Duke A.c.c. basketball game preview:

#2 R.P.I. Duke @ #82 R.P.I. Virginia Tech:

TV coverage: ESPN, 7pm
Vegas line: Duke-4.5
o/u=142
$-line: Duke is a 1:1.9 favorite, VT is a 1.65:1 underdog

18-3 overall and 5-1 in-conference play and a perennial national championship contender; that’s about all Duke is year and year out. That and 4 national championships, 13 A.c.c. championships, and 2 gold medals –makes the singular national coach of the year award seem inadequate, don’t it?

Though that is precisely what Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski bring to the Cassell Coliseum head-table on Thursday night for a made for TV ESPN nationally televised audience.

They also bring the bedeviling handful of next level pros, be that domestic or expatriated overseas alike. They also bring a highly efficient offensive attack that seldom wastes a punch and packs quite a wallop both inside and out. The one thing they are not bringing is a mega gifted defensive team, at least not as individual on the ball lockdown defense goes where Duke is just a tad chinny this season whenever they feel their chin-checked.

That said, Duke is the rightful favorite here and I’d have to peg VT’s R.A.T.T. (realistic all the time) upset chances in this one at something south of 20% which might actually be code for something just a hair below 10% when the rubber meets the road.

Duke at a glance:

• 11^th in scoring offense (80.3 ppg)
• 13^th in FG percentage (48.9%)
• 17^th in 3-point FG percentage (39.9%)
• 65^th in blocks (4.4)
• 225^th in defensive FG percentage allowed (43.9%)

Duke Frontcourt:

• N.B.A. pros= ~3 next level players, somewhere worldwide
• Injuries=zero

Plumees, plural, -as in three of ’em- and a Kelly dot the Duke frontcourt. There is no good way to put this, so I’ll simply yank the O&M tooth and say that the Dukie frontcourt edge is large and in-charge indeed. Almost 21 combined feet in just three professional level players says so!

Leading the way upfront and second in scoring would be 6`11“ 235 lb. much improved junior forward Ryan Kelly. Ryan is getting you 12.7 ppg with 5.4 boards, a second best 1.1 blocks and a team leading 47.2% from 3-point land. You leave this uncannily skilful big open from the outside at your own peril as there may not be a more skilful big in the entire A.c.c. this year. That and doubling nearly his entire stat-line with s 200% improvement virtually straight across the board has Mr. Kelly making some most-improved player of the year award winning noise down in the Raleigh-Durham area. Starting alongside Kelly upfront is one of the two Plumlee, Mason thereof (see: right). Third-year Mason stands in at 6`10“ and 235 lbs. in his own right. Mason has been on a rebounding tear of late and leads Duke at 9.8 rebounds per game –placing Mason second in the entire A.c.c. on the glass by a mere 2/10_ths of a rebound. Mason also chips in with 12 points and a team leading 1.5 blocks on 62% from the floor. The interesting part of Mason’s game is that he leads Duke in FTA’s with an official rubberstamp of a benefit of the doubt on 120 FTA’s on the season; however, he only nets 47.5% of his free-throws. That’s not good and that does somewhat mitigate this springy and willing to finish forward’s overall production more than just a little bit.

How ‘bout two more Plumlee’s you ask? Sure thing, although one is red-shirting. That would be 6`11“ 225 lb. t-freshman Marshall Plumlee who is taking this season off. It must be nice to have that kinda frontcourt depth; as Marshall surely starts at Virginia Tech right away even if he is a year away at Duke. That brings me to the senior year and borderline burly Plumlee (above: left), the 6`10“ 245 lb. Miles Plumlee. Miles is more of a defensive Plumlee who gives you 7 and 6 (points & rebounds) off the Dukie bench. That said; don’t think Miles to be a pure brute, as he does possess a soft tough in and around the basket while leading Duke in shooting from the field at 67% and he too will send a shot back what with 1.1 swats on the season. Josh Hariston is a 6`7“ Commonwealth (Fredericksburg) swing escapee who also contributes minutes and production off of Coach K’s bench. Josh is a chiseled power-forward trapped in a small-forwards body. Josh is a sophomore who antes up 3 points and a couple of rebounds in just under 10 minutes of p.t. (playing time) off the Duke pine.

Duke Backcourt:

• Association pros=1-2 overseas pros
• Hurts=none

The Dukies typically employ a three guard starting line-up with limited spot minutes coming from two back-up guards off the Duke bench.

Leading Duke in scoring with 14.1 ppg is #0, Austin Rivers who is Boston Keltic head coach “Doc” Rivers son. Austin is so good that most N.B.A. scouts have him listed as “one and done.” Rives has bona-fide 3-point range, and I don’t mean collegiate range on his jumper, I mean Association 23`9“ range and beyond. 38% from behind the arc as a NC2A rookie is no bad thing, nor is 44% from the floor on a series of high arching tear-drops that give legacy Rivers a nearly lethal inside-and-out combination game.

Virtually matching Rivers production while getting his own flow on would be yet another legacy Curry that got away. Seth is also Dell’s son and he is gives Coach K 12.2 ppg, a couple of boards and a team leading 2.2 assists per game down in Durham North Carolina. Seth is a 6`2“ 180 lb. junior who may not quite be on par with Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry. That said, Seth is no slouch in his own right, though he has yet to blossom as a stud Liberty freshman year transfer as most had forecast back in 2009. Seth (see: right) leads Duke in steals with 1.5 per game and with 87.7% from the FT-stripe though he has been a little off from the floor of late having logged three games at 25% or less from the field overall in his last five contests. Also starting in the Dukie backcourt is one-dimensional pure shooter ‘dre (as in Andre) Dawkins. ‘dre is a 6`4“ 200 lb. junior year shooting-guard who nets you 10 points on 41% from downtown. Chipping in off of Coach K’s pine in the backcourt would be Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook. Ty is 6`1“ 195 lb. District of Columbia reserve pure point-guard. Ty manufactures 4 points, and a couple of rebounds and assists and he can stroke the J from downtown at 46.7% from 3-point land. Quinn is a 6` 175 lb. debut year t-freshman point-guard from Maryland who likewise enjoys deep shooting range. Quinn tickles the twine for 5 points in just 11 minutes of play as the Duke backcourt looks to be in good hands for years to come.

Conclusion(s), illation, OPT digits:
A man could do pretty well for himself betting the VT team total under for the first-half, and the team total over for the second-half of play, blind, and never give any of it a second thought, much less a second look. Even the ill fated R.M.S. Titanic got off to a better start than this year’s Vah.Tech hoops team has of late. Why? Don’t ask me and if you know the answer, eMail Seth Greenberg and let him know what is up with the opening salvo from the gang that couldn’t shoot straight that is habitually off the mark –and yet then the missing pieces begin to fall into place and VT heats up and becomes something of a closer. Albeit a closer that habitually has to come from way off the pace –and we all know that chasing for that long has a way of wearing on a team, on any team for that mater and all the more so on a rather juvenile team that can not be far from hitting the proverbial next-level rookie season wall. That could prove to be what’s the matter if we are not deliberately careful with this one.

Right now I am hoping that Duke –just like North Carolina a couple of weeks ago- is just the tonic that Seth Greenberg needs to kick start things once again and shift back into high-gear before Lombardi proves to sage once again. Saint Vince his ownself once said that “Winning is habit forming and unfortunately so is L’ing.” I’m really hoping that this youngling VT hoops team is not learning how to play just hard enough and just good enough to get beat. One win in our last seven games may not be a habit, though it is a pattern and the pattern and the Vegas odds will favor a Duke victory even out on the road on Thursday night smack dab in VT’s backyard.

“If you play the odds.”–James Bond-

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Is this Duke basketball team the rightful favorite, even out on the road inside our very own Cassell Coliseum?

Yes.

Do we deny this?

No.

However, this Duke basketball squad is one other thing; no, wait, make that two other things. First up -and just like Virginia Tech for that matter- this Duke basketball team is just a touch shy on star power. There may be several Pros indeed on this Dukie hoops roster; however, there is no alpha to omega prime-time singular scoring stud like in years past. Duke is also not quite so formidable on the defensive end as they have been in the historically under Coach K. Now that is not to affirm that Duke is a bad defensive team, it is however to say that they are not up to snuff as prior Duke stop-unit defensive standards would suggest. In point of fact their NC2A national defensive rankings bear this out. To take that argument to its ultimate fruition, one could indeed argue that the better defensive team is the one clad in Chicago-Maroon and burnt-orange tonight. Additionally Duke is only 60% out on the road this season and we all know that the host wins about 7 times in 10 during A.c.c. intra-league play.

When one studies the Home-Away splits, one sees that Duke FG percentage defense allowed softens by 5% from the floor and by 8% from downtown when Duke travels. Ditto the Duke rebounding margin which actually turns negative when the Dukies visit and checks in at a surprising -4.0 out on the road. Conversely Virginia Tech is only allowing 37.5% from the field at home and a starchy looking 22.8% from 3-point land down in the New River Valley..

All of that conspires to say that if our beloved Hokies defensive intensity ramps up, and if we shoot well in terms of 3-point FG percentage, this one could very well stay closer for longer than most experts would expect. And the longer this one remains closer the more the noose-knot that inspires chocking in clinical sports psych terms will begin to tighten around #5 Duke’s neck. However, in the final analysis I look for the front-line size of Duke to be the swing vote in this A.c.c. primary basketball caucus as yet another Curry drives his point home to close the show (pun intended).

 Virginia Tech=67, Duke=77

“LETS GO!”

“HOKIES!”

bourbonstreet**