Kentucky Derby Preview 2o23!!!

Churchill we come.

Downs for some ante-up, kicking-in, and ponying-up. Wimminz, credit cards, PayPal, and Park Place over-the-top hats rejoice. Sundress, infieldHers and fillying up to the nines to boot. This is the big one… the most exciting 2-minutes in all of sport. The sport of kings. And this year -for a recency effect change- there may be two or mo’ at least semi-princely ponies at the top. Some say: ‘several’, even. And oh, by the way… did Eye mention that this is the Sesquicentennial or the 15oth anniversary of the first leg of the Triple Crown gone triple-gold? (50th anni=gold*3), yet??? WOW! Nonetheless, what you wanna know is… who to crown with a Show bet, rights? So, read on… to finds out!

Paddock static:

• Batting Bob Baffert— my 2% boy (still); still… banned. On an extension no mo’/no less… wow. “Hi (Bye) Bob.” God Bless.
• Not quite saying Eye completely agry… tho’ the whispers around the j.Beam Red Stagg fueled campfire say that this year is: “a very top heavy” caliber of a possibly quad or even penta, good, or maybe even great field. Again; I wanna see a bit mo’… tho’… there is a 3o4 O.G. saying that goes: “Whar’s thar’s that much smoke thar bound to be some… fire.” Maybe this V.H.T. (very highly touted) pre-race 3-year-old class catches straight FIRE? Or, maybe it flames out? We shall see… tho’ most horsing-around minds say to pony up here for a handful of legit A— or better letter-graders for 2o24. F.Y.I. of course.
• For Three-year-olds, With An Entry Fee Of $25,000 Each And A Starting Fee Of $25,000 Each. Basically, jus’ finish the ’24 race and the race pays for itself. Plus, the “Kentucky Derby” name-recognition price jacking on stud fees. (Pimpin’ is, ea$y).

“…the need for speed!” —(not): Goose

Recall… Speed Figures, to keep any (potential) crowing paced… typically improve

by 3-4 points/month for most any credible Derby, Preakness, or Belmont candidate.

• January: ave.=86.
• February: ave=91.
• March: ave=94.
• April: ave=97.

Pony pickers are hawkish on waiting to see speed improvement(s) in races no.3, no,4, and no.5 outta a given horse before they will allow their purse strings to ride or die with the same. Said horse is said to be: ‘finding its stride’ or getting its sea legs under them if you will. Endlessly and West Saratoga also nearly qualify here. With: Society Man, Just Steel, Reniance, and Just a Touch are all said to be possible candidates to having peaked one race too soon.

https://production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2024/04/Kentucky-Derby-24.pdf

With Derby winners typically tallying 1oo-1o7 typea numbers. Range=limitless (in theory). Highest Derby speed ever=124 (Sunday Silence). Highest Beyer speed number all-time/anywhere=133! Had the Beyer existed way way way back when… Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes. (With ‘whispers’ saying that by some historic footage-based calculations, Count Fleet’s (1942 Triple Crown winner; and, the longest-lived K.Derby winner (33-years-young) racer ever!) Beyer speed figures might have reached 150!?!

With a K.Derby winning Beyer Par=1o3 all-time (average).

Additionally, if it precips on Kentucky we want a 32o (or, better) mudder number. ≥32o Wet rating is a must. (Data Range=o-42o).

Finally, this one, and fo’ sure the Belmont desire peeps with that Eamonn Coghlan (finishing) kick. ≥32o Dst rating is a must.  (Jim Brown’s or Magic Johnson’s number for your Ginko whatever it is called gland… Eye forget?) (Data Range=o-42o).

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So, ^^^that^^^ is what we are want to see here.
And here is what we ALREADY see for the ’24 K.Derby field:

Sierra Leone: big, muscular, long-striding modern-era right-sized candidate to be sure. Saddles: speed, pedigree and Forum Guide effects to be sure. 3 big name prep race wins: (Blue Grass & Risen Star among ’em). Shiney horse… lot to like in composite terms here. Closer. Working well this week. Can he save ground as his placement or coaching/jockeying or maneuvering have been questioned by some.

Forever Young: U.A.E. Derby star, Nipponese bred/trained entry. Said to not like ‘kickback’ or trafficking. Tho’ the earliest possible Rising Sun arrival in calendar terms and that should only speed and prolly aBET his acclimation. A relaxed-looking glider of an actually speedy horse to boot. Timely workout splits in Churchill as well.

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Catching Freedom: Louisiana Derby victor. Has really sharp 100+ Brisnet speed digits in tow. Is a stretch runner by trade… (i.e., mo’ parts 1st and prolly 3rd leg of the Triple Crown via fit). Good name recognition riddle pedigree. An interesting quadruped for what this race requires.

Fierceness: velocity-laden Beyer numbers: (100+). B-o-th as a two-year-old and again this Trip.Crown season as a 3-year-old as well. Blowout ran away and hid Florida Derby champion. Cycles through his gearing well. Versatile horsey to be sure… the apex Lamar Odom of the lot. 112. That’s a stunning one-hundy-twelve Brisnet best so far. Ditto Breeders (2-year-old) Juvenal winner.

https://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day

Stronghold: winner-winner chicken, dinner pony. Santa Anita, Sunland Derby, and he has wins on the CHD racetrack up on his trophy selfie shelf already. Has a come from off the pace closing style and this too favors the first and third goes at the Triple Crown. “Whispers” say he may be peaking at just the ‘right’ time.

-oOo-

Resilience: Wood Memorial blue-ribbon recipient. Another ‘on the come’ or improving horsey of late. Has a rarefied prep’ race sparking Brisnet figure of: 1o4, already; wow! Also courts a Churchill Downs first-place run on his résumé. Face some legit competition to do all of this too. Good if not great bloodlines, has a bit of a finishing kick too.

Nearly uppercase slight sleepers to consider…

Just a Touch: Somewhat lightly raced career 3-year-old (with a matching mere triune of runs in his lifetime thus far). All this season! Never officially raced as a two-year-old. So, he is somewhat new(er) to all of this. (Nearly) seized the fast-paced Blue Grass-like red-ribbon (2nd-placed) runner-up nonetheless. Nice breeding. Possibly the best tactical speed in the entrants. Bigger mo’ robust horse that covers a lotta ground on horizontal 4-wheel-drive length. Prolly the best mudder of the faves if the bluegrass state does not enjoy clear blue skies as well. Being asked to improve and stretch his length out at the same time here and some find that to be: A Bridge Too Far.

Track Phantom: Not quite a rabbit, tho’ a forward-facing pace-friendly runner with at least some tactical speed behind that. Holds said pace well enuff, may add blinkers to apparently try to conserve some pace/fuel is the vibe here.

Society Man (1o2) and Mystck Dan (1o1)  merit mention(s) on their centennial bettering Brisnet marks thus far. Honor Marie is the other positive slope or trending upward horse (filly) to mention here. Finally, Dornoch and Catalytic have experienced speed-number so-called: “pairings” (two races within +/- 1 or 2 digits of each other in speed rating terms: 92-93, 93-93 or 93-92 for example). And old hands say that that kinda horse could be due to breakout and ‘bounce’ upwards in the pairings case. Finally-finally, Stronghold has prolly been the most progressive horse… with the most steady state of a positive slope for his career.

F.Y.I. … some say that: Forever Young (Jpn) is the alpha-Jap’ pony of all time. Not everyone, though enough of ‘some’ that you have to take a peek. As their version of speed numbers to rate highly here (1o5-1o7, if that is legit).

Just a Touch, Stronghold are B— or so tho’ not untalented at all.

And when you add all this Beyer(ing) and Brisnet(ing) ≥1o1 or better measurements up? You can see what some figure this to be a pretty dang top-heavy field in a hurry.

Rest Not Rust:
The O.G. rule of thumb here is: not less than 30 days rest sic: between starts (ie., not enuff rest) and not mo’ than 45 days between starts (i.e., too much rust).

Accordingly: Just Steel looks plum tuckered out here. With potential positive bounces (just’ enuff rest) from: Dornoch, Fierceness, and Resilience. With potential negative bounces (not enuff rest) from: Sierra Leon and Stronghold. Curiously enuff -other than the aforementioned Just Steel, who will be making his 10th start here- everyone else is right on calendar-pace as rest/rust goes. Again… in theory… potentially.

Timing is Everything?

These are horses who have stop-watch (speed) and days off (rest) right where you theoretically want them: Dornoch, Endlessly, Fierceness, Forever Young.

The Call(s):

If you ask me -and you did via reading these very words- if you ask me… you will see one deep azz field here.

It literally has… everything.

Several bullet ‘meep meep’ sprinters. Several blenders. Several closers to boot. Plus mo’ overall speed figures than most (recent) Derby’s have figured out.

Again; this is a deeeeep field for the first time in mo’ than a little time. 20 full horse field that is at least 10 deep in some leg of the Triple Crown ready.

{sic}

Hence… could not the speedy needy (Preakness) and the distance savvy (Belmont) not be the better bet(s)? i.e., not only typically parred down fields (size-wise)— most likely two fields with far less Venn Diagram overlaps at all three levels; (Sprinters (Preakness), Pacers (all three/K.D.), Closers (Bel’)).

As you could make a just 3rd-down quick-kick and play for FIELD-position later on argument for this unusually deep of a thoroughbred year (’24) here.

However, another and a froggier way to say all of that would be to say… there sure is a rich amount of value in the double-digit range down to about the 15th or so horse or down to about 30-to-1 odds in this 2o24 Derby here.

Rich.
Possibly, very for a poignant pony-pick.

As everything beyond the Top-3 pays 10-1 or better on some pretty dang fair-to-middling value picks here.

And here is the kicker… for all the kinda swifty horses in this one? Only three, that’s only (3) Trump the 32o merely average Dst (Distance) marker in this one to boot.

So, the winner could be just Biden their pace chasing time early on…

1. Stronghold, (366), (pp=16),
2. Grand Mo The First, (333), (pp=18),
3. and Resilience, (323). (pp=19).

That’s it on paper-theory. All of that is outside/wide too. From post-position 16 out to post-position 19.

Which makes this one wonder if someone runs away and hides inside. (With enuff of a lead built-up to get by a lower geared closer(s) late; even as the sprinter’s petrol tank reads: “F” for running on fumes). Or, is some kinda lower-geared B.M.W. coupe typea horse gonna gear-jam and gear-grind its way to an epic long-range closing/gaining finish from mid-pack or deeper?