Your 2o23 Belmont Stakes Preview!!!
Belmont fans of NY State Racing…
Stake(s) you claim now down below. Tell me who will win and do so TOS 1,000% FREE! Pop dat Belmont Jewel bling, “…my way.” As here we are in the third leg of the 2o23 Triple Crown and for the first time in the triune equine rally… we may just have *the* full-field on our hands; or, instead on our hooves. As the big boys have (finally) turned out and appear ready to turn up and turn blueblood heads in the erstwhile quaint little village of Belmont, NY. (Belmont is an 856 populus village within the town of Amity; ‘nyet comrades’, not that Amity; thank God—oh the horror). However, this one is run @Belmont Park down in Elmont, New York which is down in northwestern Hempstead in Nassau County, New York which is right up against the Borough of Queens, NY. Got it? Nonetheless, what you wanna know is… who is gonna win the longest leg of the 2o23 Triple Crown racing season, right? So, read on… to finds, out!
Belmont Basics:
- Actual approaching time listed as: 6:5o p.m. EDT. Or, 7:02 for the start itself.
- Telly coverage will be on FOX. (OBSERVE: not on N.B.C.!)
- This will be a Grade I stakes race with a purse of $1.5 million.
- Tom Durkin -who retired in 2o14- will come out of retirement to call the Belmont Stakes for the first time since the 2o1o edition.
Long–Islanders 1o1:
The Belmont Stakes is an American Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. It is run over the worldwide classic grueling distance of 1½ miles (2,400 m). i.e., a marathon, not a sprint.
Colts and geldings carry a weight of 126 pounds (57 kg); fillies carry 121 pounds (55 kg). The race, nicknamed The Test of the Champion, The Test of Champions, and The Run for the Carnations, is the traditional third and final leg of the Triple Crown. It is usually held on the first or second Saturday in June, five weeks after the Kentucky Derby and three weeks after the Preakness Stakes. The 1973 Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown winner Secretariat holds the track record (which is also a world record on dirt) of 2:24.
The race covers one full lap of Belmont Park, known as “The Championship Track” because nearly every major American champion in racing history has competed on the racetrack. Belmont Park, with its large, wide, sweeping turns, softer surface, and long homestretch, is considered one of the fairest racetracks in America. Despite the elongated distance, the race tends to favor horses with tactical speed: relatively few winners close from far behind to nick the early leaders.
“The neeeeeeeed… the need for speed.” —Duck, Duck, Goose?
In generic terms… a legit speed horse typically tallies a Beyer of between 1o5 and 115 points.
In all-time terms, Secretariat popped clean for the highest ‘Crown figure ever of: 139!
There have only been two, that’s (2) ponies ≥12o Beyer in the last decade.
The record for the highest consecutive Beyer Speed figure is held by Groovy, the 1987 American Champion Sprint Horse who earned 133 and 132 in back-to-back races; w0w!
Easy Goer also ran a 122 in winning the 1989 Belmont Stakes, the best Beyer Speed Figure in any Triple Crown race since these ratings were first published in 1987.
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Triple Crown races is around ~11o.
And the k.Derby’s highest Beyer -ever- was 118.
Winning Preakness Beyer Par: 1o2.
The average winning figure for the last 10 runnings of the Belmont is 1o2; from 1992 through 2oo1, the average was 1o7.
The decline is due in part to the sub-par 3-year-old crops in recent years, and also to the fact that fewer U.S. thoroughbreds possess pedigrees suited to less than the 1-n-a- ½-mile distance.
***
In Betting Thoroughbreds, Steve Davidowitz found that (in 1974), “the top-figure horse wins 35 percent of the time,”…
K?
Now, this year’s Belmont Stakes you ask?
Well, this year’s Belmont Stakes figures between 77 and 1o4.
“77” is the lowest career best in the Field I could find: (Il Miracolo) and “1o4” tops per Angel of Empire.
With only Angel of Empire hitting north of the ‘average’ Belmont-winning Beyer—
(and with Forte jus’ missing by 2 points).
Size, errrrr, ahhhhh, Length; matters!
…do not forgets, 32o (1-4oo) is the average DIST or distancing digit in horsing-around. Likewise, 32o is your magic WET or mudder number if/when it percips on the NY-blue-bloods, grass. (However, some favor 28o or higher for at least modest positive slippy/sloppy consideration(s) here FYI).
Therefore, ergo, to wit… when you look at the pedigrees of recent Belmont Stakes winners and you find 14 of the last 16 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of 1 1/8 miles or farther.
Tele•Paddock:
- Historically, the betting favorite has won the Belmont Stakes 42.9% of the time (66 of 154 running’s) and four of the last five editions!
- Curiously… 2o% of the time the Rail horse has won the Belmont Stakes in the modern era. (i.e., post (pardon the pun) 196o).
- Even mucho mo’ curiously— there are a, well, ‘slew’ (pardon the Seattle pun) or a whole mess of quality mudders if/when it precips here. Seven, that’s (7) or a whopping 78% of Prancing in the Rain ponies who appear to like it… wet.
- MOST curiously, however, is this Belmont field’s (seeming) want for long-legs or finishing-kick per pure distancing runners here. As only 3 (maybe 4) horses look like they have the rangy or distance breeding in place for the Logo-3 depth of the Belmont Stakes.
- Last year and Mo Donegal was the winner of the 2o22 Belmont Stakes. Donegal’s win gave jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. his second Belmont Stakes win and trainer Todd Pletcher his fourth Belmont Stakes win, his sixth win overall in a Triple Crown race.
- Since 2o16, the betting favorite or the second-betting favorite has won every Belmont Stakes less one. Chalk does very well here historically.
- Avg. Winning Odds: 4.04-1 or a 4o4% R.O.I. historically.
…Win, Place, or Show…
Additionally, there are quite a few pickers who are race week warming to: Arcangelo (Itie speak for: Archangel) with Javier Castellanoa on board to net 2 outta 3 legs of the ’23 Triple Crown as a Jockey. Arcangelo is a ‘stalker’ by trade and that could fit a latent run swell enough here. Likewise, he won @Belmont Park just 4-weeks back. He is also trained by Jena Antonucci, who will try to become the first wimminz trainer to win the Belmont. Dianne Carpenter saddled Kingpost to a second-place finish in the 1988 edition for the highest finish by a she-trainer…
A few others are saying: battling Bobby Baffert’s Preakness winning: National Treasure: hits for 66.7% of this year’s Trip’ Crown in four-legged terms…
As rankings go… Forte (#1 last year and #1 earlier last year) is back after suffering a hoof bruise that has seen him sidelined for the initial two Triune Crown offerings thus far this ’23 season. He does have Talent(s)— the only wonderment is… does he have all four legs under him at this stage? As he did stumble during a workout this week raising a few red flags, again…
Also, Angel of Empire is drawing some looksee’s as the third choice at 7-2 and will wear blinkers to keep him focused. He finished third in the Derby and is one of three, that’s (3) horses in the race trained by Brad Cox. (1. Tapit Shoes, 7. Hit Show, and 8. Angel Empire among ’em). Collusion or teamwork ‘pending upon which side you are on…
Finally, Red Route One and the aforementioned Preakness Champ’ (National Treasure) are the two coming in on the shortest rest and might not have the longest legs for it later on here.
Belmont Stakes qualifying:
Horses who finished Top-3 in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes are granted auto-bids in the Belmont if they choose to run. Beyond that, every horse wishing to run must pay a series of entry fees (adding up to over $30,000) and be nominated into the field, which can hold as many as 14 horses. 6 conference winners and then up to 8 at-large-bids in NC2A terms if you will.
Loading ...The call…
…so, unlike the first two legs of the 2o23 Triple Crown season, this III leg has nearly full-fledged leg-up on the prior ⅔’rds. As this final third is the first third that is three-thirds or fully, cooked.
This Belmont Stakes is everything Talent/Field wise that the ’23 k.Derby ever wanted to be.
As this is the first time this triune thoroughbred racing season that (pretty much) all the big names are here. All the big-Trainers, all the big-Jockeys and all the big-Quadrapeds alike.
As in… no other endeavor outside of European royalty do bloodlines and pedigree matter more than in horse racing. Who’s your daddy (and: momma-bear) does indeed mean something equine-wise here. This means that this is the most top-heavy field of the three so far, by faaaaaar.
–oOo–
The downright squirrely pony-picking caveat however being… unlike the Preakness and the Derby, there are not really any Distance or epically elongated equines in play here who truly longest-leg, rate.
Go fig’ on the cache of south of 32o (DIST) entrants?
This means that this is a good time to not try to time anything really heavy here.
1u or so if you really feel horsing around froggy.
The Pick(s):
- Forte (1u to Show),
- Hit Show (1u to Show),
- Tapit Trice (1u to Show).
#wimps!
#BabyYodaMustDie!
please support the VT F.C.A.!!!
“LETS GO!”
“Hokies!”
bourbonstreet**
^^^”THX” @Coach God
❗️
^^^