Game#1 preview: Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech:

#28 Georgia Tech @ #20 Virginia Tech

Vegas Line:

VT-7.5
o/u=48.5
$-line: VT is a bet 2.8 to win 1 favorite, GT is a bet 1 to win 2.4 underdog

TV coverage: 8pm, ESPN Labor Day nite
Announcers: Sean Mcdonnough, Chris Speilman and Quint Kessenich

National TV, Monday Night football time-slot, and the entire Labor Day 3-day weekend sporting nation giving Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech their undivided attention…

…it doesn’t get any bigger than this!

     Nor does the 2012 Georgia Tech offense get any more covert than this. As the early feelers outta the ATL (Atlanta) are all “closed.” As in closed to the media and most any on-lookers alike; I may not know what that means although I do know that the orange and maroon powers that be are quietly nervy about what that might imply. My best suggestion is that P.J. has done all he can to spruce up the Flex-Bone or wishbone based offensive set down in hotlanta and therefore employ some greater come from behind or catch-up cardiac capabilities, if he can. That would appear to posit a bit more passing and big play capability via less traditional offensive wishbone play-calling on the surface.

Ergo, whomever comes out on top at midnight on Labor Day in this one, be that the newfangled coach P.J. Flex-Bone wrinkle(s) for Georgia Tech or the Pistol up-tempo Vah.Tech offensive attack –such can and most likely will determine who is in the A.c.c. championship game and who is Citrus Bowl bound come November as the 2012 A.c.c. Coastal Division standings go. Don’t forget that the team that reads o-1 after this one will effectively need the Labor Day nite winner to be beaten twice in Atlantic Coast terms as that effectively leaves the 1 L team in a -1 hole on o9.o4 sans the head-to-head tie-breaker in A.c.c. play. Meaning … this one almost certainly is a 2 for 1 Coastal deal with UNC post-season ineligible this year.

Top–10:

1. 1^st, as in the winner of this Coastal Division intra-division summit has won or finished runner-up in the A.c.c. each and every time since 2004. i.e. this one is a big damn Coastal deal.
2.  Second. GT finished 2^nd in 3^rd down conversion in all of D-1 football in 2011 and tends to go for it on 4^th down whenever in enemy territory.
3.  Three. As in coach P.J. is only 3 games above .5oo on the road at GT (compared to 15 games above .5oo at home) i.e. the Flex-Bone does not travel well.
4.  Fourteen. As in VT enjoys 14 days of prep for this GT game compare to no more than seven full days of prep in the past.
5. 5.74. Last year was Georgia Tech’s all-time single season high in terms of average yards per rush at 5.74 yards per carry in 2011. (BONUS: GT has rushed for 16,005 total yards in the last four seasons!)
6.  Six. As in P.J. is a nearly unbeatable 96% whenever he scores 30 or more points at Georgia Tech (22-1).
7. As in seventeen. Meaning P.J. and Georgia Tech have not scored lees than 17 points and have not scored more than 28 in four previous contests vs. Virginia Tech. For an average of 23 points per game –so go ahead and expect Virginia Tech to need at least 24 points to win.
8. Eight. Meaning 8 different combined starters between these two teams are either dinged and dented or simply out of game#1 as neither team enters this one at full strength. (BONUS: GT has the 8^th toughest schedule in the nation)
9. 9.56. As in nobody in the history of the A.c.c. with 1,000+ career yards rushing has a higher average yards per carry than Orin Smith’s 9.56 as an A-back at GT.
10. Georgia Tech was 10^th best in Red Zone offense last season at 89%.

Georgia Tech offense: (7 starters return)
Film data was scarce as coach P.J. effectively pulled the plug and went black-out on media access the summer. That means new things. As in I did manage to news reel and scavenge some practice video. Among the subtle or not so subtle nuances I picked up on was the Wingback (or A-back) operating as the very first option in the triple-option set-up sans a the Fullback (or B-back) on what looked colloquially like and H-back or End-around with a normal pitch-out second option to the Fullback in the opposite direction to give it something of a counter element behind all of that. And yet, coach P.J. got what he and his media black-out wanted; as most of us have been left in the dark by such London Blitz approach to fourth-estate coverage. To borrow on Al deGroh … c’est la guerre,

With the media relations of one Al deGroh firmly in mind, let us part company, mow the Lawn and K.I.S.S. (that’s keep it simple stoopid Al, not Paul Stanley and company)

• Belly-Play (Fb hand-off, Qb keeper)
• Option#1 (Hb pitch-out, Qb keeper)
• Option#2 (other or trailing Hb pitch-out, Qb keeper)
• Option#3 (Se/Fl reversal, Qb keeper)

  

Rinse and repeat to the other side and you have the 8 base plays of any option driven offensive set. Which the mathematician in you will no doubt note is truly a quad-option or a sweet-16 when you sum it all up. Now mix in some smart looking Pro elements –and by that I do mean professional or next-level indeed. N.F.L. stylized so-called: “jet-sweeps”, motions and or counter based (misdirection) elements, the occasional Veer drop-back pass after faking the initial belly hand-off to the Fb (or B-back) on a play-action straight outta the 1970’s-1980’s B.Switzer and Senator Osborne Oklahoma and Nebraska era’s respectively. After that, mix in the yesteryear riverboat gambler turned futuristic space-trader masquerading as Cyrano Jones on the 1960’s Trouble With Tribbles Star Trek episode and lob the occasional home-run throw up for grabs in an attempt to keep the opposing defense honest to what has been a surprisingly talented super-star Wr or two down in the ATL And right there you have coach P.J. and his nutty spread out Flex Bone offense in the proverbial nutshell. The kicker of course being that this WWII era service academy offense brought back to life drives any and all opposing defensive-cordinators “nutz” on the regulation 5  day work week or less.

The key here in not found in the throwback beauty of the 8 base option based plays of coach P.J. The key is found in the catharsis of P.J. changing things up and going away from the 8 base plays, or away from assignment based football to the more Professional looking play-calls that force you to rally to the ball in a much more regulation manner. What is all of that code for? It means that the jet-sweeps and the like are a mental sucker-punch attempt designed to bait-n-switch you away from individual Option assignment based football and psych or con you into over-pursuit and overeager avenger type defensive play. Then P.J. suddenly reverses one of his options on misdirection to the second Wingback or a pure reverse to a Fl or Se on 3^rd and 8 after two consecutive Professional stylized play calls and the base option set is off and running despite the fact that your defense just made two nice stops sure enough. K.Full and Exum should be able to tackle well enough on all of that; ditto the fact that Exum is close to be a smallish OLb in cleats out on our defensive wing. The issue here is found in the lane between the Field-Cb (K.Full) and our Fs (Bonner) and whichever Whip is in the game; and conversely in the lane between our Boundary-Cb (Exum) and our Rover (Jarrett) and the moved over Mike Lb now playing ‘backer (B.Taylor). Jarrett in particular has collision tackling tendencies and Bonner at times was beaten long last season when he bit in support of the run on deep throws after play-action. How will those two do in the middle vs. the exceptionally erudite or assignment driven Flex Bone offense of coach P.J. for the very first time? (never mind our three t-freshmen back-up Secondary ballers –should they actually be pressed into action)

Bud Stoudt’s imperative here is found on first down and therefore forcing second-n-long and then third-n-long after that if at all possible; i.e. force Georgia Tech’s play-calling hand and force them to throw the damn ball. You do this via truly adroit tacking and all the more so via perfect tacking in space. That’s where I have some Rover and Fs concerns as Bonner and Jarrett are much new(er) to the Flex-Bone than say a Tyler, Taylor and Winslow/Whip(s) would be vis-à-vis. Ditto the fact that I observed a creeping hint of impoverished tacking outta our defensive 1’s (or starters) during August camp this year. Just ask J.C. Coleman’s sideline jaunt if you don’t believe me.

The GT O, group-by-group:

Pulling the Flex-Bone trigger is T.Washington. A ginsu or slicing good pure option based Qb who is more parts knifey and less parts J.Nesbitt a Fs in cleats. Washington is a boxer, not a puncher; he’s not a boxer-puncher either. Finesse may not be the name of his game although neither is slugging it out at 6` 2o5 lbs. He is a pitcher not a catcher by trade in spite of his 2.090 career rushing yards. Behind him we see the highly dangerous O.Smith kid who only averaged 10.1 per touch last season! Although the whispers say he has a bad toe right now. At Fullback we see the Marcus Davis ‘esque Qb turned Fb in Mr. David Sims. Even though he did keep his legs churning for 698 on the ground last year; a pokey shin-surgery recover has demoted him to third-string right now which has opened the door for the less bulky Charles Perkins to take his place at Fullback. The other Gee.Tech Wingbacks (or B-backs) bring buco speed and athleticism to the Flex-Bone offensive menu and you’d better hit, wrap-up and drive them into the ground. When you play a turbo powered version of the Flex-Bone offense, like what coach P.J. deploys in 2012; you will find missed tackles here will turn a 3-yard gain into a first-down and a first-down in to a touchdown in a New York second. At Wideout the Wrambling Wreck returns 0 career receptions! There is impressive enough size here at Wr, though I expect that none of the twenty-twelve Georgia Tech pass catches were ranked any higher than 118^th outta high school for a reason. The Georgia Tech offensive line is another matter entirely as they are entirely experienced upfront as they only return 9 of their top-10 offensive linemen from previous season. Among them is all-American candidate #77 Mr. Uzzi at right-G who not only starts the moment he sets foot on the Blacksburg campus, he is prolly our best oLineman the moment he does as well. Mr. Jackson is quite possibly all.A.c.c. at the other G slot and the same can basically be said of  Mr. Bailey over at right-Ot just as soon as he gets his melon (concussion) and foot ligament issue back in good working order. This is a very good Atlantic Coast offensive like folks right now; quite possibly the best oLine once it is put back into 100% operating order.

 So as you can see this one is a rec-room game of 3-dimensional Star Trek chess indeed. Coach P.J. has seen every move and countermove you can possibly imagine indeed. As he clearly is the Kevin McHale of counters to countermoves as there is unconditionally nothing new on the defensive table after 31 years of being the preeminent option based offensive wizard on any sideline in all of D-1 football in America that coach P.J. has not already seen. This one is Kasparov vs. Big-Blue as coach P.J. is just like Mountain Due. “Been there, done that, doing it again, tomorrow.”

Georgia Tech defense: (6 starters back)
The 3-4 or the thirty-four defense if you will folks. The 3-4 employs three down linemen with four linebackers and the regulation two corner-backs and two safeties behind all of that.

Right now this contemporary deGroh incarnation of the 3-4 is stronger the further away from the line-of-scrimmage you move. As the 2012 Yellow Jacket secondary is stinging with talent despite one suspended Cb with what I consider too be no less than two staring  Safeties both of whom could start at Virginia Tech right now.

3-4 Pros:

• +flexible, no need for Nickel substitutions here
• +speed on the field and a better match-ups vs. today’s spread sets
• +blitzing angles can create +offensive confusion
• +coverage combinations

3-4 Cons:

• -weight and bulk for short-yardage or red-zone situations
• -very dLine needy as you need at least 6 guys upfront to make sure they do not wear out; and you need a T.Rex sized Ng to begin with (GT has this and than some!
• -creates two obvious inside rushing gaps between the De-GAP-Ng-GAP-De each and every time
• -Linebackers much be hybrid efficient vs. both the run and the pass alike
• -takes 2-4 years to grow into a 3-4 after the switch

  

Recall last year that we saw all kinds of things outta the 3-4 of Al deGroh. We saw the arrowhead (tirade) 3-4. We saw no downlinemen with all 11 defenders in a 3-point stance outta this 3-4. We saw Tampa-2 or Shell-2 with the Safeties deep protecting against the homerun throw and medium to off-man on the edges; although this cushion does diminish as an opposing offense marched downfield. We also saw Tom Landry or Cowboy Flex elements with heightened movement or shifts in the front-7 pre-snap. Or in other words we saw Al deGroh digging deeper and deeper in to his 3-4 back of tricks as his kids finally have the thirty-four basic nuances down pat. Right now I expect more of the same with a heavy reliance on run and pass blitz alike as you have to think that Al has heard of the 2012 Virginia Tech offense have some blitz pick-up issues this August and flat out troubles with the same last spring. (i.e. Via for Benedict at right-G)

Layer-by-Layer:
The Wreck front-line is decent enough although not great and less great when you get into its bench. It has the 6`8“ 355 lb. behemoth Ng (#90, T.J. Barnes) right in the middle and  it has the Cross kid at De who is a fair to middling Dt at Virginia Tech. Those two are quality right there; and the other 4 of the top-6 rotation are smaller, and a good deal less experienced. The “Nigerian Nightmare” and wannabe Mike Tyson Punch-Out video game stud Jeremiah Attaochu can start at ‘backer at Virginia Tech right now. Hell, he can start for most of the rest of the A.c.c. in point of fact. The rest of the Georgia Tech second layer was sturdy enough; well, at least it was before both returning starting ILb’s we deigned to miss this football game. Right now Georgia Tech only has one starting Linebacker back from last year –and God Bless Mr. ILb Julian Burnett and his bad neck on that. That kindness being  said … this layer is even less experienced than the front-line is due to on and off-field attrition alike. As both ILb positions are filled with nothing less underclassmen and that’s not just a difficulty, that’s an outright bull’s-eye men. The Yellow-Jacket secondary however is pretty dang stout; despite missing its best coverage Cb (Mr. Young) for tix scalping violation for the first game this season. As I said above, both Safeties start at Virginia Tech right now, the other Cb (R.Sweeting) is a post-season Atlantic Coast all-star candidate and they will have 7 of their Top-8 back once they recover the services of Mr. Young. This is one of the better secondary’s we will face this campaign; make no mistake on that folks. (UPDATE: starting Fs Fred Holton is now out as well, such almost reduces the G.Tech secondary letter grade to a B+)

Georgia Tech special-teams: (both legs return)
Right now the Georgia Tech special teams are … well, not so special, more like just about average. That’s not a C- or less and it’s not much beyond a C+ or better either. As I see lottsa middle of the road special teams performers here every bit as much as I do not see any Ferrari’s nor do I see any shock jarring speed-bumps either.

Kicker and Punter both return for Georgia Tech. Well, at least they did until former place-kicker Justin Moore (11-17 FGA’s) got beaten out by kick-off specialist David Scully.

It is not surprising that David enjoys a heavy leg as he was the long-range FGA kicker last year (o-1). His girlfriend just transferred to Georgia Tech, which may or may not be related to his Greg Brady ‘fro. And Mr. Scully notched an unusual amount of tackles downfield in kick-coverage last season after being the 87^th kicker outta high school four years ago. That tells me he is not as soft as his haircut suggests and beyond that, 411 or knowledge on Mr. Scully is hard to come by.

Sean Poole is back at Punter as is his acceptable 39.3 yards per punt leg. This will be Sean’s third year as the starting Punter at Georgia Tech as a r-junior. So he must be doing something right. However, consistency has been an issue here, as have a couple of dings and dents that limited him to 8 games last season. That’s not half bad for a 16o lb. Punter in my book. Although I would like to see Pride & Joy plum get after this kid as there is something just a tad slow about his release.

The KO and Punt-Returners have not been officially announced down in the ATL. That said Zach Laskey did return punts last season, though he has been moved to Fullback (A-back) for this year and the added bulk for such would appear to be poised limit his PR touches this campaign. I can tell you that Georgia Tech was 61^st in punt-returns last season and a lowly 1o8^th in KO returns. Georgia Tech was 39^th in punt-coverage and 59^th in KO coverage last season. (Georgia Tech special-teams letter-grade: overall and while there is some measure of experience back on special teams at Georgia Tech, C+ is the best I can do here as I see nothing all that exotic while seeing nothing all that bland no matter where I look)

Conclusions, illation and OPT digits:
Playing the whacky Paul Johnson Flex-Bone offense is like sitting at your table with your checkbook trying to figure out how you’re going to pay your mortgage, then hearing your water heater in the basement hiss its disapproval.

Virginia Tech used to play Georgia Tech out-side in. Crashing OLb and De’s downwards in a pincer movement. Now Virginia Tech tends to play Georgia Tech more inside-out and over-the-top. Which leaves one wondering how Bud Foster and company will deal with all of these alleged offensive innovations that have been installed down in the ATL this summer which could leave mighty Virginia Tech on the bottom of the scoreboard and looking up at Georgia Tech come the close of the first 15-20 minutes of business on Labor Day night.  As the twenty-twelve Virginia Tech defense has slipped just a bit in terms of average yards allowed per play during the course of the eightieth month of the year thus far.  Check it out…

4.93 yards allowed per play from the 10^th ranked total defense in the nation last year –compared to 5.01 yards per played allowed from the 2012 (starting) defense this August camp. That does not really read like a whole helluva a lot as a lessening goes. However, it would amount to a drop of fourteen stops leaving a somewhat diminished 2012 Virginia Tech stop unit with a 24^th best total defensive ranking overall if we were all playing for keeps at this point.

Call me crazy although I would like to nominate that a certain Small-Forward sized Adonis in cleats and his offensive cohorts had a little something-something to do with all of that. Though how much and what exactly does that mean vs. 2012 Paul Johnson coached Flex-Bone offense that enjoys terminal velocity wherever you look remains the difference between retrospect and prospect for just now. As this 2012 version of the Yellow-Jacket’s wishbone has an ex-Qb playing Fullback (B-back), a sleek Qb playing Qb, and nothing less than turbo-prop jets playing Wingback (A-back) no matter where you look .That’s a killer offense when it comes to taking it to the house and the freakish 2011 rushing numbers at Georgia Tech bare this out. When one examines the damage that these sprinting good A-backs did last year in Atlanta their Q-score is a sexxy Q-score indeed. As the top-3 A-backs averaged 10.2, 10.1 and 8 yards per touch respectively last season! Now mix in 1,700 yards from the Qb and the B-back combined and you might wanna run an extra tackling drill or two as you’d damn sure had better wrap these guys up or it will be Katie bar the door as this is the most explosive imported Naval Academy offense at G.Tech when taken from stem to stern. In front of that G.Tech only returns 9 of its Top-10 2011 offensive linemen and will field coach P.J.’s best offensive line ever in Atlanta just as soon as right-Ot Morgan Bailey gets his melon (concussion) and his foot (sprain) good-to-go.

(UPDATE: I did wanna mention this, I and I forgot to do so right up until I remembered, I’ve been getting feelers hints and vibes about this being a much more in-your-face smash-mouth version of a August football Camp down in the New River Valley. More physical, with more tackling to the ground, more middle-drill and to be direct … more to the point.  How will all of that amped-up, throw-down assertiveness actually and factually play out? Ask me again  in about 1oo hours time)

***

Last year the Georgia Tech stop-unit finished a fairly competitive 44^th best in total defense overall outta 120 D-1 football schools. Recall that this is typically a stay at home and read-n-react version of a 3-4 defense under everyone’s best friend one alley deGroh. This is not a blitz happy version of the thirty-four and it is not want to attack up-field. As only one Yellow-Jacket had more the 3 sacks last year and only one other Yellow-Jacket had more than 5.5 Tackles For a Loss (TFL) last campaign. This is … dare I say it? Oui, I do. This may not be a pure vanilla defense; this is however what I like to call a “french” vanilla defense indeed. That jab at uva’s old ball-coach aside, this 3-4 defense is one other thing, no, check that, it is two other things. The first thing that it is is right-sized. As the Groh boys have finally grown into their respective positions as this is a fairly bulky looking thirty-four defense that is physically stout in all three layers. It is also however a defense that is missing 3 returning starters for various reasons, among them: a tix-scalping Cb, boating-under-the-influence at ILb, and God Bless and career ending neck injury at ILb as well. Ergo, this was a defense I had previously forecast to be among the 2012 Atlantic Coast elite. However, with 116 total tackles and 12 TFL all missing among the best coverage Cb on the team and both of the starting ILb’s and suddenly that’s code for a problem and a noticeable diminishment in forecast 2012 defensive acumen no matter what the Labor Day weekend weather brings.

With offensive changes in place along both Coastal sides of the line-of-scrimmage, that tells me that this one is all about turnovers and field position as you do not wanna give either side a short-field on what figures to be an entertaining and possibly eventful Labor Day night.

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+2 = my standard
That’s my calculus — that’s my equation as Turnover Margin goes. If either side gets to +2 or better in this one in terms of possession integrity; the other side will find that to be disagreeable as this is not the game in which you wanna chase. Ergo, you must favor the fox and forgo the hounds on o9.o3.

Play GT 1st Q line and the over.

Virginia Tech has never scored on coach P.J. in 60 minutes worth of combined opening stanzas of play! Why? Because it is extremely tough to simulate the speed of the Georgia Tech Flex-bone offense in practice; that and the primary Virginia Tech scout-team option Qb hurt his hammie about 10 days ago. On top of all of that, this is the deepest oLine Coach P.J. has fielded at Georgia Tech in front of his fastest set of A-backs and augmented by a a 2.5 year starting Pivot putting the ball in play on top of all of that. Shew! Ergo, to wit, therefore, don’t cry for me Argentina or the TSL football message boards when Georgia Tech jumps out in front early. Say 10-zip, 13-6, or something like that.

IF the former back-up and now forced to start Georgia Tech ILb’s can not fight off the Virginia Tech inside zone well enough; Frank Beamer will have cornered Al deGroh in his bear pit indeed. That’s where Frank thrives as Frank is a trench-fighter just looking for a shovel to happen. Now, that being said, should Via start -and my sourcing says he will- that will be an outside zone and zone-stretch oriented hint for you. Though you just watch Frank come right back to his pet inside-zone power-rushing bread-n-butter calls the instant the Wilt Chamberlain sized #9o steps off the Worsham Field at Ng for Georgia Tech. The availability of big ole Mr. Harris is your O&M play-calling scripting tip of the day. One I plan to validate by charting a T-account post-game for the Eye in the Sky article(s). However, the kicker is that Coach Mike O’Cain must part company with his long ball in-line linear or straight deep-pattern tendencies and throw in front of the Shell-2 Safety drops and work the medium-middle of the field. That brings the Te and  my almost boy R.Dunn into play and did we not just see hints of this creeping into the latent August camp play-calling both in front-of and behind the Hokie scenes?

***

In any manner of speaking, this intra-Coastal division match-up is the brainchild of an emotionally mutilated deity. It is a simultaneously a beautiful concoction of coldblooded X’s and O’s creationism -from both genius level sidelines no less- and yet it is also the pure hell of the H.M.S. Beagle and pigskin Darwinism cut or chopped right down to size for all to see.

So why fly over the consequences of what is surly going to be a feisty –if not outright combative- and therefore downright difficult game to referee. Truly, the cut-block boundary box is about as blurry in real-time as 20-20 vision gone a full bottle of 151 can get.

So why make up post-game “execution” and “leverage” based questions to an answer that which was answered long ago? There are no reasons why, so kill the bird, come out of your shell and learn to fly. And let the 2012 Virginia Tech offense go free. Don’t turtle and go back into your big game power-based conservative shell and skunk thyself. Are you listening elder Coach Beamer?

Or in other words … IF the Frank-n-Stiney offense can finally stand to pull the (Pistol) trigger and put the game in the hands of Logan’s Heroes, the Virginia Tech will (eventually) out-talent an experienced and well-coached Georgia Tech football squad via superior defensive health and stop-unit superiority in the front-7 and in generic terms overall. Ditto if it rains Monday night where the stronger, bigger, and more physical oLine of Coach Newsome will (eventually) take change of this contest upfront. In addition to the fact that precipitation would mess around with the pitch-discipline of the triple-option offense of Georgia Tech. Otherwise, this game is closer than you think and that is code for this being a 1 play game either way. As it has been 3 outta the previous 4 times that it has been played. As the Flex-bone offense of the Wrambling Wreck is still not a good match-up for the Gap (not individual assignment) based Bud Stout defensive set. Take thy pick…although I’m picking Tech.

OPT digits:
Right now the forecast is for rain tonight down in the New River Valley as of early Monday afternoon. Should that prove to be the case, the ceiling will be lowered on what I had expected to be a relatively high scoring and exciting game from each side. In the rain however, I know two things. First up, I’ve gotta favor the superior defense and that belongs to Bud Stout and Virginia Tech. Normally I’d favor the running team and of course nobody runs like Georgia Tech. However, in the slop that football might just get a little slick and that really degrades and retards the pitch-relationship between Qb and Halfback (A-back) at Georgia Tech.  I also favor the bigger, stronger and more physical oLine on a night made for mudders. That tells me I must favor Virgina Tech to win a soggy one down in Blacksburg Virginia on Labor Day nite!

Virginia Tech=29 Georgia Tech=18

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**