A.c.c. basketball preview: Virginia Tech @ Miami:

#92 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #38 R.P.I. Miami:

TV coverage: ESPN2, 9pm
Vegas line: VT+6.5
o/u=132
$-line: TBA

During the Clemson pre-game, I was kicking around just how fenced I was –hence my 1 point VicTory pick- when someone said to me: “Clemson’s not that good.”

I was leaning towards picking VT to get beat; although it was a very near thing, downright narrow in effect. This one however has at least a minor favorite, although up until 2-3 weeks ago I would not have favored today’s favorite by much of anything. One team is playing a bit better of late, and one team is scuffling for wins. One team has a nice inside-out combo quadratic-punch; one team lacks surefire go-to star-power based scoring.

One team is seven games above .5oo and has a fairly smart look at the post-season right about now, and one team is skirmishing to finish .5oo and suddenly the National Invitation Tournament never looked so good. One team has played 3 extra periods (or 15 additional minutes) in its most recent two contests, one team has won as many games in just 4 days of February play as it won in all 31 days of last month. One team is a half game outta an A.c.c. 1^st-round bye, and one team is a half game outta Atlantic Coast  last-place.

And yet, both teams need this win, as both teams finish with 3 nationally ranked teams and 2 winnable games. That makes this one the classic textbook swing game as A.c.c. intra-conference play is now amped all the way up and in full swing.

One team is the A.c.c. home favorite where the Atlantic Coast host wins ~70% of the time. We all know how that tends to go, and yet there is nothing unreachable nor unbeatable about Miami, although there is something downright clutch about these cardiac So.Beach ‘Canes latterly.

Miami at a glance:

• 52^nd in FT percentage (73%)
• 55^th in turnovers per game (12.3)
• 66^th in 3-point FG makes per game (7.4)
• 81^st in scoring offense (72.4 ppg)
• 237^th in defensive rebounding

Miami Frontcourt:

• N.B.A. pros= 1 maybe 2 possible next level big-bodes (C, Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji)
• Injuries= 1 (reserve Julian Gamble: 6`10“ 265 lb. power-forward, torn A.C.L., 4 ppg, 3 rebounds on 60% shooting, closed very well to end 2011)
• (more later)

  

#42 Reggie Johnson puts the “big” in big-man and than some. As his 6`10“ of 305 lbs. worth of bruising, bulky, burly, nearly behemoth sized big-man says so. This dood is a monster on the inside, think Lurch of Adams Family fame after having devoured an all-you-can eat Denny’s building, not just the buffet. Reggie is large and Reggie is in charge, just ask his 12 points per game, 7 rebounds, 1 block and 52% from the floor; those are some pretty decent vitals (statistics) despite having had Meniscus surgery last summer to repair torn knee cartilage if you can get it. This is one rotund center who is not shy on applying a shocking amount of shoulder-lowering voltage if you dare play behind him down low. Reports outta So.Beach suggest that he may have cut all the way down to the mid two-eighties (~285 lbs.) in weight during this season as his surgically repaired knee is finally allowing him to engage in some measure of cardio-conditioning. If that is true, this XL sized Johnson is potentially playing his way into some version of shape and therefore into some level of post-season all-A.c.c. honors. Mr. Johnson was listed the best rebounder in the Atlantic Coast Conference by the Lindy’s pre-season magazine. That may all be well and good, and possibly even true, when Mr. Johnson can stay in the game via staying outta foul-trouble that is. As he has been in foul-trouble in 7 outta his 12 games this season or 58% of his 2012 contests after returning to action on December seventeenth due to missing the first 9 games of the season. There is a lotta potential here, and one gets the sense that Mr. Johnson is making an undeclared contract-season push to close the 2012 show. This kid is a one man mosh pit, this kid is a load, and if recent play is any indication, this kid is gonna give the Hokie frontline a bona fide  fit.

Kenny Kadji is really a F-C (forward-center) combo low-post player. Ken goes 6`11“ 251 lbs. of oft injured and University of Florida transferred junior year largeness. Ken has overcome the always treacherous back-surgery to blossom down on So.Beach.  Ken now places third in scoring with 12.6 ppg (points per game), second in board-work with 5.8 rpg (rebounds per game), and first in blocks with 1.8 swats per contest. That’s no bad stat-line for a kid known primarily as a defender and not much else when he was a Gator. Ken also leads the U in shooting at 55.8% from the floor and a utterly shocking 48.6% from range, good for second best on the team in 3-point shooting. Such clearly demonstrates that Ken is a bit more skilful than his incoming Gainesville reputation had originally suggested. This kid can flat out play the game and if he is not careful this Cameroon native might just be playing his way into an overseas professional paycheck with a banner season next year. Chipping in with swing position frontcourt minutes off the Cane bench would be DeQuan Jones, a 6`7“ 221 lb. final-year high-flying finisher with a history of hand hurts. DeQuan gets you a welcome 6.6 ppg, and 4.0 rpg, on a improved 50% from the floor and 40% from beyond the arc. That’s a pretty decent upside from a kid who shot a lowly 8% from downtown last year if you ask me.

Miami Backcourt:

• Association pros= 2 possible fringe overseas players (Durand Scott and Malcom Grant)
• Hurts=1 (reserve Garrius Adams: 6`6“ 200 lb. third-year right sized point-guard, 6. out until end of the season with knee surgery, 5.7 ppg, 3.3 boards, on 39% from 3-point land)

Despite the fact that Miami enjoys two large bigs down-low, this Hurricane hoops team is pretty dang guard heavy as they play a 3-guard line-up with a total of 5 guards making regular rotational contributions.

Leading Miami in scoring is Durand Scott. Scott is a 6`5“ 202 lb. NYC baller who nets you 13.1 ppg with 5 boards and a team leading 3.5 apg (assists per game). Mister Scott is something of an impoverished mans pure scorer who tends to raise his game on the bigger stage(s) and in particular during post-season play. Durand has decent range on his J (jumper) and he will penetrate and get to the line as he does lead the ‘Canes with 94 FTA’s on the year where he makes 8.1 outta 10. Scott has been great of late averaging 18 ppg since the end of last month and there is something of a streaky element to his game. Complimenting Scott in the U backcourt and giving Miami and all-NYC kinda flavor is Brooklyn native Malcolm Grant. Malcolm is a 6`1“ 188 lb. senior who gets you 12.7 ppg and a couple of boards and assists. Malcolm is a Villanova transfer who just like Mister Scott is a fringe all-league talent who is likewise is more parts pure scorer and less parts anything else. Rounding out the Hurricane starting backcourt (note: Grant did not start last game due to a team issue) is 5`10“ 160 lb. freshman year bantamweight #0 Shane Larkin. Yes, Shane is related as his old-man is none other than 12-time Major League Baseball all-star Barry Larkin of Cincinnati Red fame. Clearly there is some handsome sporting fast-twitch D.N.A. in play here for one of the top point-guard recruits in the nation from a year ago. Shane gives you 7.3 points and 2.6 rebounds and assists alike as a novice year floor-general. Shane is also a golden-glove defender as he leads Miami with 1.9 steals per game; and he also paces the U at a sizzling 92.3% from the charity-stripe. Once this kid fills out you have to like his chances to make some level of all-A.c.c. noise before 2015 comes to a close.

Contributing off the pine to the Hurricane backcourt would be sophomore Rion Brown and junior year Milwaukee native Trey McKinney Jones. Rion is a 6`6“ 194 shooting-guard who is actually the best defender in the entire 5-man ‘Cane backcourt. Rion manufactures 5.5. ppg, gets you a couple of rebounds and an assist while shooting 40% from 3-point land. Mr. Jones is a 6`5“ 216 lb. ‘tweener who gives the ‘Cane bench a fair measure of back-up height to go with 7 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in what amounts to periphery starting minutes at 25 per game. McKinney is a Missouri-Kansas City junior college transfer who is the most physical backcourt player the U employs. McKinney’s uncle is none other than Mark Jones the former Orlando Magic 2-guard and his aunt Ester only has an 1992 Olympic gold-medal for the 4X100m relay team hanging in her trophy-case. Human Genome Project field tech’s and specimen bottles,  please report to the So.Beach dance floor!

Conclusion(s), illation, OPT digits:
So what changed after Seth Greenberg’s call out of his player’s moxie and or efforting under adversity after the Duke game? Well, a couple of things did not change. This is still not a good rebounding team as Virginia Tech nearly has no true bigs on the inside to do work in the paint and on the glass. -10 in rebounding margin vs. Clemson might be a hint on that one. Virginia Tech still has no star power whatsoever as Virginia Tech only has three guys averaging double-digits between 10 and 15 ppg, as E.Green, D.Hudson, and J.Eddie have combined for precisely one superstar ‘esque 20+ point game in their last 46 games combined, Suddenly the antics of M.Delaney and J.Allen –which could be quite antic- never looked so good. Seth and company just do not have anywhere in which to turn when Virginia Tech needs a couple of surefire key hoops to stem a tide or when Virginia Tech needs a few baskets to pull away;, or much less to seal a deal.

That said, a couple of things did change, for instance, Virginia Tech’s defensive intensity racketed up a couple of full-fledged notches at home vs. Clemson. Just ask the Tigers clanking 37% from the floor and downright brickish 11% from range. Do-Do (Dorian Finney-Smith) his ownself changed, as did his previous 0-25 categorical arctic shooting-streak spread across no less than 6 full games of 100% futility from the floor. The hidden metric of flux here however is Hokie blocked shots. Virginia Tech finally broke the seal on the floor and rose on up to block 4 Clemson shots last time out. No, this 2011-2101 will never wrongfully be confused as any measure of a S.W.A.T. squad. Though Tech can hustle and Tech can still pull a John Houseman and win games the old fashioned way “…they earn it.”

This springtime Hokie hoops crew is not easy on the eyes; they are not pretty to watch, they do not pass the eye-test. They do however need to dig deep and gut out a gamey road victory down in Coral Gables on Thursday night vs. a semi surging Hurricane basketball side.

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     T_his is not gonna be one of my more rambunctious closers, nor one of my more rambling ones. Well, maybe a little rambling –that caveat firmly in place, this is a very basic looking game to me best forecast in rather entry level elementary terms. Why? Because when I ran the home/away splits, and the most recent 5-game trends, there just was not a whole lotta OPT industrial grade info’ based gold to be mined.

Miami is 9-2 or 81.1% at home, Virginia Tech is 42% as the visitor or in other words, Miami is twice as likely to win as the host with Virginia Tech as the visitor when taken as an index.

Miami is the somewhat more precocious team in offensive terms overall, and Virginia Tech is slightly more advanced as a 5-man stop-unit goes on the defensive end. That should tend to cancel out; only thing I could find was a slight lessening as defensive stiffness goes in Virginia Tech’s defensive collar of late. So I turned to Graham Houston’s self-proclaimed Forum Guide to evaluate recent play head-to-head vs. common opponents. The Hokies and the U have both played Maryland and Duke in consecutive games. Virginia Tech was beaten by 19 total points whereas Miami won by 8 total points which predicts a 13 point and change win for the homesteading ‘Canes. That seem a tad too tall to you? Yup, I too; although it is difficult to not favor Miami inside their own So.Beach gym where the A.c.c. hosts tends to win nearly 70% of the time. That said, the more telling vitals (statistics) would be the fact that Miami did not really shoot better than Virginia Tech did, they out-shot Virginia Tech which is to say the ‘Canes won the war on the glass and simply put up more FGA’s than the Hokies did. That’s the key in-game barometer here me, FGA’s. Miami gets more shots off and Miami wins this one plain and simple.

The one orange and maroon lifeline to VicTory here will be getting the nearly 14` and 550 lbs. of Miami frontcourt bigs into early foul-trouble and off the floor A.S.A.P. Virginia Tech does that and Virginia Tech has a fair to middling chance to win ugly out on the Atlantic Coast road. Virginia Tech does not do that and Miami will slowly wipe the glass and slowly pull away and do just enough to win.

Virginia Tech=69, Miami=73

“LETS GO!”

“HOKIES!”

bourbonstreet**