#54 R.P.I. Virginia Tech @ #98 R.P.I.  Purdue:

Today’s word of the day is… heady

head·y

(hĕd′ē)

As don’t get all Washington Irving’s Ichabod Crane and go all Sleepy Hollow on this one men. Because if we do sleep on an improved Purdue football club we will have an icky looking game to break tape on come Sunday night.

As Purdue may not be great, though neither is our incoming health;
and that means Purdue is suddenly within reach.

Purdue Defense: (starters back=) forty-thee base

• 4-3 base set with a stand-up 2-point stance Will side De.
• defensively 13th in sacks and 2nd in TFL!!!
• 3rd in Fumbles recovered, will strip the rock.
• More press short-side with medium-man off-side. Very deep Safeties, off my screen at times pre-snap. (i.e. at least 15 yard cushion) Fs=deeper centerfielder almost full-time.
• Will use a uniform depth (’bout 7-8 yards) quad umbrella cover-0 look.
• Lb’s have a lotta fake-blitz overages, almost squandering looking on the needed change of direction (forward to reverse) on film. Lb’s did not blitz a ton, though they will stunt and twist-loop in tandem when they do.
• Will overshift Lb’s at least a Gap or two wide-side.
• Boilmaker D did not contain a rushing Qb well on film, in particular on ad-lib pass protect unscripted runs.
• 1 big ole 260 lb. bulky looking MLb on film.
• better and more experienced at Cb than S.
• average tackling team on breaking-tape (not good/bad)
• Did show a perfectly even 4-4 set at times on tape, with a mega deep Fs behind it and island tight-man outside. Even saw a 3-4 in obvious passing downs.
• Did not see anything truly stop-unit individually superlative here on film any more than I did not see any truly glaring defensive individual weaknesses, either.
  That said, Purdue sure does make some collective Gap-jumping stops behind the L.O.S. Making you chase on down-n-distance and face Lo.FM’s© galore.
• 30th best at 26% 3rd down conversion allowed, however. Clearly there is something Gestalt Theory going on re: this Purdue stop-squad.

 Defensive letter-grade(s):

Boilmakers Offense: Gun single-back set, 3 or 4 wide, (returning starters=8)

• Physically strong compact offensive-line, all upperclassmen,  has 4 starters back and the head coach said this is the best and smartest oLline he’s had @Purdue!
• ’bout as close to Man blocking as you will see, all downhill on runs Left/Right. Will occasionally double-pull wide-side for 2 kick-out blocks.
• oLine will finish blocks right at or just beyond the whistle, Fosterites beware!
• talented at Wr and Te.
• super-soph Dee.Jay Knox is a baller at Tb. #1 in passing and rushing alike. He is the #1 jersey issue who is fumble prone same here as below.
• Less 2 throws (two pick 6’s @Marshall) this Purdue team is boiling right along at 2-zip!
• better than I expected at Rb, shifty and physical on film, with enough albeit not epic speed. NOT good in pass-protect however. Little fumble prone, at Rb too.
• Tons and I do mean metric tons of offensive variety alignments. Really liked the compressed Se/Fl per side look. Very well disguised.
• Lottsa rubbing some might say picking or hip-checking action here. Will throw to the whole field N-S and E-W. See a lotta 3 layer work on most any pass (Long, Medium, Short patterns alike)
• Lotta mental moving parts here. We need to be focused and on point assignment wise. And you can see why the slightly older/more-experience Sean will start @Mike-Lb, and quickly.
• Countering misdirection type plays. Again, gotta mind you keys here.
• Qb 6’6” 239 lb. Jr., Austin Appleby is INT friendly, though he’s got a really big arm. Purdue will take 40+ yard shots, too. Appleby had three 50 yard+ TD’s just last week. Looks like he’s got at least a 65 yard arm. However, almost a 1:1 ratio passer his entire career. Again; he can be picked.
• O has some Georgia Tech triple-point elements to it. Jet-sweep to the motion-man or Dive/Plunge to the single Hb, or Qb keeper. Even saw motion behind, the shotgun Qb pre-snap! Lotta quick/accurate reads needed here.
• Qb Appleby was clearly having back-troubles on film vs. Larry Bird State last week; could see him reaching for and stretching his lumbar spine in between plays.
• Very balanced offensively run v. pass. Tough to key pre-snap. 27th in total O.

Offensive  letter-grade(s):

Purdue Special Teams: (return)
Place-Kicker Paul Griggs has a very big or long-range leg. Might be the longest we face all year. Improved quite a bit as a Jr. last year, after having been basically .5oo for his career. Solid Kicker this Griggs kid. Coverage teams are both below average. Did see a hand-off between the 2-deep on a Purdue PR. Clearly they must really like #1 in this capacity here; although #1 (D.J. Knox) will fumble on PR’s as well as rushing attempts. KO returns are average, PR’s well below average. Punting is not that epic, 38 yards on average and only 110th in net punting. Purdue has used 2 Punter’s (Meadows and Schopper); that’s not a good sign. Ditto the fact that Purdue did fake a punt last week. The Boilmakers have already blocked one kick this campaign!

(Special Teams letter-grade: C+++, mostly for the long-range Kicker, as I did not see anything terrible or wowing alike here; could see some trickeration though)

X-factor(s):

• the biggest improvement that typically falls between week#1 and week#2 falls this week, as we finally get a full work-week to work with and improve. We shall see…
• Kicking edge goes to Purdue if this is a FG contest.
• weather: 80% chance of rain and 15-20 mph winds? Dang, low-scoring ugly game here we come!
• Hidden Yardage: sizable yellow laundry advantage early this season to Purdue. ’bout 35-40 yards worth if Purdue’s 18th place Penalty metrics hold true.
• Purdue is chasing in 3Q and 4Q stats, could speak to conditioning.
• Purdue is 113th worst in throwing INT’s and yet 18th best in intercepting passes and 3rd best in forcing fumbles! (somethings gotta give)
• major health edge to Purdue.

Illation, conclusion(s) and OPT digits:

the takeaway:
The takeaway here is…

With critical injuries at Mike-Lb and at Qb alike -that we just could not afford-  you just gotta expect a bump in the road somewhere along the way during the next three contests, 67% of which just so happen to be Away (games). As what I had penciled in as 3 very decent probability wins have now been R.A.T.T. erased and move over into the ubiquitous “maybe” column. As Purdue is a a whole helluva a lot closer to being 2-o than they are to being o-2. Therefore I will go ahead and predict that we are about to see 12 consecutive quarters of ugly football. Mid-20’s or less most likely for all four teams in the next fortnight and change. As Virginia Tech is gonna have to go Smith Barney and bow its wounded Mike-Lb and Pivot back and win these three games “…the old fashioned way” they are going to have to “earn it.”

***

As there is something to be said for a +5 T.O.P. (time of possession) advantage and 210% more T.F.L. (tackles for a loss) and 200% more sacks than your opponents have. Purdue must be doing something right; and most of the Boilmaker metrics really do seem to be trending in the right direction for Purdue fans. Or in other word, “yes”, Purdue can win this football contest, all the more so at home.

---

So with only ~40 shopping days until Halloween, let’s not loose our heads here, let’s play fundamentally sound, good, hard, physical mistake free, rock-solid Hokie football; as the best single unit(s) I see on film are both downlinemen, and both just so happen to belong to Virginia Tech –our o-line and d-line alike. This upfront edge will only be amplified in elemental weather or on any West Lafayette wet-track. That however will slow this scrum down all the more, and this will devolve into a defensive struggle or a 1-play day for either side.

Virginia Tech should win this football game, however Purdue can win this football game. The headier or more misQ free football team will win this game.

upset Index=42%

Virginia Tech=2o, Purdue=16

“LETS GO!“

“HOKIES!“

bourbonstreet**