Kentucky, bluegrass, an oval dirt track, an infield that has more than a pinch of Bourbon Street at night to me -sometimes a lot more- and maybe even something a little… Exotic, over at the betting window?
Down at Churchill Downs; where the wimminz are typically, pricey, their hats cost even mo’ than that, and you’d realllllllllllllllllllly should pack some S.P.F. of at least 30 if you plan to make a day of it. A hand-fan would be no bad thing, either; and oh yes, who will win Saturday’s BIG race? Well, I’ve tabulated yet another spreadsheet and here are the horses we hope will Excel tomorrow at ~6:34PM post-time!
As you can see, the (8-1) and prime speed horse Exaggerator and the (3-1) favorite and 7 for 7 lifetime never ever beaten Nyquist are tied in my above spreadsheet. The early 3-year old season fave (15-1) Destin scored very well and does have the speed to do some smart work here.
Than there is a modest drop off to at least two other tiers of horses. Horses in the mix, although perhaps not (quite) on Exaggerator’s, Nyquist’s or even Destin’s level. Closing horses with distance capabilities like (10-1) Creator and (20-1) Suddenbreakingnews –both of whom are unfortunately sammwiched along the rail. Workerbee or just plain steady droning right along horses like (15-1) Outwork and maybe even (20-1) My Man Sam.
Derby ∑ or summary:
- the general horsing around cognoscenti consensus is that this is a so-so to modest 3-year old 2016 crop overall.
- if bullet #1 is taken as being true, there must be some betting value further down this board; less a truly well hewn Triple Crown contending horse.
- however, Nyquist must have won all 7 of his 7 races for some reason or reasons, plural.
- And yet, the Kentucky Derby favorite has won exactly 4 times in the last 32 years or a whopping 12.5% of the time! (same as bullet #3, gotta be a reason for that one, as well)
- p.s. lotta Closers in this years field –as five different horses here have come from at least 8 lengths behind to win a K.Derby prep’ race!
Or in other words, anyone who tells you they *know* who is gonna win this years Derby? More often than not you should ask them just how long they have known Mister Jim Beam. As the odds never ever favor picking the winner straight-up here; and the odds always do favor the proverbial house, not the given horse. As it is my experience that this is the hardest sport of all to ‘cap.
Me? I’m sticking to some signature Show picks and prolly a field Play against Nyquist. Though I will say this much… I would not die of shock if Nyquist wins 2/3rds of the Triple Crown, most likely the initial 2/3rds before falling short at the grueling marathon otherwise known as the Belmont Stakes.
As that 7 for 7 set of mathematics suggests a horse with something of a temper or one who welcomes all comers to their path.
Still yet, there are at least two other credible picks here, possibly more, even if there may not be a single Seattle Slew in the lot.
- Destin and Exaggerator each to Show
- Field vs. Nyquist