of calling a uva football game before they get sick and tired of all of that verbal bait-n-switch head-game nonsense that uva is now pulling. Which is better than what uva is typically known for pulling if you catch my drift; nevertheless, this new ‘tude that uva has copped, has indeed given uva a new lease on pigskin life, no matter how swinish their collective sporting language is indeed. The uva backers will have you believe that this is really only code for enthusiasm, and I will have you know that this clinical sports-psych kinda makeover can work short-term wonders indeed. Don’t believe me, just ask the fact that uva is precisely 60 minutes of winning football away from playing for the A.c.c. championship after logging a whopping 2 A.c.c. football championships since 1953. That’s 2 Atlantic Coast football titles in 58 years folks; whereas VT has only won 4 A.c.c. football championships in 7 years … you do the maths.
Now, and all of that being said, VT must avoid being suckered into a game of “Pete” and “repeat” or post-play lose your head retaliation at all costs. If VT engages in a verbal tête-à-tête with these silly french, the streets of paris will flow with wine, brie and the final cases of Marquis horded Zima when this one is over and the O&M occupation comes to an end. If VT remains mentally focused, and lets their A-game do the walking after the hoos start up talking; I am quite confident that hooVa can not (yet) take VT’s best shot bang on the chin. uva is mo’ better –to be sure- although uva is not quite so chinny enough for that in only their second year of pigskin renaissance. They are heading in the right direction –pun intended- and yet they are still the slappy little house of Lannisters to mighty Virginia Tech’s house of Stark in the Commonwealth game of thrones.
Closer:
“I’m an eternal optimist, it’s really fun to watch the maturity of the players that are playing. It only makes you better as you feel more confidence towards your abilities and you start to develop the idea that you think you can win.”
-uva Head Coach Mike London-
See, that’s it in its entirety right ^there^ folks.
That’s precisely why hooVa is dangerous once again.
In the past 7 years I’ve seen precisely two hooVa football teams that at least played a pretty damn hard football game. The V.Hall at Qb one in 2008 and the Chris Long senior season one the year before in 2007. Both were inspired by close or semi-close football games respectively that only fueled their effort-based fire all the more. However, neither french football squad struck me as one that looked like it felt it would win. Both had elements of a life long chaser, the Cal Naughton, Jr. to the Ricky Bobby if you will.
This year’s hoo football club strikes me as much more of a frontrunner, even if this is their rookie year running at the brickyard. From what I am getting, they genuinely feel like they can (finally) win one in the extremely one-sided Commonwealth Cup series and that for the first time, in a long time, VT itself is finally within striking distance.
Confidence, mettle, pluck, call it what you will, the hoos will have you call it spunk, though that’s another matter for another website to cover.
“Confidence matters.” Sounds like a t-shirt or the next Nike marketing logo, don’t it? Though confidence could very well be what’s the matter with this one if the hoos should sneak one on VT and finally be in the lead when the fourth quarter scoreboard reads: 0:00, for a change.
Don’t believe me?
Watch next time the dood with the double-helix stud D.N.A. walks up to the hawt chick, trips on his way, stutters, sputters, and physically shudders his way through asking her out and then watch as she shoots him down and drops a big fat “no” bomb right down the pike, just sure as God made sunshine and puppy-dogs. ”Crash and burn Mav’.” It can happen to the best of ‘em and it can happen on Saturday up at Charlottesville Virginia. Though will it happen? That is what you really wanna know.
OPT digits:
After three days of film study, I have come to two differing yet overlapping conclusions and likewise potential outcomes.
- VT’s A-game: uva can not overcome this, no matter how jacked up the hoos are and no matter how confident they may be. In breaking tape it finally occurred to me that uva simply can not match VT’s star-power in terms of the competing Top-22 ballers (i.e. offensive + defensive starters) when taken as an aggregate. Is uva better? “Yes.” Do we deny this? “No.” However, is uva good enough to stand toe-to-toe and slug with VT while fighting inside the proverbial phone-booth for 12 full championship rounds? No; or at best, not just yet.
- VT’s B-game (or less): is uva now within striking distance of such for only the second time in seven odd years? “Yes”. Do we deny that one? “No.” However, should VT have a ugly special teams day, should VT wet the Turnover Margin bed, should L.T. have his second sophomoric game of the season … would a 100% locked, cocked and ready to rock uva very possibly pull the upset of VT at home? You bettcha, although this would tell me that some of the brighter VT stars suddenly and unexpectedly dimmed and or flickered out, or that VT was actually the team that upset VT in the final analysis.
Now, observe that both scenarios paint the picture that uva will be 100% amped-up and sky-high to play VT on Saturday at 3:30pm. Or in other words, this Commonwealth Cup football game is really has much more to do with VT and a good deal less to do with uva.
Right now I am gonna side with O&M star power to outshine uva in the end. However not before uva leads and forces VT into a 1,000 ab-roller gut-check of a game that I sincerely expect to be rowdy, nasty, violent, and then I expect it to get worse.
techsideline.com=19, thesabre.com=15
Happpy Thanksgiving 2011 all!!!
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street
