#69 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #59 R.P.I. UNC:
TV coverage: 7:45pm FOXSportsNet
Vegas Line: VT+8, O/U=146.5
My home-slice MD-2o-2o is officially listed as Day-to-Day. As Charlie Stiner used to say: “…aren’t we all.”
Or…”If not for bad luck we/VT-hoops, would have no luck at all.”
Is there a harder luck bunch than us in A.C.C. hoops folks? How would you deal with this MD injury? I posted a Pay thread on when you sit a hurt player, or when you ask them to suck it up. It’s not an easy question and I have a TSL sitzkrieg downtime write-up on it already drafted for late this Spring. That said the schedule if of some use here. If MD sits for UNC he gets 11 days off. If he sits for Miami he effectively gets 2 weeks off. If he sits for FSU-East he could go ahead and sit for Directional NC, we beat them with or without MD. That would sit MD down up until B.C. or the 01.23 calender date; AKA giving him 3 weeks off. Or in other words, there sure is a lotta hoops squeezed into the opening of A.C.C. play compared to our long OPEN stretches to begin the year.
Happy birthday to Chris “Rebel Yell” Coleman!!!
No MD-2o-2o would make any UNC prediction a bit more obvious; per such, I’ll describe UNC the animal first, then accees our chances with and without Malcolm Delaney.
UNC at a glance:
- 11th in Blocked Shots
- 8th in Rebounding Margin
- 7th in Scoring Offense
- 3rd in Fouls. (i.e. do not expect a single favorable VT “whistle”)
This is a pretty dang good UNC hoops team, even at 11-4 and smarting from a recent upset to the College of Charleston last Monday night out on the road. Four L’s from UNC this early is unusual; as there have been entire T.Heel seasons when UNC did not collect 4 L’s. Three of those four have been to name D-1 hoops factories. Getting beat by Texas, Kentucky and the ‘Quse is nothing to sneeze at in out-of-conference (OOC) terms; even as we find ourselves smack dab in the midst of cold and flu season.
Leading the way for the T.Heels is #21, 6`8“ 249 lb. senior Small-Forward one Deon Thompson. Deon is netting 16 and grabbing 7 boards per game; which is nearly a 33% improvement in scoring thanks to improved conditioning which will push Deon over the fringe and into an NBA career if he’s not careful. #32, 6`11“ 219 lb. Ed Davis, a somewhat lean combo-Forward, that antes up 15 himself and leads UNC in rebounding with 10. Davis is also a Richmond, VA native which makes him one helluva a Commonwealth escapee. UNC has numerous other likely Pros home or abroad on this 2010 hoops team. Therefore, is it entirely my thesis of thought; that post so much championship personnel turnover; given time and seasoning; this will round into a quality UNC team by the time March Madness strikes all of us in the third month of 2010. Primarily due to having a whole lot of frontcourt talent; though the T.Heel backcourt is the lesser half, to be sure — it’s not all that shabby all told. Check it out.
UNC pocket scouting report:
# 32 SF, Deon Thompson: baby-faced senior has lost weight and found a NBA game.
#32 PF Ed Davis: Considered a lotto pick; 63% from the floor and 3 blocks says so!
#1 G/F, Marcus Ginyad: 5th year VAHS Sr. foot ills, honor society, student President of UNC!
#44 PF, Ty Zeller: 7` 220 lb. finesse-skillful big man, 10 points in only 16 minutes!
#11 Pt.G, Larry Drew II: legacy NBA baller, true-1, 6 dimes, 44% on 3’s, turnover prone.
#13 F/G, Will Graves: senior, former bench warmer, now contributing 8 & 4 as a sub.
#5 Pt.G, Dexter Strickland: no NBA relation (Mark), lean 160 lbs., knee-surgery, true-point.
#31 F, John Henson: 6`10“, 160 lbs! VHT Fr., extremely thin, Lindy’s #1 ACC NBA prospect!
#43 F, Travis Wear: ‘nother McDonalds AA, 6`10“ twin, #1 UNC FT shooter (82%).
#34 F, David Wear: Twin, basically see ^above^.
What recurrent theme did you ferret out in my pocket scouting guide to UNC? How about t, a, l, l? As in big, as in vertical, as in frontcourt rich; as it sure looks to me like Roy Williams has 4-5 Pros upfront on his hands right now. This is a very deep team in the paint folks. You can see this in the fact that UNC is 3rd in Offensive Rebounds in all of D-1 and 8th in Rebounding Margin overall. Hence UNC shoots 49% on the year (17th best) as they get a whole lotta points in the key thanks to their (rising) star studded frontcourt.
The UNC backcourt however is not as highly thought of; though I for one am not so low on them. They do enjoy the services of not one but two true Point Guards. Not bad when most teams do not even have one true Pt.Guard on their Roster these days. Drew II and Strickland are solid; though not great. The interesting thing is that Roy has gone big and I do mean BIG! UNC is now basically fielding the obverse of the so-called 3 or 4-Guard offense that we typically see smaller schools resort to out of necessity. In fact one could gloss this as being the first ever 4-Forward offense. Drew II goes 6`2“, Strickland stands 6`3“, after that no other T.Heel stands south of 6`9“ in the real meat of the T.Heels playing rotation. To take that a step further, UNC deploys no less than 6 ballers in its Top-10 that line-up at 6’9“ or better; which is code for the Hokie Frontcourt MUST stay outta foul-trouble down on Chapel Hill.
The fact that UNC pretty much only plays two true G’s shows itself in the metric know as
Turnovers; where UNC checks in at 284th with nearly 17 Turnovers per game. That only magnifies the potential loss of Malcolm Delaney. My sources say he has indeed improved; though it is my analysis that he will not play. That is how I am going to forecast this game, though I might have picked UNC on their homecourt anywho. (UPDATE: vvvbelowvvv)
“He threatens many, that hath injured one.” -Ben Johnson, English poet-
Yah; pretty much, and our injured one is a big one. Now dig this … I talked to Chris a few days ago and told him I was calling my shot and that we would at least split with UNC this year. “barring major injuries” was my direct caveat. Low and behold; we have the one single major injury on our hands that we simply could so not afford to have happen. To compound fracture matters all the more; not playing with Malcolm Delaney negates our one significant match-up advantage. i.e. our backcourt is better than UNC’s with MD-2o-2o locked and loaded for bear. That said, I just do not like this frontcourt match-up and I am expecting a mid-Atlantic blizzard of unfavorable calls to go against us; as we know the A.C.C. refs have no love loss for Jeff Allen.
However … reports outta UNC suggest that #1 Ginyard is Out, and that Thompson, Watts, McDonald and Graves are all hobbled on bad ankles. That’s 38 points and 18 board either hurting or OUT for UNC. Clearly that does not excruciate our chances; and one might even speculate that that does not make MD-2o-2o’s ankle feel any worse too boot. Per such, we now have reports that MD may play some test minutes to see how his ankle responds. Though Green will start at our version of the Point. Recall my PAY-MB thread on when to play a hurting baller. Looks like we have an answer to part a (opponent); think MD plays this weekend if this were little ole UNC-Central? Think again. Finally do recognize on the fact that it is his left-ankle that is sprained! i.e. his lay-up ankle as right-handed shooters typically leave the floor last off of their left-ankle nearly 95% of the time. MD shoots with his right hand, last time I checked. MD accounts for about 30% of our offense, that’s quite a bit for a team that only nets 68 points outside of the Cassell. Though recent 5-game trends do favor us/VT in no small way. Our defensive FG% allowed is 7% better than UNC’s, and we are 5% better on offense from the floor.
So as you can see the prediction waters are now mired in a muddy rip-tide of attrition that even Jaws XVIXIVX or whatever, can not circumvent. UNC has more hurts; though one could conclude that they also have more depth. VT has less hurts (1 effectively) though one could conclude that our injury has lamed our best player (MD). Not sure I’d risk any further injury here folks. Would you?
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All of that to say, when in doubt; always side with the home team that has more depth. UNC could still get us into foul trouble on the Inside and this is game would be over; even if my boy MD-2o-2o was 100%. I’ll call for UNC to get every single whistle known to man, Allen to foul out, and the T.Heels gain a split vs. the Hokies, because we are gonna beat them inside the Cassell — if we are healthy.
Virginia Tech=68, UNC=76
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street