Well, we had Duke right where we wanted them with their 4th leading scorer hurt and Duke
playing very user-friendly defense of late; we got back in the game with three of our top-8 ballers out or hurt and tied things up. But in the end we suffered our 8th ugly and bad-tasting close game L on the year. That’s not good.
But now we have a chance at redemption and UNC might just be looking ahead to their home date with Duke a little bit.
For my TSL.com $0.03 … we do need this win to get into the NC2A’s; or a major ACC big-name win (UNC or Duke) in the ACC Tourney to punch our March Madness ticket. If we do not secure such, we will be close but no Field of 64 cigar. But can we beat the team that is the Vegas odds on favorite (at 2.9 to 1) to win it all???
(24-3) #3 R.P.I. North Carolina @ (17-11) #59 R.P.I Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: 7pm ESPN
Vegas line: VT+9.5
UNC at a Glance:
- #1. As in the T.Heels are first best out of all 330 D-1 teams in Offensive Rebounding; and 11th in FG%. UNC is also 10th best in FT%.
- 293rd. As in UNC is 293rd in Points Allowed per game. But this vital is something of a function of tempo; as the T.Heels are actually 64th in FG% Allowed.
- 3rd. UNC is 3rd in Assists per game and truly stellar in their backcourt play … check it out … 8th in Assists:Turnover ratio, 26th in Steals and 25th in Turnover Margin.
- 4 of our last 5 games vs. UNC have been dogfights or Hokie wins. Among those 4 would be: (a 2 point L in the ACC Tourney semi finals last year; a 6 point upset win vs. #1 UNC; a 1 point win vs. #4 UNC; a 3 point L to UNC)
- UNC played 15 people vs. Gah.Tech last time out!
- 16 ballers but zero C’s! UNC has zero true Center’s listed on their entire roster!
- 7th. As in UNC is 7th in Rebounding Margin.
- Power-Forward William Graves is out for the year with Disciplinary troubles, and UNC’s top-defender Marcus Ginyard of Alexandria Virginia is out for the season with a stress-fracture of his left foot.
As you can see, UNC is ranked #2 with good reason(s). This is a very potent hoops team and I have to favor them to win it all as UNC is just inside my six out of seven times dual winning Big-Dance qualifiers of being 64th best (or better) in Rebounding Margin and in Defensive FG% allowed. Neither of which can go cold in the always uneven but nonpareil exciting format of one and done come March Madness.
Leading the way is the hard-working Mark Madsen of the ACC; but a mad-dog with much
more offensive polish in one Hansbrough Toys. 6`9“ Tyler Hansbrough has bulked up and strengthening himself with weight-room effort all the way up to a rock solid 250 lbs. He has added a mid-range game and now has extended his mid-range game to nearly 18-20`. On top of that expect Tyler to get every single close call as he just broke the all-time NC2A FT makes mark (9o7 if you are keeping score at home). Tyler also leads UNC in scoring (21) and Rebounding (8). I’m no UNC fan but it is tough to dislike this Popular Bluff, Montana native. #50 (on the right) goes out and gives you all that Coach God gave him. At the very least you must respect on that.
But Tyler has some friends who have some McDonald’s all-Americian game themselves (8 if you are keeping score at home). Ty Lawson a 5`11` 195 lb. point-guard from Clinton Maryland leads the ACC in assists and is 12th nationally at such which chipping off a nifty 16 points per night on 49% shooting from beyond the arc himself. Though he is coming off of his worst game of the year by far last time out vs. Gah.Tech. Ty is considered by many to be the fastest point-guard in all of D-1, despite some former ankle rolling wose. Wayne Ellington a 6`4“ 200 lb. 2-guard from Waynewood PA is a likely 2009-2010 star in the making for UNC. Wayne is third in scoring at 15 per game. Wayne is joined by 6`6“ 210 small-forward Danny Green
who antes up 14 per game and fellow starter 6`8“ 245 lb. power-forward Deon Thompson who chips in with 11 points and 6 boards.
In all the T.Heel starters juice you up for a whopping 85% of UNC’s total offensive output on the year! But you just know that the UNC bench is freaky good and riddled with subsequent stars down the (tobacco) road. Tyler Zeller a 7` wirey power-forward and Ed Davis a 6`10“ Richmond VA native proved about 13 per game and 10 boards for the Heels froncourt off the pine. The T.Heel backcourt back-ups are not a productive but NBA legacy baller Larry Drew II should change that down the road. UNC plays 11 guys 11 minutes or more per game. So fatigue could be a problem if JT, Shortie and MD-20-20 (Malcolm Delaney) are all still less than 100%; as Seth only played one Hokie sub more than 9 minutes vs. Duke.
That’s a pretty damn good hoops team folks. Gonna take a lot to beat UNC; but how much do our Hokies have left after 8 gut-wrenching close game L’s and with 3 of our Top-8 ballers at less than 100%?
There is a bit of a look-ahead factor for UNC as they catch arch-rival Duke up next. That will not hurt our chances, nor does Senior Night, nor does playing in the Cassell on national TV. Nor will the fact that UNC has been running hot and cold on offense of late; with three games at or below 40% from the field in their last five outings.
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In fact … in the three UNC L’s on the year, the T.Heels have been held to between 35% shooting and 38% shooting from the floor. So that’s you in-game baramoter right there folks.
But we do need a good start. Some sage soul on the pay MB pointed out that when Seth has been upset by bums and beaten in close gut-wrenching finishes; there is one thing in common.
A slow Hokie start and playing most of the game from behind. With the caliber of firepower that this very experienced T.Heel team is packing; a slow Hokie start in terms of offensive production could mean turn out the lights the O&M party is over. Sadly that is exactly what I’m sensing. Virginia Tech=73 UNC=86
“LETS GO!”
“HOKIES!”
b’street.