Tech Thoughts: Kentucky Derby preview, Mayweather Pacquiao preview:

Yes yes, by all means, we still have plenty of Virginia Tech football (and even some stray hoops) to get to.

Q. However, riddle me this…
…is this the best sports weekend of the year???

A. Yes, yes it is.

As this Saturday we are blessed by a loaded looking Kentucky Derby field, N.B.A. and N.H.L. play-offs in full swing; regular season M.L.B., the P.G.A. is only playing its World Championship of Golf, to go with some W.T.A. and A.T.P. tennis action, and something called the N.F.L. Draft!

And oh by the way, unless you live under a rock, or have recently been hit in the head by a rock, there is some little ditty called Mayweather vs. Pacquiao on tap.

You may have heard of it…

(and oh yes, I threw in a couple of VT football scoops here-in-there to please the masses as well)

2015 Kentucky Derby:

Finally, a loaded K.Derby field has come back to Churchill Downs!

As any (credible) horse-head could possibly make a likewise credible case, that there are surely two, and possibly as many as three to five Triple Crown contending worthy horses in this 2015 field alone! And just ask 1978 (Affirmed) just how long it has been since we could credibly say that?

Credibly speaking, and as you can see, this is a top and a medium heavy field. Or a bimodal or two-hump skew to the good; possibly even to the great. However, my high(est) spreadsheet numbers were only 4.25. Some of you will already recognize that typically the (presumed) Alpha horse will be more in the neighborhood of a 4.75 or occasionally a 5+.  I’m as high as anyone on Dortmond and Carpe Diem –who would nearly be my spreadsheet fave with a more favorable Post (position).  I’m a little lower on race betting fave American Pharoah and I’m higher that nearly anyone on Materiality.

If playing race chalk (track: parlance for betting faves) or clapping erasers and polishing apples is just not your thing? I proffer the pony’s Frosted and Firing Line as medium odds plays.

Or in other words, for the very first time in the 13 year history of this spreadsheet, I can make a pleasing -if not outright credible- case for no less than 6, possibly 7 horses if you throw Danzig Moon in there as well (as this horse has not quite honored its awesome bloodlines thus far, or at the very least, not yet).

Observe as well my distance or closing late runners marks were uncharacteristically Bluegrass low. That tells us this one is all about the early pace. As someone could in theory sprint out to an early to mid-race lead with less tactical fear of being run down from behind than in most other years. (NOTE to self: beware of this come the Belmont) This also however disappoints me, as I’ve done very well with Show betting on K.Derby endurance funded horsing around in the past.

Me personally? I’ll be parlaying Dortmond, Am.Pharoah and Materiality all three to Show (finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd) with the boxing sides below. I’ll even throw Frosted and Firing Line in there to Show as well, as their price at 15:1 or better on Friday morning is indeed right. So take thy best shot, and as Newt likes to say: “May the horse be with you.”

As this Derby is truly up for grabs and this years Derby –at least on spreadsheet paper, has all the makings of an thoroughly -see: the breeding pun- of a thoroughly entertaining and climatic race, potentially even an altogether classic.

Floyd “money” Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny “pac-man” Pacquiao:

 

Finally, the biggest prizefight this side of Ali vs. Frazier I has been made!

Though who you gots?

As Las Vegas has Mayweather as basically a 2:1 fave and Pacquiao as the slight dog in this one.

“It is no secret that Mayweather works with beautiful precision — that he is a sweet scientist. And it is no secret that Mayweather has been accused of seven separate assaults against five different women that led to citation or arrest.” –Louisa Thomas, ESPN–

And least we forget, Floyd -money- Mayweather commissioned his very own $25,000.oo gold and diamond filled custom fitted mouthpiece for this particular fight.

And yet Floyd is occasionally likewise plagued by reports of extravagant gifting, paid shopping sprees, and even literally throwing numerous upon numerous or thousands of dollars worth of 100-dollar bills right up into the air for whomever to scramble to secure the same, in a sudden and unscripted social venue cash-booth or sorts. A fiscal and sometimes physical  sporting version of the literary Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde; if there ever was one.

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On the other hand –and be this fair or otherwise folks, we encounter the far far less documented by the Western media; we find the routinely allegedly P.E.D. using Manny Pacquiao, he also of the self-confessed extra-marital womanizing, sin-product owning (Filipino casino), gambling, heavy drinking, and not so talented when it comes to singing or basketball playing, moonlight Filipino Congressman or one Pac-Man himself now gone Religion as a born again Christian. (Which I applaud. Leopards>>>spots)

Now, and all that less than moral high ground dealt with and fully covered, least we forget … it is typically we in the 4th estate, or the sports media, who are guilty of one recycled sin. It is we, and not the ones we are privileged to cover, it is we who are guilty as charged when it comes to being a published or spoken amusement or theme-park fun-house mirror for society, as it is we who ultimately exaggerate the best and worst in all men.

Well, unless of course we …don’t.

As that is exactly the case in this  larger than life or once in a lifetime match-up that is generically being painted as the overtly brash self-styled bad boy Floyd … vs. … the clean-cut reborn family man choirboy otherwise known as Manny. Each stereotype is simultaneously accurate — and simultaneously hyperbole. I’ll leave it to the reader to assign proper weighting to which competing all-time reputation is more deserving. That being said, it is a polarizing fight, par excellence, bar none, full stop. Even the casual fan seems to engender a strong opinion on who will win, or at least who you should root for, or against; and strongly, for this one. And no matter what happens, Boxing needed this one like a dead man needs a coffin. Make zero mistake on that.

Official Vegas Odds:
Mayweather-19o (bet $1.90 to win $1)
Pacquiao+17o (bet $1 to win $1.7o)

The skinny:
In this particular fight, the combatants are duking it out for the $1,000,000.oo plus valued W.B.C. newly commissioned so-called Emerald Belt (see: pic).

And said belt is well named, as it truly contains over 3,000 individual emeralds, and over 1 kilo (no, that’s not a typo) over 1 kilo of  24k pure gold!

Or in other words……..how much more could there possibly be on the line in this one?

Though who will win? This is what you want to know…

Several feasible outcome prime drivers come to mind; as manny, I mean as many, as 5 come to mind; to be exact…:

• Floyd successfully counters Manny: this is Floyd’s stitch, his M.O., his comfort zone, his signature shoulder-roll defense turned sudden countering right-hand offense version of self  perfection. And guess what? Manny is vulnerable here, and if you don’t believe me just ask the face-first canvas out like a light face-plant that Manny did three fights ago vs. the countering machine-gun otherwise known as Juan Manuel Marquez. There is indeed a credible chance that money-May could clip the darty Pac-Man jumping in, or on a straight line when he bounces back out.
• Floyd simply figures Manny out and frustrates (or times) Manny better and better later on: this too is part of the professional signature of any epic counterpuncher; although it can cede early rounds while Floyd gets Manny’s timing (i.e. precisely when to counter punch) down pat. This may lend itself to a Mayweather victory; albeit it a narrower one.
• Fight ends in a Draw: (this line has dropped ever since the day it opened | and that tells you and Fox Mulder something right there)
• Manny simply goes volumetric on Floyd: by that I mean… judges seem to enjoy and tend to reward the most offensive fighter or the fistic aggressor. The man who sets the tempo and tries to make the fight. Clearly that is a seldom -if ever- seen version of Mayweather Jr. and there are times when Pac is a perennial whirling dervish of pure leather.
• Manny’s unorthodox oblique to acute geometry plus Manny’s hand and foot speed, gives Floyd pause: I won’t deign to insult the collective Mayweather corner gone squared-circle boxing I.Q. by saying this gives Floyd fits. It may however be heretofore unseen because it is in point of fact heretofore unseen. As in … since half past when has Floyd been in with a guy with this much angularity, plus a virtually matching hand-speed, a possible foot-speed advantage, and this much wattage from each side (L & R)? I’d say oh about half past never, more or less.

The Fight:
Well, to me, and for my, well, “money”, this one is all about the old-school real estate adage of: “location, location, location.” Or more directly spoken, who has the better remaining past their prime yet mutual future Hall of Fame legs? However, it is also about timing, and as we all know timing is: everything.

This one is a 1977 Ferrari vs. a 1978 Porsche. Two all-time high end cars in a supercharged race that is more parts sprint and (hopefully) even more parts epic finish. As you and I can each make a very valid case for the slightly sleeker more streamlined Mayweather Ferrari every bit as well as you can make a case for the slightly more powerfully compact Pacquiao Porsche.

I for one suspect this one is won late, and won by whichever man has more horsepower remaining under their partially aged hood. (and I posit that we should all bet the over on there being plenty of water-cooler material for Monday morning Qb’s to debate regarding who really won a split decision or a majority decision fight, come your arrive @work, on o5.o4 AM)

Gentlemen, start your engines!

(the takeaway):

1. Pacquiao points handicap+20½ -3oo
2. Mayweather Jr. points handicap+6½ -37o
3. Either fighter knocked down+17o

Then…

Mayweather Jr wins split decision+85o
Mayweather Jr wins by majority decision+165o

Pacquiao wins by split decision+115o
Pacquiao wins by majority decision+235o

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The Call:
I did favor Manny’s legs early on in my investigation of this fight. Better legs, or just more legs left, and this from an awkward guy in the first place. However, I’ve now moved to basically an even or a pick ’em fight. As there is a lotta noise on the Vegas strip about how much Floyd cut out nightlife wise, party hosting wise; …that and you do not buy 145 bottles of mega-high-dollar champagne and go ahead and drop the coin tobook your very own all-in all-out victory bash on the strip just because you feel like you are gonna get beat.

Only caveat I offer is did Mayweather over-train any? 6 hour 2-a-days at age 38 is asking a lot. Hell’s bells, it’s pretty much asking a lot of a top fighter a decade younger. Never mind from a guy less than a full 2-iron removed from Middle Age. As it is emphatically clear that each side wants this one, and they want it, DESPERATELY, not just badly.

Pac’ via split decision is my rubber meets the road pick to extend the sporting metaphor above.

The best Boxing website in the world bar none……….and a truly A+++ Summa Cum Laude level preview!

VT hints, whispers and vibes:

• Minor matters, as someone heard that ‘back R.Minor was making some mid to late spring practice noise down in the New River Valley. Seems like the game finally slowed down for him a bit.
• Someone also heard the one thing that potential breakout rookie year Tb McMillian truly lacks is playbook and/or assignment reps.
• Who is the Cruiserweight Wyatt Teller on this football team you ask? Well for my money it surely is Ryan Malleck. Malleck is strong like bull for a Te folks! I mean he (almost) has threatening grizzly bear like arms upstairs, same as Teller. If either of these two get their paws on you? You are going night-night, in a hurry.
• Staff was not very high on the leftover or elder statesman Wr’ing depth. (gonna be a lotta Fb’s and Te’s masking agent work here, which could actually creates non-textbook match-up foibles in our favor)
• Coach Loeffler finally knows his very own mailing addy. As his mind is football and nothing less football 25/8. (not a mere mortal 24/7 like the rest of us)
• A.D. Whit is a big history buff and thrives on learning and exploring the history of the VT.edu campus and buildings alike.
• Should have the indoor facility fully paid for this summer, possibly occupying it by July.
• Hoops attrition is finished. Should be playing a pat hand now. Any JuCo help arrival is iffy, at best.
• Gallo, Brewer, Dadi and Rogers. These are guys who would play Professional football for FREE. They love the pure essence of the game that damn much.
• Staff does like 2015, Staff likes 2016 all the mo’!

Virginia Tech=a great great spring! Saturday o5.o2=a very promising weekend indeed.

“LETS GO!”

“Hokies!”

bourbonstreet**