(3-2) Virginia Tech @ (3-2) UNC:

TV coverage: 12:29pm on the A.c.c.Network (or FOX for most of you)
PBP: Steve Martin (no, not that Steve Martin)
Color: Mike Archer
Sidelines: Scott “Scrabble points” Pryzywansky

Vegas Line:
UNC is a 3.5  point favorite
Over/Under=50
Money-Line: bet 2.25 to win 1 on UNC and bet 1 to win 1.85 on VT

Are you apathetic after Cincy?

Remember you  kan’t spell apathetic -as Will put it- without being pathetic in the first place.

3-2 Vah.Tech has a few things ‘rong with it; a few less things that are right with it; and a whole buncha things that are pretty middled right about now.

Middleocrity if you will.

We may even be destined to finish a very middle of the road or .5oo at 6-6.

And yet we/VT were authentically a mere 0:13 away from being 4-1.

There is that.

Instead we now have to go play in the “Tech Bowl” as UNC is calling it after a gutting L vs. the ‘Nati up in Maryland and with a very very very unhappy fan base and a coaching staff that got downright defensive and than got flat-out mad on Monday nite.

They are indeed testy and frankly speaking -pun very much intended- I hope they get worse before we get to an extremely balanced UNC football team on Saturday.  Because we’ve only played one game thus far outta five contests that would actually beat UNC out on the road.

Yup, they are testy indeed and it sure looks like the twenty-twelve final-exam just arrived about half a season early.

Top-10:

1. As in our #1 rusher is on pace to gain 506 yards this season! The last time that happened (or worse) was 1971!
2. 20. Meaning UNC opponents have already punted the football 20 more times than UNC has after only five games!
3. 53. As in VT has not scored a first-Q point in 53 and ¹/₂ minutes worth of first quarters! (MEGA BONUS: UNC has already blocked 3 kicks this season!
4. 4. Meaning UNC’s top-4 rushers all average at least 5.1 yards per carry or a first down every two touches.
5. Fifth. As in UNC is 5^th best in TFL on defense and could live in the VT backfield if we are not real careful. (NOTE: LT3 has always responded poorly to full-frontal pressure as well)
6. 46. As in UNC ranks 46^th or better (which is indeed code for at least C+) in 17 out of the 18 major D-1 football team categorizes I track. WOW!
7. UNC is getting beat by almost a full 7 minutes of TOP (Time of Possession); whereas VT is only five spots ahead in TOP at 105^th, somethings gotta give.
8. Eight. Meaning VT is ranked C- or less in 8 outta the 18 major D-1 football team categories I track. (SEE the difference?)
9. 49. As in VT already has 49 Qb hurries on the year to only 14 from UNC despite the fact that UNC is 22^nd best in Sacks whereas Bud Lyte is only 90^th? Huh? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is that?!?
10. Last. Well, ten is the last number in my top-10 list and VT is currently ranked last (or 43^rd) in others receiving votes in the Coaches Poll. I wonder who that voter could be?

Pro or Spread UNC Offense: (7 back)

• 3-4 wide Wr sets
• did see some bunch looks, and -of all things- they ran (not always a pass) to the bunch side
•  single back sets (i.e. you know who is getting the ball on the run) or a few split twin Ace sets with 2-halfbacks (i.e. one on each side of Renner)
• a little motion here and there though a much more static offense than I am used to seeing (meaning: they really trust their play-calls)
• 325 yards of total O outta Giovani Bernard in basically 2.1 games worth of play –WOW! Might not be a good idea to let this dual-threat rushing and receiving Tb of UNC get going
• not real experienced at Wideout
• lottsa envelopment blocking: mix in a tall, XL wingspan oLine with strength and you have a very efficacious front-5 on O
• very nice passing mix, S, M, and L, all worked and I could not see a pattern -pardon the pun- to it either; UNC really spreads the field both North-South and East-West when they throw the ball
• slight pass heavy tilt; right at about 4:3 pass:rush ratio when this offense is working according to schedule
• Top-3 offensive ballers in this game are all in the UNC huddle: legacy Renner (his dad punted @ VT), Bernard, and Bond

  

• Balance, balance, and more balance. Even Nadia Comaneci did not have this much balance

Basketball on grass –that’s a Utopian or dream description of what Coach Anderson wants this offense to be. Right now it is however very well balanced in terms of rushing and passing alike and we all know that Bud Fosters –above all else- carves making an opposing offense uno-dimensional. That’s gonna be a problem here; though do bear in mind that B.Renner is not a Pro-Spread Pivot (or Qb) by trade and that the rest of this UNC offense is at least another year or maybe even 2014 way as transition and then full conversion goes from Butchie’s leftover power-parts to a much more wide-open offensive set. Concurrently, one must afford head coach Fedora a cyber tip of the hat for being this good this early on while still deploying somewhat juxtaposed refugee Davis players who are generally tilted to being more parts power and less parts spread. I for one did not expect to see this imported So.Miss offense to be this precocious this early in twenty-twelve. Why is that you ask? Because this UNC offense might just deploy the #1 oLine in Atlantic Coast terms; and if they are not #1 overall they sure are big as can be. Yes, I know Gah.Tech and State may have something to say about that; although this T.Heel oLine is no less than 1a or 1b in the conversation. Take thy pick. That aforementioned “bigness” is the key here as I did not see much need for help-blocking in breaking tape. One of their guys can typically handle and occasionally whoop one of your guys and that’s a problem folks. 6`6“ 316 on average as the two-deep goes, which returns 93 starts and 8 of 2011’s top-10 with no less than 8 very highly touted players among them is a more than a problem. This UNC oLine is good on the edge and great on the inside as #65 “Bond, Travis Bond” is nothing short of a carnivorous mauler right at the point of attack. UNC has the Bernard kid last year’s A.c.c. rookie of the year back in good form at Tb and he runs much bigger than he looks. Almost looks like a much more violent D.Wilson on film. Behind him at Tb they have a thunder and lightening combination should Bernard have more knee or foot trouble in this game. Renner is only a 64% passer with a mere 7:2 passing ratio. Compare that to the present-tense LT3 at 53% and 4:3 and you see what I mean. What I saw on film of Renner is a Qb who is not a threat to run; though he surprisingly spry and just athletic enough to roll and move the pocket in lateral or spread terms at will. Who knew? Maybe Renner was a spread Qb in pocket incognito all along?

Now for the real bugbear for Bud Lyte, UNC has one Wr (Highsmith) who is dynamic and VT has 1 Cb (K.Full) who hopefully can deal with him. After that however I’m seeing a Qb (Renner) who reminds me of Tom Brady making some of the lesser New England Wr corps look good on film. Renner puts a whole lotta throws right between the numbers with a very eloquent nose-down, almost darty good throw. Renner may not have a bionic arm though its a quick release arm and the Military might wanna study his targeting capabilities. Recall I said UNC passes a bit more than they run. Well after that, and that is fueled by the 9tn best pass-blocking oLine who gives Renner plenty of time mind you; after that we see 172 yard per game rushing offense, that has been second-fiddle with it’s maestro lame and in pain all year long until now. See what I mean? What does Bud Lyte key to stop here? We are a few bricks shy of a Bud Stout load and right now I’d be happy to hold UNC to 25 or less.

4-2-5 multiple UNC Defense: (6 return)

• multiple first layer fronts
• multiple second layer fronts
• multiple third flayer fronts
• i.e. assignment football will be at a premium!
• and guess what? There are really 3.5 or maybe even 4.5 layers to all these fronts!
• lottsa pre-snap movement to compound fracture pre-snap assignment football all the more; UNC kinda has a Flex element not so subtly embedded in it
• no mater the 30 or 50 or even front, typically deploys a true Ng, which makes things mostly odd upfront
• VERY well equipped with right-size run-fighters right at the A-gap point of attack in both layers; move the Read Option at least out beyond the B-gap JIC
• that said, if properly blocked, the 4-2-5 does lend itself to 2 running seams due to having so many of the players in the hind-7 backed up most of the time; Benedict is the key here; he needs to fight #92. S.Willimas early, often and late. Gotta keep this awesome UNC middle-push outta LT3’s face when passing as well
• multiple coverages taken to the extreme; our passing tree may wanna call a logging company
• I saw off, medium and press man, I saw cover-1 though basically cover-5, and they do keep a very deep Fs (pic) who will be in play whenever LT3 goes sailing
• most curious that that very Fs (Smiley) has zero passes defended, zero passes broken up, and zero INT’s?!?
• Contrary to other reports, starters are fine; although this secondary is not very experienced in hind-5 back-up terms however

  

In watching T.Heel tape it finally occurred to me that this is really a 3 ½ – 2 ½ -5 set; or sometimes something closer to a shell-3 or shell-4 look in the rear with a walk-up Rover all over the place that UNC calls a “Ram”. The Ram is really a glorified third Safety playing a hybrid position and the ½ I mentioned above is really more parts OLb and a few less parts undersized De playing yet another hybrid position UNC labels “Bandit.” Confused yet? You should be as this is a very difficult defense to recognize pre-snap keys on and notice I did not even bother to type: this is a very difficult defense to recognize –accurate- keys on pre-snap. There will be some missed assignments here, some UNC defenders will come unblocked in the second layer and what effectively amounts to the 2.5 layer, and the third layer as well. The deeper UNC alignment means your bigger oLinemen with slower 40 speeds have a long way to go to get to UNC and UNC can prolly get to the spot faster than you.

Man this UNC defense is complex. Might be the most complex I’ve studied for TSL.com in the last handful of years and I myself need another day or so to truly pour myself into it. Not to mention more publishing bandwidth to do anything more than just service this defenses’ needs. Likewise, I’d bet Frank-n-Stiney would truly relish a BYE week or at least the Saturday to second Thursday night split to get all of this Coach Disch whacky 4-2-5 business nailed down pat. Whole lot going on here folks and just like Enzo the Baker of Godfather film fame, the recipe here is to cut this UNC cake into layers. The key is that the layers themselves fluctuate in terms of alignment and in terms of pre-snap shifts and jumps as well. If you don’t serially mind your keys and become totally pre-snap literate this UNC defense will flux you up indeed! It is also a very powerful defense on terms of the internal diamond as inside trench-fighting goes on either side (Wide or Short)

Mlb
Ng-Dt

Mlb
Dt-Ng

No matter where the UNC Dt lines up (over our right or left G) there is plenty of run-stuffing power inside and that could short-circuit our power-rushing inside-zones with some G injuries and G shuffling alike. That said, and as I said above, if you can just get those above three blocked; you can get 3-5 every time due to the second and third layer offsets from the Line-of-Scrimmage (LOS) by nearly falling forward. However, the other eight UNC defenders really do flow to the ball well enough. Although they are not on say an S.E.C. level of defensive speed; there are just so many combinations, angles, and leverages plural in play here that on nearly each and every play; someone will come unblocked. In secondary terms UNC does anything and everything. They are a little tighter outside-in; however, you can afford that when you have one of your three Safties (the freest Fs) toggled about 15+ yards deep. You will always have at least Tampa-1 deep help and that means you are perfectly welcome to feel froggy indeed and go for what you know when the ball is in the air. UNC has accomplished 5 fumble recovers and 7 INT’s thus far this campaign so Hokie ball security will be an issue and our youngling Tb’s have had some butterfingers already. Ditto the fact that this UNC dLilne really gets north-south well and will play in your backfield if you let ‘em. Finally, note that there is a tremendous sense of elevator music in play here as UNC defenders move up and down perpendicular to the LOS (line-of-scrimmage) sometimes as much as 10+ yards pre-snap; and they will shift parallel to the same as well. They blitz, they twist, they stunt, they zone-blitz, they loop, they disguise (very well in fact) and they do just about whatever you can think of pre and post-snap alike. Hokie vision, reorganization, identification will all be at a premium and this of course suggests plenty of zoning which will actually keep it simple(r) this week and you might even dabble in some quick-counts or up-tempo if your cues tell you that the initial T.Heel alignment is favorable indeed.

UNC special teams: (both back)
Very good P.A.T. and F.G.A. kicking team with yet another Barth at the place-kicking helm. Someone should go Human Genome on some of that Barth leg D.N.A. as the latest Barth (Casey) is both long and accurate and that makes #11 a real live offensive weapon. Not to mention the fact that they will go old-school swinging-gate on the kicking pre-snap alignment so you must honor the fake which denies most kick-block attempts most of the time. Recall from the Top-10 above that UNC has already blocked 3 kicks this campaign. Yikes! T.Heel Punter Tommy Hibbard is only averaging 42 and change per punt. Good leg, good hang time, all backed up by the 7^th best punt-coverage unit. What more do you want outta a true-sophomore punter? How about the fact that he was a star High School baseball pitcher and star Florida Qb alike –this brings the fake-punt into play as well. Only knock I could find on Hibbard is that he is not that big if he has to take off running on a punt-fake. KO coverage is 27^th best in the nation, so don’t expect a whole lotta room to run here either. UNC is 19^th in punt-returns as talented freshman Wr Roy Smith can move, when he actually gets around to fielding the ball. KO returns are only C+ good at 46^th best as Sean Tapley averages 22 and change which is just a tad less than the new 25 yardline touchback. (UNC special-teams letter-grade: overall, this is a pretty classy set of T.Heel special-teams folks; VT won’t get to cop a free feel here. That’s worth a A- from me, and the only thing preventing the A+ was a mild lack of return game explosiveness)

Illation, conclusion(s), and OPT digits:
This is *the* first tipping-point game since 2-2 2004 folks as we were experiencing a 2003 hangover same as we are experiencing a 2011 hangover after going 3-4 in our last 7 overall. Or in other words, get beat and welcome to the rest of your coaching life coach Beamer.

Me however?
I’m pissed off and fired up!
I do not love contact sports so much as I love conflict sports!
You wanna go boxing adage and “impose your will on me?”
<sarcasm> Pluuuu-ze do. </insert here>
I’d like to see you try in fact. As I won’t be the one talking, twitting or posting a good fight and I sure as hell won’t be helping you up with sportsmanship or any of that nobody keeps score and everybody plays nonsense either.

“Yah; I don’t know…but ah, um, you couldn’t rely on playing bad offenses every week.”
-Chris Coleman on the VT defense-

“His (LT3’s) technique has gotten outta whack a little bit.”
-Chris Coleman on the VT offense-

RACK him Will!!! Then give him a pint, no make that a fifth of Rebel Yell outta Techsideline.com.com petty cash fund as that was a pretty damn good set of radio takes from C2 this week. Droll, biting, cutting, and then he finally let go. Don’t mince words Chris; tell us how you really feel dawg! “You know?”

What I do know is that Fosters’ Monday night meltdown and Chris’ Wednesday whipping post have me fired up! I’m ready and I’ll tell you what right now … this game can not start soon enough for me. However, does the same hold true for the Virginia Tech football team and Staff that has looked underwhelmed since the OT period vs. Georgia Tech expired? Take a second and look before you leap on that one folks…

***

“Never take counsel of your fears.”
-General Stonewall Jackson-

Frankly, pun intended, I hope our players are worse than I am right now as they need to get back to being salty, acidic and bad to the bone in order to beat an UNC football team that is treating this game as their bowl game. And be this via hook or by crook; Butchie Davis -for all his gameday foibles- did not exactly leave the power-blue covert bear or understocked when it comes to raw talent.

A game like this takes a lotta sand and fortunately most years we’ve been gritty indeed.

This year? I’m not so sure? Mea Cupla, and with all due apologies to Gen.Jackson, I’m a bit phobic about this one with the UNC offensive balance and very usual defensive look.

---

That said, here is what I’m getting and normally I make intrinsic(s) like this pay-side material only. So this one is a bit hot, might wanna reach for some 50 O&M S.P.F. Mmmmmm-k? The top-down pressure has been turned up in Blacksburg. B.Taylor at least tried to turn up the pressure as well. Only thing is; what happens when you turn up the heat on lesser ingredients? I can boil toast and burn water like a lifer bachelor champ. And yet even I know ^that^ is not a good idea most time.

This is not years past when Frank calls them in and goes Brando or Sonny O&M Godfather fit-throwing on his very own dead-cat pet family vibe; and back then he still had a R.Williams, or Wilson or T-mobile or whomever to bail the Staff out on offense and at least a top-20 -or better- caliber defense. This year? Not so much, or I wish, take thy pick.

My boss Chris Coleman -who may or may not still be the mayor of St.Paul Minnesota- and I caucused this morning. Chris told me that we are either intense or that we simply play tense; or play upright if you will. Chris is right -yet again- we either rally round the O&M flag and we finally put it all together. Or we unravel as UNC is better than Cincy was when it comes to accessing raw talent on the proverbial paper. The football offices in Jamerson are a mite testy right now. Though UNC presents quite a test as well. Therefore this one lacks any and all middle-ground. Fish or cut bait. S of get off the pot.

BEST case:
This tells me that U.N.C. either walks into a buzzsaw; maybe even gets pushed into the same; if the Staff finally flips the players switch and we finally play a complete game in mutual offensive or defensive terms alike.

NOT best-case:
OR……….we play hard for a Q or so and then turn on each other and eat our own. As there is no center aisle in this Debate this week boss. As the START to this football game is critical here men –although this particular game number six start goes well beyond just this game; make no mistake on that one. This is effectively the start of the A.c.c. race and the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end. And do mark this one down good and hard gents … IF… we come unhinged @ UNC, and get beat, even by 0.00001 on the corrupt Russian judges scorecard, the rest of the A.c.c. –which has been unceremoniously under an O&M thumb since we entered way back in 2004- will go Lord of the Rings battle of Helm’s Deep and “…show us no mercy”. Should we falter or should we fail, Atlantic Coast payback will be a bitch indeed. They’ve all been waiting, begging for the chance to kick Virginia Tech good and hard when the Hokies are down.

Right now, after so many surly takes outta so many surly sources, me thinks it is gonna take a lot for UNC to put us down. UNC will know they were in a fight when this one ends somewhere at or around 4pm on Saturday afternoon. That said, as Chaucer once said…“All good things…”

“…and now you know the rest of the story.”
-Paul Harvey-

And right now if my Aunt Kim had nutz and a bolt she’d be my uncle Tim, and if this team had a little more pop in its cans we’d all be drinking Jolt.

I WELCOME reader input here…

Forecast:
Virginia Tech=25, UNC=26

“LETS GO!“

“Hokies!“

bourbonstreet**