The 2018 Kentucky Derby:
Kentucky bluegrass, Sun dressy mad-hatter she bleu-bloods, and man’s game he sized bourbon; all hosting the first weekend in May down at “...my old Kentucky home.“
Derby fans rejoice, as unlike last year, it looks to this humble scribe like we have some real live talent set to run for the roses a run this Saturday afternoon at just before 7pm. And the ponies are none too shabby looking this year— either. Now mix in the Mexican Holiday of Cinco De Mayo and sí mis amigos, we’ve got about five or so legitimate Derby contenders this year. And at least two of ’em might have a little something something to Triple Crown, say. Nevertheless, you want to know who will Win (or Place, or Show); right? Read on to, find… out!
Strategic Derby weights:
- The very first thing that rang my Kentucky bell this year was the apparent increase in raw horsing-around speed in this 2018 Derby field. As there is several above average equine velocity type quadrapeds set to break from the gates in this Saturday. A noticeable improvement in 4-wheel drive pure RPM’s over last years somewhat underwhelming crop of 3-year old’s. Making this a very very good speed field, maybe even a great one…
- Nevertheless, one might well be forgiven for suggesting that this years K.Derby field is actually more parts Preakness -or sprinters- and less parts Belmont -or closing distance- type of latent runners.
- Now that being said, the first two legs of the 2017 Triple Crown look very inviting at the moment— at least upon paper as this field has speed, possibly even speed to burn.
Tactical Derby measures:
- Thing is, and as you will read below, I (currently) see two or three stud horses here, and then about as may pretty dang goods. Making this a rather top heavy Derby field.
- Well, if not for the fact that I also charted a few very bottom heavy horses; that left me wanting to go looking for a maximum length of victory prop. i.e. betting the over on the amount of lengths separating first and last (or 20th) place finishers. As there are several résumé fodder type entrants at the bottom of this year’s Derby field.
- Finally, for all the potential potency as pure speed-merchants go, what if the two late runners are where the true mercantile savvy or smart-money really should be?
the skinny…
Right now I am serially left wondering if the authentically best race-horse in this years Derby has already endured the Belmont ‘esque longest trip? As 11,824 km is quite the trip in order to get to Churchill Downs, Kentucky, America, and North America in general. As the more than token huge money Arab’/Dubai entrant in this year’s Derby may very damn well be for real. Cue one Mendelssohn who has been breaking Mid-East track records left-n-right.
Yes, it is true, both Audible and Justify may indeed want a word, an oat, and they may have a carrot to pick with all of that. Though “hey”, you now begin to see what I mean when I say there is some real live thoroughbred gunning type talent at the top of this year’s 3-year old field. And that does not even include late running Good Magic, who has spoiler written all over him in a field that is Blessed with speed and yet lacks, closers. Mutually the Belmont bread Bravazo who seems to have an extra drop-tank for distancing on board as well.
Not to mention the all-around sound as can be: Bolt d’Oro; the improving My Boy Jack, or the sleeper pick of Flameaway.
the call…
My real call is that we are in for one a whale of a horse race. Be that a pure, raw fast-twitch sprinting match between two to four of the more elite runners here. Or be that one of the closers runs one of these pure bred runners down from behind, late.
***
Accordingly, I’m also on the prowl for a under on a margin of victory prop; as this one could end in the now electronically monitored proverbial photo-finish indeed.
That all being said… Justify has no real weaknesses, and it would appear that other than desynchronosis (i.e. jet-lag), Mendelssohn has no real weaknesses as well.
Toss up between these two ***** five star recruits; however, a mild reach pick on a late runner here may prove to be right on time.
Loading ...Show bets=Justify (5u) and Mendelssohn (2.5u).
“LETS GO!”
“Racing!”
bourbonstreet**
I know the owner of Good Magic. Good man with a knack for picking winners, and generous as hell. Hoping to see him in the Winner’s Circle.
Far out.
Neat share too.
That horse has a late shot.
Maybe more of a Belmont kinda guy if not here.
b.street
On sheer large field and travel quality grade one experience Mendelssohn. His time at Dubai was ridiculous. Yea I know history of UAE horses not doing well. Check out his trip to Delmar last year on grass. If he traveled well he will be tough.
No argument here.
Look, Mendelssohn could indeed be the alpha-pony on Saturday.
Caveat is/was… I could not figure (bad pun) I could not figure out which speed numbers I was looking at on his Irish sheets? Was it Beyer (lower) or Brisnet (higher)?
It would make a handicapping difference.
Possibly a noticeable one…
b.street
As always, solid take.
Vino Rosso is a bit undervalued, I think. I can see him being an excellent show bet.
Coming from a real horseman… I appreciate that.
Thank you Newt.
b.street
I like Justify and Good Magic in an exacta box.
Hmmmm
shazam!
want that Preakness preview?
I can get outta the way.
epic!
b.street