Your 100% FREE-view Miami game preview!

Miami @ #21 Virginia Tech:

TV coverage: 3:30pm ABC/ESPN

Vegas line: VT favored by 7.5 points
o/u=44.5
$-Line: VT is a 2.8:1 favorite, Miami is a 1:2.4 underdog

“The U” and all of its self-anointed hubbub and well known hurry to pat itself on the back  is in fact coming back to the New River Valley folks.

Miami is 2-2. Miami got beat on Labor Day night up at Maryland by about a full play, then went home and worked #17 Ohio State by 18. After that the ‘Canes did not take Manhattan as their jaunt to Kansas State left them down by 28-24 in the end. Last week they came home and gave up 219 rushing to little ole D-1aa Bethune-Cookman and still won going away by a 45-14 margin up on the scoreboard. Go fig’? Will the real Miami please stand up, please stand up.

Who the hell knows which Miami will show up for this one men; ditto if anybody knows how such a youngling Virginia Tech football team will respond to such a spiteful looking 20 point home-standing beat down by Clemson last weekend in Lane Stadium on national TV. Raise your hand if you called that one? Me neither.

On the one hand we see the T.Rex sized carnivorous Miami oLine which does appear poised to maul the herbivore looking and already mauled by injury VT Dt’s on paper; same as they did last year down in Miami.

On the other hand we see a very sore and testy looking Virginia Tech football team that just got kicked good and hard right in the O&M junk and that has tended to rebound well enough in the past from adversity under Coach Beamer. Thanks in no small part to some most efficacious internal leadership. However who(m) are the leaders who will ring the rally bell loud and proud and bail a foundering VT out this time?

Be that as it may, right now both teams can objectively and quantitatively see this one as their Coastal gateway-game indeed!

Dropping to o-2 in the Coastal Division will effectively eliminate one of these two football squads from contending for the 2011 A.c.c. pigskin crown. As overcoming a 2.5 game gap between the beaten adversary on Saturday in Lane and Coastal front-runner Georgia Tech would appear to be a tall order at best and too much to ask at worst.

On top of that, do not forget that Miami is set to recover the services of several formerly suspended starters just in time for our football game; funny how that one worked out huh?

Top–10:

1. First. J.R. Collins is currently in first place for the entire A.c.c. in Sacks. (BONUS: VT is first-best in D-1 punt coverage allowing a whopping negative, -3.2 yards per opposing return)
2. Second. VT currently ranks second in Time of Possession (TOP) in all of D-1 at 35:48 minutes per game)
3. Third. Meaning, VT is averaging 2.5 points in the 3^rd quarter of play since beating Appy.State.
4. Fourth. As in the Hurricanes are 4^th best in punt returns and 45^th best in Net Punting giving Miami a sizable edge in potential field-position in this one.
5. 105th. The U is 1o5^th best in rushing defense this season.
6. Sixth. VT is 6^th best in Pass Efficiency defense right now thanks to up-n-coming stud Secondary Coach Torrian Gray.
7. Seventy-one. As in VT is 71% vs. Miami head-to-head in A.c.c. play; and 75% vs. Miami since 2003. (BONUS: VT is 117^th in Net Punting)
8. 58.2. As in right now, VT is presently ranked second in D-1 rushing defense at 58.2 yards allowed per game. (BONUS: VT is only 98^th in Red Zone offense this campaign)
9. Nine. Meaning, VT has scored in 9 consecutive quarters of play vs. the Miami Hurricanes.
10. Tenth. Miami plays in your backfield as the ‘Canes are 10^th best in Sacks and 39^th in Tackles for a Loss (TFL) this season.

Miami Offense: (Pro 2-Wr set, 7 starters back)
To put it mildly, this is a very jacked up rushing attack from Miami that will throw around 2,132 odd lbs. worth of brute blocking force at you on any given play. That’s 5 T.Rex sized starting oLinemen, who basically are all north of 3o5 lbs.! Now look at the screen cap (below) good and hard. Do you see what I see? I see a third, yes, that’s a third Ot lined up in an true Coach John Chamara (Bluefield tribute, insert here: check) ‘esque unbalanced offensive line set. That or you will see a whole lotta Jumbo or twin Te’s, with one full-time Tb and two Wideouts to give such a powerhouse rushing attack at least a measure of legitimate stud Wr passing voltage downfield. On occasion you will see the vintage I-formation from a true balanced set; or even with one Te subbing in as a H-back off of a Fullback iso-lead or wham-play. If old-school smash-mouth offensive football is your flavor of tea, this ‘Cane offense is the one for you. As this is surely one in your face, rugged, rough, tough looking ‘Cane offense up-front. Gone are the pretty boy, flashy or sexxy So.Beach days of Michael Irving, here are the evenings of a Miami offense that simply tries to physically beat you up; and then has the audacity to try nail you on a long-ball off a under center play action or a shotgun play fake. Watch for the long ball on any given Fly, Go, or Streak route or on a deep late breaking Post pattern when Miami does that. Harris may very well be the best deep-ball thrower in the whole darn A.c.c. folks. This is why the modern day version of Reggie Ball (INT prone Gah.Tech Qb -remember him-) is averaging 8.04 per pass attempt, that’s per attempt not per completion folks. That said, Harris looks better to me on film and on paper alike, he is up to 69% passing, and now enjoys a 2:1 ratio. That’s a 14% bump in completion percentage and over a 200% improvement over his formerly negatively lopsided 14:15 passing ratio from last year folks. Has Harris finally started to put it all together? As he sure is a good looking deep passer who just makes a couple of errors in medium to short passing judgment here and there; though do not be deceived by his career INT machine reputation, at least some of those bad throws are down, to be sure. That said, I did note that he under throws a lot of his mid-range picks. I don’t know why either as he certainly is not wanting for arm-strength on the HR throws that he does connect on vertically downfield. Though go ahead and watch for Harris to throw behind or simply under throw a Cane Wideout on something mid-range or closer to the LOS (line of scrimmage) before this one ends.

On this particular screen cap, you will see the Wr in motion crackback on the Bethune-Cookman De and the right-side Miami Ot pull to his right and loop behind the cracking-back Wr to destroy a B.C. Cb downfield as starting Tb Lamar Miller basically waltzed in for 6 points from 43 yards out. So you will see some counter based or misdirection work as Miami is not afraid to run weak-side with such a ginorimous oLine. Weak-side is a bit of a misnomer with such a mammoth oLine indeed men. You will see some shifting or motion outta Miami pre-snap and quite frankly, the ‘Canes ain’t shy about rushing the other way behind said shifts or the given man in motion. More so than any team I can recall in in the last couple of seasons to be clear.

Recall that my home slice Phil Steele had tabbed Miami as enjoying the fifth best oLine in all of D-1 football this season men. That’s fifth best outta 120 D-1 football squads overall; not fifth best in the A.c.c. The early vibe from my sources is that Staff agrees with this analysis and is calling this Hurricane oLine the best one that VT will face all year. By my count, Miami enjoys the services of the best Guard in the A.c.c. (Brad Washington), the second or third best Center (Ty Horn) and at least two other second string or honorable mention caliber all-A.c.c. candidates up-front. In point of fact, Miami has several back-up second string Hurricane oLinemen who sub in a play a fair amount off the U’s bench who could easy start at 3-6 other A.c.c. schools hands down. Now, and on top of all of that, go ahead and mix in a 2-3 solid to good –if not outright great, Hurricane pass catchers and the back-up VT secondary who never met a play-action that they did not like had better be very careful in this one. All the more so if this jacked up ‘Cane ground assut gets on track early on. If Miami runs well vs. a depleted VT front-line early on, that could prove to be rather disagreeable in the end. (overall Miami offensive letter-grade: very very high B+++, would be a flat-A if I was sure Harris would throw zero picks this Saturday)

Miami Defense: (4-3 base, 7 starters return)
The one thing that really leaps out at you in Hurricane defensive film study is just how much the Miami stop-unit is tooled and designed to simply play a speed based or a track-n-field variety of a defensive game. Speed, speed, more speed and even a greater reliance on speed after that. You will see this manifest itself with the very injured ‘Cane second-layer (Linebackers) playing 4-5 yards off the line-of-scrimmage; and in the fact that you will see some very soft looking off-Man coverage out on the edge of the field vs. the widest Wideout (or Flanker) that you choose to deploy. Behind all of that you will see Tampa-2 or a modified Shell-2 look with an occasional cheating forward move from the wideside or strong-side Safety (Ss) for a minor centerfield stager effect. When you see the aforementioned off-man on 1^st or 2^nd down go ahead an watch for a deluge of VT screening action to combat this. Although you will see the ‘Cane Cb’s clamp down and shift all the way into a more pressing look in short yardage scenarios. When this happens look for O’Cain to take a few shots downfield and try to bait Miami into a couple of HR throws off of play-action to Wilson or Oglesby.

However, the speed reliance is still large and in charge and downright unmistakable. As you will witness on Saturday, you will see far more read-n-react and a bit less blitzing beyond some almost banal or mundane 5-man blitz sets where a ‘Cane OLb cheats up to the line-of-scrimmage pre snap. This read-n-react approach can create some inviting running lanes, if the VT oLine can just fold-block and get one good seal or one good kick-out block in the Miami second layer. Go ahead and look for more VT Fullback sets accordingly as our Fb’s will be a better X’s and O’s match-up vs. the ‘Cane Linebackers in space when they line-up that far off the line-of-scrimmage itself.

Here’s the kicker, in 12-13 odd-games Miami can and prolly will out-speed at least 75% of the A.c.c. and at least 80% of the teams overall that they play. This is the 1990’s Miami bend yet don’t break version of defensive football whereby these ‘Canes will simply attempt to out-athlete you downfield and in terms of flying to the football in a race to produce drive killing turnovers. That said, said turnovers have been hard to come by this season for the The U as Miami has only forced 2 fumbles and only intercepted 3 passes thus far. And then we arrive at the entry-level matter know as simple fundamentally sound form based tacking.

To put it mildly, I saw very suspect hit-n-wrap-up form tacking from the ‘Cane second-layer (Linebackers) and front-4 in film-study for this one. This urgently suggests a chance at some real-live Y.A.C. (yards after contact) outta both Josh and my boy David Wilson who is a broken tackle just begging to happen; 14 broken tackles last week vs. Clemson says so. Ditto the Fortson news as the ‘Canes have just seen their one stalwart Dt go down with a ugly looking A.C.L. injury in practice this week. Saint Paul bless on that one; and you have to wonder if Will and Chris want their pick(s) back at this stage of the weekly TSL.com game? Is this knee injury to Fortson worth 4 points to Will or a FG to Chris? I’d have to say that this Fortson hurt and the Buchanan (best Linebacker on the U’s second-layer by far) combined injuries are critical indeed. They are authentically worth points plural in my book in fact.

What I’m reading in proofing this section reads kinda soft or maybe even better stated; kinda finesse oriented to me. However, a word to the wise, Miami is 10^th best in Sacks and 39^th in TFL (tackles for a loss) and they will get some stops in the VT backfield just like Clemson and their defensive raw athletes just did last Saturday night. Go ahead and look for 8-10 of these combined if Miami holds true to incoming statistical form. Now factor in this little nugget … guess whose 22^nd in Red Zone defense? The Miami Hurricanes you say? Bingo that, as the vertically compressed football field inside the 20-yardline is the playground via design for so much Hurricane stop-unit based defensive speed. Additionally, guess who is only 98^th in Red Zone offense this season? Virginia Tech you say? Spot on, and therefore you have to hope that VT can nail a few broken fields or busted containment plays and go ahead and take a few longer scoring opportunities straight to the house. VT will get theirs as total yardage goes; however, how well (or not) VT plays down in the U’s red zone could very well be the hidden metric that decides this contest folks. (overall Miami defensive letter-grade: flat-C, injuries and lack of elementary level fundamentals have really cut into what should have been a B- to B+ kinda Hurricane stop-unit on paper this year)

Miami special teams: (zero specialists back)
On special teams we find a Hurricane punt game that holds a significant advantage over Virginia Tech when it comes to punting the football itself, and is a pretty fair to middling return crew in addition to that. Dalton Bolts may have a post-graduate career down at Cape Canaveral working for N.A.S.A. as all dood does is launch high-arching Moon-shots as punts go that nobody can return. His forty yard net is bank on most kicks as you will see at least a couple of his punts clear the upper edge of the Lane Stadium high-arching east-side stands and momentarily escape the Lane atmo’ (atmosphere) when he really gets a hold of one. Place kicking is 100% thus far on 4 for 4 kicking; and a likewise perfected 15 of 15 on P.A.T.’s. Can’t do any better than 100% last time I checked; although I’m having a tough time getting a 100% certain read just how good rookie year Place-Kicker Jake Weiclaw truly is on so few F.G.A.’s. This is either a case of so-far-so-good or a kid when evens out a bit and finishes so-far-so-far. Stay tuned on that one folks. The ‘Canes are 14^th best in KO coverage yet only 96^th best in punt coverage; ergo, hopefully Hosely will enjoy some room to run around a bit and generate a short-field or two in this one. As the So.Beach return teams themselves go, Miami has speed to burn, and this just in … rain is rumored to be wet. The ‘Cane punt return unit is only 4^th best in all the land, as the human-blur otherwise known as senior year Wideout #3 Travis Benjamin is a threat to take any punt back for six as his low mileage punt return on the season is a mere 17 yard jaunt vs. K.State a few weeks back. Travis double-dips as a very good if not great KO return specialist where he checks in at 34^th best in all the land. Travis triple dips as a stud 55m and 60m sprinter for the ‘Cane indoor Track-n-Field squad in the off-season. Moreover, #3 only has 105 career receptions for Miami and has put up two reliable pass catching games in row. Suffice it to say that this is a very handsome looking Hurricane special-teams unit; their best one in several years as a matter a fact. (overall Miami special-teams letter-grade: A-, only the U’s KO coverage is holding them back)

Rate this VT offensive hire: ...how many stars do you award coach-Fu plus coach Corny??? * ** *** **** ***** View Results  Loading ...

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT prediction:
The Hokies have been leaking rushing yardage of late; as the VT ground attack has fallen off by virtually 30 yards per game compared to its seasonal average (34^th best at 196 per contest) and is only averaging 168 per game since E.C.U. Does that scare you? I realize there are only 25-odd shopping days remaining until Halloween; however, it really should scare you indeed. Our top-2 starting rushers (L.T. and Wilson, A.K.A. the odd-couple) are beat-up, and 3 of our top-8 oLinemen are also beat up. Ergo, yards per carry has dropped from a good (albeit it not great) 4.5 yards per carry down to 4.o. Now, here is the frightening part; this drop has occurred vs. the 72^nd, vs. the 58^th, and vs. the 85^th ranked rushing defenses at the time we played them respectively. Not exactly murders row is it folks? If you had any questions about just how beat-up our rushing attack truly is, there’s your answer.

That’s the not so good news, the good news is that Miami just gave up 219 on the ground to 2-2 overall and M.E.A.C. savvy cellar dweller Bethune-Cookman. This after having allowed 265 yards rushing to K.State, this after having divulged 174 to “the” Ohio State, and that after having allowed even a high flying pass oriented Maryland club to churn out a buck-fifty-one (151) on the ground on opening weekend. Now, according to my 36 hours of Calc’ and Stats that a bicentennial (202 yards) per game allowed and very user-friendly looking 105^th ranked rushing defense down on So.Beach folks. On top of that they have two back-up Dt’s and one starting De out for our game; or three of their Top-8 overall upfront on defense. That sure seems like being code for an opportunity for the VT rushing attack to get well soon to me.

Ditto, the Hurricane rushing attacks ability to blow the perilously thin VT Dt’s off the line-of-scrimmage. This one is a Dinty Moore meat and potatoes stew of a football game folks. As one football team will get back to basics and cook up a winning recipe down in the trenches whereas the other team won’t be able to take the heat and will have to get outta the kitchen. Or in other words … somebody is gonna go Smith Barney and win this one the old-fashioned way, “they earn it.”

Well, I looked high, and I looked low, and I went back in film-study and looked again. This is just one of those highly unusual OPT weeks where I never found a true film-study, or statically driven match-up edge, or a training-room (injuries) hook upon which to hang my OPT hat. The way I see it, you will see one of five scenarios play out in favor of one team or another and that will pretty much be ballgame in favor of that given side on Saturday come 7pm:

• Does Miami even know when this one kicks-off and therefore will they bother to show up?
• How will such a youngling Virginia Tech football team respond to so much first-tire sophomoric adversity post an ugly L at home vs. Clemson?
• Can Virginia Tech successfully combat the T.Rex sized Hurricane offensive-line?
• Which injured defense will rise to the injury riddled occasion?
• Will J.Harris throw another INT party and invite 11 of his closest O&M defensive friends? He sure did back in 2009 in Lane Stadium.

Recall the very last bullet point above, and now recall the weather in Lane Stadium (see: below) last time Miami rolled into town. Now compare that to Saturday’s forecast. See the difference? Now compare the respective Qb’s and their graphical position on the Learning and Experience Curves alike. See the difference? Now compare the passing offenses in general and try to determine which one is more in synch and generally more advanced overall. Again,  see the difference?

Right now I expect both offenses to move the football; albeit it primary on the ground. VT simply does not match up well at Dt (or even at De) with the ~250 lb. C.Marshall set to start in relief of A.Hop; and the lame (bum ankle) Luther Maddy set to back him up. At the other Dt VT looks good enough; as D.Hop’ can flat out play; however, how long can he play at a high level with no rest whatsoever? On the other side of the running game coin we see a Hurricane stop-unit that blows in rushing defensive terms. On top of that, their best Dt (M.Fortson) is out for the remainder of the 2011 season, and their best Linebacker (R.Buchanan) is also done for the duration. The U has not stopped much of anybody on the ground and their injuries just moved them from bad to worse. Accordingly, go ahead an expect a short(er) looking game as the game-clock should flat out roll with so much rushing from both teams in this one.

“We’re ready to go into Virginia Tech,” Jacory Harris said. “They’re a great team, but we can’t wait.”

In the end this one finally turned upon three things in my book. First up we see an Indian Summer looking New River Valley kinda day that has to make the Sunshine state Hurricanes feel right at home. Then we see two offensive match-up advantages that lean towards and outright favor the ‘Canes respectively. As I said above, Harris has a few mild to maybe even medium sized advantages over L.T. at this stage of the Small-Forward sized phenom’s r-sophomore game. Even if that is much closer to a push than I suspect; Miami does have the bigger, better, meaner, and much much more physically imposing oLine which goes much deeper than VT’s to compound trench-fighting matters all the more. Ergo, I hate it, though I had to side with the Miami oLine, which fields the littlest giant who only goes 6`4“ 305 lbs. To take that train of thought to its fruition, the ‘Cane oLine out-mans VT by a downright staggering 80 lbs. on the nose per man in this one folks! That’s nuts and that is one helluva a right-sized match-up advantage in favor of The U. Surely Coach Golden has gone back and watched the game-tape from last season’s game where Miami simply engulfed Bud Lite upfront for the first 45 minutes of play and then went totally X’s and O’s insane. Sorry to say it, yet Miami is the carnivore and VT is the omnivore at best in this one folks.

Virginia Tech=17, Miami=26

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street