(n/r) Boston College @ #12 Virginia Tech:

Homecoming 2011!!!

TV coverage: 3pm (Raycom Sports)
Vegas line: VT favored by 21.5 points
over/under=43.5 points
$-Line: VT is a 13.5:1 favorite and B.C. is a 1:8.85 underdog

So we beat Boston College, go down to Duke, beat them, and then what?

As of right now the 2011 Virginia Tech football season epilogue is in a holding pattern or waiting to be written.

VT is the favorite vs. a beleaguered Boston College, who is much better than their 1-season (1-5) overall record suggests. Mix in not one, t-w-o injuries to stud and all-A.c.c. pre-season Player of the Year award winning Montel Harris at Tb, and then nuke the foot of your best dLineman (Kaleb Ramsey) who was something of a mini-me version of B.J. Raji in the making upfront and suddenly you have a 1 up and 5 down football club that could be .5oo or better. Coach God Bless both guys and all of the other Boston College walking wounded which numbers 9 guys in their three-deep, 67% of which are already out for the year. Now mix in a new injury (leg/knee) to Montel’s replacement (Andre Williams – who is expect to give it a go vs. VT) and then add injury to injury to injury and knock off the best B.C. offensive Guard, a stud pass-catcher and add even more injuries to the Flying Eagles defense upfront and in the B.C. secondary and you have pretty much written the Chestnut Hill 2011  epitaph.

Ergo, VT is finally playing someone even more beat up than they (VT) are and this win really should be engraved in Hokie Stone as our beloved Hokies really, truly, are the heavy favorites in this one. However, the prologue or incoming theme of health (or lack thereof) is indeed the primary storyline for this one and for next weeks game down at Duke as well.

VT really does need to get as healthy as possible in a hurry and for extra dang sure; VT does not need anymore season ending surgeries with rough-n-tumble games at Georgia Tech and then back home for U.N.C. on tap. Accordingly, I’d love to see VT open a full case of vacuum packed whoop-ass upside Boston College’s head in the first 30 minutes of play and let the O&M 1’s (Frank: for “starters”) take the rest of the day off.

Top–10:

1. Twenty one. Ace-10 in blackjack and the number of sacks (21) from Bud Lite in VT’s last six football games. (BONUS 3,371: David Wilson’s total yardage gained all-time at VT thus far)
2. Two. Boston College is one of 2 A.c.c. artificial turf teams and is not used to playing on grass.
3. Three. Nosal, Miller and DeChris have combined to play every single offensive snap of the last 25 quarters of scrimmaging less 3 plays from Nosal last week at Wake. i.e. fatigue (if not exhaustion) will be a factor here folks. (BONUS: 35 yards max, and 37 yards max respectively; as in  B.C. and VT are the only two A.cc. teams to NOT allow a single carry in access of 40 yards in the ground in the A.c.c. this season; i.e. Wilson may not be breaking one this week)
4. Pass. Four letters that Boston College is not very good at, as the Flying Eagles rank 101^st in passing defense and 104^th in passing efficiency offense. (BONUS: 4, as in the number of passing TD’s B.C. has allowed this season)
5. Five. Logan Thomas has nailed 5 passing TD’s and 4 rushing TD’s (his ownself) in his last three games! (BONUS: David Wilson is ranked as the 5^th leading rusher nationwide with 129 yards on average on the ground per game.
6. Sixty. VT is a tough homecoming out, as VT is a most impressive 60`19-4 all-time on Homecoming in Blacksburg.
7. Seventeen. As in 15 of the 17 major team based statistical metrics that I track show Boston College as being ranked 58th, average or worse, sometimes much worse. i.e. this is a surprisingly unattractive looking football team on paper folks
8. Eighty-seventh. Meaning, VT is a disappointed87^th best in Tackles for a Loss (TFL) allowed. (BONUS: VT is only allowing a 48.9% completion% from opposing Qb’s this season, first-best in the A.c.c.!)
9. Ninety-seven. As in my hommie David Wilson only needs 97 yards vs. Boston Collge carrying the mail to crack the 1,000 yard mark for 2011 at the mid-way point of the campaign.
10. Boston College is ten times two, or 2o^th in fewest penalties per game; i.e. a pretty well-coached and well disciplined football team folks. (BONUS: VT has only allowed 10 points to be scored off of 9 turnovers or 1.11 points allowed per Hokie turnover, a stunning statistic to put it mildly)

Boston College offense: Power-I, or 3 to 5 wides (9 starters back)
The top-4 B.C. Rb’s are all averaging between 4.0 and 4.7 per carry; the kicker however is that only one of ‘em has logged a single run in excess of 26 yards this season. Now, examine the Pivot (Qb) position and you will find a 53% passer (Chase Rettig) with a 6:5 passing ratio who was 51% and 6:9 last year. Yah; I suppose that is a modest improvement; or at least Rettig is not getting any worse. However, when you have that impotent looking rushing attack and that variety of a cost-cutter vanilla passing attack, you Sir have a very inert looking offense indeed. There is just nothing exciting to report upon in this one folks –peanut-butter and jelly everywhere you look in Flying Eagle offensive terms anywho. This is a B.C. offense that Bud Foster can play straight-up with his base 4-3 (with plenty of Tweedy at Whip) and just sit back and triple dog dare this Flying Eagle offense to stick their tongue to the pole; just like Ralphie and pals in A Christmas Story. The New River Valley temperature is forecast to chill-out this weekend and B.C. won’t be doing much of anything to heat it up on offense either.

Neither one of these offensive and defensive sections will be a effusive in X’s and O’s terms as there just was not a whole lot that I saw on film that was all that exotic outta the Boston College O or D in breaking tape on the Flying Eagles.

I am no longer seeing the mammoth size (weight-wise) B.C. oLine of yore. This version of the B.C. big-uglies is tall enough (all between 6`4“ and 6`8“), though not quite so meaty as in the past. Saw more one-on-one man blocking on the inside and I saw quite a bit of inside rushing from offensive coordinator Kevin Rogers –the former VT Qb coach. Such might just explain the lack of pop or HR hitting capabilities of the B.C. offense and rather smartly at that. B.C. will run with more I-back and Hb hybrid and a Fb or Te (H-back) sidekick. So on the one hand, Bud Lite really should know what to expect in this one. However, on the other hand, the one issue here is that I expect B.C. to be all to happy to go ahead and test the manhood of a highly depleted Virginia Tech middle defense, good-n-hard, early and often in this one with nearly rudimentary looking simple old-school Dive, Iso or Wham plays right up the VT gut. Only #44, sophomore Rb ‘dre Williams has any measure of electricity to his game, beyond him, I expect Boston College to run straight at VT between the Ot’s and then play action off of that. As passing goes, Rettig does not have a weak arm, though what does it matter if you can throw it from here to Tennessee when it keeps landing in Kentucky. Accuracy is not Rettig’s middle name and sophistication is not the B.C. passing offense’s calling card. In fact, if there is a less sophisticated passing offense in the A.c.c this side of the Georgia Tech flex-bone not name Virginia Tech, it would have to be the 2011 Flying Eagle aerial assault. The B.C. passing attack is what I’d describe as one that hovers in and around the mid-range area in downfield terms. There was a decent amount of lateral or horizontal stretch here, and they will throw to guys on the move often enough; however, just like the B.C. rushing attack, I really did not see anything all that exotic or exceptional in film study here. I saw a lotta 3 men out patterns with 1 or 2 Rb’s kept in to block. This is just not a real aggressive looking passing attack no matter how you slice it men. To take that thought to its fruition, this is one of the few A.c.c. passing attacks I’ve studied in the past handful of years that does not appear to have so much as even a single third-string all-A.c.c. candidate among the whole entire lot. Chris Pantel may be Honorable Mention at Te, though that has much more to do with his blocking acumen and a lot less to do with his pass catching. Ditto right-Ot Emmit Clearly who does some rather smart sky-scraping work out on the Flying Eagle edge; and after that, there is just not a lot of star power to be found in the Flying Eagle offensive constellation.

Rettig will work from the shotgun and he is not exactly a mover and a shaker back there to be sure. Ergo, I expect Bud Lite to “get after” him and check his chin whenever B.C. finds them trapped in obvious Lo.FM passing situations. Rettig has rushed for a whopping -55 in reverse already this season and I don’t see him doing much better vs. the 13^th best defense when it comes to sacking the Quarterback on Saturday afternoon as Rettig will likely be force-feed a very large dose of Worsham Field itself.

Right now this B.C. offense has a look and feel of one that is most comfortable playing a simple game of keep-away as Time of Possession (TOP) goes or a modern day version of stall-ball or slowtime. If yawning is your thing, this is the offense for you. (overall Boston College offensive letter-grade: lowest possible C—, at least B.C. tries to play power football)

Boston College defense: base 4-3, (5 starters return)
Name the Boston College defense in one word or less? “Umbrella”, as the Flying Eagle stop unit tries its damndest to keep every single thing in front of it and always play deeper than the deepest offensive man on every single play. Now that said, this is a fairly physical B.C. stop-unit that is fairly fundamentally sound. Soft they simply ain’t, poorly coached they are not. Talented, well, kinda, sorta, at least in spots and very in particular in the Flying Eagle second layer.

Note the pinch technique of the B.C. defensive-tackles who are basically in 1 or outside eye techniques more often then not off of your starting center. Sometimes you will see them over in the A-gap(s) though that’s about it. Miller will have his hands full with this as he will be covered or double-covered up all day long, though do note the spacing in the B or even sometimes in the C gap(s) that looks rather inviting to me. Hence I am left wondering if I should go ahead and carve a inside-zone notch count for the Virginia Tech rushing offense in this one. As this internally clogged Boston College defensive alignment is not gonna prove to be real friendly in inside-zone or L.T. read option keeper terms if the Flying Eagles hold true to form. Now observe that the B.C. Linebackers are typically deployed 4-5 yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS) proper; although mostly they are lined-up unstacked. (i.e. not behind one of the B.C. Dt’s or De’s) and patrolling what looks like 1.5 to the occasional 2 full internal gaps or holes. The key here is for Nosal or Brooks to get to one of them and have one of the VT Ot’s block down on the other B.C. Lb with a VT Te or H-back cleaning up or sealing the given B.C. De. The tricky part is maneuvering and arriving on target in that much wide-open space, as it does not take a footwork magician to make a 300 something pound oLineman miss when they have to cover that much distance and suddenly stop or even worse should they have to change direction. Lanier is well suited to this. DeChris? Not so much. Becton? No way. Ergo, expect a lotta backside or odd-numbered work in this one folks (which favors Lanier).

The Boston College Linebackers are stellar, thanks to the tackling machine otherwise known as Luke Kuechly who is only ranked #1 in all of college football with a staggering 99 stops on the season already; which gives him an out of this world 440 overall for his D-1 football career thus far! I’d say that’s punching your ticket to the College football Hall of Fame over in South Bend folks. As it is nothing short of an honor to get to watch a defender who is this damn good. In fact, this Kuechly kid has the look and feel of the A.c.c. player of the year per his 17 stops per game average right now to me! On the rare occasion that Luke is not your father, or does not get there and make the stop, Kevin Pierre-Louis is making 9.33 stops of his own per contest if you need him over at the Weakside Linebacker spot. Clearly, defensive coordinator Bill McGovern has leagues of confidence in his defensive second-layer to play them this far off the LOS; and I gotta say, I’m seeing nothing on film to refute said confidence, nothing at all. As this B.C. Linebacking crops is as good as any we will face all year long. Accordingly, when you have this much Linebacking talent, you really do need to find a home for them. So go ahead and expect to see some 3-4 looks outta B.C. this weekend. I was totally ambushed by this on tape; however, there is no doubt that O’Cain and Stiney have already seen this and it won’t hurt that we as a team have already seen this three times this season. The B.C. 3-4 is very generic looking same as their 4-3 base; very read-n-react, not all that blitz heavy and just like the 4-3 it keeps everything that it can in front of it as you work your way downfield.

As for pass coverage, I saw a whole lotta medium-man to flat-out off-man in this one with a good deal of a deep seated Cover-2 behind all of that. The B.C. secondary may not be the fastest I’ve ever seen on film, though they are pretty dang physical in run support as they do not miss many tackles downfield.

The word for describing this B.C. defense may indeed be “umbrella” however the word for beating this B.C. defense is patient execution. Ok, so that’s two words, though this is one week where VT may actually need to stick to the script (presuming it is not internal run-heavy oriented script) and just take what B.C. gives and slowly yet surely work our way uncomplainingly downfield. (overall Boston College defensive letter-grade: a sturdy or workman like, though not impregnable low caliber C+)

Boston College special teams: (both specialists return)
The Boston College field-goal kicking game is nothing if not strong-legged; or nothing if not inconsistent, take thy pick. Sophomore Kicker Nate Freese can miss a P.A.T. attempt just as easily as he can go 5 of 6 between 40 and 52 yards. This kid is gonna be good and he will prolly be Cody Journell’s rival for all-A.c.c. honors at some point. As Freese just needs to cool down a bit and take care of his fundamental business. Once both of Saturday’s Kickers stop over-kicking the football, everything will fall into place for Mr. Freese (31-37 career FGA’s) and our very own Cody Journell alike. B.C. has some pretty poor return teams, as 99^th KO Returns and 110^th in Punt Returns fully suggests. The Flying Eagles long punt return has gone for a whopping 9 yards and their biggest KO runback has gone for 35. No worries there. However they can punt the football well enough as B.C. is a fairly sporting 21^st best in Net Punting. Thanks primarily to the fact that the Eagles have allowed a grand total of 8 yards in punt returns through 6 games this season! That and Punter Ryan Quigley who has a decent enough leg, good hangtime and is a great direction Punter. Accordingly, only roughly 1/3^rd of his punts have been returned at all this year. B.C.’s KO coverage unit is not so hot to trot and has already allowed on TD return along the way to only being ranked 96^th in KO coverage defense. (overall Boston College special team’s letter-grade: a very high C+++ or a very low B-, take your pick)

Upsetting Top-10 nationally ranked Miami at home is really all about ... what??? Homecourt, and the most excited, enthused and momentum rolling Cassell in years. Timing. VT is catching Miami at the right time with the Newton suspension. Sorry b.street. R.A.T.T. ain't happening; Miami is too good for that. View Results  Loading ...

Conclusion(s), illation, and OPT digits:
Right now, based upon what I am already seeing; I am perfectly unable and likewise unwilling to set the upset index at anything higher than a 20% chance of Boston College rolling into Lane Stadium and knocking VT off at home.

Boston College just looks too inert on offense with Harris now out for the duration and with Mr. California Qb Chase Rettig -who is unexpectedly unimproved from last year- leading the 1o5th ranked total offense into Blacksburg on Saturday afternoon. On top of that the Flying Eagle stop-unit just looks too thin in talent not named Linebacker, (as Luke Kuechly is a pleasure and an honor to watch –best pure throwback MLb I’ve seen in college football this side of Vince Hall) too nonathletic, and too beat-up to do much of anything about it as the final outcome goes. I did read where Junior De Max Holloway said that once the B.C. offense gets on track and once the football starts bouncing their way this week, the rest of the team “we’ll be rolling”. While I do so admire that never ever let go the rope mentality, this one sure has the look and feel of a hangman’s noose knot to me.

Then I read this size-22 kick right in the Flying Junk from the Boston College’s head football coach his ownself…

“We have had some — what usually happens when you struggle. We have a leadership issue. We have very few upperclassmen or seniors on the team. We have had the ones that were upperclassmen injured and hurt. And we have had guys in and out of the lineup, and we have had an inconsistency in our practice schedules that has shown up and manifested itself in the games.” -Coach Spaz’-

Yah; pretty much, as that’s what happens when you take a 6-8 win football and gut 2 of its Top-3 ballers for the year. The drop off is a long and perilous one and it can feel more like a free-fall off a cliff if/when you begin to get used to getting beat. This is what I saw on film as this season has already worn on Boston College mentally –every bit as much as it has physically. And to be sure, this has already been something of a meat-grinder physically speaking for poor B.C. who is actually a good deal better than they have been able to show. No thanks to such an insalubrious season indeed.

To amplify what I said above in the Top-10 section, B.C. is actually and factually ranked poorly in national terms (read: 88^th or worse) in 10 outta the major 17 team wide statistical categories that I track for each and every opponent each and every week. That’s not good, and yah; that’s the signature of a 1-5 football team that is about to go a positively Duke like 1-6. To take that a bit further, I’m not real sure that B.C. could win even with a +3 turnover margin on Saturday; at least not out on the road inside of Lane Stadium.

Boston College is one of those rare A.c.c football teams that simply does nothing well. Duke and Wake have pretty decent passing attacks; the dumb frenchies are pretty good on the ground and have a better than expected defense. Even NC.State can throw the pigskin around a bit and play good special-teams behind that –Boston College? Not so much, as the Flying Eagles are only a highly pedestrian 68^th best vs. the run and 88^th or less in 6 outta the 8 major offensive or defensive categories right now.

Now that said, B.C. has slightly improved on both offense and defense alike over their past three games; whereas it is actually Virginia Tech who is in regression overall in both offensive and defensive terms over the same time period.

• IF you just love all flavors of Mayonnaise and the nearby bottle of Salad Dressing that looks exactly the same is just too much for you, Boston College is your team
• IF your winter time staple is tomato soup, tomato soup and even more tomato soup, the Flying Eagles are for you
• IF you collect Honda Civics, Chestnut Hill is the place to be

As this sure is one cost-cutter vanilla flavored football team indeed men. Nothing fancy, no thrills, low Q-score football if you will.

To put it on its lowest ground, Boston College was slated to have very few parts style with several noticeable parts substance. Then they would have gone out and methodically won football the old-fashioned way, “they earn it.”

That said, the very first thing you notice about the contemporary Flying Eagles is that they are missing two massive parts substance (‘tel Harris at Rb and Kaleb Ramsey at Ng/Dt) The 2011 margin of error up in Beantowne was good enough to win 6-8 football games at full strength; right now the Eagles margin of error could very well remain grounded on one solo win for the 2011 duration. This is just not a good football team folks; in fact it’s not even an average football team. B.C. has gotten ever so slightly better in total offense (6 whole yards or 18`) in their last 3 games, and about two first downs (19 yards) to the good in total defense over the very same time span. However, this Flying Eagle squad has a long way to go and outside of visiting Maryland and hosting NC.State, they have a short time to get there. Unless coach Spaz’ can manufacture a close to the vest win in one of those two games, don’t be terribly shocked if Boston Colleges goes belly-up at 1-11 for 2011.

“Where you stand is where you sit.”
-George Will-

Right now, VT is sitting on what looks like an 8-1 start and Boston College is the mirror-image or isomer at a very likely 1-8 beginning. That where things stand right now, however, that will all change if VT does not recover some measure of health before a very rugged looking visit down to the ATL gets here in 18 days time. Accordingly, I for one will be most intrigued if VT playing-time and substation patterns reflect such vs. Boston College –or not? Likewise, I for one would not mind see the 2’s (second-teamers) and the rest of the home dress roster getting down and dirty and leaving the student managers with a long day on Sunday minding the washing machines galore.

Now we come to the matter at hand that spawned such a interesting amount of replies below. The VT offense has backed up by 19 total yards per game since Clemson. However, it is the VT rushing offense that has diminished by almost 30 yards per contest over the same timeframe. That’s fine and dandy, so long as L.T. continues to get better and better. Saves my home-boy David Wilson some wear and tear before traveling to Atlanta and then coming home for U.N.C., then @ france and then @ Charlotte for the A.c.c championship game –or so we all hope. Now take a good long hard look at that sequence folks.

That’s 80% of our final five games played outside of Lane Stadium, more like 5 of our last 6 2011 football games; again presuming we make it to Charlotte and then on to whatever Bowl. This tells me two things…

1. First up, go ahead and enjoy Land Stadium while you can; before you get reseated (again) this off-season in fact; as time’s a wasting to scratch Jim Weaver another check.
2. Second of all, this youngling buncha Hokies could either prove to be road-warriors or road-weary. “Home is where the heart is.” Or so my late mom’s office wall used to say. However this team won’t be home much longer and I sure hope that has been calculated into Saturday’s playing-time equation indeed.

Virginia Tech=37, Boston College=9

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street