Today’s word (or term) is: the Pareto Principle[1] (or the 80-20 rule)
pə-ˈrā-(ˌ)tō
(noun)
(1906)
The Pareto Principal states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. In business 80% of your profits come from 20% of your customers. 80% of all crimes are committed by 20% of all criminals. When there are only 10 people in Champs, Chris Coleman and I (2) manage to consume 80% of the shots at the bar all by our ownselves. And so forth…
Or, in the case of the Virginia Tech secondary roughly 75% of the effects or on-field performance (could) come from 25% of the causes or in a worst case scenario from just one major starting injury outta Exum, K.Full, Bonner and Jarrett (4).
Whereby one secondary starter outta four (1/4=25%), getting nuked out and hurt for the duration, would thereby cause an effective reduction down to 75% of maximum performance in Coach Gray’s hind-4.
Or in other words, I like my crow rare, yet warm.
As I’ve got some grubbing to do for saying that the 2012 Virginia Tech offensive line was thinner than the 2012 Virginia Tech secondary is. To borrow from the epic WWII movie Midway: the Tech secondary is: “…so thin it’s damn near invisible.” There is talent there folks, though it looks to me like it is years away; plural. That’s not good and neither is this dish or marbleized crow at the moment. </gulp>
However, that’s where things lay as we near the mid-point of sorting things out as August camp 2012 goes in the Virginia Tech defensive hind-4. Where the top-3 reserve Cb’s are all 17 or 18 years old and the two primary back-ups at Rover and Fs have been moved around so much their heads must be spinning just like Michael Keaton’s was in “Beatlejuice”.
Ergo, it sure looks to me like the Secondary <<< depth <<< oLine…
These hind-4 defensive starters are good. That is to say that they are every bit as good as any 4 Cb’s can be with 2 guys starting outta-position. They all break extremely well on the football and none are risk adverse when it comes to gambling or going for the INT. Meaning they will miss on a break or two and that will cost us 10-14 points somewhere as the year wears on. Ditto Bonner and Jarret getting their feets’ wet at Rover and at Fs respectively. However, they will pick some passes off as well. Right now the all-time seasonal mark reads 27 –and mark my words; this 2012 secondary pilfers at least 20 passes this campaign and presses the 1967 squad for the all-time INT lead.
However, this is one smallish set of back-ups in hindsight, foresight and in near-sight alike. Don’t believe me? Check it out … as the recently Olympic Brits say: “…it’s all in the maths.”
- secondary seniors=0
- secondary upperclassmen=2 (Exum and K.Full)
- secondary ballers 5`10“ or smaller=7
- secondary first year players=1o
- Cb’s 177 lbs. or less=7
- Free-Safety’s 199 lbs. or less=all
- Rover’s 197 lbs. or less=all
- able to consume alcohol (legally)=2 (and only 2)
“They’ve not at that level, (they) have a long way to go…”
-Secondary coach Torrian Gray on his back-ups-
Do you see a pattern here? This 2012 secondary is talented; nobody is boo-hooing that. However, they are undersized in terms of being light in the pants and in terms of raw vertical height alike; and they are pretty dang inexperienced on top of all of that. And yet if Exum, K.Full, Bonner and Jarrett all remain upright that will make all of us no never mind. However, our Dime sets are all less gone; our Nickel sets are penny-pinchers and suddenly we have a good deal less variability schematically speaking due to have so many small-cut logs and so much unseasoned green-wood on the 2012 orange and maroon fire. Or, to put the rubber to the road and continue the analogy; if more than one if the starters go down, you will see a steady diet of burnt toast in the secondary this season. And this season fields the best set of passing A.c.c. Qb’s collectively this side of Phillip Rivers and company way back in 2003 Atlantic Coast terms –do not sleep on that folks. i.e. this is just not the year to witness any secondary attrition at Virginia Tech as the A.c.c. has about 7 or 8 Qb’s who could plum get after Coach Gray’s back-ups.
Is Mark Leal the best back-up Qb in the A.c.c.?
Frue; or mostly true.
Accordingly, here is a long overdue XXL sized shout-out to Coach Qb Mike O’Cain for nothing short of an sizzling six year streak of coaching his starter (Qb1) and his back-up (or Qb2) right on up! Did Tyrod Taylor ever regress? How about Logan Thomas? Is he worse now compared to then? This of course brings us to Mark Leal. Or the little Hokie engine that could that most other schools said could not.
Gotta give credit where credit is due and much credit is due to Qb’s coach Mike O’Cain. Coach O’Cain has been on campus for 7 odd years and his Qb1 (starter) and Qb2 (or back-up) have shown improvement each and every season under his expert tutelage.
Think about that for a moment men … did Tyrod Taylor regress? Has Logan Thomas –and his size 19 feet- taken a step backwards? Has Mark Leal showcased a lower floor or a higher ceiling than most expected? That’s nothing short of exceptional Pivot or Qb development folks and that makes Coach Mike O’Cain the exception to the rule.
However, and that praise rightfully bestowed, that does not answer our question regarding whether or not Mark Leal is the best back-up Qb in the A.c.c. The Phil Steele almanac or should I say encyclopedic preview magazine however does. Clint Trickett of Florida State (#6o outta high school) is said to be in the mix. I know some Seminole sources who say he is closer to E.J. Manuel than most think. #4o Cole Stoudt certainly has the double-helices or D.N.A. fueled genetics on his side. As yes he is related to former Pittsburgh Stiller Qb Cliff (below). Dave Shinski at Boston College surely wins the experience award. #8 Chad Kelly of Clemson by way of some guy named Jim Kelly is hands down the highest ranked high school Qb of the lot. Although it is whispered that he is a bit raw as a pure pocket passer goes and could eventually slot over on the defensive side if Pivot does not work out for him. Former Hokie recruit one Marquise Williams (above) of UNC fame is the highest ranked combo-Qb, checking in at a lofty #13 outta high school. This one surely looks the dual-threat part; his offer sheet his nothing short of a South Eastern honor-roll plus some school named Notre Dame. Now, let’s get another mea cupla outta the way right now. Did I miss a diamond in a rough back-up Qb outta the 29 guys I just scouted for this section? Yah; prolly, almost had too in fact. Though on the surface, you have one guy (Williams of UNC) who appears to indeed have a higher ceiling than Mark Leal of Virginia Tech. And one or two other guys who are no less than in the conversation vis-à-vis as well. However, none of them have been in their given program for more than a single solitary season, and by-the-bye, the back-up A.c.c. Qb’s looked rather thin this year on the whole to me. So at least in a present tense sense, I’d have to rank Mark Leal* number one as A.c.c. back-up Qb’s go albeit it with an asterisk. As Leal is the most ready to play right now; even if the Williams kid is prolly the best Qb in the A.c.c. down the road.
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August camp 2012 scrimmage#1 viewing guide:
Here’s what I’ll be looking forward to on Saturday down in Blacksburg Virginia as the first scrimmage is really designed for third-teamers and second-teamers and the ongoing evaluation thereof. Who is slotted too low? Who is slotted too high? And who might just break-outta the pack and surprise you a bit come Saturday at 4pm?
Tailback:
Easy as 1-2-3 Holmes, Scales, Edmunds maximum power punch approach to football? Holmes, Coleman and Mangus for speed or game-breaking max’ — some Heinz-57 variety sauce mixture to keep defenses off-balance with a blend of power and speed alike? Or simply opponent or need specific based football with up to as many as five different Tb’s seeing meaningful carries this year? Although I lean towards the later option; we do need to see who does what this Saturday and if all five of ‘em hold onto the rock this summer. As there almost has to be a depth-chart mover-and-shaker here somewhere; although a shaky summer camp in terms of possession integrity could foible all of that for any Virginia Tech Tb not named Holmes.
From above, the back-up secondary players. We are small, smaller, and smallest back there out on Coach Gray’s proverbial island(s) at Cb. We do have two smart looking physical metrics prospects at Rover (Cole) and at Fs (Aromire); although each of them despite their right-sized frames looks to be a year away. Not to mention the fact that they just flip-flopped positions and need time to settle in. So anything can and prolly will happen here as the depth chart battle royale otherwise known as the 2012 secondary back-ups. As they are set to begin vetting themselves with only about three weeks to go vs. the X’s and O’s steeplechase variously known as the Georgia Tech flex-bone offense as we still have lots of secondary issues left to sort out. Right now my sources suggest that there could be as many as three full t-freshmen in the secondary 2-deep and go ahead and raise your hand if you are comfortable with that one. Coach T.Gray and b’street: “we neither.”
Ditto the Wr position where the other Fuller (Kyle) really needs to keep an eye on his rear view mirror as the objects that will appear close to him go by the names of Mr. Asante, #4 Mr. Coleman, and maybe even Mr. Caleb who is said to be wanting for some pulmonary conditioning. Although the recent whispers regarding the well-being of D.J. Coles are said to be more encouraging indeed.
Punter appears to be –if you will pardon the pun- up in the air as well. Although, I am told that we now have four full-fledged and talented legs on campus one of which kicks left-footed; or with the highly unusual clockwise spin on the ball. The early feelers suggest that incumbent Punter one Mr. Branthover has been the lead-dog here of late; albeit it not by much. His height and release have both improved; although his consistency still remains inconsistent at times. Though it is also said that Frank has been smitten by the Indy kid (Hughes) who enjoys textbook perfect technique and a left-footed release; and likewise by the D.C. kid (Windmuller) who prolly has the longest leg on the team. So we shall see who does emerge just in time for the Wrambling Wreck from Georgia Tech—and yet either way, Punting looks set for a noticeable if not soaring upgrade in 2012.
Back-up oLine:
Yah; I know, you get tired of reading this and my keyboard is surely fatigued from typing it; however Harry S. Truman and I are both from Missouri on this one. Yes, the early vibes are positive ones indeed as Curt Newsome and company reportedly are edging closer and closer to playing somewhere beyond 7-deep upfront this season. That said, most of these 2’s (or back-ups) have never played much of anything. With 47 total career snaps combined among ‘em if my Ginko whatever it is called –I forget- is big poppin’. I for one wanna Eye in the Sky this oLine group good and hard and see if they pass anything more than Will Stewart’s so-called eye-test when it comes to pass blocking itself. If they do, I will be the very first one to happily give them a clean bill of ophthalmological health and therefore happily look forward to them doing work in the upcoming year.
6`7“ Logan Thomas:
All I will say here is good luck seeing Coleman, Mangus, Scales, Holmes or Edmunds behind him in the Pistol. Think about that one for a moment as LT3 will virtually cover up or outright hide the initial or jab-step of each and every Tech Tb due to his towering edge in height when viewed from a defensive line-of-sight inside the proverbial box this season. Don’t sleep on how much the towering LT3 himself can help disguise the caliber of this automatic or semi-automatic Pistol offense folks. I don’t know about you, though I favor the fox vs. the hounds in that one.
Drive safe all … and Coach God willing, I’ll see you on Saturday at the top of Section 12.
“LETS GO!“
“HOKIES!“
bourbonstreet**
[1] Pareto Principal, Wikipedia, o8.12.12, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
More on the Hokie Defense and special teams Wednesday @5pm on ESPNRadio 102.3 fm!
Proudly hosted by The Mountaineer Sport Lounge in Bluefield WV!
Good stuff B’st. Appreciate it!
Thank you Debord!
Most kind.
b’street
Leal has impressed me very fluid ,natural release great footwork looks under control. Think we are excellent at QB for 3 years . I think Cole is really coming on in the secondary and if a corner gets hurt they will put in Aromire or Cole so maybe not quiet as thin there as you think but still very little margin . OL I am confident we are going to be good just a feeling maybe real good . Secondary is my biggest concern even now we have Jarret as he has played very little we have Bonner as he has never started in this position and neither has Exum that means errors will be costly.
Good read and by the way good call on Marshall he looks good maybe breakout year
Thank you Coastal:
That credit goes to my sourcing.
They called: “Marshall, Dunn, Farris, Tyler and Asante”.
Not a starter among ’em and so far so good on all three.
As for Leal, what you are really talking about his just what a tightly compact throwing motion he has. As there is no wasted motion whatsoever in his wind-up; hence it is narrower or quicker as you astutely point out.
Cole I’ve always viewed as a C+ kinda guy with little or zero mistakes.
He may never make the game saving play all by his ownself; though he won’t allow one the other way either.
That is a good point. That is 3 guys all starting at new positions by my 36 hrs. of Calc’ and Stats at V.P.I. as well. Almost has to be a few miscommunications, or late rotations for a while until they settle in.
b’street
I am like everyone else about the thin secondary. The one thing no one is saying is that when we had our best defenses, we did not have the greatest corners. If you have a defensive line that is getting to the qb, you don’t have to cover for long. That makes an average cb an above average because of the qb rushing to get rid of the ball.
Great as always – nice Cliff Stoudt reference! You doing the double feature at Heinz Field?
Stoudt, Malone, Kruchek(sp) and before them “Jefferson Street” Joe Gilliam and #5 Terry Hanratty(sp).
Yup.
I came up on Myron Cope, I.C. Lyte, Bimbo’s pizza and then left the eventuall National Champion U.S.C. squad to go to WV and finish 24th and win a State. Go fig’ on that?
“Irony is ironic indeed.”
-Robin Williams-
b’street
Yep – I was gonna put a Kruczek pivot reference in my note – in the ‘burgh all the way up to Scott Campbell era (’88). I’ll fly back East to see the Hokies, Steelers, and Bucs in Heinz and PNC in mid-Sept. Did you see they put a Primanti Bros at the old Bimbos location? We’ll see if Lebo can get over on USC this year 🙂
@Bay: no Sir I did not?
Across the street from the Kaufman’s store?
I did not know that.
Mt.Lebanon vs. St.Claire sure is fun. I got to watch it last season on ROOT or whatever FOXPitt is calling itself now.
Whole lotta talent and coaching alike out on that field most years. I actually have a U.S.C. sweatshirt that I bought just last year from what would have been my National Championship team. They somehow found me and put me on the mailing list. I figured that was worth a one time whopping $69 dollars. Kinda nice threads actually. And when we were there there was not that much red in the uniform. More Silver and Black.
Looks like U.S.C. is ranked ahead of Lebo –early on.
http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/mt-lebanon-blue-devils-%28pittsburgh,pa%29/football/schedule.htm
b’street
@b-street – that is correct. U of Pittsburgh is a big client of mine (all the way from SF!) and I was back this summer. I saw Primanti’s fries-on-the-sammich newly opened in the Bimbo’s spot across from the artist formerly known as Kaufman’s (aka the Galleria).
Yes, I’d say Upper St Clair has a leg up this year on the Blue Devils. It’s fair to say that in my time, the Lebo teams I played on – swim and soccer teams – were above average, but not threatening any national championship (conference c-ship in Fussball, losing in states). My recollection of St Clair school colors jives with yours, as I recall black jerseys and black speedos with silver/white trim in contrast to our blue & gold (note: while swimming was never a cool sport – and Bethel Park dominated USC and Lebo in it – observing one’s female “opponents” was a plus for a hs guy and USC had a good team as far as I was concerned). MtL and USC did not play football at the time as USC was AAA then, but we’re both WPIAL Quad A now. Ahh, good times – it’s been a while.
Congrats again on the MNC! If I had one, I’d happily plunk down $69 for the commemorative sweatshirt.
@Bay:
When did they go Quad-A?
Dang.
70’s to mid 80’s is getting deeper and deeper on me every day.
TIA!
b’street
So following the 80-20 rule set up, there were only 10 people total in the bar when you both were doing 80% of all the shots?
@949:
Chris and I are wiling to do 80% of the shots no matter how many people are in the bar.
b’street
First off great article B’st. I’ve enjoyed your articles for years and really liked your appearance on Cheap Seats. I look forward to the future shows. Now for the grammar Nazi 134056. I’m getting really sick and tired of some of these uptight a-holes who feel the need to put down people any chance they get. I’m sure I’m like 80% of people who come here not expecting some English students dissertation on college football. So go start your own blog 134056 with perfect grammar albeit prolly (or is it probably, who cares I like prolly) boring and get off your high horse.
Thanks again B’st. Great work
Bred: they should take my work, C&P it into word.doc.
Look for hanging clauses; incomplete sentences; verb disagreement. Then take all the rest; do the same. Compare them. Let me know how that goes. There it is below. Proper nouns do not count as I’m not gonna dog kids out on the way there forefathers (or foremothers) elected to opine their Surname(s).
As I already have just for S’s and giggles.
Amazing how far the English language has slipped.
Although I do mea cupla that I do so enjoy having some fun at the English languages’ expense.
; )
http://www.brinkleys.org/users/tsl/Files/2012%20preview%20part%20III.doc
Thanks!
b’street
Did you ever take English Grammar and Composition, and if so were you paying attention?
Did you notice he hasn’t responded to this yet? Maybe he doesn’t understand.
Maybe you need to ask the question in the same style b’street uses.
@lap: or you could just scroll down kind Sir and see that I not only responded; I linked the composition from Word.doc with the grammar scrubber in full effect last nite. For those who wish to grade the same; by all means; please do. Might even help and help is a bigger 4-letter word than hurt. At least last time I checked. I see one error; and it’s not really an error as Word stumbles in what is called “numeric agreement” when it comes to sports publishing. Will the b’speak and b’words be going away? I’d bet the under on that one folks. The game is no longer white-bread. More parts wheat and I will cover it as it is spoken. Hell, even I do not always get what our ballers are tweeting out these days. Though that genie has left the bottle and the one thing I know about genies is they don’t like going back.
I may do this each and every week.
I’d be happy to do it fact.
Though if any of you do see any typo(s); please; by all means; point it out and I’ll happily give you props for the correction in the article itself.
(I did go “top” for “to” up above –yah; my bad on that)
b’street
I thoroughly enjoy reading each of your articles, thanks!
love it. keep it comin’, b’street.
@gig
Well thanks Sir!
Roger that.
As the Eye in the Sky debuts Monday or thereabouts after scrimmage#1.
b’street
B Street, I am a bit disturbed by the air of tremendous caution in your voice, or the voices that talk to you. I, too, am a firm believer in numbers, and causal probabilities. I would love to have some Big Boys like Kam Chancellor and Justin Hamilton roaming the Secondary, converted tall QB’s. Hopefully the DLine will ratchet up the Pressure when needed, and make No Man an Island, especially our Shrimpy ones. Fla. State and their Big Receivers like Greg Carr, and your Favorite Dakoty Fagg, used to give us fits. I’m thinking that this OLine is gonna surprise some people, I am most Optimistic. They are huger than in the past, they can’t all be Fat Sissy Boys. As for the rest of your insightful ramblings, We’ll see . Logan Thomas and his unproven Stallions and brand new Receiver sets, the tremendous Weight of the Hokie Nation on his shoulders, we do have a lot of big Ifs. It’s gonna come down to the D, the hopeful return of Beamer Ball, and keeping Holmes away from the Tattoo Parlor. Can he take a Hit better with all that Ink, for God’s Sakes. I don’t have any, and I hate gettin hit.
@1173:
Ha-ha. We do have a few pint sized diminutive ones; or “shrimpy” ones as you say back there. Yah; those big-boys are gonna be a tall match-up for us to size up against for sure.
The key is the secondary health.
The starters are not exactly large beyond Exum.
Though the rest are several notches below them not named Cole.
This will be interesting as well as runs up the gut go.
I wanna see how Bonner and Jarrett handle 225+ Rb’s this year.
Boy Holmes does have some ink –doesn’t he?
Me thinks R.Williams started that madness and then took it over the to with his 20-30 something body piercings /w0w!
b’street
Trying to read that article gave me a headache! It’s not worth the time.
I’ve tried to participate in these attempts to be educated, but he seems more interested in how he says something than what he actually has to say.
Thanks but no thanks. I’ll take a pass from now on.
.
The writing style makes me think I’m reading Alice in Wonderland. Have to ask myself “What the heck did he just say ?” about 90% of the time. Only thing I got out of the article is that we have a lot of players who are short in height, very light in weight, and have very little experience (especially in the defensive backfield). Beginning to think that bourbon street needs to drink either more (or less) bourbon before his writing spasms start.
Logical conclusion: We’re going to have a lot of problems against a Georgia Tech team whose entire first string (except for three Juniors) is composed solely of Seniors when I last checked a couple of weeks ago.
You just insulted Lewis Carroll.
Don’t know what else to say – b’street compared to classic literature ?
@OldCorps: I do suspect that the Gah.Tech game is about a 1 play game either way. They have a whole lot back on that offense and it is the most explosive offense P.J. has ever fielded for the Wrambling Wreck. They have a buncha Wingbacks or B-backs who can flat out motor on the second or third option once they turn upfield and the Fullback is a converted option Qb himself. So he can run quite well in his own right.
You make an assignment based mistake vs. this 2012 Georgia Tech offense and they will be off and running.
Georgia Tech has always gotten between 17 and 26 on Bud.
So you know VT needs no less than 18 to win.
And thank you for reading kind Sir.
b’street
Bourbon Street is a deliberate Skewed Slant on all things Hokie, and I enjoy his schtik-and I am not Jewish. Most of all he says, I can glean what he is saying, it’s good stuff. You prim Prigs need to lighten up, he is a Challenge, so get over it. When it comes to Bourbon Street, you have to have some Street. You nerdy Engineers just don’t get it, Yaw should have been a Poly Sci or a History Major, like me. Go Hokies, and Go our Main Man and should have been one of my Professors Bourbon Street!
Thank you rainy!
And FWIW…………is a nerdy engineer————>b’street**