Tech Thoughts: Belmont Stakes, triped out or not?

Three legs or bust!

Triple crown or 2/3rds!

Here we go again horse racing fans…

24 times on the triple turned into a double?

Or do we finally take the third-leg of horse racing’s crown jewel and turn the Triple Trick for the first time since 1978 and Affirmed?

Belmont spreadsheet 15

As it stacks up, I see this as a 3 horse race. Maybe, kinda, sort, possibly, you could be really elastic at make a stretch (see the pun) case for Frosted and/or Madefronlucky, if either pony carts a perfect trip. And it is worth pointing out, both horses are as fresh as they can be in terms of potentially doing so.

Nevertheless, I do see 2 formidable contenders not named American Pharoah in this year’s Belmont Stakes.

    • Mubtaahij: this horse I like and have liked for several months | every bit as much as I thought this pony would be further along in terms of down the accomplishment trail proper by the first week in June? A fickle sport this sport of King’s; n’est-ce pas?That being said, Mubtaahij is the Arab horse who has been training and and presumably fully acclimated to the States for weeks quite plural (by now).  Some will have me point out that this is more of a truf or Euro flavored lawn mowing machine. Point Given, pun intended; as Pt.Given was the last best hope to win the Triple Crown in my book. Though I digress, as this Arabian however is no bad value lay at approximately 12:1 or better, dirt v. turf arguments or not. As 12:1 (or better) on the best pure distance pedigree in the grueling 1.5 mile Belmont Stakes is a bad idea since 1/2 past when?
    • Materiality: got off to a bad start at the Kentucky Derby and that was that. Well, other than the fact that this horse appeared to have plenty left in the tank and was moving up the field and rather well, rather late. Should have more in the tank than Am.Pharoah with a five-week layoff after skipping the Preakness Stakes. Good jockey, good trainer, very solid sire bloodlines (dame is a little thinner); and the best Beyer Speed number in the entire Belmont field (including AM)! Second best distance mark and has only missed finishing in the money; once.
    • American Pharoah: or anthropomorphizing 1o1. As I truly thought I quite literally saw the signature Eye of the Tiger gone Rocky Balboa desire to win in the Preakness Stakes last time out from AmP. That said, there are several very interesting objective reports about how this pony is actually the slowest opening twin leg winner of the Triple Crown in quite some time.That’s a little unnerving, and so is the fact that you could have bet the “No Triple Crown winner” Vegas prop line 37 straight years since 1978 and won yourself at 1:2 odds 37 straight times in a row! Streaks are indeed made to be broken, though that streak is trendy indeed. And yet, this is the most well-rounded racehorse in the field gents; make no mistake on that. AmP scores B- to A- across each and everyone of my handicapping metrics. Although it remains to be seen if this horse is truly great; it is well known that this is a horse sans any real live flaws or weaknesses.

      good to Great???
      good to Great???

The skinny:
The takeaway here -at least to me- is that this is a two horse marathon (not a sprint) between American Pharoah and Materiality, which could indeed widen into a 3way dance if Mubtaahij takes to the dirt up in New York state.


Right now I gotta give the historic nod to Materiality to high jinx or maybe even outright highjack yet another Triple Crown run by the eminently likeable American Pharoah. 4 starts in 8 weeks along the way to becoming the 12th ever Triple Crown winner is asking a lot of any modern day racehorse.

That however is not what I am asking of this animal on Saturday; as all I am asking is a Show bet for this one and from the other two distance runners up above. Or just like Meatloaf once said (at these odds): “Two outta three ain’t bad.”

  1. W=Materiality
  2. P= American Pharoah
  3. S=Mubtaahij 

Belmont odds

Buy or Sell: ...American Pharoah will take home the Triple Crown!

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American Pharoah=Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Belmont=???




16 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Slow sell b’

    Like your thinking. All metrics indicate the 3 race horse in 8 weeks is at a disadvantage (AmP). However, the under raced horse (Mubtaahij) hasn’t “really” shown much nor has “Materiality”. On any given day, is the problem in handicapping this race. My Friday night bet is; (drum roll please, j/k!)
    1. Mubtaahij
    2. Materiality
    2a. American Pharoah

    Track conditions are expected to be good. If that changes…..

    1. Only other 2 would be Frosted and/or Madefronlucky.

      Though they need the right lane, pace, and a really clean trip.

      That said…………”stranger things have……..”

      Thx for reading @both!

      1. And then you’re looking at a quixotic 5 horse panorama! AND I really think that about describes the Belmont. Everyone who has any H. racing interest, is torn between heart and brain. The problem is, brain can’t can’t get grasped around reality because reality doesn’t “exist”. Small field, history of TC final race, animal race history; it’s all over the place!

    2. Triple Crown is incredibly hard to accomplish; especially in today breeding world where endurance is all but forgotten and speed is all that matters. However, this year I think Pharoah does it. Why, lack of competition primarily and he is that much better than the competition. Not many real distance horses waiting for the Belmont this year too. Even is the track goes bad, Pharoah loves the mud. Biggest competition will come from Tale of Verve. Gary Stevens is up and NO ONE knows how to save a horse for the end like him. If his horse has anything in the tank this Saturday, Stevens will get it out of him. Pharoah seals his place in history today, but is not an historic race horse like the last three Triple Crown Winners (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed).

      1. “Triple Crown is incredibly hard to accomplish; especially in today breeding world where endurance is all but forgotten and speed is all that matters.”

        ^that’s it^. Right ^there^.
        Bingo that.

        And yah; I would have to agry.
        This 3-year old field (less a sickly Dortmund) never quite materialized.
        Now, don’t get me ‘rong, that’s not AmPharaoah’s fault.

        Though he is a bottom 10% tripWinner if this happens.
        (good take there as well).


  2. My sister pointed out that Mubtaahij really hasn’t run any greater distance than any other horse; however, he did run longer distances earlier. HE was running 1- 1/8 while others were 7f or miles.

    She also likes the wild play on Frammento. Shoeless Nick has the knack for squirreling away a horse in Saratoga and dropping them on the Belmont for unpredictable wins (Birdstone and Da’Tara) to destroy Triple Crown coronations (Smarty Jones and Big Brown).

    1. Now there is an insider’s take. (squirreling away a runner)
      Godspeed at your sister Newt.

      May the Horse be with you!

  3. Would love to finally see a Triple Crown winner. However, Materiality has this one……book it, Dano.

    1. Oh me too Sir!

      I have 2u on those 3 above apiece to win; and to show.

      I’m good with this TripWin.
      Horse racing is epic great for it; if/when it eventually happens.
      (be manny Pac giving money-May a total fit in equivalence)

      thx for reading!

  4. Dens fried chickens ain’t got button to do with Charlie and the driver. No how Wes Gina to dat horse fass

  5. Like your thoughts, but…

    – I think Madefromlucky is entered by Pletcher to keep the pace honest & to benefit Materiality stalking AP so I see the 3 tiring.

    – I think Frosted makes the distant in the Super IF he can keep his eyes on the track & not the stands

    – I would rate the trainer on the 1 higher & the speed lower than you…which makes us a push. Solidly in the Tri, though

    – My long shot….Keen Ice IF Madefromlucky presses the pace like I’m guessing

    – Hoping for AP to overcome the history, but he’ll probably be nosed out by the 8 because Pletcher lives to beat Baffert.

    1-5-8 / 1-5-6-8 / 1-5-6-7-8 / 1-5-6-7-8

    Thanks for your write-up!

    1. No the thanks is all mine!

      One of the better more pensive replies in a post this year.
      Bonne chance on those ‘fectas sir.


  6. b’, Newt, Esq,

    Any morning updates, scratches, track conditions, warm-ups? Esq., like your picks. Newt, didn’t you say your sister was like 100 for 100 in TC race picks over the last 30 years or so? May have to look at a sideline with Frammento.

    1. Well I have two sisters. My oldest sister is the head of the Keeneland Research Library ( She’s the one who started a program to preserve and digitize every issue of the DRF going back to 1875 or so. She, however, is not the star picker. My younger sister is the one who started the family Triple Crown Fantasy Challenge. She is quite a handicapper. At one time she finished in the top 100 out of 20,000 people in the Churchill Fantasy Stables contest. She goes by “The Annoyed Handicapper.” She specializes in breeding and its impact on the sport.

      She’s the one making a case for Frammento. But you have to understand that she is currently trailing my son’s dog, Tyson, in the Ryder Family contest and needs to make a big move today…Frammento will be the longest odds on the board.

      Here’s the thing, anyone can make a case for any horse in this type of race. They are all fine horses. They have to be to be in this sort of race.

      Another thing that I know is that A.P. didn’t run fast times, but he ran what he needed to run. In fact, his last race was stronger than the Derby race. If you look back at the Preakness tape, Victor had a hard time pulling A.P. up after the race. He wanted to keep going. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on. I also think that we are likely to see the real Frosted and Materiality today since it’s a regular to small sized field.

      Weak field? I say not. This has been a very strong early season. Lotsa fine horses…not just one or two. A. P. has earned his wins.

      1. Agreed. AmPh is actually the horse to beat in my mind. I guess I can’t get over the 30+ year TC hex. Just always seems like some “hinder” makes that BIG move in the down stretch and kills the TC moment. Maybe not today but…. Back to my original thoughts, with a good track, it should be AmPh, Materiality and Mubtaahji & Frosted as the mix, IMHO.

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