#29 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #80 R.P.I.  Notre Dame:

Virginia Tech football -FINALLY- gets to play Notre Dame, in … wait for it, in the game of, I believe it is pronounced: “football”!

Precisely what we needed to pick this tired looking team back up mentally –or so we all hope.

I for one welcome playing Notre Dame, @Notre Dame, in Lane, on Mars. So what? We’ve been waiting for this rotational game for how many years now? Thing is… once I started reviewing my pre-season magazines’, I occurred to me just how highly ranked a now four up and six down or .4oo and quite literally right up against their post-season margin of error Notre Dame truly is. And this segues use neatly into today’s word of the day…

Today’s word of the day is… frangible

fran·gi·ble

(frăn′jə-bəl)

Head Coach: Brian Keith Kelly: age=55, (4-6 this year; 112-51 overall); has a rep’ for, harshness. Seriously, this from wiki: “Kelly was previously head coach at Grand Valley State University (1991–2003), Central Michigan University (2004–2006), and University of Cincinnati (2006–2009). As of October 13, 2016, Kelly has more wins than any other active coach in NCAA Division I. He is considered one the the worst losers in all of sports.” WOW! Kelly is also considered to be a defensive mind, having been a Lb at Assumption College his ownself. He is from a Beantowne (Boston, Mass.) well known political family. And he is also a… winner; with two D-1aa NC2A titles, no less than nine conference titles in total, and no less than a whooping 13 Coach of the Year awards. Six of which are national, including the quadratic consensus sweep of D-1 Coach of the year in 2012. Kelly is also known for a high graduation and federal government rate. Making Kelly the only coach to achieve Top-10 standing in each category in the same season since 2005. WOW some more. The Kelly coaching tree has -already- spawned six different college football head coaches. WOW a lot! (Kelly even sounds a little bit like coach-Fu’ in audio files at first glance)

Irish 2015 record: 10 up 3 down, less their starting Qb and Tb mind you — (one of three D-1 Independents)

Notre Dame Defense: (starters back=5)

• Out, or terminated at will was opening day D-coordinator (Brian VanGorder, may St.Xenia Patroness of Singles and Employment, Bless).
• In, is former defensive analyst: Greg Hudson as current defensive coordinator.
• 39th in total D. 77th in run D and 15th in pass D.
• 28th in Red Zone defense.
• 88th in Tackles for a Loss (TFL) and a mere 114th in Qb’s sacked!
• And yet… 14th highest in Defensive Explosiveness!
• 5th best in Rushing IsoPPP!

  

• Defense wilts a bit from 26th in Q1 to a Q4 S&P+ of a below average 76th.
• 82nd in dLine Havoc. One starter returns (Ng, towering 6’7” 330 lb. r-Sr. Jarron Jones) and this is a big ole physical dLine as thee of the four Irish front-4 go 291 lbs. or better.
• 33rd in Linebacking Havoc. One starter returns here as well (James Onwualu) as the Irish front-7 departed a bunch of kids last year. That said, Lb -same as dLine- is physically stout, with all starters representing north of 6’3” and 237 lbs. Ran better than expected on film. More like big S.e.c. movers as opposed to large BIG-10 plodders.
• A lowly 113th in Secondary Havoc. The book says that the ND secondary is high on talent, albeit low on experience entering 2016. 19 combined true-freshmen starts here would seem to agree. On top of that, two different Irish hind-4 members have three combined A.c.l. tears between them; Lord have mercy! Clearly this his the Fu’fense target for this week and the lackluster Irish pass-rush has done this hind-4 no favors; none whatsoever. Edge guys played the man not the ball more often than not.
• ND runs a base forty-three, though it industrializes a true Ng head-up or outside-eye to outside-eye. Or in other words Gallo is in some trouble here.  Coverage was softer (off to medium and less press) man-to-man than most. Though ND must feel pretty good about their hind-7’s speed to afford ceding this much real estate. There was some Qb or Rb shadowing/spying from the ND second-layer and delayed blitzes off the same; though still, this is more of a keep everything in front of you, umbrella everything and out-athlete you sooner or later halt-unit scheme. Lb’s will stack making them harder to reach on scrape blocks; Fs will offer tirade help on the Will or wide-side. Did remind me a bit of Pitt, as I saw the ND Cb’s get beat on several in-line go make a play jump balls. Tackling was solid, best I’ve seen in a few weeks if not outright great.

Defensive letter-grade:

Irish Offense: (returning starters=3)

• 4th best in Power Success rate!
• 58th in Total O. 80th in run-game and 43rd in throw-game.
• 65th in Sacks allowed and a solid 25th in TFL allowed.
• ND has four runs >43 though no runs >59. Some current electricity here, just not mega rushing high voltage.
• However, a staggering eight, that’s (8) different guys average 12.3 per catch or better! And half of them average 15.4 per catch or more!
• 6’4”, 233 lb., DeShone Kizer is Qb1 for the Fighting Irish; although he was Qb2 to begin last year prior to Zaire’s broken ankle (God Bless). He is a 60.5% thrower and has a likeable 22:8 passing ratio this year. He does look just a scosche like the current sitting Prez of the USofA. He was ranked 161st by 247Sports and 263rd by Scout.com. Better than you or me, though not quite what you’d expect of ND’s Qb1. Solid scholastic dual-threat numbers, though south of epic itself. DeShone is hitting a few longer plays this year; although his passing percentage is down nearly 4% from last year on top of that. Has improved his Pivot play after an ugly early October slump. Will move/roll the pocket, can run effectively if not entirely often. Pretty good clean-up hitter his high school in baseball; so there must be some power here. Does quick-kick Punts; so prepare for that. Opens with a 195.3 1Q rating; that drops every single successive quarter after that, to a low of 122.1 rating in the forth. That strikes me as a clutch baller; not. Is likewise 17 rating points lower @home than away; go fig’ on that one? Although Kinzer has amassed 440 on the ground despite being sacked 18 times this season.
• Josh Adams is a 6’2”, 220 lb., Jr. year Tb1. Josh has accumulated decent to solid numbers when carrying the mail for South Bend in two seasons as Tb1, almost 1,500 in 1.7 years says so. Although his numbers are down a bit of late as ND has been forced to throw more to catch up. Josh has 18 grabs himself, and he typically hovers between ~70 and ~100 yards rushing most contests. Pennsylvania high school player of the year two seasons ago; 18th ranked Rb by 24/7 scholastically. Missed most of his Jr. H.S. year (knee); still busted 4K rushing in high school however. Had Linebacking offers in addition to Rb, so I doubt toughs are an issue here. Overall, ND has three Rb’s >299 yards rushing, and four Rb’s >2o1 yards rushing or a combined 1,6o6 on the ground thus far this campaign.

  

• Pass catching corps has a lotta vertical stretch to it, very Notre Dame Qb gone A.F.L. “mad bomber” Daryle Lamonica late 1960’s to mid 1970’s Al Davis era Oakland Raiders. This team nearly always has one deep combination route per passing play tree and sometimes they are all medium and beyond {sic: routes}. 6’1” 195 lb. Sr., Torii Hunter Jr. -yes he is the son of the Minnesota Twin- and 6’4” 2o5 lb. super soph. Equanimeous St. Brown -cool name- lead the way here with nearly 100 grabs and 1,400 yards between them. 6′ 181 lb. t-fresh. Kevin Stepherson puts the vertical (19.7 ypc) in the vertical game and ND has 3-4 other handsy guys after that. (with: NO Wr rushing attempts here)
• The Irish oLine was a bit of a spring-ball and August camp concern. 6’5” 333 lb. mauling good left-G, 6’5” 325 lb. Quenton Nelson however, is not. This kid is a Sunday pro’, when, not if. The Irish oLine is towering -if nothing else- with 80% of the oLine north of 6’5” in stature and in excess of 310 lbs. when tipping the Toledo’s. 6’9” 310 lb. three year starting blindside Ot Mike McGlinchey looks like an N.b.a. power-forward who decided to eat a Denny’s; and then went back for more. Largest oLine we will see all year; decent at forming and maintaining a U shaped passing cup and a downright solid B+++ vs. the run. 100% all upperclassmen, which block well downhill on angular zoning.
• I saw a lot of three and even four wide sets here from the ‘Gun with a single Hb. Qb works the whole field, well. More to this passing game than just north-south throws as there was a medium depth horizontal combination routing to be seen as well. Though this passing set does require a bit more pocket time due to greater north-south throw depth. ND does have some bunch or double Te sets, in particular in the red zones. The Rb Adams has a real nice deflecting low to the ground bounce off of contact style to his game; epic balance and core strength this #33. oLine had the insalubrious bane of fundamentalist everywhere airplane wing look at times. Real nice arm on the Zizer kid, although he does miss long when he misses, note to F’s everywhere.
• 53% run:pass 47% mix. (almost perfect balance, umpossible to key) That said, ND graduated four studs at Wr last year — and therefore returned a mere 20% of their 2015 catch-game this year.

Offensive letter-grade:

Domer’s Special Teams: (both return)
Notre Dame has had three kicks blocked thus far and it shows. It shows in place-Kicker Justin Yoon’s 2016 campaign. Yoon is a 5’9” 190 lb. t-sophomore, who was merely ranked as #1 kicker in the nation by 247Sports and the #2 kicker by ESPN coming out of high school. And here’s the, well, kicker… Yoon has made every single FGA this year, that he has not had, blocked. A perfect 13 for 13 on non-blocked FGA’s! He does have two point-after-try (P.A.T.) misses as well; though still. You do not rate the kicking gold medal just because you suck upon entering college. His father (Jiseop) is a former Olympic figure-skate for Korea and Justin has had a history of back-troubles. He has a long of 52 for South Bend on 88% this season and yah; this kid -Coach God and his back willing- is probably a Pro’ once he leaves as he has been starting ever since Touchdown Jesus day one.

Tyler Newsome is the Irish’s punter. He goes 6’2”, 210 lbs. as a t-Jr. and he sports a Greg Brady fro’. Tyler can place-kick if need be courtesy of a pretty big leg. His ~44 ypp average says so though his punt coverage squad (123rd best) say otherwise as Ty’ is currently 107th in Net Punting accordingly. Ditto having two punts sent back in his face this season.

The Irish return game is strong however, 37th in punt returns and a rocketing (pardon the historic pun) 16th best KO returns great for 12 points scored thus far. Might wanna get a blocker on Jarron Jones, as #94, all 6’6” pear shaped 3o4 lbs. of him leads the nation in kick blocks this year. N.Dame is a pedestrian 56th in KO coverage this year.

N.D. Special Teams letter-grade: (sans the FGA’s blocked, this is a very good very talented ST’s squad, probably an A— if that has been fixed)

X-factor(s):

• motive: the Domer’s are fighting for their bowling lives and this will not affect anything A.c.c. for us. EDGE=ND.
• weather: looks Harvard of the Mid-West November blustery to me. Possibility of a wintry-mix. Major check-mark to the Irish in retarding our throw-game advantage. EDGE=all ND!
• health: other than Cb (3 guys out for the year); ND does not read too bad here, and VT looks pretty dinged-up to me. EDGE=ND.
• penalties: ND is average in penalties and this gives VT a smart advantage in yellow laundry and hopefully hidden field-position here. EDGE=VT.
• intangibles: ND is a impoverished 1o2nd in Turnovers; VT is not epic here although VT is 33 spots better. EDGE=VT.
• fatigue: As ND has played one less game than we have since 1o.15.  EDGE=ND.

 

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is… that the arrests of six players during the preseason probably got Notre Dame off on the ‘rong foot –this from a team that nearly all of my pre-season warps had forecast to win 10 games and be a Top-10 football team with a summertime apex of #4. And yet .4oo football at the moment is pretty far removed from any Top-10 that I know of. Still, as you know, all-time football factories like 11-time National Champion Notre Dame do not recruit, they select. And as you know some more, rain is rumored to be wet and the Irish have plenty of **** and ***** or four and five star guys. As the gridiron at the omega D-1 football school had might as well be the fourth credit hour in any NotreDame.edu astronomy class most seasons. Consequently, do not cry for Argentina nor a .4oo Notre Dame.

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That pigskin literary Twain or Stephen Crane the glass is twice too large Realism firmly in hand –I’m forced to wonder out loud if this game is not so much decided down on the ground; as it is, up in the air. What if old-man Winter rolls up his November sleeves and some blustery, freezing wet weather plum gets after us? As I would favor our/Virginia Tech’s throw-game on a pleasant enough aerial track; and yet this one is vectoring all ‘rong for the finesse oriented Fu’Fense… check it out…

1. The most recent 3-game trends paint a picture of two ships passing in the night, as VT has softened by 64 ypg allowed in our last three scrums; whereas the ND defense has stiffened by 66 fewer ypg allowed in their last three clashes.
2. On top of that the Irish power-rush game has amped up by +25 ypg in their last three contests; whereas ours has contracted by -27 ypg in our most recent three.
3. Further, our handy dandy friend the so-called Forum Guide of Graham Houston fame predicts a 7 point Irish triumph when common opponents are taken vis-à-vis head-to-head.
4. …and in the two games I watched, ND was wearing gold, slippers. Seriously?!?

Or in other words, despite the virtual symmetry of all of ^that^, I gotta say, Virginia Tech is the better football team here. Or at least Virginia Tech was the better football team about two to three weeks ago. Then something happened along the way to the 10 win O&M candy-store. Film study accrued, that harsh tag of three games in 12 days took hold, and four away contests in five games and a slew of real -and unpublished- dings and dents (finally) caught up with us.

Now we see the one true O&M match-up advantage -Tech’s throw-game vs. the flimsy Irish secondary- besieged by old man Winter his very own self. That makes our formerly favorable outcome probability frangible, in a word. Nevertheless, so is the Irish applied sports psychology, as yours would be too after being beaten by a full play or less in 100% of your L’s and 50% of those have been by a half play (three points) or less.

So something frangible is gonna give here, either the Irish head-game or the Hokie throw-game. Tough one to call on a hot chocolate and hot tailgating soup favoring day; and although I’m in-specific as to how to spell out how Tech is gonna get this one done… I’ma gonna pick Virginia Tech to win in a basically pick ’em football up in South Bend; on a steel-gray got out-gained day, when we it something big or we hit some kinda fluke (play), someway, somehow, …late.

upset Index=50%

Virginia Tech=21, Notre Dame=2o

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**

V.A.D.A. approved