A.c.c. basketball preview: Virginia Tech @ Duke:

#100 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #2 R.P.I. Duke:

TV coverage: high-noon ACC.net
Vegas line: VT+15
o/u=134
$-line: TBA

You have to wonder just how long VT can walk the late-game razor’s edge without getting cut to emotional ribbons. Life on the proverbial edge may be thrilling indeed, though it is also dicey as best, as one false move and you are Ginsu infomercial clean-up crew material be sure. Talk about your year on the brink! Geez! Close-shave after closer-shave after closest-shave –and now we face the ultimate homecourt advantage (cough-cough) -errrrrrr, ahhhhh, I mean the ultimate homecourt bias- that has a very fair to middling chance to leave Virginia Tech with a homely case of bedeviling razor-burn from stem to stern this weekend down in Durham North Carolina.

Duke on the other hand is on no less than an Elite-8 pace at this late stage of the 2011-2012 regular season game. #4 ranked in national terms (F.S.U. result pending) at 23 up and 4 down does not suck. Neither does being a ½ game outta first place in the A.c.c. race to the regular season crown. 10-2 in Atlantic Coast terms is no bad mark for a Duke program that was thought to be in a very minor version of rebuilding or at least perhaps reloading to begin the season.

“Certainly Duke is Duke, they are on TV more than Leave It To Beaver, reruns.”  -Coach Pete Gillian-

Truer words, never…

…that said, if you wanna scout Duke good and hard tune in Thursday  night at 7pm on regulation ESPN or ESPN36o and take a long hard look at what looks like a long hard intra-conference match-up as the Dukies visit #16 ranked Florida State, at least on Atlantic Coast paper.

This is a very very good Duke hoops team folks, possibly even a Final-4 caliber one and one that will require a monumental Hokie effort in order to pull what would be one of Coach Greenberg’s greatest upset of all-time come Saturday afternoon down on tobacco road.

Duke at a glance:

• 11^th in scoring offense (79.5 ppg)
• 21^st in 3-point FG percentage (38.9%)
• 46^th in FG percentage (46.9%)
• 66^th in offensive rebounding
• 67^th fewest turnovers (12.4)
• 222^nd in scoring defense allowed (68.6 ppg)

Duke Frontcourt:

• N.B.A. pros=3
• Injuries=none

WAR nepotism!!!

Plumees, plural, -as in three of ‘em- and a Kelly dot the Duke frontcourt. There is no good way to put this, so I’ll simply rip the O&M Band-Aid and say that the Dukie frontcourt edge is large and in-charge indeed. Almost 21 combined feet amassed in three skillful, resourceful, synergistic and extremely well coached big-men says so.

Leading the way upfront and second in scoring would be 6`11“ 235 lb. much improved junior forward Ryan Kelly. Ryan is getting you 11.9 ppg with 5.5 boards, a second best 1.0 blocks and quite reasonable 41.2% from 3-point land. You leave this uncannily skilful big open from the outside at your own peril as there may not be a more practiced big in the entire A.c.c. this year. That and doubling nearly his entire stat-line with s 200% improvement virtually straight across the board has Mr. Kelly making some most-improved player of the year award winning noise down in the Raleigh-Durham area. The additional 15 lbs. of right mass that Ryan added this off-season is a testament to his willingness to work himself up as this kid is something of a round-ball Cody Grim. As he just has coach God given instinctive knack for being in the right place at the right time. Starting alongside Kelly upfront is one of the two Plumlee’s, Mason (far: right) thereof is a third-year player who stands in at 6`10“and 235 lbs. of still improving quasi power-forward surprisingly springy frontcourt baller. Mason has been on a rebounding tear of late and leads Duke at 9.5 rebounds per game –placing Mason second in the entire A.c.c. on the glass by just a hair south of one full rebound. Mason also chips in with 10.9 points and a team leading 1.5 blocks on high-flying and above the rim 55.5% from the floor. The interesting part of Mason’s game is that he leads Duke in FTA’s with an official rubberstamp regarding any benefit of the doubt with 140 FTA’s on the season; however, he only nets 48.6% of his free-throw attempts. That’s not good and that does somewhat mitigate the athletic effects of an open-floor runner who is perfectly willing to finish at the rim and such therefore leaves Mason adhesively stuck to a third team all-A.c.c. level.

How ‘bout two more Plumlee’s you ask? Sure thing, although one is red-shirting. That would be 6`11“ and 225 lb. t-freshman Marshall Plumlee (far: left) who is taking this season off. It must be nice to have that kinda frontcourt depth; as Marshall surely starts at Virginia Tech right now as I type; even if he is a year away from playing at Duke University. That embarrassment of frontcourt riches brings me to the senior year and borderline burly Plumlee the 6`10“ 245 lb. Miles Plumlee. Miles is sporting patriarch and elder statesmen of the Plumlee family and he is also more of a defensive Plumlee who gives you 6.6 points & rebounds alike off the Dukie bench. That said; don’t think Miles to be a pure brute, as he does possess a soft tough in and around the basket while leading Duke in shooting from the field at 62.2% and he too will send a shot back what with 0.9 swats per game on the season. Miles (middle) is one of the top run-n-jump athletes in the entire A.c.c. as his startling team leading 36 inch vertical leap strongly attests. Not bad for a kid who needed some measure of pulmonary work and who has slung 25 lbs. of right mass on his frame since arriving at Duke. Josh Hairston is a 6`7“ 235 lb. Commonwealth (Fredericksburg, VA.) swing escapee up front who also contributes token minutes and similarly token production off of Coach K’s bench. Josh is a chiseled power-forward trapped in a small-forwards body and the son of a Virginia State Trooper; so you know that discipline is unlikely to be a culprit here.. Josh is a sophomore three (small-forward) who antes up 2.8 points and 1.5 rebounds in just over 8 minutes of p.t. (playing time) off the Duke pine.

Duke Backcourt:

• Association pros=at least 1, maybe more
• Hurts=zero

 The Dukies typically employ a three guard starting line-up with limited spot minutes coming from two back-up guards off the Duke bench. Such gives Duke a rather short 7-man rotation, so fatigue could be a factor in this one on such a quick Tallahassee turnaround for Coach K and company.

Leading Duke in scoring with 15.2 ppg is #0, Austin Rivers who is Boston Keltic head coach “Doc” Rivers pride and joy. Austin is so good that most N.B.A. scouts have this true-freshman listed as “one and done.” Rivers has bona-fide 3-point range, and I don’t just mean collegiate range on his jumper, I mean Association 23`9“ range and beyond. 40.5% from behind the arc as a NC2A rookie is pretty dang fine shooting. Don’t’ believe me? Just as U.N.C. Nor is 44.4% from the floor on a series of high arching tear-drops that give legacy Rivers a nearly lethal inside-and-out 1-2 scoring punch or combination game. Interestingly enough, Rivers has his strategic eye set upon becoming a TV basketball commentator down the road; though this little thing called a Association paycheck may have some say in that.

Virtually matching Rivers production while getting his own flow on would be yet another legacy Curry that got away. Seth is also Dell’s son and he is gives Coach K 13.4 ppg, almost 3 boards and a team leading 2.5 assists per game down in Durham North Carolina. Seth is a 6`2“ 180 lb. junior baller who may not quite be on par with Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry. That said, Seth is no slouch in his own right, though he has yet to fully blossom in Atlantic Coast terms as a stud Liberty freshman year transfer as most had forecast back in 2009. Seth leads Duke in steals with 1.4 per game and with 88.4% from the FT-stripe though he was a little off from the floor vs. Florida State the other night checking in at 25% from the floor overall despite having made no less than every other shot (or ≥50%) since the beginning of this month. Peculiarly enough, this Curry-kid is only the third player in Coach K’s 22 year run at Duke to have transferred into Duke. Sources suggest that Seth has been better in practices than he as in games and such therefore suggests to me that Seth is either due to break-out and step his game up, or that he is not so shinny under the pressure of the bright-lights. Pressure makes diamonds and pressure bursts pipes … take thy pick.

Also starting in the Dukie backcourt is one-dimensional pure shooter ‘dre (as in Andre) Dawkins. ‘dre is a 6`4“ 200 lb. junior year shooting-guard who nets you 9.9 points on 42.2% from downtown after having graduated High School a year early after the eleventh grade. ‘dre is known to be one of the better long-range marksmen in the entire A.c.c. and he is not ‘fraid to take the last second shot either. Chipping in off of Coach K’s pine in the backcourt would be Michael Gbinije, and Quinn Cook. Quinn is a 6` 175 lb. debut year t-freshman point-guard from Maryland who likewise enjoys deep shooting range and is a dean’s list student. Quinn tickles the twine for 4.6 points in just over 12 minutes of play as the Duke backcourt looks to be in good hands for years to come. Gbinije is a new addition to the substitute Duke backcourt rotation who is a rangy athlete who gives Coach K something of a defensive stopper off his pine. The 2 points and 44% shooting from downtown that the 6`7“ 207 lb. rookie year Chester Virginia native Mr. Gbinije gives you are all gravy at this point.

Conclusion(s), illation, OPT digits:

“Where you stand is where you sit…”
-Nelson Mandela-

And right now Virginia Tech stands in at 2 games above .5oo or with 15 W’s and 13 L’s. As this Duke game is less than likely to be realistically categorized as a scratch mark in the orange & maroon win-column in the final analysis; one is therefore forced to deduce that Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech must travel and beat a moderate Clemson squad, and then close-out any pending post-season business at home vs. the bubble NC2A team otherwise known as NC.State. Oh wait, that’s me, putting the cart before the horse again? Yah; it prolly is and yet Duke is prolly gonna win this one just the same. Thus leave Virginia Tech sitting -if not firmly ensconced- on the ‘rong side of the N.I.T. bubble.

To put it another way, hateful uva may have just forced Vah.Tech’s 2012 A.D. post-season hand as that “popping” sound your Hokie eardrums detected was indeed a change in post-season elevation; as dirty france nearly burst the Hokies National Invitation Tournament bubble all by their ownself on Tuesday night down in the New River Valley. How will Virginia Tech respond to a triskaidekaphobic (or 13^th) game on the brink? Listen folks, this Virginia Tech hoops squad could just as easily be 20 win club right now every bit as much as it could be “bleep”-kicked 18 L basketball team. That’s asking a lot out of anylockeroom and that is asking even more from a Hokie bench that is downright juvenile outside of battle-hardened Erick Green, ‘Zo, and V.D. Ergo, take your half-full, half-empty or twice-too-large pick.

Or in other words, and to return to my opening allegory; this has been one emotionally gutting season, no matter how you slice it.

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This closer will not be one of my lengthier or one of my more esoteric drowning in a stream of my very own continuousness ones. Why? Because no matter where I looked and no matter how long I tried; I could not find a single solitary credible reason to pick the Vah.Tech upset. The only mild intangibles that I could find to favor Virginia Tech would be the quantified fact that Seth and company enjoy a +2 edge in rest and reps alike as prep-work goes for this A.c.c. intra-conference match-up. The subjective helper would be the fact that the Seminole made for national TV match-up could very well have deflated Duke a little bit –albeit it not enough.

The one thing that struck me when I ran the “since we last saw ‘em” numbers; was the fact that the Duke frontcourt play has ever so slightly regressed since the opening game of February. It is however the Dukie backcourt that has more than made up for such, as Rivers is dangerous close to blossoming into a very mature late-game closer even though is collegiate career is only 28 games young. Now marry that to the fact that Seth Curry is playing better overall, ditto Andre Dawkins and Michael Gbinije and Quinn Cook off the Duke backcourt bench. Such all conspires to afford Duke a very very well-balanced offensive attack that is experiencing some flirtation with Gestalt Theory and is consequently quickly becoming greater than the sum of its pre-season forecasted parts.

Facts are facts and lets all be forward-facing when it comes to say and go ahead and say whatever everyone is thinking … Duke is gonna win this basketball game. It is not so much a matter of “if” as it is a matter of “by how much”?

Virginia Tech=52, Duke=77

“LETS GO!”

“HOKIES!”

bourbonstreet**