Your 100% FREE-view Appalachian State game#1 preview:

Appalachian State @ #13 Virginia Tech:
TV coverage: 12:30pm, Saturday on the ACCNetwork and ESPN3
Vegas Line: point-spread VT-25.5,
o/u=off,
$-line: VT is a 45:1 favorite, Appy.State is a 16:1 underdog

To S.E.C. or not to S.E.C. –that is the question.

With the normal pre-game dash of uniform threads, sugar cookies and endzone painting thrown in for good measure. That’s what techsideline.com is all about at the moment with less than 48 hours worth of moments to go before the 2011 Virginia Tech Hokies make their on-field debut.

“I don’t know” is my official response to all of this So.Eastern hysteria that at times boarders on paranoia. However, I do know that things like this (and which uniform the Hokies will wear) will show their true colors one way or the other soon enough. I call it the Splitter Effect,  as the truth has a way of making its way to the surface; one way or the other.

Or to borrow on the 1943 WWII propaganda driven Air Force film:

“Can you keep a secret?”
Crew chief nods yes.
“That’s good.”

Yes, that’s about where all of this S.E.C. business is at the moment as each source I ask changes the party story-line in a most secretive almost daily in a situation that can only be described as being flux.

Flux all of that I say, as game preview #1 and the Official Prediction Thread are set to open for some 2011 business. Or in other words as Dr. Issani once told me at Virginia Tech: “…don’t worry, be Hokie” as we get down to some real live objective on-field brass tacks as Virginia Tech hopes to tack on its very first season opening win in four years vs. #2 ranked D-1aa Appalachia State on Saturday afternoon down in Blacksburg, Virginia.

Appalachian State offense: Spread, 3 or 4-wide, multiple (12 starter return)
A, B, C? More like X, Y, Z, and M, as the four starting Appy.State Wideouts go and this is one single back spread-set that plays with some D-1 if not N.F.L. swag’ (short for swagger) indeed folks. Take a look at eight, as in #8 Brian Quick in the screen-cap on the right. That’s the best Wr on the field according to most Pro scouts dunking the football as a left-hander after hauling in a scoring bomb from #2, the Qb that some will argue is actually the best Qb on the gridiron on Saturday one #2 DeAndre Presley of Appalachian State.

In breaking 2010 film on the App’s offense, it became clear in a hurry that this is one wide freakin’ open offensive attack. Nothing is too taboo as play calling or alignments go as saying this Spread offense operates from multiple sets is like saying that rain is rumored to be wet. Among the numerous signature things that I did detect, the following stood out to me in film-study on of Coach Moore’s offense.

Smaller oLine? Sure is, as the five offensive line starters that you will see line-up for Appy.State on Saturday all weigh in at 285 lbs. or less. In fact they only average 280 per man. However, you will also most likely see the widest splits out of this Mountaineer offensive-line all year on Saturday to help spread any larger defensive linemen out and create better blocking geometry or angles for Appy.State. You will also see a whole lotta pulling as oLine technique itself goes. Just watch the two Appy.State Guards, wherever they go is where the play is going a good 80% of the time or better. Well, unless of course it doesn’t, as I saw some downright nifty cut-back or counter looks from the Appy.State Tb (Tvaris Cadet) or Presley himself to the back-side of the play which will puts a premium on our rookie De’s maintaining back-side containment and playing under control. Watch for any version of a Qb Draw from Presley when Appy.State goes to a 4-wide Te set with an empty backfield as I was most impressed by this kids top-end speed and acceleration downfield. If two breaks free, he is gonna be tough to catch. Think of the J.M.U. Qb last year and now think of a maxed out or really supped up athlete on a variety of Read Options or Qb keepers doing helter-skleter jitterbug kinda work. That’s Presley of Appy.State; all 5`11“ and 170 odd pounds of him. Further, I saw a curious tendency to sprint for the goalline pylon that presumably would have to be coached whenever an Appy.State ball carrier broke loose in the open-field. Such creates the best or widest possible angle of pursuit even if it also lengthens the jaunt for the Appy.State runner itself. Up front I saw nothing less than great footwork and quicks outta this Mountaineer oLine and they were a stellar 6^th best in sacks allowed during 2010 on 343 attempted passes by Presley last season. As passing goes these Appy.State Mountaineers use the entire field, and they will sucker you in by throwing medium to long early on only to set up a single dump-off pattern underneath if the 3-4 medium to longer patterns are not there in the first place later in the game. In short, although undersized by D-1 A.c.c. or B.C.S. standards, this F.C.S. football team has some very handsome play-makers at Qb, Wr, and Hb alike and is the best coached offensive unit we will see in 2011 this side of Gah.Tech.

Appy.State defense: 3-4 bandit based defense (7 starters return)
Hate to say it, as this will be a rather abbreviated section, as for the very first time in my 9^th season of covering Virginia Tech football for techsideline.com, I have zero film in front of me to watch to give you the scouting report heads-up on the newly installed 3-4 defensive look for Appy.State. I can tell you that I did see a fairly athletically gifted looking defense out of Appy.State last season on film and yet this was also one that also got pushed around a bit at the point of attack down in the trenches from time-to-time last season as well. That’s not good and neither is finishing a puny looking 82^nd in Rushing Defense allowed last year in D-1aa terms with 162 allowed per game on the ground on average. The 2010 Appy.State stop-unit does appear to get better the further away you move from the line-of-scrimmage and their newly installed 3-4 defensive set will likely cause some assignment and or alignment problems and some misreads from a debuting Logan Thomas and the 2011 Virginia Tech offense at times on Saturday. However, and all of that to say: it sure looks to me like my boy David Wilson should have room to run, early, often and long vs. this 2011 Appy.State 3-4 defensive set and it would not surprise me to see Virginia Tech go with a rather vanilla or pedestrian Jumbo (2-Te) or Fb lead offensive set and simply K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) early on and see if Appy.State can match up 11 on 11 down in the trenches vs. big bad Virginia Tech –or not. The one foible here is the so-called Bandit hybrid position from Appy-State with is something of a De-OLb combination position that appears to be more parts defensive-end and less parts outside-linebacker to me. This Bandit player can line up with his hand in the dirt along the line-of-scrimmage to give Appy.State a quasi 4-3 look where he can therefore Zone Blitz, or simply play off the line-of scrimmage to give Appy.State something of a 3-5-3 Odd Stack look which is code for a potentially confusing day for Logan Thomas, at least early on until Coach O’Cain and Stiney get a better fix or read on what Appy.State is really up to on defense this Saturday. Go ahead and expect VT to have a big day on offense via four, or my boy #4 Davis Wilson running wild, presuming that L.T. can avoid costly Turnovers or outright illiterate misreads of the Appy.State oddball 3-4 defensive set as we march downfield, as Appy.State was no less than 18^th best in Turnover Margin last season at +.77 per contest in 2010. Sources close to A.S.U. told me that the switch to the 3-4defense had every bit as much to do with the Spread heavy Southern Conference opposing offenses as it actually had to do with the available stop-unit talent or personnel which appeared to favor going to a 3-4 as opposed to a 4-3 for the Mountaineers. Such may very well aid and abet Appy.State down the road in conference play, and such equally figures to not be worth very much at all vs. a more traditional and generically red-state conservative offense like Virginia Tech’s which does not operate from a full-time base spread offensive set in the first place.

Appy.State Special Teams:
93% FG Kicker, 10^th best in Net Punting last year and this bantamweight version of the college football Mountaineers will block some kicks be that P.A.T.’s, FGA’s or punts. That remind you of anybody folks? Maybe even a D-1aa pint sized or mini-me diminutive version of Beamerball itself? It should as this Appy.State special teams unit will flat get after you as it is Katie bar the door and anything can and possibly will happen vs. these 2011 Mountaineers as special teams play goes this season. Their Punter (Sam Martin) has just about as much hang time as the International Space Station does, making anything other than a fair-catch from the always dangerous Jayron Hosley unlikely at best on most punts. As noted above, watch for Appy.State to plum “get after” Cody Journell on FGA or P.A.T. kick blocks after seeing his penchant for low line-drive style attempts this summer. Just ask Michigan how that one tastes. Presuming Martin transitions well as a double duty punter and kicker goes, the Appy.State kick game should do well in 2011. The only special teams catch that I could find is that the Appy.State return teams are nothing special.

The wvu once nearly blood-feud big east--->A.c.c. rivalry is now ... what??? Chillaxed. Mellowed. Cooled off a bit. Important. Though football >>> basketball any day. Still very much life-n-death, still acidic, still grain hungover liver bile. View Results  Loading ...

Conclusions, illation and prediction:
For a change, lets borrow on Dr. Stephen Cover and: “begin with the end in mind” and state the Upsets Odds right away.

Upset Odds=15% at best.

Virginia Tech really should win this one, and Virginia Tech can win this one going away. Only caveat I can offer up here is none other than Logan Thomas the much ballyhooed O&M Adonis sized Messiah in cleats his ownself. If L.T. maintains possession of the football and does not give the pigskin away, Virginia Tech really should win by 20+ points no matter how dynamic Appalachian State is on offense in Division-one double-a terms. However, should L.T. sail some throws, lead some pass catchers too far, misread the unusual mixed and disguised oddball 3-4 defense of Appy.State, or simply come out too jacked-up or as jittery as a sophomore schoolgirl on prom night with the stud senior Qb when it is time to disappear from the after-party –then Appy.State will do no worse than maintain contact with much vaunted Virginia Tech thanks to that very same and very dynamic Appy.State offense itself. Or in other words this one is all about Virginia Tech and Appalachian State really does need some Hokie help in order to steal this one out on the road. My best take is that Appy.State would need a -3 (or worse) Turnover Margin outta Tech to actually pull this upset off. Yes, I actually do favor Appalachian State to put up some decent enough offensive numbers on Saturday out on Worsham Field as they work the man-to-man challenged Virginia Tech second-layer (i.e. Linebackers) in pass coverage which will eventually open things up underneath for some Qb keepers outta Presley and some misdirection rushing from Cadet. I would not die of shock if Appalachian State (eventually) tallies 275-325 yards of total offense on the day which should be good for a cracking the 20 point barrier on the scoreboard as well. Only things is, that I am also inclined to say that Virginia Tech will run very well on this Mountaineer stop-unit and mostly like break the quad-century (400) yard mark of total offense with a Heisman posing kinda opening day from my boy David Wilson. Hence you can see what I meant above when I said that this one is really all about Virginia Tech and Logan Thomas. Appalachian State is very likely a 10+ win D-1aa football squad this year, which is mutually exciting, entertaining, and downright fun to watch. Ultimately however, they are out-classed, out-manned and out-gunned as top-44 (or two-deep) talent goes when compared strategically head-to-head to their O&M Virginia Tech counterparts man for man. Yes, both teams should win their conference championships according to most members of the prognosticanti this season, and it is equally true that there is a big difference between winning the Southern Conference D-1aa championship and winning the A.c.c. B.C.S. auto-bid championship in the final measurement.

UPDATE:
As I just told Chris Coleman on Friday morning:
“Bud (Foster) don’t play. Bud ain’t a rug, he doesn’t know how to lie.”

What am I talking about this time?
The feelers coming outta Blacksburg from various media outlets and sources germane to the situation suggest that the Appy.State offense poses a greater threat than initial measurements of such suggested. And to be sure, none of the initial measurements even remotely suggested that this smallish looking D-1aa offense was a soft-touch by any measure in and of itself.

On top of that, I finally ran down not one, –two Appy.State sources who thankfully and to their credit helped coach me up a bit on this revamped and possibly revitalized lowercase Mountaineer stop-unit. The early returns are that the 3-4 switch not only fit the available Appy.State talent much better than the former 4-3 did; the early returns also aver that the newly installed 3-4 gave the much vaunted Appy.State offense some bona fide difficulties at times during spring ball and August camp alike. Let’s put those two takes to the rubber meets the road test. First of all that tells me that Appy.State had to be better off the defensive line-of-scrimmage and at least semi-deep at Linebacker in order to fully fund the forth starting Linebacker (Bandit De-OLb hybrid in this case) and prolly a bit thin up-front in defensive line terms where their down-linemen prerequisite or mandatory funding requirements have been cut by 25%. The other thing I ever so subtly picked up was that the right-side (or all-senior) Appy.State oLine was much much more precocious that that left-side or all rookie r-freshmen oLine is at this state. This would explain both takes rather fluently in a nutshell and this also fully posits to me that you will see Coach Moore roll D-1aa all-American Qb ‘dre Presley away from the rookie blind-side first year starters at left-G and left-Ot and in the direction of his throwing or right-hand which is also in the direction of his senior friendly right-side oLine early and often in this one. This is what football coaches colloquially refer to as “covering” for a real or perceived weakness out of any given 11 man starting rotation by deemphasizing that that proverbial weak link and making the apparently stronger links bear the load.

Why Appalachian State will win?
They won’t.
Next question.

Why Virginia Tech will win?
They will.
Only question is by how much.

Some of the above question can be addressed via addressing basic entry level football front-line spacing. Some of this has to do with second layer –and beyond- as spacing goes.

First up we see the real reason why Virginia Tech is gonna win this football game gar-ron-teed! Namely, the difference in spacing between a 3-4 defensive alignment and that of a more standardized 4-3 set-up; in particular what I am typing about is the spacing up-front along the Appy.State defensive line. Simply put the 3-4 has wider gaps, or as they are known in old-school parlance, wider holes between the:

De-Ng-De

…than does the more laterally compact:

De-Dt-Dt-De

…in the traditional base 4-3 front-line alignment. In particular on the inside where we simply must run our staple bread-n-butter Iso or “Wham” play with my boy David 8-12 times per game just because. However, this time we will have backed into a good thing as the 3-4 gap between the Nose-Guard and either Defensive-End is much more gaping than the hole is between the 4-3 based Defensive Tackles themselves and between a given Defensive Tackle and a same-side Defensive End. On top of all of that, there is no way in the world that any D-1aa Mountaineer is gonna beat my boy #4 to the corner of much of anything. Not the corner of the playing field, not even to the corner of the South Main Cellar anchor bar block, not even if you spot them a Big Al’s head-start give or take.You should also go ahead and watch for Wilson to get the rock off of any hot-read in space, any and possibly every hot read in space, at least early on, when L.T. checks-down. Why not let one of the most dynamic play-makers in the A.c.c. and in all of D-1 for that matter do work on the 82^nd ranked D-1aa rushing defense no matter how or where you get him the rock. Finally, watch for flooding. No, this has nothing to do with the next Hurricane Warning that my sources say will be named: “Katia”. This does in fact have to do with keeping the 3-4 reads as simple as possible for our rookie year r-sophomore phenom looking Qb. You do that via flooding one side and one side only of a 3-4 defense with 3 Wide Receivers to two defenders while forming the very easy to see (or read) first-school so-called: “passing triangle” with progressive reads up the field. Or even better, by using my boy Wilson out of the backfield to truly overload one side of the 3-4 Appy.State defense with no less than 4 VT pass catchers to only 3 defenders. Who cares what the 3 backside Appy.State defenders are doing as they are out of the play as recovery speed goes from the get-go. Do this and I expect you see the very first truly Michael Vick ‘esque looking runs since, well, Michael Vick himself. Finally, and let’s hope not, however, if need be down along the goaline or in any potential critical short-yardage, look for the return of the Qb-sneak from our 6`6“ LeBron James sized Adonis in cleats with the Klitschko wingspan one Logan Lamont Thomas –and somewhere Jim Druckenmiller must be smiling.

The catch here is that Appy.State is gonna spread VT out and score a few points as well. Unless the rather improved VT pass rush gets to ‘dre Presley and simply knocks him out of the game early on. For the sake of dialogue, and therefore exempting the possibility of such, which is only amplified by the 100% r-freshman rookie year blind-side of the 2011 Appy.State oLine mind you. I look for Bud to stick to his base 4-3 regulation defensive set early on, for a quarter or maybe even 20 minutes of scrimmaging or so. Then I look for Coach Moore and company to force Bud’s hand which will force But back into his 2010 fallback position otherwise known as his Nickel Set which brings C.Hill in for Winslow and still allows Bud’s elite pass rushing front-4 to get after ‘dre Presley as best they can no matter who is in the game up-front. Or in other words, I am not expecting to see much of the 30-set, beyond just giving the lesser Wilson some reps as a Zone Drop De just because. Why? Because it is well documented by now that our second-layer (i.e. Linebackers) are better vs. the run than they are in coverage and this tells me that Appy.State will go 4-wide and force no less than two Hokies to line-up on the de facto 2 Slot men for the Mountaineers in man-to-man coverage. This will also spread the run-stuffing element of Bud Lite out all the further to create better angles and therefore the very same cutback oriented internally geometry that plagued us last season all year long. Finally I also forecast that Coach Moore will do anything he can to rough our undersized and out-of-position Boundary-Cb (Hosely) up early and often. Mr. Quick is no less than a whopping 7“ taller and no more than 50 odd lbs. heavier than “twenty” is. Which is why I also expect Jayron will be moved back to Field-side Cb (where he belongs) before 2011 is all said-n-done. I’d say that’s worth about 20 black and gold points, maybe even more if we turn the ball over on offense more than twice this Saturday afternoon down in the New River Valley. This one is gonna be a VT win folks, make no mistake on that as Appy.State has nobody on defense who can spy or much less even check David Wilson. However, this one is also gonna be closer and even more wild and woolly than expected.

 

Virginia Tech=44, Appalachian State=26

 

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street