Derby Thoughts: … who will win Saturday’s mega race?

#BourbonHatsFrillyWimminzKD logo 2016MoBourbon

Kentucky, bluegrass, an oval dirt track, an infield that has more than a pinch of Bourbon Street at night to me -sometimes a lot more- and maybe even something a little… Exotic, over at the betting window?

Down at Churchill Downs; where the wimminz are typically, pricey, their hats cost even mo’ than that, and you’d realllllllllllllllllllly should pack some S.P.F. of at least 30 if you plan to make a day of it. A hand-fan would be no bad thing, either; and oh yes, who will win Saturday’s BIG race? Well, I’ve tabulated yet another spreadsheet and here are the horses we hope will Excel tomorrow at ~6:34PM post-time!

 

16kdSheet

 https://bourbonstreet.sportswar.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2016/05/16kdSheet.jpg

As you can see, the (8-1) and prime speed horse Exaggerator and the (3-1) favorite and 7 for 7 lifetime never ever beaten Nyquist are tied in my above spreadsheet. The early 3-year old season fave (15-1) Destin scored very well and does have the speed to do some smart work here.

Than there is a modest drop off to at least two other tiers of horses. Horses in the mix, although perhaps not (quite) on Exaggerator’s, Nyquist’s or even Destin’s level. Closing horses with distance capabilities like (10-1) Creator and (20-1) Suddenbreakingnews –both of whom are unfortunately sammwiched along the rail. Workerbee or just plain steady droning right along horses like (15-1) Outwork and maybe even (20-1) My Man Sam.

Derby ∑ or summary:

  1. the general horsing around cognoscenti consensus is that this is a so-so to modest 3-year old 2016 crop overall.
  2. if bullet #1 is taken as being true, there must be some betting value further down this board; less a truly well hewn Triple Crown contending horse.
  3. however, Nyquist must have won all 7 of his 7 races for some reason or reasons, plural.
  4. And yet, the Kentucky Derby favorite has won exactly 4 times in the last 32 years or a whopping 12.5% of the time! (same as bullet #3, gotta be a reason for that one, as well)
  5. p.s. lotta Closers in this years field –as five different horses here have come from at least 8 lengths behind to win a K.Derby prep’ race!

Or in other words, anyone who tells you they *know* who is gonna win this years Derby? More often than not you should ask them just how long they have known Mister Jim Beam. As the odds never ever favor picking the winner straight-up here; and the odds always do favor the proverbial house, not the given horse. As it is my experience that this is the hardest sport of all to ‘cap.

$$$
need to pony up some $$$ for these fillies!

Me? I’m sticking to some signature Show picks and prolly a field Play against Nyquist. Though I will say this much… I would not die of shock if Nyquist wins 2/3rds of the Triple Crown, most likely the initial 2/3rds before falling short at the grueling marathon otherwise known as the Belmont Stakes.

As that 7 for 7 set of mathematics suggests a horse with something of a temper or one who welcomes all comers to their path.

Still yet, there are at least two other credible picks here, possibly more, even if there may not be a single  Seattle Slew in the lot.

***

k.Derby picks:

  • Destin and Exaggerator each to Show
  • Field vs. Nyquist

Who wins the 2016 running of the Kentucky Derby???

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bourbonstreet**

2 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Who knows what to make of Destin. He’s the shadow in this race. Mor Spirit is rolling.

    One quibble. For a deep closer, post position really isn’t a factor. In fact, a horse like My Man Sam and Suddenbreakingnews may just hang out at the back and make the long, deep roll through the turn. With 19 horses to deal, deep closers will be risking more than normal than in a 10 horse field.

    There are quite a few Uncle Mo horses in the field, which I find fascinating.

    Another horse, Mor Spirit, is my personal favorite horse in the race because he is from Key Spirit’s bloodline. Key Spirit (Key to the Mint) was adopted by two of my best friends, Patty and J.O. By the way, if you were around VT between 1976-1988 or so, you probably met J.O. in the History department. J.O. spent his ten graduate years researching and writing an unfinished thesis on student unrest at VT in the late 1960’s. in between grading undergrad’s papers. 🙂 Patty and J.O. spoiled Spirit. J.O. passed away last year just after the Belmont after suffering from an aggressive form of ALS. He knew more about horse racing than anyone I’ve ever met, having grown up going to the track with his father almost every day. This is our first season without J.O., so I’ll be rooting hard for Mor Spirit.

    1. One quibble. For a deep closer, post position really isn’t a factor. In fact, a horse like My Man Sam and Suddenbreakingnews may just hang out at the back and make the long, deep roll through the turn. With 19 horses to deal, deep closers will be risking more than normal than in a 10 horse field.

      Solid point Newt.
      Thanks for posting here!

      b.street

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