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#12 Virginia Tech @ n/r Duke

TV coverage: 12:30pm on the A.c.c. Network
Vegas Line: VT favored by 15 points
over/under=54 points
$-Line: VT is a 6.5:1 favorite, Duke is a 1:4.75 underdog

7-1 @ 3-4.

1^st place in the Coastal Division at 3-1 vs. tied for 4^th place in the Coastal at 1-2.

^That’s^ what this one is really all about folks –as Virginia Tech does indeed control its own destiny in terms of re-matching with Clemson down in Charlotte, North Carolina on 03^rd December 2011 A.D.

Win out and VT is back in the A.c.c. championship football game as the defending 2010 A.c.c. football champion. Catch instead of pitch and VT could very well need some Coast help in order to get back to Charlotte.

Ergo, it is time to start minding the standings store and cheer for Clemson to put Georgia Tech outta our Coast misery this very weekend down in the ATL on Saturday night at 8pm; and then to  root for Florida State to do the same to Miami in two weeks time in Coral Gables.

I’m not shy on help, and if I were a betting man –which I am- I’d wager that Frank is not either; even if he can not say that he is cheering for Clemson and Florida State respectively out in public.

In point of fact, I’d wager that behind the O&M scenes that he (Frank Beamer) is cheering for them rather enthusiastically this go ‘round. As deep down Frank dang well knows that his defense is beat all to hell, that his two Beamerball legs and his much vaunted Qb, are, at the end of the day, downright sophomoric or less as class rank goes (Branthover is a t-freshman).

Will all three of them avoid messing the late game O&M bed in the clutch as November opens for business? Time will tell, however, that is a whole lotta youth and therefore inexperience with a whole lotta Hokie defensive help mummified and wrapped up in white athletic-tape on the Jamerson Athletic Center training table right about now.

This leaves us closing out Autumn 2011 with only one game left in which Bud Lite can hopefully physically  shape-up; likewise that leaves us with only one game remaining for our stud Qb, Kicker and Punter to continue to progress as fourth-quarter game changers and if need be to grow-up a bit as I have the feeling that at least two of them are gonna find out what they are made of with under 5 minutes left to play in the next 25 odd days.

That games name is Duke.

“I can’t remember one (season)” being worse.”
-Frank Beamer on VT’s 2011 injury binge-

Yup, pretty much.
Which has again left me wondering out-loud if we will ever learn to moderate or monitor playing-time for the 1’s or the starters?

Top–10:

1. One. As in VT only has 1 home game left outta their 5 or 6 remaining contests –such will leave VT as either road-warriors or road-weary once 2011 is all said and done.
2. Two. As in Duke has been out-gained by VT head-to-head by 235 yards on average since 2004.
3. Thirty. Meaning: Due has dropped no less than 42 straight games vs. nationally ranked opponents by 30 points on average since 1994.
4. Four. As in Duke as already attempted a eye-popping 4 onside kick-offs this season (recovering 3 of them –as the VT up-men need to be on red-alert for this).
5. Five. VT is 22-5 out on the road in A.c.c. play since 2oo4.
6. 260. Meaning: Logan Thomas is the very first Qb in the quarter century history of Beamerball to pass for 260+ yards in three consecutive football games ever!
7. 1,037. “four’s” yearly rushing total thus far making David Wilson the thirteenth Rb to bust the millennium mark in Frank Beamer’s hall of fame VT career.
8. Eighty-five. Meaning: the stat below is indeed driven by the fact that VT has enjoyed no less than five different offensive drives that have covered 85 yards or more this season.
9. Nine. As in VT holds a 9:24 edge in Time of Possession (TOP) over their opponents on average this season. (BONUS: Duke is actually 11th in TOP, therefore, controlling the ball will be a storyline here folks) (DOUBLE BONUS: Bud Lite has fielded a record setting 19 different individual defensive starters already this season!)
10. Ten. VT has won 10 straight out on the road. No other D-1 football team can best that! (BONUS: Duke is a well disciplined team, as they are 10^th best in fewest penalties whistled against this season)

Duke Offense: Pro Set 2 or 3 wide, (8-starters back)
The Duke offense is just about as imbalanced (pass-happy) of an offense as we will see all season long. Although the Dukies are a nifty 22^nd best in passing offense, they are only 110^th best in rushing offense. Meaning only ten other D-1 NC2A football schools do an even worse job of carrying the mail. Of course, this means one thing and one thing only, Duke is one-dimensional as a purebred passing attack goes. That plays delightfully right into the hands of Bud Foster’s very depleted stop-troops one remaining strength; the VT Secondary. So go ahead and expect lottsa Nickle, some Dime, and even some 30-sets outta Bud Lite this week. Further, don’t expect to see much in the way of Bud Lite cracking the Whip or Mr. N.Dew on Saturday. As Bud Lite must now look to reinvent itself for the third or forth time in-season this year. That’s the bad news, the good news is that what Coach Cutcliff likes to do (throw the ball around) is just about the only rock that Bud Lite has left in it’s pocket, as VT can flat out get after the passer at 10^th best in Sacks and 31^st best in tackles for a loss (TFL), with 3 to 5 professional looking prospects in the well stocked VT secondary behind all of that. And guess what folks? This passer is injured…

Sean Renfree may be the best A.c.c. Qb that you’ve never heard of. He is a tallish 2-guard sized 6`5“ 229 lb. r-junior pivot from Scottsdale Arizona who can throw that rock. Sean is a heady academic all-A.c.c. Qb who is not known for his arm strength although he was ranked as the 10<sup>th</sup> best overall Qb prospect outta high school in America by Scout. Sean has also not been the healthiest Qb in the A.c.c., what with a ugly A.C.L. blow-out in mop-up duty in 2009 and a hip injury last week vs. Wake. God Bless, as Sean is listed a “probable” for this one). Don’t be too surprised if you see a second Duke Qb (Tony Boone, 6` 240 lbs.) who is a short-yardage meat-n-potatoes tough yardage specialist from Coach Cutcliff as down-n-distance dictates; and you might see more if him if Renfree is feeling 1960’s Woodstock or hippy indeed.

The Duke oLine has one fringe all-A.c.c. candidate (Kyle Hill) at the left or blindside Ot spot. After that it’s pretty thin looking upfront on offense for the Dukies. Pun intended, as one Duke oLine starter only goes 270 lbs. (left-G Brian Moore) and the Duke starting Center is only listed at 260 lbs. (Bryan Morgan). The Duke pass-catchers have one quality guy, Connor Vernon, and guess what? Mr. Vernon has a bad hammie right now, although he too is expect to suit up and give it a go for Virginia Tech. Duke’s rushing attack is manned Jawaun Thompson who has had a very difficult time cracking the 60 yard barrier per contest this season. And guess what again? He too is hobbled, this time with a lame foot (albeit probable for our game). In other words, there are about 3 guys here who could crack VT’s offensive 2-deep: Renfree as a back-up Qb, Vernon as a back-up Se, and Mr. Hill as a back-up to DeChris at Ot. Note that I can not even find a single potential Dukie transfer starting caliber candidate outta the entire first-string Duke offensive depth-chart. Normally I can dig up one, maybe even two guys who could beat out their O&M counterparts, even for a lower echelon A.c.c. football rival. Right now this is just a very suspect looking Duke offense beyond the passing game of Mr. Renfree himself. Their oLine is basically 12^th best outta 12 in A.c.c. terms and other than Mr. Vernon, the rest of the Duke offensive units not named Renfree are not much ahead of that.

In terms of pure X’s and O’s: I’m seeing a bit of the spread look from the shotgun set with an H-back and the typical spread based accouterments of 2 or 3 fulltime Wr’s and a single Rb or even the lesser seen empty backfield with no Rb’s at all. To make things all the more exotic, I saw the deepest Pistol look (~9 yards) that I’ve ever seen anywhere in all of pigskin playbook terms. This Duke offense is nothing if not thick in play-book alignment based terms as Coach Roper will show Bud Lite numerous offensive set or formations quite plural indeed as the game wears on. Look for Renfree to throw the ball around in this one, as Duke employs something of a medium stretch which uses most of the field horizontally and vertically inside a 20-25 yard box downfield from the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). Duke attempts to use the passing game to open up some Delays and some play-actions later on for some inside-zone work from the Duke Rb’s after Renfree has worked you over and loosened you up through the air.  Renfree is averaging just south of 45 pass attempts per contest since mid-September when Duke kicked its passing game up a full notch, maybe even more than one notch now that I think about it. And the more that I think about it you could very well see Renfree attempt north of 45 passes in this one, all the more so if Duke spends most of the Durham afternoon chasing VT on the scoreboard. If Renfree gets sizzling hot there is just barely enough individual Duke offensive talent, and more than enough schematic or play-calling differentiation for Duke to hang around for a couple or quarters and change in this one. Other than that, Duke could very well find themselves hard pressed to break the double-digit barrier presuming Bud Lite is fired up, ready to play, and wins the Turnover Margin battle by their typical +2 margin or better. (overall Duke Offensive letter-grade: a lower level flat-C, would have been a very healthy C+ with a healthy Renfree, Vernor and some Rb love)

Duke Defense: 3-4 base, (6 starters back)
In their base defense, you will see Duke line-up in a 3-4-4 look with shell-3 behind all of that and off or soft-man on the edges. Observe that the shell is nearly linear, and therefore not an umbrella like say Boston College plays.

Saw a little 4-2-5 outta the Dukes, and some more traditional 4-3-4, with their back to the wall or down inside the Red Zone. Did not see much in the way of physical tacking downfield however, and namedrops Boykina and surely Davis to me. Ditto the fact that I saw Duke giving up several homerun hitting shots on long-balls right down the middle between the hashmarks vs. 3 different opponents in film-study. This of course suggest some post patterns an go routes on the inner edge of the two seams closes to the Duke Fs.

Wanna emphasize ^that^, as I just watched the F.S.U. game (Friday AM) and I saw the exact same thing. Duke is vulnerable right down the pike or right down the middle; as it does not take a lot to get behind the Duke Safeties, and the fact that their Ss is lone won’t be helping any of this, not one iota. Also have to emphasize that I saw more 4-2-5 outta Duke vs. Florida State last week on film. I have to presume that that will be the case this weekend due to the skill position (i.e. talent) similarities between VT and F.S.U. Likewise; I saw a Dulie stop-unit that appeared to be games plural away from getting comfortable with this 4-2-5 look and setting in into the same. As these Dukies were lined-up incorrectly pre-snap at times and their downfield geometry or angles and leverage were left wanting accordingly. Thus posits the opportunity for some homerun hitting plays outta the Tech offense presuming our Hokies can catch Duke outta alignment or pursuing from way to acute (shallow) or way too oblique (wide) angles downfield.

I did observer that Duke’s seeming off or soft man-to-man on the edges tightens up or closes the cushion on the edges as the Duke stop-unit enters their very own defensive red-zone. That said, before this happens, I’d expect a healthy diet of screening, hitches, and short-outs to take advantage of the off-man, lack of Duke secondary size or physicality and the lack of Duke tackling early-on. There really should be some opportunity for the VT Wideouts to make some plays here; presuming the weather does allow.

Ultimately, this is not a very good Duke defense, it is not a very physical –tackling or at the point of attack Duke defense, and this is not a very athletic Duke defense to boot. In fact, I struggled to I.D. a single hook upon which to hang a 2001 Duke stop-unit hat in film-study for this one. I can tell you for certain that his Duke defensive unit is looking flimsier in the last 5 weeks since I watch them play Boston College way back in September. “Yes”, they have had a few injuries: their starting Ss (Butler), their best De (Anunike) both out, with their top back-up Secondary player (Watkins) hurting as well. Still, this is a Duke defensive that looks like Gashtalt Theory in reveres as they clearly are less than the sum of their stop-unit parts. Although it is prolly fair to tell that they are a bit out-of-synch X’s and O’s wise with some schematic changes in-season (a 3-4 to a 4-2-5 with some 3-4-4 as well). They also have the look and feel of a stop-unit that is letting go the rope; and that white-flag or surrender oriented mentality can be much much more deadly that 3 player’s worth of personnel attrition. Notice that Duke has allowed 451 total yards per game on average since October 1^st. If you take the time to look that up that would peg this 2011 Duke stop-unit in a dead-heat with U.N.L.V. for 111^th best as total defense goes in nationwide D-1 terms. That’s a far cry from their current 77^th best overall total defensive national ranking right now. The kicker here is that it is not like Duke has been playing full-throttle or killer Oregon Duke ‘esque offenses. They have played Florida International (67^th in total O), Florida State (38^th in Total O), and Wake Forest (70^th in total O). That’s not exactly running the proverbial gauntlet or murder’s row. Nevertheless, Duke has nearly be slaughtered by the big-play in recent weeks, 3 rushes of 25+ yards and 6 throws in excess of an even 50 in the air in their last eight quarters of scrimmaging is a surefire sign of a defense that his hemorrhaging big-plays right before our very eyes.

Ergo, I formally look for and likewise formally predict that my boy David Wilson has a shot to set his season-high for broken tackles and rushing yards alike in this one. Ditto L.T. who has a very competitive shot at tricentennial or 3oo yard passing day; presuming O’Cain and company keep the O&M pedal to the metal for the duration. (overall Duke defensive letter-grade: a very high D-, on the strength of having been almost decent early in the year)

Duke special-teams: (both specialists return)
The Duke special teams ain’t great, and they ain’t half bad either. Very vanilla, pedestrian, middleocore if you will. Note that the Dukies have used 2 FG Kickers this year, and although senior Will Synderwine missed the B.C. game due to injury, the FG, P.A.T. and kickoff jobs alike are basically his. Coming into this season, Synderwine was 38 of 44 on career F.G.A.’s and most had him tabbed as first or second-string all-A.c.c. Kicker before the season began. However, a badly sprained right-ankle had other plans for the potential all-A.c.c. Kicker, hence his suspect looking o for 4 start on FGA’s to begin the year. That said the week off at B.C. seems to have helped as Synderwine is now 6 of his last 6 which is much more true to his lofty career form, even if his attempt distance has been truncated to a 40 yard maximum range as he is still recovering some measure of heath in his hobbled right-ankle. That said, do note that the r-senior Kicker is 100% for his career (71-71) on P.A.T.’s. Finally note that there is something very first-school electric tabletop yellow-plastic football Kicker about his kicking form. Anybody seen my little beige felt football?

Punting is handled by Alexander King. Who enjoys a very stately average of 43 yards per punt; despite having one blocked which counts as negative yardage last week vs. Wake. Nevertheless, this kid has a big leg and has shown even bigger improvement as he has added nearly a full fledged 6 yards to each punt since last season on average. The Duke coverage teams are mixed. Punt coverage is a middle of the road 62^nd best, although KO coverage is 6^th best in the entire NC2A making the Duke suicide-squad the best one that we will face all year long. The Dukie return teams are moderate, as they go 69^th best in kickoff returns and 84^th best in punt returns. As you might expect, one thing that Duke does not enjoy an abundance of is raw athletic D.N.A. S.A.T. D.N.A.? Sure, Duke heady enough and always enjoys plenty of that. Lottsa stud fast-twitch muscle fiber? Beyond hoops, not so much. (overall Duke special-teams letter-grade: C+, would be a half letter-grade higher if I was sure Synderwine’s right-ankle is right with the world, as he might still yet be a professional grade Kicker)

Beating Princeton in the opening round of the N.I.T. @home, ... is all about what? Out-athleting Princeton on O, just like all the other name teams the Tigers have played this year already have. Staying focused on defense and out-defending the sneaky Princeton O. View Results  Loading ...

Conclusion(s), illation, OPT digits:
The Giving Tree.

That’s my children’s book metaphor for the 2011 VT football season; at least in defensive terms heretofore. As in how many more defensive starters can go down (and possibly out) before Bud Lite gives-out for this season? (note: Blacksburg source’s plural say that ‘Zo Tweedy won’t be back prior to Georgia Tech at the earliest)

That (remaining) seasonal caveat firmly in place … this may not be the week to find out, as I did not see anything overtly worrisome about Duke in breaking tape. Partially because Duke is Uno-dimensional by definition on offense, and partially because Duke’s top-3 offensive skill position players have all taken an insalubrious page from the wounded Bud Lite play-book and are in fact dinged up themselves for this one. This Duke offensive car will turn-over, it will start-up and then it will run outta gasoline somewhere in the second-half of participation, even if it does red-line and burn a little rubber vs. Bud Lite for the opening series or three. The Duke Defense is reasonable enough against the run. As their front-7 hustles and plays to the echo of the whistle in pursuit of the football. That said, don’t let that 48^th national ranking in combating the run as the Duke defensive ground-troops go fool you. The Dukie defense has actually worsened by 70 yards per game on the ground in their last three contests vs. quasi pass-happy teams! Behind that, we see a Dukie secondary with 1 minor all-star candidate (Fs, Matty Daniels) and a Ss (Lee Butler), who has not played since September and according to my sources is about a week away from returning to action. Or in other words, we not only see a Duke hind-4 that is a very user-friendly 1o5^th ranked in pass efficiency defense, and 102^nd ranked in passing yardage allowed, they are also smallish and they are now physically beat up right down the middle where they have been nothing short of porous during this 2011 campaign. Ergo, this looks like a very fine chance for L.T. to sharpen his aerial assault for  if/when it is indeed needed to close things out down the stretch in the ATL or at home vs. U.N.C.

When you study this 2011 incarnation of Duke, you quickly realize that they have been walking the razor’s edge, with 4 games decided by 4 points or less already on the season. Typically that’s a built in post-season alibi for what could have been, as the party-line typically reads “so-n-so only was beaten by a combined 16 points by four different teams last year.” So close yet so far away, or the little engine that could (not) if you will. Right now Duke is .5oo or 2-2 in those four ≤4 point game thus far this campaign. To me, that’s playing just a bit over their heads from what I’m seeing on film –as when you analyze those game individually you discover that Duke was outgained by a whopping 184 yards vs. Florida International and still won the contest by 4 points. That avers that this Dukie football squad is much closer to really being 1-3 in close games this season than they are to getting the better of being even-Steven and going 3-1 for their close-game competitive troubles.

Curiously enough, Duke has scored less than 16 points only once this year, and likewise Duke has allowed less than 23 points only once this season as well.

Consequently, it would appear that Duke is more than capable of somehow manufacturing double-digits points vs. a highly depleted Bud Lite defense; similarly, it would also appear that there is no way this side of O&M collapse or some sorta over the top technical malfunction that VT will notch less than 24 on the Wallace Wade Stadium scoreboard Saturday afternoon. Everything sans the Duke home-field and Hokie health itself suggest a rather healthy looking Hokie victory to me…

• VT has the better O? Check.
• VT has the better (albeit it beat-up) D? Check.
• VT has the better and more electric special-teams? Check.
• VT has no small weather.com rainy day forecasted edge? Check.
• VT wins this one? Check. As you still can not spell VicTory with out the V to the T.

Virginia Tech=33, Duke=11

“LET’S GO!”

“HOKIES!”

b’street